Episode 1398 Scott Adams - Puppies and Rainbows Are the Decoy Topics For Today

foreign hey everybody it's time for puppies and rainbows yeah that's the decoy title for today we're trying to game the system with the algorithm because the algorithm will demonetize me if I have any controversial topics in it I don't have any controversial content I mean nothing that would get me booted off of social media but it's very controversial in its own modest way so uh before we do the simultaneous Sip and I know that's why many of you here um can we talk about Floyd Mayweather and Logan Paul getting ready to box what is happening with the world that Floyd Mayweather and Logan Paul even can be in the same ring it isn't one of them the best boxer in the world and the other one is Logan Paul it's good entertainment and I have to say that Logan Paul is a genius at getting publicity and I also have to say I was looking at the the video man he's doing a good job with his Fitness but you know what the you know what the big story is so uh I guess they're doing a little publicity thing the weigh-in or whatever it is where the the two potential boxers are uh you know basically doing a visual thing and Logan Paul said and I quote talking about the uh the the boxing match she said tomorrow I break the effin simulation and beat the greatest boxer in the history of the planet so even Logan Paul is describing the fact that he will be boxing the best boxer on the planet he says he must be living in a simulation what do you think of that so even Logan Paul is talking about living in the simulation now if you were him and you had the life that Logan Paul has had so far wouldn't you believe you lived in a simulation because I don't know a ton about Logan Paul but it looks like he just decides what he wants reality to be and then it becomes that right well let's let's have the simultaneous up to that you know and if you'd like to enjoy it all you need is a cup of mug or a glass of tanker Charles it's starting to canteen dragonfly vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dope immediate of the day the thing makes everything better a little oxytocin sprinkled in it's called the simultaneous Sip and it's going to happen now go ah Ah that's right you made it in time well the big news uh well before we get to the big news I love political pranks especially if they're funny now you saw the story about uh aoc's grandmother down in Puerto Rico and the AOC blamed president Trump for her grandmother still having a a sub-optimal situation down there after the disasters in Puerto Rico uh so after AOC complained about her grandmother's situation uh Matt Walsh uh the daily wire he did a Go.

Fund.

Me to raise money for her grandmother so it's funny because Matt Walsh is a uh you know right-leaning critic of AOC so so instead of complaining he just fixes her problem now the reason it's hilarious is because the Republican brand is more about fixing stuff and the Democrat brand is more about complaining about stuff now this may be just my own impression right but it feels like that it feels like one is about fixing stuff and one is about complaining about stuff so AOC complains about stuff and Matt Walsh fixes it he just fixes it except there's a wrinkle in the plan which is apparently uh somebody in aoc's family rejected the money so the Go.

Fund.

Me people took it down and took her money away so imagine being imagine being aoc's grandmother and she's having a bad time and then AOC who's doing great is complaining about her grandmother having a bad time and her grandmother is probably thinking you know you could probably fix some of this I'm just saying you're a AOC I'm your grandmother you might be able to fix some of my problems if you really applied yourself to it I I feel like she was thinking that you know I'm doing some mind reading now but uh then Matt Walsh comes along and fixes her problem here's a hundred thousand dollars it's already pledged right people actually put their credit cards in there they pledged a hundred thousand dollars so Grandma's problems are fixed and then Grandma finds out and I don't know if this fact is true but then Grandma finds out that somebody in her family decided to turn it down on her behalf well there's your hundred thousand dollars Grandma write down the crapper so as as political pranks go this was one of the best because number one it didn't cost him anything because the Go.

Fund.

Me ended up getting canceled the Democrats proved that they would shoot themselves in the foot rather than rather than solve a problem they would rather shoot themselves in the foot than solve a problem and you've never seen it more cleared cleanly laid out here's my problem oh okay here's a total solution completely done no ambiguity no no nothing's nothing's missing you needed some money here you go and then they took it away I mean you can't do a prank that works out better than this although it's kind of cruel for the grandmother and I wish he'd gotten her money I mean the prank worked the prank worked just as well whether she got her money or not so can she get her money I mean it feels like Grandma should get some money out of this she was part of the she was part of the the show all right so the Republicans had their uh convention last night and Trump was the the you know I guess the most interesting featured speaker and we're getting a sense now what the Republicans will be pushing in 2022 and Beyond for their main themes so I'm going to run by you what I think will be their main themes based on what they've said so far and let's judge them all right put your persuasion head on persuasion head on are these good ideas for Republican um you know political interests and it looks like these are the major themes number one uh Trump said that China is responsible for the virus and should pay 10 trillion dollars in reparations now when Trump says China should pay 10 trillion dollars in reparations is that good persuasion or bad judge's technique have I taught you anything well I won't wait for your answer because uh it's good it's really good persuasion Trump is just good at this you know you don't realize what good looks like persuasion wise until until he comes back into the headlines the moment Trump enters the headlines it's good persuasion again it's like it's been missing the whole time and then he comes in he goes well let me show you how to do this again all right you don't say China we think maybe you owe us something you don't say I don't know maybe we should look into this you don't say uh I think they're a great economic uh problems caused by China hand waving hand waving China China that's bad persuasion let me show you what good persuasion looks like China you owe us 10 trillion dollars that's good persuasion all right the the fact that it's a big round number is perfect it's perfect you can't forget 10 trillion how many of you will hear 10 trillion and never forget it for the rest of your life you probably remember that number for the rest of your life imagine any other number that you were to remember for the rest of your life good luck good luck come up with any number like a number that a politician says that you would remember for the rest of your life I'll bet 9-1-1 somebody says yeah maybe maybe uh nine uh justices of the Supreme Court but basically there's almost no such thing as a number that you remember forever this you know unless there's like 9 11 event or something so Trump has this amazing ability to just say 10 trillion sticks in your head it's an insanely big number feels like it could be in the neighborhood like your brain doesn't reject it your brain does not say it's too big it really doesn't but it's so big so here's the magic of Trump's approach how do you come up with a number that is insanely big and your brain still says yeah it's probably in the neighborhood it's pretty close he he took two things that can't fit together and he made them fit together and then your brain can't release on it because two things that don't fit together just were made to fit together you don't forget that how do you do that right he makes it look easy because you're saying to yourself I think you're making too big a deal about this he just threw out a big number no no he's so consistent with the way he does this right that's not an accident it's not just throwing out a big number this is designed it's designed in uh designed to persuasion and designed perfectly um the other thing that the Republicans are going after heart is critical race Theory remember Republicans like an enemy everybody likes an enemy in politics right but the Republicans their enemies are going to be China I give that an A plus for a technique critical race Theory that's going to get people to the polls right that's gonna that's gonna get people out of their chairs so they know the things that will get people to stand up and certainly within the Republican party if you say your kids are going to be brainwashed to think they're inferior that's going to get you to the polls all right the other enemy is Dr fauci Dr fauci is the face that the Republicans and Trump in particular uh they're going to put shauji's face on the idea that experts should be trusted in all cases or that the experts are always right and then and and he's also on the side of the let's say the overreaction or maybe over conservative say the Republicans approach to the to the pandemic uh what did he call Trump called uh fauci a radical Massacre a radical Massacre he wants multiple masks Etc now as soon as you heard that Trump said fauci is a radical Massacre you knew that was a keeper right once again Trump comes up with a phrase let's just add line he's a radical Massacre now everybody else has been talking about fauci why did it take Trump to come up with a nickname that's you know certainly going to be the headline today if it doesn't stick he's got that gift and then of course the Republicans will be going hard against what they would call election fraud so uh that looks to be their four big ones China critical race Theory fauci as a stand-in for all bad experts and then election fraud um apparently there was some booing when the Georgia Governor Brian Kemp and got up there and I think the Secretary of State uh rafsenberger got some booing too and that that is shown as a is being reported as evidence that Trump has control of the Republican party what do you think does Trump still have control of the Republican Party feels like it because he has control of the public he has control of so much of the public that the Republican Party pretty much is going to have to give him what he wants unless something changes um so you know all the all the news was about Trump this morning if you looked at uh CNN the entire top part of the news where all the important stuff is I think it was all Trump stories and and CNN was having a total Trump jasm this morning they're like Trump said what oh Trump gave somebody a nickname oh Trump accused China of 10 trillion oh so they're just having this massive serial orgasms over the fact that Trump's in the news again one of the big stories was uh Trump wearing his pants backwards what so on Twitter there are all these pictures of what appear to be Trump wearing his pants backwards now I don't believe he wore his pants backwards let me just say that but there is a photograph where his pants don't have a zipper it looks like it was it looks Photoshopped it looks like somebody just photoshopped the zipper out and the story was about the wrinkles in his bands and uh blah blah but uh I think it's photoshopped because I don't think he was wearing pants that have no zipper but that's what the photograph looked like um here is a hypothesis that I would need a fact check on so Twitter user Adam uh tweeted this at me this morning and I thought it's worth mentioning can somebody give me a fact check on this and it's a an innocent explanation for why Sunday morning voting might have been limited remember when you heard that the Republicans want to limit the voting on Sundays to you know certain hours and you said to yourself voter suppression they're trying to keep the churches from voting uh or moving their people to vote directly after church it's a trick to stop the black voters from being effective well one of the other explanations is and when you hear this it's going to make you mad that nobody told you this before now I think this is true but do me a fact check because I can't say I'm positive and it goes like this that in some places uh churches are also the polling place did you see that coming the church is also the polling place so you can't have the church being a church at exactly the same time and day that the church is a polling place so it turns out that this change might have at least had something to do with the fact that they don't want to make it hard to go to church give me a fact check on that is that true that the real reason for the law was to make sure that you had time to go to church and that they didn't use it as a polling place on Sunday morning when you wanted to use the church for a church is that all this was now I never believe anything is all it was right so even if there was a perfectly good reason it might also have an effect on you know suppressing some votes so I don't I don't think um okay I'm seeing people confirm it oh some John says yes my polling place is a church so doesn't it make sense that you should not make it illegal to do polling before 11 A.M because that's when you're churching is that the whole story I mean is is that actually the whole story because I don't know it doesn't feel like it could be the whole story it just feels a little too simple but did we go this far without that being a headline did nobody nobody brought that up until I saw it from a user on Twitter like that wasn't on CNN nobody on Fox News thought to mention that has anybody even heard this before how do we get this far in the in the topic that I've talked about in public I've talked about this topic in public and yet I heard this this fact or I guess is a fact this morning how how in the world I would consider myself maybe you can judge me too if you were to judge all the people in this country in terms of how well informed they are on political stuff where would you put me if you've watched me long enough would you would you say it's safe to say I'm in the top 10 percent of citizens who are well informed about politics would you give me that top 10 percent because I feel like if you just pay attention to it and it's part of your job and you do it every day you're probably the top 10 percent right now it might be higher but for the purposes of by a point if I'm in the top 10 percent and I didn't know about this Sunday churches as polling place thing until today how uninformed are we I mean seriously people I should be in the upper realm of well-informed people and I'm not even close if I were to judge how well-informed I am yeah and let's say well-informed means that you know enough about the context of things to make good decisions I'm not even close and if you think you're close maybe you should examine that because I do this literally I guess you could say I do it for a living you know at least part of what I do and I didn't know that it's like the most basic part of the story I think or it's or it's not true all right that's possible maybe it's not true and I still don't know how did we get this far into the biggest story in the country which is you know are people gaming the elections and I don't know that that basic fact about the Sunday morning voting how do I not know that by now I mean seriously all right um Twitter is having a little fight over there in Nigeria so what happened was looks like the president of Nigeria was uh blocked on Twitter uh because he said some things that violated Twitter's rules and he said I don't know some part of part of his population would be punished for bad behavior so Twitter blocks the president and then the president bans Twitter in all of Nigeria and then Twitter complained in a tweet of course so Twitter policy tweet said this we are deeply concerned by the blocking of Twitter in Nigeria access to the free and hashtag open internet is an essential human right in modern society we will work to restore access for all those in Nigeria who rely on Twitter to communicate and connect with the world hashtag keep it on do you see any uh Waterloo inconsistency is ready inconsistency that is highlighted by this story well let me point it out for you um Twitter bans people for speech that they consider over the line of their of their terms of use and they consider that entirely appropriate that Twitter makes the decision of what is allowed and what is not allowed Nigeria has adopted Twitter's hypo Theory that somebody can make decisions about what is allowed and what is not allowed because if Twitter can make decisions about what is okay for the public and not okay why can't others what is it did was there a constitution or was there some kind of law or natural law that says that Twitter is the only group that gets to decide what is okay and what is not okay for speech no no Nigeria can do it too so if Twitter could make those decisions and Facebook can make those decisions Nigeria you can make those decisions right be and when Nigeria does it you say whoa wait a minute because your your decision about what to allow and what not to allow is is a bad decision that's not the issue the issue is not whether it's a bad decision the issue is who gets to make it right the decision is not whether Twitter always makes the right decision about who's on and who's out the question is who gets to make it who gets to make it Nigeria says we get to make it do they yeah I guess they do Twitter says we get to make it do they yeah I guess they do unless somebody else makes it for them like in Nigeria now of course I would be in favor of Twitter winning this battle and getting access back to Nigeria so I'm definitely backing Twitter over Nigeria on this topic but I love how it highlights the problem with the philosophy which is if some people can decide what you can see and it's up to them and it's subjective then other people can do it too all right it's either all or none on that subjective censoring so I want to say this again because I don't understand why it's not the way it's framed nationally so apparently the U.S the Biden Administration and the U.S Department of Justice they've elevated this ransomware business to similar priority as terrorism now what they're doing is making sure that all ransomware reports are reported centrally and they'll have some kind of a group that will look at it more holistically to get a better idea of who's doing it and how to stop it and all that stuff now uh compliments I'll give my compliments to the Biden administration because I'm not a partisan in uh in all things I'm partisan in some things I guess everybody is but I tried not to be partisan on certainly you know any kind of National Defense things and if Trump had done this I would have said it's the right decision and Biden's doing it I'll also say it's the right decision to just make this terrorism I will go a little bit further than Biden's Administration and say that if we determined that we could find these people and let's say Russia wasn't willing to to uh to pick them up we should drone them so if we can find the bad guys the hackers and they happen to be in Russian territory we should kill them where they stand and we should send cop send copies of the mission to Putin show them all the video tell them everything we did completely transparently after the fact after we killed them so we should kill them and then we should build Putin Bill Putin we should send him the bill for killing his citizens now that's persuasion bad persuasion would be just to kill him on Russian territory because that would be an act of War right it's an active War to kill a Russian citizen on Russian territory I would think so instead of making it look like an act of War send them the bill send them literally and itemize the bill say Putin this is what you should have done right these are your guys you didn't do it we're going to kill your people and we're going to give you the bill and if you don't pay it we're shutting down all trade pay the bill now if you're story Putin is that these guys don't work for you then let's let's keep that story we'll take care of it for you we'll send you the bill you better pay it all right that's how I do it I don't think Biden will do that but you know I do not I would not rule out the fact that Biden's a badass on this stuff I don't know if he's going to be a badass on China he's got a little China problem but I do think Biden has at least a chance we'll give him a chance we'll see what happens I think Biden might push pretty hard on Russia we'll see uh El Salvador made a big move today so El Salvador's president he's going to send a bill to his Congress to make Bitcoin legal tender uh in their country so El Salvador will make it legal to accept Bitcoin and I think part of the reason for that is that people living abroad can send remittances back home more easily by Bitcoin now I don't know how many how many countries it will take or businesses to accept Bitcoin before it makes a big difference to the price but this feels like a big deal it did not however uh change the price of Bitcoin so I thought that Bitcoin might get a little pop on this news but it actually would last I checked it was down one percent we'll see if it makes a difference um do you know what our system of government has evolved into you know I feel sorry for the founders and it's a good thing that they stay dead you know the founders of this country because when they came up with the Constitution and they designed our system I'm not so sure somebody says preach I did the same with fentanyl yeah maybe so I put a put a drone attack on their fentanyl dealers and send them the bill that's not a bad idea by the way the sending the bill part is the persuasion because when you send the bill that's all anybody's going to talk about if you Bill them there's going to be a physical bill and people are going to look at it and they're going to look at the itemization so billing Putin for killing his his hackers or billing uh president XI for killing their fentanyl dealers changes the frame it changes it from we attacked your country to we just did you a favor you owe us and it's a big deal I think yeah we'll we'll never do anything like that but that's that's the idea of it um so we have a system in which whoever the leader of our country is always selected at this point the leader well even Congress I would say uh they're all selected based on who can game the election system the best uh there's plenty of documentation that shows that Biden probably won because the Democrats just did a better job at using the legal system to get a set of rules that favored their outcome so it didn't really probably have much to do with the voters preferences probably had a lot to do with who gained the system better now the complaints from the Democrats are that the Republicans are catching up and they're regaming and you know reaching they're changing the system so it might favor them but you do all this work to create a democracy and have these elections and basically the outcome is determined by the people who who make the rules so the the rule makers are the ones who decide who got elected um but on top of that when it's all said and done and you've elected your leaders then the next part of the next phase is ignoring the leaders because the only person that matters is Joe manchin because as long as things stay really close you know if Congress is really close to even Republicans and Democrats then the only person who has any power is a person who's willing to sometimes vote on the other side and that's Joe manchin so Joe manchin is the only smart person in Congress because he's openly told the world I could vote this way but I could also vote that way that's all you have to do when you run the country that's it somebody says Kristen Cinema maybe maybe another one yeah so uh I don't know what's wrong with everybody else in Congress all they have to do is sometimes vote for the other teams and then you're in charge of the country but I suppose you need to be more loyal to your party these days so Mansion is probably paying paying the price from his own party but it's a clever move I would have done the same thing if I were in Congress and I saw this opening the way Mansion does I would have said to myself wait a minute wait a minute can I understand this correctly all I have to do is sometimes vote for the other team and I can actually be running the country I would take that in a heartbeat I would be all over that I would run this country if they give it to me I mean basically it would be the whole country just handing you the keys and say could you can you decide for us because we can't really decide Joe manchin can can you just make up the decision for us you know we don't like all this representative democracy we'll just let you do it Joe manchin so I did a little uh reading up on the problem with meta-analyzes so I've mentioned that uh you know the story about Ivermectin the proposed potential therapeutic for covid that there is some suggestion that if you do a meta-analysis which is you sort of sum up all of the imperfect studies that the imperfections can be sort of smoothed out if you will speaking very approximately here uh if you add them all together and treat them as one big study even though they were individually imperfect studies and uh Andres backhaus who knows more about the stuff that I do had mentioned there's some problems with meta-analysis and I didn't know exactly what they were but here's here's the uh let's see the idiots version the idiot's version is that if you were to do a an analysis of studies so you're looking at a whole bunch of studies and you're deciding how to add them all together into one big ball you have a lot of decisions that you make um oh I see your comments uh are Crowley and I don't understand all that context but maybe I should uh so the question on the meta-analyzes is that if you're looking at which studies to include in your meta-analysis then it's automatically subjective so apparently one of the things you might do is you say we're going to do a meta-analysis of all the studies but of course we're going to leave out any of the pre-print stuff so the pre-print stuff is the stuff that hasn't been you know published in a major publication and peer-reviewed and all that it's like before that stuff happens so do you include that should you include stuff that's not quite far far enough along in the pipeline because if you decide not to include it you might get a different result than if you included it uh there might be other criteria where you say well I'm not going to include a study unless it's at least a certain size has to have a certain number of people or is done in a certain place or they looked at it in a certain way maybe in the beginning versus later on so my point is that the outcome of the meta-analysis is determined by the person who decides what to look at all right lose I see you saying I'm lost let me see if I can do this one more time clearly if you're going to put if you're going to look at a bunch of individual small studies to to kind of take their average direction if you will you still get to choose what's in the average and what you decide to put in there will determine what the average is so you can say to yourself I'm not going to include this kind of study because it's not the kind that looks good enough or you could say let's include everything because the whole point of it is to average out so the point is that you think you're doing an analysis but you're not it's a it's a an illusion of analysis because the illusion is that there's some kind of objective process going on when nothing like that happened in fact it was subjective because you chose what you were going to look at and it was the choosing what you look at that probably determined the result now here's the counter to the counter if if every one of the studies shows a strong effect in the same direction probably none of this matters right so if if a hundred percent of the studies showed that let's take an example I don't think this is true but if 100 of the studies showed that Ivermectin worked really really well it wouldn't matter which one you picked because they'd all be the same but if that were also true you wouldn't need a meta-analysis so here's what one expert said the situation where you don't need a meta-analysis is where it's so obvious without one that you don't need to do it but the moment it's not obvious the meta-analysis also doesn't work because that's when you put the subjectivity into it so the meta-analysis actually is logically illogical meaning that you either don't need it or it doesn't work those are the only two possibilities you don't need it because it's so clear without it or if it's murky it's really subjective and it doesn't work now what's the counter to that uh and I think in the Ivermectin study I believe the counter is that they're all in the same direction that the entire point of it is that there's nothing in the other direction so in that case a meta-analysis I think actually makes sense but you can't trust it because of its subjectivity or let me say this maybe you didn't need the meta-analysis so it fits that model you didn't need it because they're all in the same direction now fact check me on that I don't know if they're all in the same direction but I feel as if that was the main point is that they were in fact all in the same direction um and that was some of the few things that I needed to talk about today um I feel as though we're entering the summer where things are going to slow down a little bit and I would like to ask this question of you I told you yesterday that in my town there's some kind of a golden age situation going on my Main Street turned into a like a festival every weekend you know with that the street is closed to traffic and it's outdoor dining people have their masks off people are so happy they can't stand it um oh thank you Ron I'm going to mention that in a moment and uh is anybody else having the experience that their town is just insanely happy right now um gun control is racist says uh marusha that the Republicans should say that yeah um I'm not sure Republicans feel as comfortable as you might imagine saying that gun control is racist um but I see your point yeah I can see your point it's just that'd be a hard message for the Republicans to take all right back to your town um somebody says Santa somebody says yes in Texas no in Santa Cruz my town is happy Portland isn't very happy New Jersey not so good I see a yes from Karina um no I'm in Canada I'm sorry not in Canada Canada is sad uh all the Canadians are complaining here I'm gonna Canada is not too happy uh yes Jan says a lot more people around walking that's definitely true where is Jack ma yeah that's a good question Montana is great New York City sucks Connecticut good Atlanta definitely New York City is back baby um Wichita has been great for a while Philadelphia is the pits sorry Missouri yes all right well it looks like we're coming back folks we're coming back how about taking a moment take a moment for me to go back in time do you remember about this time last year people were afraid that the entire economy was going to fall apart all right and it didn't it didn't and we did rally and we beat this damn thing I mean I think it's beaten even if it lasts forever I mean we're back to nearly normal at this point and we're looking good so I feel like we all live through something amazing and I think we'll all be changed because of it and changed in lots of ways but I think the Golden Age is just going to impress itself upon us whether we like it or not and I so feel that the pandemic was some sort of system reboot that the pandemic did more than anything I've in my life to just change everything about the way you think about people you you had to re-engineer your entire life from scratch um and I would like to ask you this question how many of you are having trouble rebuilding your friend Network and social network is there anybody who lost their social network during this pandemic whose needs used to rebuild it and you're saying we're all my friends I need some friends now just want to say in the comments that if that's a common problem or not Kevin says oh we're getting a lot of yeses to that yep yep yep all right so I was going to do a micro lesson on that oh there's a lot of yeses wow I'm sorry about that so I feel I feel the same situation I feel like I have to uh intentionally rebuild rebuild my social network because it just completely shrunked and shrunk to the family um let me tell you a system for doing this I was going to do a micro lesson on my locals Subscription Service on how to make friends would you like that I'm going to give you a quick little lesson on how to make friends uh and I actually wrote it on my whiteboard over here which you can almost see I shouldn't have shown you that other one I guess um and here's the technique number one make you friends don't think of it as a goal think of it as a system it's the same process I use for everything a goal a goal approach would be uh I think I'm going to identify somebody I want as a friend and I'm going to try to make that person my friend that doesn't really work it's hard to just say well I I think I think you'll be my friend I'm going to make you a friend I don't ever see that work so that would be a goal approach and it just doesn't work here's the system approach it goes like this number one have defined interests become the person who cares about X now X is up to you could be politics could be a sport could be a hobby could be an interest could be a Cause find something to Define you so that when your friends describe you they say oh if you met Scott he talks about politics he plays tennis become a stereotype here's why as soon as you become known as the person who does X whatever X is then all of the other people who like X are drawn to you and they have a reason to talk to you and you have reason to talk to them and your friend will say hey I know you're interested in X you should you should meet my sibling who also likes X or my ex who likes X so be the moth be the flame that attracts The Moth don't be the moth be the flame be the person who says here is what I am and now I'm going to attract stuff so first of all have a defined interest that other people recognize and that will attract people of like interest so that's the first part of the system next be valuable be valuable you would like to live in a world in which friendship is based on some let's say um conceptual value that you'll just say you know I like people people are good I like Bob Bob's a good person Bob's my friend I'll tell you how a goal is different from affirmations in a minute um friendship is a transactional situation your family might not be in your family you might have something close to um you know complete love without any restrictions but friends are transactions now you don't want to think of it that way but I'm sorry it's just true it's always true your friends are people for whom you provide a value and they provide a value back if that's not happening get rid of your friend unless a sport I suppose they're giving you value and you're giving them nothing that'd be okay for you but it's only a friendship if you both know what you're getting and you're both delivering it for example you might be valuable because you're funny and people say I love being around a funny person you might be valuable because you're you're an empath and people say man when I have a problem I sure like talking to X you might be valuable because your home is a good one for getting together you might be valuable because you're an organizer you're the person who brings everybody together you might be valuable because you have lots of friends and people want to be your friend to have access to your network of friends but make sure you have a value if you're not offering a thing of value why would anybody be your friend seriously why would they be your friend you it's not because your your inner your inner you your soul is so good forget about that nobody can see your soul nobody can see your inner thoughts people can see what you do so do something valuable for the people you would like to be friends with if you can't do something for other people don't complain you don't have friends they need you to do something for them that's how it works so get over your your romantic Notions that friendship is based on some you know Connection in your soul it's not that at all it's just people have stuff in common who have an interest and a value that is an exchange that's all it's transactional but there's nothing wrong with that the the world has gone on forever exactly with this system you don't have to be the one who bucks it use the system yeah don't don't fight the system use it it's been tested for you know hundreds of thousands years um you should also either join groups or organize them so find a group of people who are doing the thing that you're interested in and join that group the best way to make friends is simply by doing the same stuff with people that you didn't know that well and then you get to know them you got something to talk about oh you do ax I do X let's talk about X and then you're on your way so if you can't join a group that is of interest to you be the organizer are you worried that if you're the organizer people will say no to you here's the trick don't say to one person would you like to do x with me because if you get turned down for that that feels kind of personal doesn't it would you like to go to a movie with me that's tough for some people to ask nobody likes to be rejected so don't do that instead be an organizer and say I'm thinking of going to movie X put out a message to your network does anybody want to go with me that's it I I'm going to do something on this day who would like to join me then you don't know who turned you down nobody has to answer it's just the people who want to join you say yes if you get nobody joining you nobody even knows nobody's going to know if you went to the movie they just know you put it out there that's all if they didn't go they didn't answer that's all they know so there's nobody turning you down and there's nobody saying yes well I mean somebody might say yes but so don't ask one-on-one organize a group put in an offer offer to host offer to create an event around something be the organizer and next thing is diversify and prune don't think that your process of making friends is to get some friends and then you're done no good your process of making friends should be a continuous process where you're adding new friends all the time and you're diversifying so that if you lose a friend ah you got 10 more you lose another friend you still got 10 more because you added a new friend what you don't want is to have two friends and then one of them gets pissed off at you and you lost fifty percent of your Social Network because you made one person mad right diversify 10 friends 20 friends 30 friends that's what you're going for and if you get to ten and you say to yourself well that's enough friends no because you need to prune friends too how many of your friends are just users they're they're just toxic are you getting rid of the toxic ones because they're taking your time you've got to get rid of the toxic ones and some and people can become toxic even if they didn't start that way so you got to get rid of the toxic ones and the only way you can get rid of toxic friends is to have Diversified your friend portfolio so that you can grab one and say ah toxic get rid of it and it doesn't even change the average you don't even notice it it's just better right so diversify grow your friends and prune viciously prune pruned viciously um and the other tip is there are people who are good organizers and connectors you probably know some if you know 20 people probably maybe only one of them or even fewer could be zero maybe one of them would be the person who knows lots of people and has parties and introduces you to people if you're going to put any interest into a person find one of those all right find one of those the organizer the person who has lots of friends and then how do you make that person your friend do you call them and say hey be my friend nope that doesn't work and plus they might say no you don't want to do that offer them something if there's somebody who's a good organizer have a party and invite them if you invite an organizer to three parties at your place there's a hundred percent chance and let's say the organizer goes three times to your place there's a hundred percent chance that you will get invited to their next party and that's the one that's the good one that's where all the people are because that's the organizer that's that's how you do it um you you find the people who are the highest value connectors you make sure you put more attention toward them than other people because they're the high value so somebody says I'm the toxic one then the other thing you ought to work on because that's that's a good comment is don't bother to make friends if you're an okay work on that if you know you're an or you know you're you're not very let's say generous to your friends your problem is not ability to make friends the problem is if you made friends accidentally you know your work friends or the people that you just met casually it doesn't matter if you're going to be an there's no there's no point all right so that is your uh your goal for today now the the reason that systems are better than goals is because a system is something you can do every day so what I just described is stuff you could be working on every day right join a group organize a group send a text to that organizer person just to you know remind them who you are that sort of thing and whereas a goal you know you might do nothing that day on your goal and you just feel depressed but the system you can just work every day to join a gym right there's something you can do every day join a gym people with common interests you'll probably run into something and then all your friends asked to borrow money well that is a very negative comment um any friends in any mafia organization that is a weird question now uh the question was asked what's the difference between an affirmation and a goal it's an excellent question and I like to put it this way a goal would be I'm going to get that promotion at work very specific right I'm going to get the promotion that just opened up at work an affirmation would be uh I will become wealthy the affirmation allows you to be wealthy in any way that it's not restrictive so that's what's good about it a goal would be I want to get that promotion at work you only have one thing what are the odds that everybody gets that one thing they want well not nearly as good as the odds of something good happening something better so your affirmation should be in the direction but not too specific so let's say you want to be in love a goal would be I will be in love with that person is that always a good idea or would it be better to say I will find love or I am loved or I'll have a robust social life anything like that let me tell you a real live situation that happened that makes me wonder about the simulation without getting into details the other day I was went into town and one of the people with me was talking about a certain other individual in her life uh uh and you know there'd been some some uh situation there and as she was talking about this one person in her life who was a problem that one person walked directly past us there was only one person we were talking about one person who was a problem to this one person I live in a pretty populated place right there are millions of people that live around here but as she was talking about that one person and was walking in a part of town in which neither of them would normally be that one person that she was talking about walked directly past us now how often does that happen it happens a lot right do you notice that things like that happen a lot now you're saying it's a small town but it really isn't because the entire time we were walking we saw nobody else we knew nobody so hundreds and hundreds if not thousands of people and saw nobody else that we knew except the one person we were talking about yeah and and you see people say yeah that happens to me it's one of those things that just makes you wonder about the nature of the world doesn't it happens a little too often now when uh Jake Paul I'm sorry Logan Paul when Logan Paul was talking about his upcoming fight with Floyd Mayweather um yeah and I guess that's coming tomorrow and Logan Paul says I'm going to break the effin simulation do you think that Logan Paul has noticed that his own life doesn't seem to con correspond to anything that statistics would suggest because how in the world do you become Logan Paul in the first place I mean that's not easy but once you become him how in the world do you get a boxing match with the best boxer in the world like how in the world oh it's tonight people are telling me that that the boxing matches tonight now I get I get that it's an exhibition and I get that people would expect Mayweather to to win but how in the world does any of this happen I mean really what's my null hypothesis for the simulation I asked that a different way um yeah is it a cage match or a boxing match I'm not sure which but I gotta say um the reason that people like Logan Paul and Elon Musk and and even me I think the reason that we believe in the simulation is that our lives don't make sense does my life make sense those of you who have been watching me long enough let me just ask this question does my life make sense like based based on just what you've observed you know you don't even have to know my inner life just look at what I've done you know what I've been involved in the things I've touched does any of that make sense it kind of doesn't does it I see yeses and no's but in my mind it's too coincidental like it doesn't make sense unless we live in the simulation um do I have a null hypothesis for this simulation can you explain what you mean by that so tell me what you mean by a null hypothesis for the simulation you mean an alternative an alternative to it um all right so I'm asking you to ask the question in English as opposed to a science wonky talk will I be your friend absolutely I might I might not contact you often but I'm totally your friend oh prove it's not true well why didn't you just say that yeah how could How Could You disprove the simulation in other words is there something that is there something that if true would prove that the simulation uh is not true and I think the answer is that can't happen because if we're a simulation then the simulation would prevent it from being being disproved I mean would be built into the simulation that you can't disprove it so I don't think that the normal rules of disproving things could be applied to the rule of rules it will be the only time that you would not expect it to work I would think uh well somebody says can you prove something doesn't exist you could prove something's not true that could be done um but you can't always prove it doesn't exist for example I could prove you know that I don't have something in my hands right now but I can't prove that I won't be you know hit on the head with a rock next week so that's the worst example you ever heard just forget I forget I was talking all right um is truth singular I don't think so you can't prove reality yeah I mean by its nature you can't really all right do you have bad analogies forget all of my forget all them yeah I had air in my hands damn it you can't prove there isn't an invisible pink unicorn in the room with you yes all right that's all for now and I will talk to you tomorrow

foreign

hey everybody it's time for puppies and

rainbows yeah that's the decoy title for

today we're trying to game the system

with the algorithm because the algorithm

will demonetize me if I have any

controversial topics in it I don't have

any controversial content I mean nothing

that would get me booted off of social

media but it's very controversial in its

own modest way

so uh before we do the simultaneous Sip

and I know that's why many of you here

um can we talk about Floyd Mayweather

and Logan Paul getting ready to box

what is happening with the world

that Floyd Mayweather and Logan Paul

even can be in the same ring

it isn't one of them the best boxer in

the world

and the other one is Logan Paul

it's good entertainment and I have to

say that Logan Paul is a genius at

getting publicity and I also have to say

I was looking at the the video man he's

doing a good job with his Fitness but

you know what the you know what the big

story is

so uh I guess they're doing a little

publicity thing the weigh-in or whatever

it is where the the two potential boxers

are uh you know basically doing a visual

thing

and Logan Paul said and I quote talking

about the uh the the boxing match she

said tomorrow I break the effin

simulation

and beat the greatest boxer in the

history of the planet so even Logan Paul

is describing the fact that he will be

boxing the best boxer on the planet

he says he must be living in a

simulation

what do you think of that

so even Logan Paul is talking about

living in the simulation now if you were

him

and you had the life that Logan Paul has

had so far

wouldn't you believe you lived in a

simulation

because I don't know a ton about Logan

Paul

but it looks like

he just decides what he wants reality to

be and then it becomes that

right well let's let's have the

simultaneous up to that

you know and if you'd like to enjoy it

all you need is a cup of mug or a glass

of tanker Charles it's starting to

canteen dragonfly vessel of any kind

fill it with your favorite liquid I like

coffee and join me now for the

unparalleled pleasure the dope immediate

of the day the thing makes everything

better

a little oxytocin

sprinkled in it's called the

simultaneous Sip and it's going to

happen now go

ah Ah that's right you made it in time

well the big news uh well before we get

to the big news I love political pranks

especially if they're funny now you saw

the story about uh aoc's grandmother

down in Puerto Rico and the AOC blamed

president Trump for her grandmother

still having a a sub-optimal situation

down there after the disasters in Puerto

Rico

uh so after AOC complained about her

grandmother's situation uh Matt Walsh uh

the daily wire he did a GoFundMe to

raise money for her grandmother so

it's funny because Matt Walsh is a uh

you know right-leaning critic of AOC so

so instead of complaining he just fixes

her problem

now the reason it's hilarious is because

the Republican brand is more about

fixing stuff

and the Democrat brand is more about

complaining about stuff now this may be

just my own impression right but it

feels like that it feels like one is

about fixing stuff and one is about

complaining about stuff so AOC complains

about stuff and Matt Walsh fixes it he

just fixes it except there's a wrinkle

in the plan

which is apparently uh somebody in aoc's

family rejected the money so the

GoFundMe people took it down and took

her money away

so imagine being

imagine being aoc's grandmother

and she's having a bad time and then AOC

who's doing great

is complaining about her grandmother

having a bad time and her grandmother is

probably thinking you know

you could probably fix some of this

I'm just saying

you're a AOC

I'm your grandmother

you might be able to fix some of my

problems if you really applied yourself

to it

I I feel like she was thinking that you

know I'm doing some mind reading now

but uh then Matt Walsh comes along and

fixes her problem here's a hundred

thousand dollars it's already pledged

right people actually put their credit

cards in there they pledged a hundred

thousand dollars so Grandma's problems

are fixed

and then Grandma finds out

and I don't know if this fact is true

but then Grandma finds out that somebody

in her family decided to turn it down on

her behalf

well there's your hundred thousand

dollars Grandma write down the crapper

so as as political pranks go

this was one of the best because number

one it didn't cost him anything because

the GoFundMe ended up getting canceled

the Democrats proved that they would

shoot themselves in the foot rather than

rather than solve a problem

they would rather shoot themselves in

the foot

than solve a problem and you've never

seen it more cleared cleanly laid out

here's my problem oh okay here's a total

solution completely done no ambiguity

no no nothing's nothing's missing you

needed some money here you go

and then they took it away

I mean you can't do a prank that works

out better than this although it's kind

of cruel for the grandmother and I wish

he'd gotten her money I mean the prank

worked the prank worked just as well

whether she got her money or not

so can she get her money

I mean it feels like Grandma should get

some money out of this she was part of

the she was part of the the show

all right so the Republicans had their

uh convention last night and Trump was

the the you know I guess the most

interesting featured speaker

and we're getting a sense now what the

Republicans will be pushing in 2022 and

Beyond for their main themes

so I'm going to run by you what I think

will be their main themes based on what

they've said so far and let's judge them

all right put your persuasion head on

persuasion head on are these good ideas

for Republican

um you know political interests

and it looks like these are the major

themes number one uh Trump said that

China is responsible for the virus and

should pay 10 trillion dollars in

reparations

now when Trump says China should pay 10

trillion dollars in reparations is that

good persuasion or bad judge's technique

have I taught you anything

well I won't wait for your answer

because uh it's good it's really good

persuasion

Trump is just good at this you know you

don't realize what good looks like

persuasion wise until until he comes

back into the headlines the moment Trump

enters the headlines

it's good persuasion again it's like

it's been missing the whole time and

then he comes in he goes well let me

show you how to do this again all right

you don't say

China we think maybe you owe us

something

you don't say I don't know maybe we

should look into this you don't say uh I

think they're a great economic uh

problems caused by China hand waving

hand waving China China that's bad

persuasion let me show you what good

persuasion looks like

China you owe us 10 trillion dollars

that's good persuasion all right the the

fact that it's a big round number

is perfect

it's perfect you can't forget 10

trillion how many of you will hear 10

trillion

and never forget it for the rest of your

life

you probably remember that number for

the rest of your life

imagine any other number that you were

to remember for the rest of your life

good luck

good luck come up with any number like a

number

that a politician says that you would

remember for the rest of your life

I'll bet 9-1-1 somebody says

yeah maybe maybe uh nine uh justices of

the Supreme Court but basically

there's almost no such thing

as a number that you remember forever

this you know unless there's like 9 11

event or something so Trump has this

amazing ability to just say 10 trillion

sticks in your head it's an insanely big

number

feels like it could be in the

neighborhood like your brain doesn't

reject it your brain does not say it's

too big it really doesn't

but it's so big so here's the magic of

Trump's approach

how do you come up with a number

that is insanely big

and your brain still says yeah it's

probably in the neighborhood

it's pretty close

he he took two things that can't fit

together

and he made them fit together and then

your brain can't release on it because

two things that don't fit together just

were made to fit together you don't

forget that

how do you do that

right he makes it look easy

because you're saying to yourself I

think you're making too big a deal about

this he just threw out a big number no

no

he's so consistent with the way he does

this right that's not an accident it's

not just throwing out a big number this

is designed it's designed in uh designed

to persuasion and designed perfectly

um the other thing that the Republicans

are going after heart is critical race

Theory remember Republicans like an

enemy everybody likes an enemy in

politics right but the Republicans their

enemies are going to be China

I give that an A plus for a technique

critical race Theory

that's going to get people to the polls

right

that's gonna that's gonna get people out

of their chairs so they know the things

that will get people to stand up and

certainly within the Republican party if

you say your kids are going to be

brainwashed to think they're inferior

that's going to get you to the polls

all right the other enemy is Dr fauci

Dr fauci is the face that the

Republicans and Trump in particular uh

they're going to put shauji's face on

the idea that experts should be trusted

in all cases

or that the experts are always right and

then and and he's also on the side of

the let's say the overreaction or maybe

over conservative say the Republicans

approach to the to the pandemic

uh what did he call Trump called uh

fauci a radical Massacre

a radical Massacre he wants multiple

masks Etc now as soon as you heard that

Trump said fauci is a radical Massacre

you knew that was a keeper right once

again Trump comes up with a phrase let's

just add line he's a radical Massacre

now everybody else has been talking

about fauci why did it take Trump to

come up with a nickname that's you know

certainly going to be the headline today

if it doesn't stick

he's got that gift and then of course

the Republicans will be going hard

against what they would call election

fraud

so uh that looks to be their four big

ones China critical race Theory fauci as

a stand-in for all bad experts and then

election fraud

um apparently there was some booing when

the Georgia Governor Brian Kemp and got

up there and I think the Secretary of

State uh rafsenberger got some booing

too and that that is shown as a is being

reported as evidence that Trump has

control of the Republican party what do

you think does Trump still have control

of the Republican Party

feels like it because he has control of

the public

he has control of so much of the public

that the Republican Party pretty much is

going to have to give him what he wants

unless something changes

um

so you know all the all the news was

about Trump this morning if you looked

at uh CNN the entire top part of the

news where all the important stuff is I

think it was all Trump stories

and and CNN was having a total Trump

jasm this morning they're like Trump

said what oh

Trump gave somebody a nickname oh

Trump accused China of 10 trillion oh

so they're just having this massive

serial orgasms over the fact that

Trump's in the news again one of the big

stories was uh Trump wearing his pants

backwards

what

so on Twitter there are all these

pictures of what appear to be Trump

wearing his pants backwards

now I don't believe he wore his pants

backwards let me just say that but there

is a photograph

where his pants don't have a zipper

it looks like it was it looks

Photoshopped it looks like somebody just

photoshopped the zipper out and the

story was about the wrinkles in his

bands and uh blah blah but uh I think

it's photoshopped because I don't think

he was wearing pants that have no zipper

but that's what the photograph looked

like

um

here is a hypothesis that I would need a

fact check on so Twitter user Adam uh

tweeted this at me this morning and I

thought it's worth mentioning can

somebody give me a fact check on this

and it's a an innocent explanation for

why Sunday morning voting might have

been limited remember when you heard

that the Republicans want to limit the

voting on Sundays to you know certain

hours and you said to yourself voter

suppression they're trying to keep the

churches from voting uh or moving their

people to vote directly after church

it's a trick to stop the black voters

from being effective

well one of the other explanations is

and when you hear this it's going to

make you mad

that nobody told you this before

now I think this is true but do me a

fact check because I can't say I'm

positive and it goes like this that in

some places uh churches are also the

polling place

did you see that coming

the church

is also

the polling place so you can't have the

church being a church at exactly the

same time and day that the church is a

polling place

so it turns out that this change might

have at least had something to do with

the fact that they don't want to make it

hard to go to church

give me a fact check on that is that

true that the real reason for the law

was to make sure that you had time to go

to church

and that they didn't use it as a polling

place on Sunday morning when you wanted

to use the church

for a church

is that all this was

now I never believe anything is all it

was right so even if there was a

perfectly good reason it might also have

an effect on you know suppressing some

votes

so I don't I don't think

um

okay I'm seeing people confirm it

oh some John says yes my polling place

is a church

so doesn't it make sense that you should

not make it illegal to do polling before

11 A.M

because that's when you're churching

is that the whole story

I mean is is that actually the whole

story

because I don't know

it doesn't feel like it could be the

whole story it just feels a little too

simple

but did we go this far without that

being a headline

did nobody nobody brought that up until

I saw it from a user on Twitter like

that wasn't on CNN

nobody on Fox News thought to mention

that has anybody even heard this before

how do we get this far

in the in the topic that I've talked

about in public

I've talked about this topic in public

and yet I heard this this fact or I

guess is a fact

this morning

how how in the world

I would consider myself

maybe you can judge me too

if you were to judge all the people in

this country in terms of how well

informed they are on political stuff

where would you put me

if you've watched me long enough would

you would you say it's safe to say I'm

in the top 10 percent

of citizens who are well informed about

politics would you give me that top 10

percent

because I feel like if you just pay

attention to it and it's part of your

job and you do it every day you're

probably the top 10 percent

right now it might be higher but for the

purposes of by a point

if I'm in the top 10 percent

and I didn't know about this Sunday

churches as polling place thing until

today

how uninformed are we I mean seriously

people I should be in the upper realm of

well-informed people and I'm not even

close

if I were to judge how well-informed I

am

yeah and let's say well-informed means

that you know enough about the context

of things to make good decisions I'm not

even close

and if you think you're close maybe you

should examine that

because I do this literally I guess you

could say I do it for a living you know

at least part of what I do and I didn't

know that it's like the most basic part

of the story I think

or it's or it's not true

all right

that's possible maybe it's not true and

I still don't know how did we get this

far

into the biggest story in the country

which is you know are people gaming the

elections and I don't know that that

basic fact about the Sunday morning

voting how do I not know that by now

I mean seriously

all right

um

Twitter is having a little fight over

there in Nigeria so what happened was

looks like the president of Nigeria

was uh blocked on Twitter uh because he

said some things that violated Twitter's

rules

and he said I don't know some part of

part of his population would be punished

for bad behavior so Twitter blocks the

president and then the president bans

Twitter in all of Nigeria

and then Twitter complained in a tweet

of course so Twitter policy tweet said

this we are deeply concerned by the

blocking of Twitter in Nigeria access to

the free and hashtag open internet is an

essential human right in modern society

we will work to restore access for all

those in Nigeria who rely on Twitter to

communicate and connect with the world

hashtag keep it on

do you see any uh

Waterloo inconsistency

is ready inconsistency that is

highlighted by this story

well let me point it out for you

um

Twitter bans people for speech that they

consider over the line of their of their

terms of use

and they consider that entirely

appropriate

that Twitter makes the decision of what

is allowed and what is not allowed

Nigeria

has adopted Twitter's hypo Theory

that somebody can make decisions about

what is allowed and what is not allowed

because if Twitter can make decisions

about what is okay for the public and

not okay

why can't others what is it did was

there a constitution or

was there some kind of law or natural

law that says that Twitter is the only

group that gets to decide what is okay

and what is not okay for speech

no no Nigeria can do it too so if

Twitter could make those decisions and

Facebook can make those decisions

Nigeria you can make those decisions

right be and when Nigeria does it you

say whoa wait a minute because your your

decision about what to allow and what

not to allow is is a bad decision

that's not the issue

the issue is not whether it's a bad

decision

the issue is who gets to make it right

the decision is not whether Twitter

always makes the right decision

about who's on and who's out the

question is who gets to make it

who gets to make it Nigeria says we get

to make it

do they

yeah I guess they do

Twitter says we get to make it do they

yeah I guess they do

unless somebody else makes it for them

like in Nigeria now of course I would be

in favor of Twitter winning this battle

and getting access back to Nigeria so

I'm definitely backing Twitter over

Nigeria on this topic but I love how it

highlights

the problem with the philosophy which is

if some people can decide what you can

see

and it's up to them

and it's subjective

then other people can do it too all

right it's either all or none on that

subjective censoring

so I want to say this again because I

don't understand why it's not the way

it's framed nationally

so apparently the U.S the Biden

Administration and the U.S Department of

Justice they've elevated this ransomware

business to similar priority as

terrorism

now what they're doing is making sure

that all ransomware reports are reported

centrally and they'll have some kind of

a group that will look at it more

holistically to get a better idea of

who's doing it and how to stop it and

all that stuff now uh compliments I'll

give my compliments to the Biden

administration because I'm not a

partisan in uh in all things I'm

partisan in some things I guess

everybody is but I tried not to be

partisan on certainly

you know any kind of National Defense

things and if Trump had done this I

would have said it's the right decision

and Biden's doing it I'll also say it's

the right decision

to just make this terrorism

I will go a little bit further than

Biden's Administration and say that if

we determined that we could find these

people

and let's say Russia wasn't willing to

to uh to pick them up we should drone

them

so if we can find the bad guys the

hackers and they happen to be in Russian

territory we should kill them where they

stand

and we should send cop send copies of

the mission to Putin

show them all the video

tell them everything we did completely

transparently after the fact after we

killed them so we should kill them

and then we should build Putin Bill

Putin

we should send him the bill

for killing his citizens

now that's persuasion

bad persuasion would be just to kill him

on Russian territory

because that would be an act of War

right it's an active War to kill a

Russian citizen on Russian territory

I would think

so instead of making it look like an act

of War send them the bill

send them literally and itemize the

bill say Putin this is what you

should have done

right these are your guys you didn't do

it we're going to kill your

people and we're going to give you the

bill and if you don't pay it

we're shutting down all trade

pay the bill

now if you're story Putin is that these

guys don't work for you then let's let's

keep that story

we'll take care of it for you we'll send

you the bill you better pay it

all right that's how I do it I don't

think Biden will do that but you know I

do not I would not

rule out the fact that Biden's a badass

on this stuff

I don't know if he's going to be a

badass on China he's got a little China

problem

but I do think Biden has at least a

chance we'll give him a chance we'll see

what happens I think Biden might push

pretty hard on Russia we'll see

uh El Salvador made a big move today

so El Salvador's president he's going to

send a bill to his Congress to make

Bitcoin legal tender

uh in their country

so El Salvador will make it legal to

accept Bitcoin and I think part of the

reason for that is that people living

abroad can send remittances back home

more easily by Bitcoin now

I don't know how many

how many countries it will take or

businesses to accept Bitcoin before it

makes a big difference to the price but

this feels like a big deal it did not

however

uh change the price of Bitcoin

so I thought that Bitcoin might get a

little pop on this news but it actually

would last I checked it was down one

percent we'll see if it makes a

difference

um do you know what our system of

government has evolved into

you know I feel sorry for the founders

and it's a good thing that they stay

dead you know the founders of this

country because when they came up with

the Constitution and they designed our

system I'm not so sure

somebody says preach I did the same with

fentanyl yeah maybe so I put a put a

drone attack on their fentanyl dealers

and send them the bill that's not a bad

idea by the way the sending the bill

part is the persuasion

because when you send the bill that's

all anybody's going to talk about

if you Bill them there's going to be a

physical bill

and people are going to look at it and

they're going to look at the itemization

so billing Putin for killing his his

hackers or billing uh president XI for

killing their fentanyl dealers changes

the frame it changes it from we attacked

your country to we just did you a favor

you owe us

and it's a big deal

I think yeah we'll we'll never do

anything like that but that's that's the

idea of it

um so we have a system in which whoever

the leader of our country is always

selected at this point

the leader well even Congress I would

say uh they're all selected

based on who can game the election

system the best

uh there's plenty of documentation that

shows that Biden probably won

because the Democrats just did a better

job at using the legal system to get a

set of rules that favored their outcome

so it didn't really probably have much

to do with the voters preferences

probably had a lot to do with who gained

the system better now the complaints

from the Democrats are that the

Republicans are catching up and they're

regaming and you know reaching they're

changing the system so it might favor

them

but you do all this work to create a

democracy and have these elections and

basically the outcome is determined by

the people who who make the rules so the

the rule makers are the ones who decide

who got elected

um

but on top of that

when it's all said and done and you've

elected your leaders then the next part

of the next phase is ignoring the

leaders because the only person that

matters is Joe manchin

because as long as things stay really

close you know if Congress is really

close to even Republicans and Democrats

then the only person who has any power

is a person who's willing to sometimes

vote on the other side and that's Joe

manchin

so Joe manchin is the only smart person

in Congress because he's openly told the

world I could vote this way but I could

also vote that way

that's all you have to do when you run

the country

that's it

somebody says Kristen Cinema maybe maybe

another one yeah so

uh I don't know what's wrong with

everybody else in Congress all they have

to do is sometimes vote for the other

teams and then you're in charge of the

country

but I suppose you need to be more loyal

to your party these days so Mansion is

probably paying paying the price from

his own party

but it's a clever move I would have done

the same thing if I were in Congress and

I saw this opening

the way Mansion does

I would have said to myself wait a

minute wait a minute

can I understand this correctly all I

have to do is sometimes vote for the

other team and I can actually be running

the country

I would take that in a heartbeat

I would be all over that

I would run this country

if they give it to me I mean basically

it would be the whole country just

handing you the keys

and say could you can you decide for us

because we can't really decide Joe

manchin can can you just make up the

decision for us you know we don't like

all this representative democracy we'll

just let you do it

Joe manchin

so I did a little uh reading up on the

problem with meta-analyzes

so I've mentioned that uh you know the

story about Ivermectin the proposed

potential therapeutic for covid that

there is some suggestion that if you do

a meta-analysis which is you sort of sum

up all of the imperfect studies

that the imperfections can be sort of

smoothed out if you will speaking very

approximately here

uh if you add them all together and

treat them as one big study even though

they were individually imperfect studies

and uh Andres backhaus who knows more

about the stuff that I do had mentioned

there's some problems with

meta-analysis and I didn't know exactly

what they were but here's here's the uh

let's see the idiots version

the idiot's version is that if you were

to do a an analysis of studies so you're

looking at a whole bunch of studies

and you're deciding how to add them all

together into one big ball

you have a lot of decisions that you

make

um

oh I see your comments uh are Crowley

and I don't understand all that context

but maybe I should

uh so the question on the meta-analyzes

is that if you're looking at which

studies to include in your meta-analysis

then it's automatically subjective

so apparently one of the things you

might do is you say we're going to do a

meta-analysis of all the studies but of

course we're going to leave out any of

the pre-print stuff so the pre-print

stuff is the stuff that hasn't been you

know published in a major publication

and peer-reviewed and all that it's like

before that stuff happens so do you

include that

should you include stuff that's not

quite

far far enough along in the pipeline

because if you decide not to include it

you might get a different result than if

you included it

uh there might be other criteria where

you say well I'm not going to include a

study unless it's at least a certain

size has to have a certain number of

people or is done in a certain place or

they looked at it in a certain way maybe

in the beginning versus later on

so my point is that the outcome of the

meta-analysis is determined by the

person who decides what to look at

all right lose I see you saying I'm lost

let me see if I can do this one more

time clearly

if you're going to put if you're going

to look at a bunch of individual small

studies

to to kind of take their average

direction if you will

you still get to choose what's in the

average

and what you decide to put in there will

determine what the average is

so you can say to yourself I'm not going

to include this kind of study because

it's not the kind that looks good enough

or you could say let's include

everything because the whole point of it

is to average out

so the point is that you think you're

doing an analysis but you're not

it's a it's a an illusion of analysis

because the illusion is that there's

some kind of objective process going on

when nothing like that happened in fact

it was subjective because you chose what

you were going to look at and it was the

choosing what you look at that probably

determined the result now

here's the counter to the counter

if if every one of the studies

shows a strong effect in the same

direction

probably none of this matters right so

if if a hundred percent of the studies

showed that let's take an example I

don't think this is true but if 100 of

the studies showed that Ivermectin

worked really really well

it wouldn't matter which one you picked

because they'd all be the same

but if that were also true you wouldn't

need a meta-analysis

so here's what one expert said

the situation where you don't need a

meta-analysis is where it's so obvious

without one that you don't need to do it

but the moment it's not obvious

the meta-analysis also doesn't work

because that's when you put the

subjectivity into it

so the meta-analysis actually is

logically illogical

meaning that you either don't need it or

it doesn't work those are the only two

possibilities you don't need it because

it's so clear without it

or if it's murky it's really subjective

and it doesn't work

now

what's the counter to that uh and I

think in the Ivermectin study I believe

the counter is that they're all in the

same direction

that the entire point of it is that

there's nothing in the other direction

so in that case a meta-analysis I think

actually makes sense

but you can't trust it because of its

subjectivity or let me say this maybe

you didn't need the meta-analysis

so it fits that model you didn't need it

because they're all in the same

direction now fact check me on that I

don't know if they're all in the same

direction but I feel as if that was the

main point is that they were in fact all

in the same direction

um

and that

was some of the few things that I needed

to talk about today

um I feel as though

we're entering the summer where things

are going to slow down a little bit and

I would like to ask this question of you

I told you yesterday that in my town

there's some kind of a golden age

situation going on my Main Street turned

into a like a festival every weekend you

know with that the street is closed to

traffic and it's outdoor dining people

have their masks off people are so happy

they can't stand it

um oh thank you Ron I'm going to mention

that in a moment and

uh is anybody else having the experience

that their town is just insanely happy

right now

um

gun control is racist says uh marusha

that the Republicans should say that

yeah

um I'm not sure Republicans feel as

comfortable as you might imagine saying

that gun control is racist

um but I see your point yeah I can see

your point it's just that'd be a hard

message for the Republicans to take all

right back to your town

um somebody says Santa somebody says yes

in Texas no in Santa Cruz my town is

happy

Portland isn't very happy

New Jersey not so good I see a yes from

Karina

um

no I'm in Canada I'm sorry not in Canada

Canada is sad

uh all the Canadians are complaining

here I'm gonna Canada is not too happy

uh

yes Jan says a lot more people around

walking that's definitely true

where is Jack ma yeah that's a good

question

Montana is great New York City sucks

Connecticut good Atlanta definitely New

York City is back baby

um Wichita has been great for a while

Philadelphia is the pits sorry Missouri

yes

all right well it looks like we're

coming back folks we're coming back how

about taking a moment

take a moment for me to go back in time

do you remember about this time last

year

people were afraid that the entire

economy

was going to fall apart all right

and it didn't

it didn't

and we did rally

and we beat this damn thing I mean I

think it's beaten even if it lasts

forever I mean we're back to nearly

normal at this point and we're looking

good

so I feel like we all live through

something amazing and I think we'll all

be changed because of it and changed in

lots of ways

but I think the Golden Age

is just going to impress itself upon us

whether we like it or not and I so feel

that the pandemic was some sort of

system reboot

that the pandemic did more than anything

I've in my life to just change

everything

about the way you think about people you

you had to re-engineer your entire life

from scratch

um and I would like to ask you this

question how many of you

are having trouble rebuilding your

friend Network and social network is

there anybody who lost their social

network during this pandemic whose needs

used to rebuild it and you're saying

we're all my friends I need some friends

now

just want to say in the comments that if

that's a common problem or not

Kevin says oh we're getting a lot of

yeses to that yep yep yep

all right so I was going to do a micro

lesson on that oh there's a lot of yeses

wow I'm sorry about that so I feel I

feel the same situation I feel like I

have to uh intentionally rebuild rebuild

my social network because it just

completely shrunked and shrunk to the

family

um

let me tell you a system for doing this

I was going to do a micro lesson on my

locals Subscription Service on how to

make friends would you like that I'm

going to give you a quick little lesson

on how to make friends

uh and

I actually wrote it on my whiteboard

over here which

you can almost see

I shouldn't have shown you that other

one I guess

um and here's the technique

number one make you friends don't think

of it as a goal think of it as a system

it's the same process I use for

everything a goal a goal approach would

be uh I think I'm going to identify

somebody I want as a friend and I'm

going to try to make that person my

friend

that doesn't really work it's hard to

just say well I I think I think you'll

be my friend I'm going to make you a

friend

I don't ever see that work

so that would be a goal approach and it

just doesn't work here's the system

approach it goes like this

number one have defined interests

become the person who cares about X now

X is up to you could be politics could

be a sport could be a hobby could be an

interest could be a Cause

find something

to Define you so that when your friends

describe you they say oh if you met

Scott he talks about politics he plays

tennis

become a stereotype here's why

as soon as you become known as the

person who does X whatever X is then all

of the other people who like X are drawn

to you and they have a reason to talk to

you and you have reason to talk to them

and your friend will say hey I know

you're interested in X you should you

should meet my sibling who also likes X

or my ex who likes X

so be the moth be the flame that

attracts The Moth

don't be the moth be the flame be the

person who says here is what I am and

now I'm going to attract stuff

so first of all have a defined interest

that other people recognize and that

will attract people of like interest so

that's the first part of the system next

be valuable

be valuable you would like to live in a

world in which friendship is based on

some let's say

um conceptual value that you'll just say

you know

I like people

people are good I like Bob Bob's a good

person Bob's my friend

I'll tell you how a goal is different

from affirmations in a minute

um

friendship is a transactional situation

your family might not be in your family

you might have something close to

um you know complete love without any

restrictions but friends are

transactions now you don't want to think

of it that way but I'm sorry it's just

true it's always true your friends are

people for whom you provide a value and

they provide a value back if that's not

happening get rid of your friend

unless a sport I suppose they're giving

you value and you're giving them nothing

that'd be okay for you but it's only a

friendship if you both know what you're

getting and you're both delivering it

for example you might be valuable

because you're funny

and people say I love being around a

funny person you might be valuable

because you're you're an empath and

people say man when I have a problem I

sure like talking to X you might be

valuable because your home is a good one

for getting together you might be

valuable because you're an organizer

you're the person who brings everybody

together you might be valuable because

you have lots of friends and people want

to be your friend to have access to your

network of friends but make sure you

have a value if you're not offering a

thing of value why would anybody be your

friend

seriously why would they be your friend

you it's not because your your inner

your inner you your soul is so good

forget about that nobody can see your

soul nobody can see your inner thoughts

people can see what you do

so do something valuable

for the people you would like to be

friends with if you can't do something

for other people don't complain you

don't have friends

they need you to do something for them

that's how it works so get over your

your romantic Notions that friendship is

based on some you know Connection in

your soul it's not that at all it's just

people have stuff in common who have an

interest and a value that is an exchange

that's all it's transactional but

there's nothing wrong with that the the

world has gone on forever exactly with

this system you don't have to be the one

who bucks it use the system

yeah don't don't fight the system use it

it's been tested for you know hundreds

of thousands years

um

you should also either join groups or

organize them

so find a group of people who are doing

the thing that you're interested in and

join that group the best way to make

friends is simply by doing the same

stuff with people that you didn't know

that well and then you get to know them

you got something to talk about oh you

do ax I do X let's talk about X and then

you're on your way so if you can't join

a group that is of interest to you be

the organizer

are you worried that if you're the

organizer people will say no to you

here's the trick

don't say to one person would you like

to do x with me

because if you get turned down for that

that feels kind of personal doesn't it

would you like to go to a movie with me

that's tough for some people to ask

nobody likes to be rejected so don't do

that instead be an organizer and say I'm

thinking of going to movie X put out a

message to your network does anybody

want to go with me

that's it I I'm going to do something on

this day who would like to join me

then you don't know who turned you down

nobody has to answer

it's just the people who want to join

you say yes if you get nobody joining

you nobody even knows

nobody's going to know if you went to

the movie they just know you put it out

there

that's all if they didn't go they didn't

answer that's all they know so there's

nobody turning you down

and there's nobody saying yes well I

mean somebody might say yes but

so don't ask one-on-one

organize a group put in an offer offer

to host offer to create an event around

something be the organizer and next

thing is diversify and prune

don't think that your process of making

friends is to get some friends and then

you're done

no good

your process of making friends should be

a continuous process where you're adding

new friends all the time and you're

diversifying so that if you lose a

friend ah you got 10 more you lose

another friend you still got 10 more

because you added a new friend

what you don't want

is to have two friends and then one of

them gets pissed off at you and you lost

fifty percent of your Social Network

because you made one person mad right

diversify

10 friends 20 friends 30 friends that's

what you're going for and if you get to

ten and you say to yourself well that's

enough friends no because you need to

prune friends too

how many of your friends are just users

they're they're just toxic

are you getting rid of the toxic ones

because they're taking your time

you've got to get rid of the toxic ones

and some and people can become toxic

even if they didn't start that way so

you got to get rid of the toxic ones and

the only way you can get rid of toxic

friends is to have Diversified your

friend portfolio so that you can grab

one and say ah toxic get rid of it and

it doesn't even change the average you

don't even notice it it's just better

right so diversify grow your friends and

prune viciously

prune pruned viciously

um

and the other tip is there are people

who are good organizers and connectors

you probably know some if you know 20

people probably maybe only one of them

or even fewer could be zero maybe one of

them would be the person who knows lots

of people and has parties and introduces

you to people

if you're going to put any interest into

a person

find one of those all right

find one of those the organizer the

person who has lots of friends and then

how do you make that person your friend

do you call them and say hey be my

friend nope

that doesn't work and plus they might

say no you don't want to do that offer

them something

if there's somebody who's a good

organizer have a party and invite them

if you invite an organizer to three

parties at your place

there's a hundred percent chance and

let's say the organizer goes three times

to your place there's a hundred percent

chance that you will get invited to

their next party and that's the one

that's the good one that's where all the

people are because that's the organizer

that's that's how you do it

um

you you find the people who are the

highest value connectors you make sure

you put more attention toward them than

other people because they're the high

value

so somebody says I'm the toxic one then

the other thing you ought to work on

because that's that's a good comment is

don't bother to make friends if you're

an

okay

work on that

if you know you're an or you

know you're you're not very let's say

generous to your friends your problem is

not ability to make friends

the problem is if you made friends

accidentally you know your work friends

or the people that you just met casually

it doesn't matter if you're going to be

an there's no there's no point

all right so that is your uh your goal

for today now the the reason that

systems are better than goals is because

a system is something you can do every

day

so what I just described is stuff you

could be working on every day right join

a group organize a group

send a text to that organizer person

just to you know remind them who you are

that sort of thing and whereas a goal

you know you might do nothing that day

on your goal and you just feel depressed

but the system you can just work every

day to join a gym right there's

something you can do every day join a

gym people with common interests you'll

probably run into something

and then all your friends asked to

borrow money well that is a very

negative comment

um

any friends in any mafia organization

that is a weird question

now uh the question was asked what's the

difference between an affirmation and a

goal it's an excellent question and I

like to put it this way a goal would be

I'm going to get that promotion at work

very specific right I'm going to get the

promotion that just opened up at work

an affirmation would be uh I will become

wealthy

the affirmation allows you to be wealthy

in any way

that it's not restrictive so that's

what's good about it

a goal would be I want to get that

promotion at work you only have one

thing

what are the odds that everybody gets

that one thing they want well not nearly

as good as the odds of something good

happening

something better

so your affirmation should be in the

direction but not too specific so let's

say you want to be in love

a goal would be I will be in love with

that person

is that always a good idea or would it

be better to say I will find love

or I am loved or I'll have a robust

social life

anything like that

let me tell you a real live situation

that happened that makes me wonder about

the simulation

without getting into details the other

day I was went into town and one of the

people with me was talking about a

certain other individual in her life

uh uh and you know there'd been some

some uh situation there

and as she was talking about this one

person in her life who was a problem

that one person walked directly past us

there was only one person we were

talking about one person who was a

problem to this one person I live in a

pretty populated place right there are

millions of people that live around here

but as she was talking about that one

person and was walking in a part of town

in which neither of them would normally

be

that one person

that she was talking about walked

directly past us

now how often does that happen it

happens a lot right do you notice that

things like that happen a lot now you're

saying it's a small town but it really

isn't

because

the entire time we were walking we saw

nobody else we knew

nobody

so hundreds and hundreds if not

thousands of people and saw nobody else

that we knew

except the one person we were talking

about

yeah and and you see people say yeah

that happens to me it's one of those

things that just makes you wonder about

the nature of the world doesn't it

happens a little too often now when uh

Jake Paul

I'm sorry Logan Paul when Logan Paul was

talking about his upcoming fight with

Floyd Mayweather

um yeah and I guess that's coming

tomorrow

and Logan Paul says I'm going to break

the effin simulation

do you think that Logan Paul has noticed

that his own life doesn't seem to con

correspond to anything that statistics

would suggest

because how in the world do you become

Logan Paul in the first place

I mean that's not easy but once you

become him

how in the world do you get a boxing

match with the best boxer in the world

like how in the world oh it's tonight

people are telling me that that the

boxing matches tonight now I get I get

that it's an exhibition and I get that

people would expect Mayweather to to win

but how in the world does any of this

happen I mean really

what's my null hypothesis for the

simulation I asked that a different way

um

yeah is it a cage match or a boxing

match

I'm not sure which but I gotta say

um

the reason that people like

Logan Paul and Elon Musk

and and even me

I think the reason that we believe in

the simulation is that our lives don't

make sense

does my life make sense

those of you who have been watching me

long enough let me just ask this

question

does my life make sense like based based

on just what you've observed you know

you don't even have to know my inner

life just look at what I've done

you know what I've been involved in the

things I've touched does any of that

make sense

it kind of doesn't does it

I see yeses and no's but in my mind

it's too coincidental like it doesn't

make sense

unless we live in the simulation

um

do I have a null hypothesis for this

simulation

can you explain what you mean by that so

tell me what you mean by a null

hypothesis for the simulation you mean

an alternative an alternative to it

um

all right so I'm asking you to ask the

question in English as opposed to a

science wonky talk

will I be your friend absolutely

I might I might not contact you often

but I'm totally your friend

oh prove it's not true well why didn't

you just say that

yeah how could How Could You disprove

the simulation in other words is there

something that is there something that

if true

would prove that the simulation uh is

not true and I think the answer is that

can't happen

because if we're a simulation

then the simulation would prevent it

from being being disproved I mean would

be built into the simulation that you

can't disprove it so I don't think that

the normal rules of disproving things

could be applied

to the rule of rules it will be the only

time that you would not expect it to

work I would think

uh

well somebody says can you prove

something doesn't exist you could prove

something's not true

that could be done

um

but you can't always prove it doesn't

exist

for example I could prove you know that

I don't have something in my hands

right now

but I can't prove that I won't be you

know hit on the head with a rock next

week

so that's the worst example you ever

heard just forget I forget I was talking

all right

um is truth singular I don't think so

you can't prove reality yeah I mean by

its nature you can't really

all right do you have bad analogies

forget all of my forget all them yeah I

had air in my hands damn it

you can't prove there isn't an invisible

pink unicorn in the room with you

yes

all right that's all for now and I will

talk to you

tomorrow