Episode 1922 Scott Adams - Red Wave Blues And Signals Everyone Missed. Persuasion Filter - ON

it'll be okay settle down it will all be fined I promise and if you'd like to take what might be a bad day for some of you if you'd like to uh make the best of it well you came to the right place I'm going to explain it all and so you will go away from this uh this encounter knowing exactly what went wrong are you ready well if you'd like to take it up to the highest level of understanding all you need is a couple of my girl glass of tanker Chelsea starting the canteen trucker flaska vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure it's the dopamine the other day the thing makes everything better except the midterms it's called the simultaneous but it happens now go ah yeah two sniffs in an exhale oh don't you feel better now a little bit all right I'm gonna lift your spirits and make everything better maybe we'll see I don't know if you heard there was uh an election last night um I think Ben Shapiro summed it up best in a tweet as he was watching the uh results come in he said from Red Wave to Red Wedding now if you don't watch Game of Thrones that meant nothing to you if you do watch Game of Thrones pretty darn clever the Red Wedding was a bloody massacre in that um can somebody confirm something for me before I get ripped apart today I need I need you to be my memory I believe I never predicted a red wave is that true or do I have false memory about my own performance go true mostly jerusal he says yeah yeah I couldn't I couldn't remember if there was any time I did but my memory was never being confident it was going to happen I was never confident it was going to be a red wave and I'll tell you why because once again the persuasion filter just sees things different than the fact filter so I was never feeling it I never once felt a red wave like in my bones I saw the same thing you saw I saw the experts I saw the polls I never really felt it never really felt it so I'm not surprised at all let me ask you how many of you are surprised at the result I was completely open to this going either way yeah yeah all right well we'll talk about all of this um so let's see if we can learn from our mistakes okay let's be the only people in the internet who can learn from our mistakes and as I tweeted this morning if you believe the experts uh uh the non-redway is a surprise right any anybody who believed the experts was surprised today how have the experts done in the last few years what would you say have the experts been nailing it bat in a thousand doing real good if you would bet against the experts on literally everything how would you have done suppose you didn't even know what the didn't even know what the issues were you weren't paying attention to anything and you just cast a bet against the consensus of the experts just every time on covid on Politics on the economy just every time how would you do you you would have had a positive record no it wouldn't be a CO it wouldn't be a coin flip it would not be a coin flip you would have probably a I don't know two-thirds success rate two and the three something like that yeah following the experts is a terrible idea lately maybe the worst it's ever been I don't know um if you believe that facts are more important than feelings how'd you do how are the facts of how the country is doing and if you believe the facts said oh there's all this crime and inflation in the economy if you thought the facts were going to tell you how the midterms would come out how'd that go didn't work at all did it completely non-predictive right so what was predictive was there anything that people used to predict that was predictive well it turns out yes yes it turns out that there was one frame for looking at this situation that was completely predictive you're gonna hate this you're gonna ate this what demographic group caused the win for the Democrats go what demographic group caused the win foreign not white women not white women it's women and it's not women it's young women right so young women of all types um who seem to be the dominant you know Factor right young women um have I ever told you what is the strongest form of persuasion what's the fear yeah there's nothing that persuades more than fear because fear you have to take care of first it's like oh well I don't need lunch if I'm going to be eaten by a lion so first I'll run away from The Lion and then I'll worry about lunch right now lunch is essential I mean eating's essential but not as essential as surviving so you can eat so fear is number one and there's nothing close somebody said sex I'll agree with you sex would be more persuasive than fear even fear but it doesn't really enter into politics but you're right so that that was actually a very insightful comment sex would actually be more persuasive than even fear you see yourself right people have sex even when it's risky so yes you're absolutely right if if sex had been part of the question like sexual relations not gender yeah it would have made a difference but politics it doesn't um all right so if fear is the most important persuasion Factor let me ask you this what demographic group based on science not not bigotry based on science not bigotry what group is the most susceptible to fear what group is easiest to scare yeah and this is not a sexist comment I had to go Google it because I didn't know and I just wondered if there was any difference and you Google it and all of the top results say the same thing yeah there's a big difference the the women's biology is such that they're easier to scare they have more fear about things now that makes sense doesn't it you understand that like if I walk out in public um I've said this before and it's even a little bit irrational I've never been afraid of a person isn't that weird now I've been afraid of you know a gun that the person had in their hands unfortunately I've looked down the barrel of a few guns I've been afraid of that but if it's just the person I'm not really afraid of somebody just because they're big right it's part of being male are you are there any men who are afraid of just being in public because there are men who are bigger or tougher looking that never even enters my mind oh you are you are now I'm not talking about going into a dangerous neighborhood of course you shall be fearful of that I'm talking about just you get on the bus and there's some big men on the bus would that scare you if you're not as big as them if you're male that wouldn't scare me I mean not even a little bit but if you're a woman do you have an actual risk you do yeah it's an actual risk so it makes sense biologically it's completely rational that those who are you know less able to inflict death on somebody would be more afraid of other people you know one of the benefits of being male is that we can kill anybody am I right you could be bigger than me but I could definitely kill you right I might have to wait till you turn around I might have to wait till you go to sleep but oh I could kill you I could kill you right it was every man could now women could kill you when you fall asleep too it's just they're less likely to do it by the way I saw a story in the news it was a woman who found nude pictures on her boyfriend or husband I think it was thinking of his husband and found nude pictures of you know some young looking hot woman on his computer and she ended up stabbing him she was so jealous she stabbed him and later she found out that the nude pictures on his computer were pictures of his wife when she was thinner so that was probably awkward later in the evening when they sorted that all out talk about an awkward day wow anyway so women can kill men too it's just they need a reason that was a reason she didn't kill him though she just stabbed him a few times um so yes it is scientifically true that young women who dominate the Democrat Party are easier to scare now so so number one since both sides are trying to scare their own side mostly you're talking to your own team right so you've got one team of dominated by older white men are are men are older white men easier or harder to scare than the average person older I'm not talking about elderly necessarily I'm just you know older mature older they're pretty hard to scare right yeah we're pretty hard to scare I'm in that group we're pretty hard to scare like actual scare you know we'll we'll be concerned about things like anybody would but it's kind of hard to scare us and irrationally so that is a that's a built-in Advantage all right now I'm going to go one level further who is easier to scare a man with high testosterone or low go and this is not bigotry this is science this this is only what science will support there's no speculation involved here yeah Low T people are easier to scare high tea people are braver now they might be braver to the point of stupidity uh let me be clear here I'm not saying men are awesome in high testosterone men are the best of all there's no quality judgment happening here I'm not I'm not trying to put anybody down I'm only talking pure science and if you Google it which I did you'll find that the higher your testosterone the less fear you have that's just sort of what that drug does to you right you put a little more testosterone in you get a little braver it's one to one now let me ask you this uh does the Democrat Party have high T men or low T men on average yeah I feel like it is sort of low T men who want to uh who want to be popular with women and they believe that women told them the truth that if they act sensitive they'll like them better do you know I I believe that for like 20 years that women have gaslighted me for almost 20 years when in my younger life because I got raised in the you know the feminist era so the feminist said you know to be a good male and not a piece of you should be in touch with your feminine side and you should be flexible and more and more like a woman I mean you know you don't have to be a woman but just be more in touch with your feminine side and that would make you a person that people are really going to like so yeah in in my younger days I thought you know if I give women everything they want I'm in just give them everything they asked for yeah and it won't be easy but I'm the kind of guy who's willing to do the extra work yeah I don't care that it's hard to get there oh you tell me if the path is hard but there's a good reward at the end I'll still take that path because I'm the kind of guy who will crawl through broken glass to get what I want which is true basically I'm unstoppable if I really want something but I was gaslighted so badly that I thought the way to crawl through grout glass was to give women what they asked for oh my God was I stupid oh my God like it took me years to figure out that was all a lie and none of that was like how people work like it was just completely off model for just anything just reality did not conform to any of that right your libido has ruled your life well of course it has am I supposed to apologize for that if your libido ruled your life it might not have worked out well but I wouldn't apologize for it that is literally how you were evolved you evolved so your libido would take over your brain I don't apologize for that it's neither good nor bad it's just how I evolved right I didn't have anything to do with the choices my ancestors made not my fault I just I just got here the way I got here all right what is uh the most predictive element I asked you what's the most persuasion element what's the most predictive thing in all the world the most predictive thing it never fails seriously yeah money follow the money works even when it shouldn't now the even when it shouldn't is the part that I'm adding to the conversation you've all heard follow the money blah blah blah right follow the money is just so obvious there's nothing to say about it it's just so obvious but what I'm having and I'm adding this aggressively is that follow the money works even when there's no reason it should like every part of your instinct says not this time this time is not going to be about the money because we have all these other big issues there's you know the the fate of the world you know it's honor it's Integrity it's the fate of the Democracy these are all so big it's not about the money this time and then it's always about the money right my understanding is that the Democrats spent better on uh close races is that confirmed can can anybody confirm that from the reporting today I saw one of the pundits say that the Democrat it was a republican who said it a republican said that the Democrats spent better in the close races so now you've got two factors that predicted the Democrats would do well Factor one fear is the biggest uh persuasion thing but here's the next thing all right here's the next Quiz which is more persuasive uh I will give you something you want or I will take from you something you value which one which one forms action more I'll give you something you asked for or I'll take from you something you value not even close not even close if you're going to take something you've got to fight you got to fight on your hands if you're taken right you don't take we're not a species that evolved to give up stuff you know we like stuff but there's lots of stuff we like and we're also used to not getting what we like right we're very used to not getting everything we like but man if I've got something and you try to take it away from me suddenly it's the most important thing in my life you're not taking my right so what did the Republicans say they would do for the Democrat women they said they'd take their elect us and we'll take away your rights that's how they heard it right because abortion now I'm not I'm not speaking for or against abortion so we're not talking about the policy I'm only talking about the persuasion now a lot of people said that that um abortion was not why they were voting a lot of people said like two or three percent said that's why they voted but two or three percent was the margin on all the tight races wasn't it two to three percent said abortion was why they voted you know they were kind of single issue voters two to three percent is all it takes that's the whole game I I mean you could easily make a story that abortion is the only thing that mattered at the same time the news is saying the opposite they're saying that only two to three percent said it mattered so it didn't matter isn't that upside down if two to three percent actually voted because of it that's the whole race so I don't know I mean I think that one's still a little bit Gray but you gotta you gotta at least wonder if that mattered all right what is something else that uh the Republicans were going to take away from the Democrats go what were the Democrats afraid of losing besides abortion democracy democracy yep they thought they were going to lose democracy now doesn't that sound ridiculous if you don't believe democracy was at risk that doesn't even register as you as a thing does it if you're a Republican and you know the January 6th stuff was all not even once did you think that democracy was at risk did you so you didn't take that seriously did you ever I didn't every time I heard it I'd be like okay that's nobody's going to take that seriously but I was sort of in my bubble wasn't I how many people would it take to take that seriously before the the red wave goes away not many if if five percent of Democrats believed they were going to lose the thing they valued the most Freedom democracy it would only take five percent of them to be afraid that they were literally going to lose it do you think that five percent of the Low T men who are Democrats were literally afraid of losing democracy I do I do I don't think most of them were seriously afraid about five percent yeah absolutely do you think that five percent of Republicans who had some fear of like losing a thing I don't think so I think they all thought they were going to get something Republicans all went into the midterm thinking yeah we're getting stuff but they weren't afraid of losing stuff were they now you could say yeah inflation you know losing their guns but gun control wasn't even an issue was it gun control just disappeared as an issue if the Democrats had pushed gun control as their number one issue what would have happened they were lost bigger yeah because that would be taking something away from Republicans what happens when you say we're going to take something away from Republicans they'll do anything to stop it because nobody wants to lose what they have right right so correct me if I'm wrong if you look at the demographics of the two groups you can see that fear would be more effective in one group and fear is the most important persuasion did the Democrats try to activate that fear did they tell you you're losing your democracy you're losing your freedom of your bodily autonomy yeah they did you as a republican take any of that seriously because you thought that's not going to work probably you didn't take it too seriously but that's because you didn't believe it right they actually believed they were going to lose these things now abortion's kind of a gray area because the states get to decide so maybe nobody will lose anything at least in terms of the majority but certainly they had the feeling that they lost something right if you're a Democrat it doesn't matter that it's up to the states they can't feel that what they feel is it's harder to get an abortion they feel that they lost something yeah and the January 6th thing probably did make it a little bit credible that they could lose their democracy um here's a big hidden Danger the polls the polls were unreliable right so the polls before the election didn't get it right what is more dangerous than the polls not agreeing with the outcomes of Elections that is like the most dangerous situation isn't it because you've got people who are wondering about the credibility of the election and at this point you know we're happy that Justice is blind we like it that Justice you know isn't the bigot Justice is blind but now we have democracy as blind democracy is blind because we don't have a system where we know what happens when the vote gets into the computers it's a little bit blind there but now we're blind because the polls don't even tell you okay if the outcome in the polls were close probably was a fair election but what if they're not close what if the polls say oh it's going to be a red wave and then the actuality is nothing even close at that point it's easy to rig elections because the public doesn't expect the polls and the outcomes to match the moment the public doesn't doesn't think polls and outcomes should match because they've seen enough examples where they don't kind of like a weather report right well you don't really expect the weather forecast for next week to be necessarily accurate you know might be better than 50 but you know your expectations are not that high well the good news and um I see on Twitter just the smallest amount of quibbling about you know some election Integrity stuff you know mostly just about Arizona Maricopa but I think Maricopa is the closest watched you know election segment in the whole country uh because especially because they had problems so I think there are plenty of people watching it and however that turns out it doesn't it doesn't affect most of the results one way or the other um but we survived and it looks like um we're not going to have a huge election Integrity problem would you say as of today does it look like there won't be any major risks to the democracy so far yeah all right now here are the uh reasons you're going to hear in the regular uh pundit Press today everybody's going to have to tell you why the results didn't come out the way you thought some people are going to say the quality of the candidate mattered but does the quality of the candidate matter every time I would argue that the quality of the candidate matters only if everything else doesn't right the quality of the candidate matters only if everything else doesn't matter so if you're if the control of the Congress is at risk then the quality of the candidate doesn't make any difference at all none when when the Democrats needed to get Trump out of office did the quality of the candidate matter nope didn't matter at all so everybody who says the quality of the candidate matters they're right unless there's some other thing that matters more now so which makes it almost worthless right isn't the Yogi Berra famous saying uh good pitching beats good hitting and vice versa is is that Yogi Bear or somebody else but the the thinking is that and let me say that again a good candidate can overcome almost any situation you know that's what Trump did he was a good candidate in the first election right but more money can overcome any candidate so there's an amount of money that can overcome any candidate but there's also a quality of a candidate that could overcome almost any money so when you see the pundit say well it's the candidate that matters the little recording in your head should say unless it's a close race and Congress is up for you know unless there's a lot of money you know blah blah blah blah yeah and also depends who you're running against right would fetterman have won against a more traditional candidate than Oz didn't get Oprah's endorsement now do you think that Oprah uh makes a difference when she makes an endorsement how much do endorsements normally matter sometimes they matter a little but I feel like their Oprah endorsement is like might be the only one that matters from a celebrity remember Oprah can sell books do you know who else can sell books by recommending them almost nobody almost nobody if anybody else could sell books like she does they'd all be doing it because that would give you some power or you could get some you know benefits from the books that are sold Etc but Oprah has an unusual ability to move her own audience and her own audience is who who is the audience for Oprah weapons women and probably younger ones I don't know if it's younger ones but might be all right um see I think Oprah actually mattered um I literally don't care who won I know you don't want to hear that I don't care at all and I told you that in advance you know why right I'm a one issue voter and nobody had a fentanyl plan that was good you know some of them were you know tighten up the Border but that's just basic stuff that's something you need to do it doesn't get anywhere close to stopping Fentanyl so if the Republicans don't have a anti-fental plan and the Democrats don't I don't give a which one of them won don't care at all honestly don't um but I'd like to give a shout out to Twitter user Dodger Dave Dodger Dave I know he follows me on Twitter but I don't know if you're watching this but Dodger Dave reported on Twitter today that he's been off of fentanyl for one year one year today so if anybody uh would like to congratulate him on Twitter please do he's going to need all the help he get that he can get um but this is a real accomplishment by the way yeah when you're somebody like you know he overcame odds to run for Senate and you won the Senate you're like hey that's a that's a strong person there you know Kerry Lake there's a strong person she's overcoming odds to you know maybe when we don't know yet but none of that comes close to Dodger Dave Dodger Dave got off Fentanyl this is the strongest guy you know right like I wouldn't want to be in a fight with Dodger Dave I wouldn't want to be in a contest with Dodger Dave where whoever could take the most pain was going to win the contest Dodger Dave's got the goods all right so he made it a year so keep going um Trump made a joke in a third of the country either pretended they didn't get it or wanted to act like they don't or don't know what a joke is so prior to the election Trump was asked if he would take you know credit for his candidates he endorsed winning yes they did and he said quote with a smile so you have to understand he said this with a clear smile that says I'm joking and he said well I think if they win meaning his candidates if they win I should get all the credit if they lose I should not be blamed at all and then later he you know he confirmed the point that everybody acts that way you know everybody acts that they take credit when they win and they take no responsibility when they lose and he made the point that that's what everybody does right but what he first answered it about himself what did the Democrats say oh my God the ego on that man the narcissism of them in that if he wins he takes credit but if he doesn't win he doesn't take credit my God the ego The Narcissist everything we thought about him was right to which I say he was mocking his own ego that was the joke the joke was he was making fun of himself that he would take credit for something that clearly you know might be a random occurrence that was obviously making fun of his own narcissism and they couldn't tell the difference or they pretend they couldn't but I saw a lot of comments where it really looked like they couldn't tell the difference they actually thought that was narcissism I've argued with you before that he's he might be closer to the opposite because he puts his ego out there where it's just trashed every day by his critics most people couldn't handle that but he kept so apparently he's got some kind of control over his ego where he can mock himself and he can still make the joke after the fact you know if his people had won he would have taken full credit and he would have done it with a smile and and those who knew him would have known oh he doesn't mean it or or maybe he does a little bit but but he knows he's having fun with it right you would know he was having fun with it somebody says but your record not good well your records not good you talking about me anybody who tells me my prediction record is not good means that they only know about some of my predictions generally that's all it means um I don't even know if my record is good but I know that the people who say it's bad are never aware of my actual record um Mike cernovich said this on Twitter today after the results are mostly in he said Trump has zero shot at 2024 General after tonight this is enough for debate uh I was around in 2015 when he had quote no chance and accurately said he'd win true statement and he threw the biggest inauguration event in 2017 but he says times change or or he changed or whatever but it's you know time to move on um what do you think let me let me pull you before I give you my opinion uh does Trump now have zero chance of winning because his he met he's going to get blamed for the midterms because he he promoted some candidates that lost and maybe it was their loyalty to him that was his main consideration and that's how it's going to be interpreted a lot of people saying zero okay now everybody who's at zero hold on for a second hold your answers for a second so everybody who says zero who would you vote for if he's running against a Democrat who would you vote for would you not vote for him because you'd vote for the Democrat how many of you will now vote for the Democrat no matter who it is if Trump is the other one nobody nobody yeah everybody who says Trump has zero chance totally wrong you're totally wrong yeah now I don't normally disagree with Mike cernovich you've probably noticed that right I'm going to agree with him most of the time but one thing one thing you need to know about him is he's one of the strongest persuaders in the country right his persuasion game his actual technical knowledge of how to do it is one of the best in the country so in the in the political context he's persuading as well as giving you his opinion and sometimes it's more persuasion and sometimes it's more opinion it's a little hard to know with people who are good at it it's a little hard to know exactly when they're doing what but um I think this is more persuasion than prediction would you agree because two years is a long time do you know it's a long time a week everything you know about everything could be done could be wrong in a week am I right everything we knew about the midterms was wrong today in 24 hours everything you knew about politics changed am I right everything you knew about politics just changed in one day so if you say that Trump can't win based on what's happening today I think that ignores the the function of time and what we've observed for quite a while now which is things can change radically and quickly and you know you don't you don't predict it so so yes he could win all right now here's the second question can win doesn't mean will win right can mean does not mean will if if De.

Santis primaried him which I'm not going to predict I don't predict it I don't rule it out but I don't predict it so remember I said that I don't rule it out but I don't predict it that's that's a hard one because you could imagine De.

Santis getting enough pressure that even if he had decided not to maybe he could change his mind you know good of the country it's the right time sort of thing but do you think he could primary uh Trump successfully go who would win in the primary dissentis or Trump De.

Santis or Trump in the primaries most of you are saying Trump it looks like about two-thirds or more saying Trump now it's evening out I'm just it's hard to tell just by the answers all right so it's mixed it's mixed uh here's the answer they both could win yeah I think that was not as obvious as anybody thinks they both could win the way that uh De.

Santis could win is to say I'm Trump without the uh the bad parts and then it's just over that it's just over now I'm not saying that's a true statement or that you should believe it because Trump does have them some things which are unmatchable right Trump is a little unmatchable in some categories of of things but if that if that was the pitch if De.

Santis says look I'll give you all the good of trump but without the downside I think he just walks to the nomination I think if he played it that way he just walks into the nomination honestly I don't even think it would be close but I don't think he would play it that way I think you'd play it more traditionally and then it's anybody's guess he already is yeah and the fact that our their elections are always close this was really that probably this was the greatest um affirmation of democracy that I've ever seen would you agree I I feel like yeah that our our system just totally showed itself as strong and once again you know big uh big uh Applause for the founders who hundreds of years ago built a system to last the test of time and it did so far so good I I think that our our Republic is the strongest it's been in a long time like right today this is actually a really really positive thing because not only did the Republicans uh find some humility but I think everybody did that the the one thing that everybody needed both the Republicans and Democrats and Scott needs this too and all of the public all the pundits right so I'm in this category I'm going to criticize you know what we all needed there's one thing we all needed a big old dose of humility that's what we all needed right we all needed to be a little bit wrong and just have it slapped in our faces right so everybody got to be a little bit wrong on this one here's how the Democrats are wrong the strongest governors one one easily right the governors who who handle things like Republicans and had real plans and you know real like solid policy things De.

Santis being one Abbott being another I guess what's his name in Georgia Georgia Governor is a camp yeah so those three governors are being held out as um good models so if you're if you're a Democrat you look at those three governors and you say oh and young young kids another example yeah four Governors let's say you would look at those governors and say oh every time somebody acts like a good Republican they win big how about that the people who actually act like real Republicans not crazy Republicans you're not extreme Republicans not not Marjorie Taylor green I'm not criticizing her I'm just saying that she's she's in that way right so if you're a Democrat you need to have some humility that when a republican acts like a Republican without the crazy they win hard right being a just a normal capable Republican governor and you don't just win you you win with like a punch it's like a win plus it's not even close but then you throw the crazy in and what happens not so easy right you throw in Dr.

Oz and he's not exactly a traditional Republican is he you're not quite sure what you're getting there because it's a little mix of stuff um a mix you know his background has some sketchy stuff according to people what's crazy about Oz is some of his uh let's say uh things he's promoted in his entertainment career now I don't necessarily think that should haunt him because that's a different kind of job but it is I think it does I think it I think it leads to the not serious feeling you look at De.

Santis and you do you say he's serious or not serious De.

Santis is as serious as a heart attack you look at Abbott is AVID a serious politician or not so he's serious that's a serious guy right uh right those are serious people but you look at Oz and as serious as he may be about politics at the moment you don't get the same feeling about him right it feels a little more opportunistic would you say a little opportunistic which is nothing wrong with that by the way if you're not opportunistic why aren't you you should all be opportunistic you know that's our system play it play it the way it was designed be opportunistic but it might not look good might not look good as a look yeah uh is masters done or does he still have a chance with what's uncounted is Blake Masters done that race hasn't been called to you right because there's still some small chance that the remaining votes go his way small chance not looking good all right um do you think that uh do you think that Trump made the quality of candidates not matter I think a little bit he did and what I mean by that is uh the what Trump did was maybe solidify the team play aspect more than anybody else did you could imagine or you know 20 years ago you could imagine a Republican or a Democrat just voting for the other team because they like that candidate it's easy to imagine a Democrat voting for Reagan right that's pretty easy to imagine and it worked but Trump came in and he basically you know made it a blood War so so being on the side of the the blood enemy that doesn't work the same right Reagan liked everybody and so it was okay to be on his team even if he didn't like 100 of what he was doing Trump is so polarizing that I think people just voted for their team so I think that the the team play nature of things just eliminated the quality of the candidate except remember you know good pitching beats good hitting and vice versa except where the candidate was so strong like the Republican Governors we mentioned where the candidate was so strong that nothing else mattered and people said oh okay I can get beyond that all right um uh Rasmussen um said that uh 25 of the people they polled say that the the late results that make them more confident that the election is fair 25 yeah so 25 say that when you don't immediately have a result like every country in the world can do that that that's probably an indicator that things are more secure than you thought 25 percent sometimes that's called like one quarter oh and why does that number keep popping up anyway here's the uh most uh unexpected but not really story of the day that has nothing to do with this but we'll get back to it uh remember Alan dershowitz was accused by one of the Epstein victim young women and the the victim young woman who has been accusing dershowitz of sexual impropriety four years today recanted her accusation she she fully recanted her accusation what yeah exactly exactly yeah I'm watching the comments over locals and the people are like what what the now does recanting your accusation mean that it wasn't true it doesn't right it doesn't doesn't mean it wasn't true but I'm going to Pat myself on the back for something if you don't mind all right when many of you were basically saying you know dershowitz is dead to you because of those accusations um I said I said he has an unusually strong defense and you better wait you better wait on this one because he's not hedging he wouldn't write at it he went at it like a maniac do you know how he defended himself he defended himself like an innocent person now remember he's smart enough to know how to play it psychologically and leave the right impression but he defended himself like an innocent person and and the claims that he made in his defense sounded so so weak that they they actually sounded real you know what I mean like if you made up a defense it might sound a little stronger but he had that yeah she did give me a massage but I left my Underpants off and you're saying that's not like the strongest defense but that's actually why it sounded real to me it sounded real to me because who would say that that's like the better defense would be we didn't have a massage right if you're just gonna lie you know maybe you'd lie differently now none of that says he was innocent so let me be clear I don't know I have no idea who did anything but I'll tell you dershowitz is the person who fights for your ability to be innocent until proven guilty that's who he is he fights for your ability to be innocent until proven guilty so I I returned the favor I returned the favor again has nothing to do with any knowledge I would have about who did or did not do anything how would I know but in our system in our system I'm going to favor the system over the individual results because you got to keep the system strong and this was one of those innocent until proven guilty things that I was kind of a Maniac about honestly like I didn't know which way it would go but I'm a total Maniac about the guy who helps keep your ability to be innocent until proven guilty that's who he is and he's very consistent about that always has been so I respect that and I return the favor which has nothing to do with any other thing he may or may not do done it's just about the system so um I hope I hope I hope this is the right outcome I hope but it's another reminder that everything you think is true no matter how sure you are that is true you don't really know don't really know um I gave a warning last night that I thought was going to be important but maybe it isn't which is the same morning I gave at 2020 which is everything you hear about maybe there's some impropriety in the election that 95 percent of it at least at least 95 percent of it would be total I'm still at that number yeah because we you've heard some things like oh what about this what about that I think it's all so far which is not to say there's no cheating I would never say that there's just no way to know but what you hear the things that go surfaced are 95 so if if you hear something that sounds really really credible about some election shenanigans it might be true but that shouldn't be your assumption you should start with the Assumption very unlikely but be open to the possibility be open to the possibility just don't believe in any Krakens like I did don't be a don't be a kraken believer be a kraken denier until until it's proven all right but it looks like there isn't so far I'm not seeing a lot of claims of fraud am am I looking in the wrong places is there anybody on television who's claiming fraud has Trump has Trump weighed in and said the election was rigged because Trump would have already said something would they because they're going to ask him Trump's going to be asked so somebody Carrie lake is saying something is suspicious uh I don't know what she's saying but here's what I'll bet without even knowing what she's saying I'll bet what she's saying is you know we need to be careful and take a look at this I'll bet she's not saying it's definitely rigged because she would be way too smart to say that right confirm that she's way too smart to say the election is rigged she is definitely smart enough to say we need to take a look at why things didn't go as planned and that's important you know the election was kind of you know botched right yeah so if she says the election was botched that's right if she says she got cheated on the victory that would be too far with what the information we have um all right um so here are all the different things you're going to hear from the pundits who got everything wrong up to this point they're going to say the good candidates won they're going to say spending was the difference the somebody say cheating I suppose some might say the rule changes some might say um the GOP had no Solutions did you notice that the GOP didn't have Solutions well it turns out they did they had this whole commitment to America thing today let me tell you what I remember from reading the commitment to America and now I'm done those are all the things I remember from my reading of the commitment to America do you know when I learned that there's a commitment to America document I learned that after the election all I do is watch the news that's all I do is watch the news all day I didn't know I didn't know the Republicans had a written plan did you yeah first year hearing of it now I feel like like I have this vague memory that Rick Scott had something but it was different from what the Republicans had as sort of a platformy thing but I just thought it was something generic platformy thing I didn't think it was anything serious Fox talks about it all the time do they I haven't heard any details what were the details uh refund police I don't know so my uh well here's one of my blind spots I had until right before the election I I sort of tuned into this on Election Day but not soon enough uh that the Republicans were not giving a positive story they were sort of assuming that you knew that they did a better job and because you could see that things were bad under the Democrats but I guess people were not making the leap from things are bad to Republicans have a better idea I think they do have a better idea but they didn't make the argument yeah and Rick Scott made them afraid that Social Security was on the on the line right now whether it was or not it was enough to get them afraid of it so what is the biggest persuasion fear Who had who had the better fear of persuasion the Democrats said um was it uh really about Trump how much of the election was really about getting rid of all Trump supporters it makes sure there's you know less chance that Trump would get elected probably some of it I I think I think people's minds are framed by Trump so that you can't not consider him it's impossible not to consider it uh how about uh the mega mega extremist claim made by Biden did it work the mega mega they're all extremists and and Marjorie Taylor green and you know those are the ones you have to watch out for I thought it wouldn't because it wasn't working on me like when I hear blah blah extremists I go blah blah blah I don't even care but remember the Democrats the demographic that is more Democrat is younger women and as we discussed in case you missed it science says very clearly that women are easier to scare they're easier to frighten so do you think that women were afraid of losing democracy and um the mega mega extremists and they'd lose their bodily autonomy and stuff probably yes and the Low T males again this is not a judgment statement I'm not saying there's something wrong with you because you have lower testosterone it's just different and but those differences do translate into you know mental States and actions uh how about uh apparently the Democrats are getting credit for their uh crazy sounding strategy of boosting the worst candidates on the Republican side so that the primaries were won by the work the worst you know extremists and then they lost their elections apparently that worked is that what happened is it did that happen with Oz was I was backed by the secret dark Democrat money yeah Marjorie Taylor Greene won as did probably a lot of the people who AOC and the squad all won by big numbers too the the people were in safe districts all one that has just more to do with the district um how about uh do you think the GOP stayed home because they thought they were going to win what do you think of the theory that Republicans didn't turn out because they were confident of winning I don't feel that I don't feel it yeah it's possible I could be persuaded but that wasn't the energy I was picking up I was picking up Republicans vote for fun and for a principal Republicans don't vote or not vote because it's convenient am I right in fact you could Define Republicans as people who are going to vote no matter how hard you make it they're gonna vote because it's important it's a principle right um I don't know if it's the same on both sides it might be but I don't see Republicans staying home because it rained yeah maybe all right um the best predictors in my opinion were follow the money and persuasion of fear the persuasion of losing something abortion rights bodily autonomy you know losing your democracy those those were a good good approaches by the Democrats it turns out um and it was it was a little bit invisible to me because that persuasion wasn't intended for me and it didn't work on me so I was a little bit um I was blinded by the fact it was designed for a certain demographic and it worked it worked on that demographic I think and then what about The High Ground maneuver that's that's the fourth thing that I talk about all the time which you you can never lose if you take The High Ground you win every conversation I'll give you an example we should do a no we should do B and then somebody else in the meeting says can we test both of those things cheaply and both the people go yes and then the smart person says well why don't we just test both of them and we'll do the one that works better That's The High Ground once you hear it you just stop arguing because you would sound like an idiot after you heard of The High Ground right was there any High Ground did anybody have The High Ground in this election well maybe a little bit maybe a little bit because I think The High Ground was protect the democracy it was but it does sound like the bigger principle doesn't it if I gave you a choice to get exactly the right candidates you want but you might lose democracy itself that's not a good deal for me right so preserving the system actually is a pretty good high ground and the Democrats have it they actually had The High Ground weirdly the low ground was I might get mugged on the street right I might get mugged on the street is real that's like freaking real that's a real immediate personal local fear but it's also not The High Ground it isn't The High Ground is the whole country that's just bigger than your little problem on the street so the Democrats have that they have The High Ground and uh January 6 was probably the key to to holding that now again I was a little bit blind to that because it didn't work on me right so that's the persuasion you miss when it doesn't work on you personally it was easier to see Trump coming because his persuasion was working on me you know what I mean if you can feel it it's easy to call it out but I miss this completely um Maricopa County what went wrong so the information we're getting is sketchy as hell which is that some of the machines were crashing some of the time because they couldn't handle the type of ink that was used on the ballots how many questions does that raise question number one you don't test the actual ballots with the actual machines before the election or do you just test a few and testing a few wouldn't have picked up these errors did they test the actual ballots or was there you know some production problem that they have to use you know cheaping for the for some of them I don't know so those are big questions we'll find out but could you game the system by giving some people ballots that had intentionally weak ink and giving the people that you knew would vote your way Bellas they had the proper rink could somebody game the system that way could you take legal ballots and replace them with weak Inc ballots could you if you were the printer if you were the printer of these ballots could you make two batches of ballots one that you sent to predominantly Democrat areas and one two predominantly Republican areas I don't know you could but here's the sketchiest part I heard about it the technicians visited all the machines it's now on Election Day you've got people inside the election machines okay there are people inside the election machines on Election Day that makes you feel comfortable doesn't it now I'm hoping that they have systems and processes to protect that very thing because you would expect on Election Day would be the day you would have the most technicians and the most machines for just ordinary reasons right so they must have some way to protect against the obvious danger of having anybody in the machine I don't know what it is but I'm hoping they have a process so probably that wasn't a problem probably not but does it raise any suspicion that they could tweak individual machines to a higher state of sensitivity and then they would work wait a minute if so if all of the machines were made the same but only some of them needed to be tweaked doesn't that mean that they were not the same machines that they were they had different settings because if the hardware is the same and the software is not the same and the only thing they changed was a setting that means they weren't using the same machines and that means I'm very curious if the ones that didn't have the right setting were in one kind of District versus another or one Precinct versus another somebody says it's not the tabulators it was the printers not the tabulators but the printers so is the system that when you vote it prints out your vote and then they take that printed vote and put it in a tabulator is that what's happening somebody says yes however was it the printer they adjusted or the tabulators what got it what got adjusted the tabulators or the printers the printers so somebody tabulous somebody changed the printer so they printed properly but it's the printer on the voting machine right if that if the vote gets printed out by the voting machine it's the voting machine itself that's rating the or that's the problem right okay I guess we have a whole bunch of questions so I I don't have enough detail to go much further but let me make the general point so whether it was the printers or the printer on the voting machine or the election machine counter no matter what it was no matter what it was the intention was they were all the same right the intention was everybody had the same equipment how can some of that equipment act differently how is that possible well one way would be if somebody put Bad Ink or not enough ink in some of the printers that would actually be a pretty you know normal reasonable thing some of them just add Bad Ink or bad printers but it could be the same printer just some of them weren't good uh listen to the printer expert uh who's the printer expert you have no standing to find out what happened yeah yeah maybe maybe there'll be no standing from a legal sense so there's no way to find out all right all all I'm saying is they have not eliminated the possibility of shenanigans would you agree with that that what we know so far has not eliminated Shenanigans from the possibilities set but there's but would you agree with the second part if the problem is the printers were not printing um let's say the same doesn't that sound like a normal problem like you know the whole thing is explained if all it is is that printers don't print the same everywhere that's everything we already know every one of you has a printer problem yeah but then the question would be this why do we never have this problem before why do we never have this problem before first time Evan we always use printers and printers suddenly went from functional to non-functional and why did they only become non-functional in the most important County all the other printers everywhere were fine just this one very important County had some bad printers in it a lot of them a lot of them got a lot of bad printers in there so here's here's what I believe I believe we're still in the fog of War so the the one thing we can all say about Maricopa is we don't know what happened would you agree with that we don't have enough information so the first thing we know is we don't have enough information the second thing we know is there is a perfectly normal explanation for what we're seeing doesn't mean it's true but it's perfectly normal yeah there was a problem with some printers in one area I mean that feels like something they could explain with normal stuff again we have questions why just this one area why didn't we ever have this problem before good questions but I wouldn't be surprised if they could be answered it could be as easy as let me just give you an example it could be easy as there's a procedure to put in a new ink cartridge before you start the election and in one place they didn't do it they they did some testing and they forgot to change the ink cartridges and then when it got toward the end the ink was light and then the reader didn't pick it up but everyone else just followed the procedure so they just didn't have that problem maybe now I'm not saying that's the answer I'm saying that it would be real easy to imagine a very normal human error situation right well but here's the thing um you could also determine whether it was a mistake that would favor one side but if the problem was simply that some machines didn't work could you know that would favor one side good could you be confident that your plan would work I don't know these are questions we must we must get to the bottom of um but I don't think the country is up in arms I feel like Maricopa no matter what happens there maybe we learned something maybe we get smarter but it's not like the end of the Democracy no matter what happens um and let's see that ladies and gentlemen is I believe the most useful and best live stream you're going to see today about the election now if you would like to track my influence on the world watch how the election results are covered today now I have the advantage of being able to go early in the day so sometimes you know if I just say the obvious thing other people will also say the obvious thing but it's not because of me people are everybody's going to say the obvious stuff so they're not copying me if they say obvious stuff but if you hear people talking about uh the demographic difference the fear persuasion you're taking something away persuasion or those things then maybe maybe that was my influence all right um all of the pundits and news people today are going to be struggling to say something new I just achieved that see if anybody else does so there's your challenge for the day so this this is this is my pitch to you for why you should watch my live stream it is my contention that I I gave you a take which you won't hear anywhere else unless they were influenced by me and I think that's what I had I add the take you haven't heard somewhere else which is not crazy by the way how did you like my take I guess I'll just ask you how you liked it what do you think of my take that I was blinded to the persuasion for all the obvious reasons I'm not the target of it and and because I'm not the target that's not a good excuse because I do know enough about persuasion I should have seen it I should have picked that up honestly but I think maybe I was picking it up subconsciously because remember I was very unique in not having a prediction about a red wave is there anybody else who is notable in the prediction world who also did not predict a red wave sticks sticks and Hammer is that true nay silver but his was based on data Michael Moore yep interesting all right let me ask you this did Michael Moore do it again I don't know if he was right on his reason because I think he thought uh I think he thought abortion was going to be the like a driving thing but he might have been right about that he might have been right that that two or three percent was all it took uh are you admitting you are lacking in Persuasion analysis in this case I missed the signals yes but but I don't think I missed them enough that I made the wrong prediction I I knew to not predict because there was just something about this situation that wasn't I I couldn't put my finger on it just wasn't something working but now after the fact it's it's a little clearer after the fact you know you're you're analysis could be a little bit better um but I would ask you this every time somebody is this wrong can you you know adjust to you believe in the future right if I had told you there was a red wave I would be pretty embarrassed today and I would I would probably have to tell you honestly that you should discount what I predict in the future but the fact that I was one of the few people who did not predict a red wave I feel like you should take that into consideration too oh you're right I wouldn't be embarrassed yeah yeah I I guess that was hyperbole yeah I don't really get embarrassed by anything but you get the point I would have been wrong um yeah all right even Jim cravers once right once in a while somebody says um now let me let me ask you this what happens if Carrie Lake loses so that's still possible Right or actually probable I think given her current uh situation if she loses what are the odds she wouldn't be the vice president pick for Trump now he'd still have to get through the primaries before that matters but what are the odds that that wouldn't happen now let me tell you a play that Trump could do that he won't but if Trump wanted to change his reputation from you know half of the country thinking he's the worst thing that ever happened to Earth here's how we could do it run for election with uh Carey Lake as his vice president win the election and resign win the election and resign and then Trump would give you the first female president and and he would be George Washington he would be George Washington he would walk away from Power after putting a woman in power just think about it imagine him being the person who put a woman in the presidency his own decision nobody else's his own personal nobody else in the world decided he personally could make her present and then he does it it'll never happen I agree it'll never happen but it's there it's there is free money he could retire as George Washington people would people would go nuts the heads would explode now I agree with you the people who like Trump like him because he's not like that he's just always Trump he's Trump today he's Trump tomorrow will be Trump next week and that's part of his appeal honestly so I don't think he can do that all right here's another way Trump could easily win the election but it also requires him to do something Trump isn't going to do all right but here's how easy it would be you know I have to be honest I may have pushed those vaccinations too hard and I apologize for that now you can still say it's up to you I got him I you know I did what I thought was the best thing to do but I have to admit that this didn't work out as well as I thought he he could actually just claim that that didn't work out the second thing he could do is admit that he's getting people all worked up about racism and and he wishes he had all he'd have to do to talk about border and the immigration is just stop saying they're sending their worst people will you just stop saying that like the first time you said it I feel like it was good provocation like it really you know brought all the energy to him and they'd fight over whether that was true or Hyperbole and blah blah blah blah maybe it kind of worked for him but at this point it just looks racist I don't think that's why he says it but he has to know by now how it sounds to the other team all he'd have to do is say you know what the people coming across the border are are like a gift to this country we should have more but we should do it the right way it's just so easy I mean he could win everything just by being uncharacteristically humble which isn't going to happen right but is it I find it fascinating to know how easily he could win everything the the all he'd have to do is just act normal for a while and even if it's acting he knows how to act so he could do it yeah and and all the people who say I'll never vote for him because of the thing he did or the thing he didn't do it all depends who he's running against if he runs against a Democrat you're going to be like ah damn it it's not my first choice but I don't want that Democrat over there so if he gets in the race he could definitely win the race I think getting in the nomination would be the hard part winning the race might be the easy part in the end but uh yes I would say this if Trump acts exactly like he's always acted he probably would lose to any Democrat what do you say if Trump acts the way he's always acted he would lose to any Democrat because he lost to Biden by acting that way if you lose to Biden whatever you did was the wrong thing to do but again what makes Trump trump is he doesn't change and there there is value in that there's value in knowing exactly what you're going to get and I kind of like that actually but it doesn't work in this situation right change is the only thing that would get him um elected only change and I don't think that's on his menu so there you go but did he lose fairly I don't know I'm going to say yes because in my opinion uh cheating is part of our election system and if the Democrats haven't cheated the Republicans and that made the difference they won they won because anybody who says that the Republicans aren't trying to cheat well you're just you're not a serious person somewhere there's a republican trying to cheat somewhere I don't know if there are more of them or fewer of them than Democrats but let's let's be adults it's a big country with a lot of people in it somebody's tried to cheat somewhere on both sides uh uniparty Theory I don't discuss uni party Theory because I don't take it seriously I I get the idea that they end up being similar they all want war they all want to raise your taxes I get that but I think it gets there through a variety of ways you know calling it The Unit party doesn't add much to the analysis will anybody primary Trump I think so no you I think Trump's going to have to get through uh I hope so actually I hope so I don't think I don't let me say this I don't think Trump should be the nominate and nominee without a primary what would you say because I think the Republicans need to sort that out don't they yeah normally you don't I mean if he were a sitting president I'd say no primary but given that he lost and he lost to Biden if you lose to Biden you have you have to primary and if you're people you recommended for the midterms didn't work out you have to primary now here's what's different today than yesterday if De.

Santis and Sonny was going to primary him you'd say well that's being kind of a dick and maybe you're not helping your party right what would you say today today it doesn't look like a dick move today it looks like saving the party right if De.

Santis said he was going to primary Trump he could say this is the last thing I wanted to do it's the last thing I wanted to do but it's the only way to save the party that's a really strong argument given that the person he's primary just lost to the worst candidate in the history of candidates whose name wasn't fetterman right if I primary Trump I would just say this he lost to Biden and then they say but what policies are you bringing and then I'd lean in and say he lost to Biden and then they say yes yes yes but what are you going to do with taxes and Ukraine and then I'd lean in and say he lost the Biden and I I'm not even going to give any more argument honestly he lost to Biden right no whatever you want to say about the you know propriety of the election and the the pandemic changed the election procedures and that made a difference yes yes it made a difference but he lost the Biden I don't know how you get past that right how do you compare Trump to De.

Santis in a primary they don't even compare do they because you know you know Democrats are going to be sort of or Republicans are going to be sort of automatic for a competent Republican all you need is somebody who isn't going to embarrass you and you get all the Republicans and unfortunately Trump embarrasses some Republicans so you just can't get those who who does De.

Santis embarrass nobody there's there's no embarrassment to factor so he just has to be solid and he gets 100 of Republicans but Trump can't do that Trump can't just do a solid job and get 100 of Republicans because people are kind of pissed he'd lose to cheating again I don't know I I'm optimistic that um that our elections are more watched than they've ever been uh and we don't have much of a complaint this morning except for the one one County that everybody's watching carefully so we'll see we we may be in good shape we may be in good shape Scott also believes the stripper loves him very optimistic fellow no I don't believe anybody loves me so that's sort of my general uh my Baseline I don't I don't mean you know in the political in the public world no I you know I know that uh many of you have a positive feeling but I mean my personal life like in my personal life I just assume nobody really loves me I just I'm not saying you should I don't think he has to do with any of my specific situations I just don't assume it I I just assume it's all transactional I I saw some people on social media who are saying that you know the way that men love women and the way that women love men is different and I have to say it it matched my own views I don't know if it's right but the idea is that um women love what men can provide it's a transactional conditional relationship and that's all it is whereas men fall in love with women they're just the love of the woman and so the woman can do kind of anything good or bad and it wasn't transactional in the first place so the good or the bad won't change your opinion about anything you're still still want to stay married whereas if the man doesn't provide the things then you know could I uh inform some of you idiots about what incel means can I can I show you in cell means involuntary involuntary do any of you idiots think that a rich healthy man in America can't get laid I'd like to see your opinion do you believe that a rich completely fit good BMI ordinary person in America do you think I can't get laid in 2022 say so all right so somebody says no all right here's how this works everybody who's healthy and has money can get laid if they're male I mean I don't I can't speak for women maybe it's the same right um but do you but do you buy that frame that men have to provide by the way Chris Rock was saying the same thing I think Chris Rock said the only people who are loved unconditionally are women dogs and children they're the only ones who get unconditional love and but men you you got to deliver so for men it's just what you're providing now when I said I don't assume that anybody loves me in my personal life that's what I meant that's what I meant I meant the moment I stopped providing the love would go away of course of course it would but I've never assumed differently have you is there any man here who thinks that they would still be loved if they withdrew all of their benefit from the person they think loves them now maybe if you had like an accident you know if if you had a tragic accident you couldn't do what you wanted to do then yes you know you probably would still be loved but she'd still have an affair because she would love the other guy better if maybe he could provide more so yes and and I find this really helpful I find this helpful uh I find it helpful to assume that men aren't loved because then you don't get disappointed right so one of the things that I get a lot of heat for is having two divorces to to which I say I wanted to get married it was good for a number of years and then when I didn't want to be married I changed the situation and you know so did the other person it's not it's not all about one person so I don't I didn't get married because I thought they would last forever I never said that do you know why I didn't think I would I would be married forever could be the reason why do you think I didn't ever believe I would be married forever because of the age difference because what I could provide was you know money and and comfort but also you know a physical part you know the physical intimacy as I aged it was a hundred percent likely I could not provide the physical intimacy and that by the time that happened whoever I was with would be rich by them just by the relationship so one so the the thing that I knew had to happen is that the things I was providing would be taken for granted because they would eventually be transferred in enough quantity that they could divorce me and be rich at the same time so my benefit of keeping them you know alive went to zero because they could do it themselves and they were already rich and any benefit I could bring from you know my awesome physical intimacy would eventually shrink to zero am I right what else am I providing my great personality there are plenty of guys with good personalities was that I'm so fun to be with that somebody just has to be with me in the room nope turns out there are plenty of people who are fun to be with in a room I didn't have anything so I said to myself on day one I'm bringing this amazing physical intimacy that uh that I provide a financial bubble that anybody would want a lifestyle of somebody who's a celebrity don't you think that some people sort of you know would like a little bit that their partner is a celebrity especially if it's a male yeah I mean they're all these little benefits things I could provide that other people couldn't provide but it was a hundred percent guaranteed from day one that what I could provide would shrink to zero so therefore since I believe in a transactional world at least we're involves men and women I knew that marriage was a rental and not a by Tone now if you thought marriage was a buy to own but you were in a similar situation to me well you missed the signs you missed the signals the signals were all there you weren't going to get younger but she was definitely going to get richer right it was all there you should have been able to predict it easily all right Judy says love is not transactional well as soon as uh your guy stops giving you stuff check in with me see how that worked out are you going to continue renting yeah I think renting is all that makes sense in from my age I'm at the age where every woman wants to marry me if she can stand me for five minutes do you know why why does every woman want to marry me if they can even stand me for five minutes right because I'm near death and I'm rich I'm near death and I'm rich that's like a really good deal transactionally that's something that most people would say you know this might suck for 10 to 15 years but if I could if I can if I could gut it out for 10 to 15 .

I'm rich I'm rich yeah so I'm very very popular so to the whoever it is who who said I'm an incel it's definitely not involuntary uh I could get laid three times a day it wouldn't take any effort whatsoever none all right um get another dog uh why would you leave your to your shitty new wife yeah who else is going to get it you might like your wife um someone as old as you yeah that's possibility too but two of those times will be with David what uh did anyone in particular help you change your mind to how you view women in relationships that's a good question uh now I can't think uh I don't believe there's any Guru or anything and by the way I don't have this is nothing new my my views on this are at least 25 years old but I definitely had different views when I was young as I explained early on early on I thought if I did what women said they want wanted of men that that would make them happy have any any of you ever fell for that if any of you men fell for that the women will tell you exactly what they want and then you say ah I just have to give them that and then they'll be happy you fall in for that trick yeah it took me decades to realize you know like my pattern recognition wasn't kicking in all the pattern was so so clear it takes you a while to realize that the operating system of women is to be perpetually unhappy because men think if I just solve this problem today I'll be good tomorrow they don't know they never catch on that tomorrow is a new problem so the the operating system then is to drain resources operating system of women is to drain resources for men by being dissatisfied that's what works within a relationship so dissatisfaction is a requirement of the system it's not today's problem that you're going to solve and once you realize that's unsolvable you realize that women are essentially toxic unless you have a combined objective to have children too strong the women are toxic to men unless you have a shared mission too strong if you do have a shared Mission it could work out great a shared Mission would be um you want to have kids you have the same lifestyle preferences you like your friends you like doing the same things lots of good reasons to be married now anything I say bad about relationships does not apply to all people I mean that's the thing we always get wrong the problem with marriage is we apply it which we think it applies to all people at best it works for 20 percent like really well it'll work you know well enough for more than 20 but 20 are killing it and the rest kind of struggling or wish they hadn't done it yeah now women are toxic to men unless they have a shared Mission and then the man doesn't mind the resources being deployed because that's where the man wants them to be deployed I I think I just red built the living hell out of Erica the excellent I'm just looking at your comments all right uh that ladies and gentlemen is all the red pilling and persuasion you need for today go watch the rest of the news and find out how much it sucks compared to the awesomeness that was this and goodbye to You.

Tube talk to you tomorrow

it'll be okay

settle down

[Laughter]

it will all be fined I promise

and if you'd like to take what might be

a bad day for some of you

if you'd like to uh make the best of it

well you came to the right place I'm

going to explain it all

and so you will go away from this uh

this encounter knowing exactly what went

wrong are you ready well if you'd like

to take it up to the highest level of

understanding all you need is a couple

of my girl glass of tanker Chelsea

starting the canteen trucker flaska

vessel of any kind fill it with your

favorite liquid I like coffee and join

me now for the unparalleled pleasure

it's the dopamine the other day the

thing makes

everything better

except the midterms it's called the

simultaneous but it happens now go

ah

yeah

two sniffs in an exhale

oh don't you feel better now

a little bit

all right I'm gonna lift your spirits

and make everything better

maybe we'll see

I don't know if you heard there was uh

an election last night

um I think Ben Shapiro

summed it up best in a tweet as he was

watching the uh

results come in

he said from Red Wave to Red Wedding

now if you don't watch Game of Thrones

that meant nothing to you

if you do watch Game of Thrones pretty

darn clever the Red Wedding was a bloody

massacre in that

um

can somebody confirm something for me

before I get ripped apart today I need I

need you to be my memory

I believe

I never predicted a red wave

is that true or do I have false memory

about my own performance go

true

mostly jerusal he says yeah

yeah I couldn't I couldn't remember if

there was any time I did

but my memory was never being confident

it was going to happen

I was never confident it was going to be

a red wave and I'll tell you why

because once again the persuasion filter

just sees things different than the fact

filter

so I was never feeling it

I never once felt a red wave like in my

bones

I saw the same thing you saw I saw the

experts I saw the polls I never really

felt it never really felt it

so I'm not surprised at all let me ask

you how many of you are surprised at the

result

I was completely open to this going

either way

yeah

yeah all right well we'll talk about all

of this

um

so let's see if we can learn from our

mistakes okay

let's be the only people in the internet

who can learn from our mistakes

and as I tweeted this morning if you

believe the experts

uh

uh the non-redway is a surprise right

any anybody who believed the experts was

surprised today

how have the experts done in the last

few years

what would you say have the experts been

nailing it bat in a thousand doing real

good

if you would bet against the experts on

literally everything how would you have

done

suppose you didn't even know what the

didn't even know what the issues were

you weren't paying attention to anything

and you just cast a bet against the

consensus of the experts just every time

on covid on Politics on the economy just

every time

how would you do

you you would have had a positive record

no it wouldn't be a CO it wouldn't be a

coin flip it would not be a coin flip

you would have probably a

I don't know two-thirds success rate two

and the three something like that yeah

following the experts is a terrible idea

lately

maybe the worst it's ever been I don't

know

um if you believe that facts are more

important than feelings how'd you do

how are the facts of how the country is

doing

and if you believe the facts said oh

there's all this crime and inflation in

the economy if you thought the facts

were going to tell you how the midterms

would come out how'd that go

didn't work at all did it

completely non-predictive right so

what was predictive was there anything

that people used to predict that was

predictive

well it turns out yes

yes it turns out that there was one

frame for looking at this situation that

was completely predictive

you're gonna hate this

you're gonna ate this

what demographic group caused the win

for the Democrats go what demographic

group caused the win

foreign

not white women not white women

it's women and it's not women it's young

women

right so young women of all types

um

who seem to be the dominant you know

Factor right

young women

um

have I ever told you what is the

strongest form of persuasion

what's the fear yeah there's nothing

that persuades more than fear because

fear you have to take care of first it's

like oh well I don't need lunch if I'm

going to be eaten by a lion

so first I'll run away from The Lion and

then I'll worry about lunch right now

lunch is essential

I mean eating's essential

but not as essential as surviving so you

can eat

so fear is number one and there's

nothing close

somebody said sex I'll agree with you

sex would be more persuasive than fear

even fear but it doesn't really enter

into politics

but you're right so that that was

actually a very insightful comment sex

would actually be more persuasive than

even fear you see yourself right people

have sex even when it's risky so yes

you're absolutely right if if sex had

been part of the question

like sexual relations not gender yeah it

would have made a difference but

politics it doesn't

um

all right so if fear is the most

important persuasion Factor let me ask

you this what demographic group

based on science not not bigotry

based on science not bigotry

what group is the most susceptible to

fear

what group is easiest to scare

yeah and this is not a sexist

comment

I had to go Google it because I didn't

know

and I just wondered if there was any

difference and you Google it and all of

the top results say the same thing yeah

there's a big difference

the the women's biology

is such that they're easier to scare

they have more fear

about things now that makes sense

doesn't it

you understand that like if I walk out

in public

um I've said this before and it's even a

little bit irrational I've never been

afraid of a person

isn't that weird

now I've been afraid of you know a gun

that the person had in their hands

unfortunately I've looked down the

barrel of a few guns I've been afraid of

that but if it's just the person

I'm not really afraid of somebody just

because they're big

right it's part of being male are you

are there any men

who are afraid of just being in public

because there are men who are bigger or

tougher looking that never even enters

my mind oh you are you are now I'm not

talking about going into a dangerous

neighborhood of course you shall be

fearful of that I'm talking about just

you get on the bus and there's some big

men on the bus

would that scare you if you're not as

big as them if you're male that wouldn't

scare me

I mean not even a little bit

but if you're a woman

do you have an actual risk you do yeah

it's an actual risk so it makes sense

biologically it's completely rational

that those who are you know less able to

inflict death on somebody would be more

afraid of other people

you know one of the benefits of being

male is that we can kill anybody

am I right

you could be bigger than me but I could

definitely kill you

right I might have to wait till you turn

around

I might have to wait till you go to

sleep but oh I could kill you

I could kill you right it was every man

could now women could kill you when you

fall asleep too it's just they're less

likely to do it

by the way I saw a story in the news

it was a woman who found nude pictures

on her boyfriend or husband I think it

was thinking of his husband and found

nude pictures of you know some young

looking hot woman on his computer and

she ended up stabbing him

she was so jealous she stabbed him

and later she found out that the nude

pictures on his computer were pictures

of his wife when she was thinner

so that was probably awkward later in

the evening when they sorted that all

out

talk about an awkward day wow

anyway so women can kill men too it's

just they need a reason

that was a reason she didn't kill him

though she just stabbed him a few times

um

so yes it is scientifically true that

young women who dominate the Democrat

Party are easier to scare

now

so so number one

since both sides are trying to scare

their own side mostly you're talking to

your own team right

so you've got one team of

dominated by older white men

are are men are older

white men easier or harder to scare than

the average person

older I'm not talking about elderly

necessarily I'm just you know older

mature older they're pretty hard to

scare right

yeah we're pretty hard to scare I'm in

that group we're pretty hard to scare

like actual scare you know we'll we'll

be concerned about things like anybody

would but it's kind of hard to scare us

and irrationally

so that is a that's a built-in Advantage

all right now I'm going to go one level

further

who is easier to scare

a man with high testosterone or low

go and this is not bigotry this is

science this this is only what science

will support there's no speculation

involved here

yeah Low T people are easier to scare

high tea people are braver

now they might be braver to the point of

stupidity uh let me be clear here I'm

not saying men are awesome in high

testosterone men are the best of all

there's no quality judgment happening

here I'm not I'm not trying to put

anybody down

I'm only talking pure science

and if you Google it which I did you'll

find that the higher your testosterone

the less fear you have

that's just sort of what that drug does

to you

right you put a little more testosterone

in you get a little braver it's one to

one

now let me ask you this

uh

does the Democrat Party have high T men

or low T men

on average

yeah

I feel like it is sort of low T men who

want to uh

who want to be popular with women

and they believe that women told them

the truth

that if they act sensitive they'll like

them better

do you know I I believe that for like 20

years

that women have gaslighted me for almost

20 years when in my younger life

because I got raised in the you know the

feminist era

so the feminist said you know

to be a good male and not a piece of

you should be in touch with your

feminine side

and you should be flexible and more and

more like a woman I mean you know you

don't have to be a woman but just be

more in touch with your feminine side

and that would make you a person that

people are really going to like

so yeah in in my younger days I thought

you know if I give women everything they

want

I'm in

just give them everything they asked for

yeah and it won't be easy but I'm the

kind of guy who's willing to do the

extra work

yeah I don't care that it's hard to get

there oh you tell me if the path is hard

but there's a good reward at the end

I'll still take that path because I'm

the kind of guy who will crawl through

broken glass to get what I want which is

true

basically I'm unstoppable if I really

want something

but I was gaslighted so badly that I

thought the way to crawl through grout

glass was to give women what they asked

for

oh my God was I stupid

oh my God

like it took me years to figure out that

was all a lie and none of that was like

how people work like it was just

completely off model for just anything

just reality did not conform to any of

that

right

your libido has ruled your life well of

course it has

am I supposed to apologize for that

if your libido ruled your life it might

not have worked out well

but I wouldn't apologize for it that is

literally how you were evolved you

evolved so your libido would take over

your brain

I don't apologize for that it's neither

good nor bad it's just how I evolved

right I didn't have anything to do with

the choices my ancestors made not my

fault

I just I just got here the way I got

here

all right

what is uh the most predictive element I

asked you what's the most persuasion

element what's the most predictive thing

in all the world

the most predictive thing

it never fails

seriously yeah money

follow the money works even when it

shouldn't

now the even when it shouldn't is the

part that I'm adding to the conversation

you've all heard follow the money blah

blah blah right follow the money is just

so obvious

there's nothing to say about it it's

just so obvious but what I'm having

and I'm adding this aggressively

is that follow the money works even when

there's no reason it should

like every part of your instinct says

not this time this time is not going to

be about the money because we have all

these other big issues there's you know

the the fate of the world you know it's

honor it's Integrity it's the fate of

the Democracy these are all so big it's

not about the money this time

and then it's always about the money

right

my understanding is that the Democrats

spent better on uh close races

is that confirmed

can can anybody confirm that from the

reporting today

I saw one of the pundits say that the

Democrat it was a republican who said it

a republican said that the Democrats

spent better

in the close races

so now you've got

two factors that predicted the Democrats

would do well

Factor one fear is the biggest

uh persuasion thing

but here's the next thing all right

here's the next Quiz

which is more persuasive

uh I will give you something you want

or

I will take from you something you value

which one which one forms action more

I'll give you something you asked for

or I'll take from you something you

value

not even close

not even close

if you're going to take something you've

got to fight

you got to fight on your hands if you're

taken right you don't take

we're not a species that evolved to give

up stuff

you know we like stuff but there's lots

of stuff we like and we're also used to

not getting what we like right we're

very used to not getting everything we

like but man if I've got something and

you try to take it away from me

suddenly it's the most important thing

in my life you're not taking my

right

so what did the Republicans say they

would do for the Democrat women

they said they'd take their

elect us and we'll take away your rights

that's how they heard it

right because abortion

now I'm not I'm not speaking for or

against abortion so we're not talking

about the policy I'm only talking about

the persuasion

now a lot of people said that that

um

abortion was not why they were voting

a lot of people said like two or three

percent said that's why they voted but

two or three percent was the margin on

all the tight races wasn't it

two to three percent said abortion was

why they voted

you know they were kind of single issue

voters

two to three percent is all it takes

that's the whole game

I I mean you could easily make a story

that abortion is the only thing that

mattered

at the same time the news is saying the

opposite they're saying that only two to

three percent said it mattered so it

didn't matter

isn't that upside down if two to three

percent actually voted because of it

that's the whole race

so I don't know I mean I think that

one's still a little bit Gray

but you gotta you gotta at least wonder

if that mattered all right what is

something else that uh the Republicans

were going to take away from the

Democrats go

what were the Democrats afraid of losing

besides abortion

democracy

democracy

yep

they thought they were going to lose

democracy

now

doesn't that sound ridiculous

if you don't believe democracy was at

risk

that doesn't even register as you as a

thing does it if you're a Republican and

you know the January 6th stuff was all

not even once did you think that

democracy was at risk did you so you

didn't take that seriously did you

ever I didn't every time I heard it I'd

be like okay that's nobody's going to

take that seriously but I was sort of in

my bubble wasn't I

how many people would it take to take

that seriously before the the red wave

goes away

not many

if if five percent of Democrats believed

they were going to lose the thing they

valued the most

Freedom democracy

it would only take five percent of them

to be afraid that they were literally

going to lose it

do you think that five percent of the

Low T men who are Democrats were

literally afraid of losing democracy

I do

I do

I don't think most of them were

seriously afraid about five percent yeah

absolutely do you think that five

percent of Republicans

who had some fear of like losing a thing

I don't think so

I think they all thought they were going

to get something Republicans all went

into the midterm thinking yeah we're

getting stuff

but they weren't afraid of losing stuff

were they

now you could say yeah inflation

you know losing their guns but gun

control wasn't even an issue was it gun

control just disappeared as an issue

if the Democrats had pushed gun control

as their number one issue what would

have happened

they were lost

bigger yeah because that would be taking

something away from Republicans what

happens when you say we're going to take

something away from Republicans

they'll do anything to stop it because

nobody wants to lose what they have

right

right so

correct me if I'm wrong if you look at

the demographics of the two groups you

can see that fear would

be more effective in one group and fear

is the most important persuasion

did the Democrats try to activate that

fear

did they tell you you're losing your

democracy you're losing your freedom of

your bodily autonomy yeah they did

you as a republican take any of that

seriously because you thought that's not

going to work

probably you didn't take it too

seriously

but that's because you didn't believe it

right

they actually believed

they were going to lose these things now

abortion's kind of a gray area because

the states get to decide so maybe nobody

will lose anything at least in terms of

the majority

but certainly they had the feeling that

they lost something right if you're a

Democrat it doesn't matter that it's up

to the states they can't feel that what

they feel is it's harder to get an

abortion they feel that they lost

something

yeah and the January 6th thing probably

did make it a little bit credible that

they could lose their democracy

um here's a big hidden Danger

the polls the polls were unreliable

right so the polls before the election

didn't get it right

what is more dangerous than the polls

not agreeing with the outcomes of

Elections

that is like the most dangerous

situation isn't it because you've got

people who are wondering about the

credibility of the election

and at this point you know we're happy

that Justice is blind

we like it that Justice you know isn't

the bigot Justice is blind

but now we have democracy as blind

democracy is blind because we don't have

a system where we know what happens when

the vote gets into the computers it's a

little bit blind there but now we're

blind because the polls don't even tell

you okay if the outcome in the polls

were close

probably was a fair election

but what if they're not close

what if the polls say oh it's going to

be a red wave and then the actuality is

nothing even close

at that point it's easy to rig elections

because the public doesn't expect the

polls and the outcomes to match

the moment the public doesn't doesn't

think polls and outcomes should match

because they've seen enough examples

where they don't kind of like a weather

report right well you don't really

expect the weather forecast for next

week

to be necessarily accurate you know

might be better than 50 but you know

your expectations are not that high

well

the good news

and

um I see on Twitter just the smallest

amount of quibbling about you know some

election Integrity stuff

you know mostly just about Arizona

Maricopa but I think Maricopa is the

closest watched

you know election segment in the whole

country

uh because especially because they had

problems so I think there are plenty of

people watching it and however that

turns out it doesn't it doesn't affect

most of the results one way or the other

um

but we survived and it looks like

um we're not going to have a huge

election Integrity problem would you say

as of today does it look like there

won't be any major risks to the

democracy

so far

yeah

all right now here are the uh reasons

you're going to hear in the regular uh

pundit Press today

everybody's going to have to tell you

why the results didn't come out the way

you thought

some people are going to say the quality

of the candidate mattered

but does the quality of the candidate

matter every time

I would argue that the quality of the

candidate matters only if everything

else doesn't

right the quality of the candidate

matters

only if everything else doesn't matter

so if you're if the control of the

Congress is at risk

then the quality of the candidate

doesn't make any difference at all

none when when the Democrats needed to

get Trump out of office did the quality

of the candidate matter nope didn't

matter at all

so everybody who says the quality of the

candidate matters

they're right unless there's some other

thing that matters more now so which

makes it almost worthless right isn't

the Yogi Berra famous saying

uh good pitching beats good hitting and

vice versa

is is that Yogi Bear or somebody else

but the the thinking is

that and let me say that again

a good candidate

can overcome almost any situation you

know that's what Trump did he was a good

candidate in the first election

right but more money can overcome any

candidate

so there's an amount of money that can

overcome any candidate but there's also

a quality of a candidate that could

overcome almost any money

so when you see the pundit say well it's

the candidate that matters

the little recording in your head should

say

unless it's a close race and Congress is

up for you know unless there's a lot of

money you know blah blah blah blah yeah

and also depends who you're running

against right would fetterman have won

against a more traditional

candidate than Oz

didn't get Oprah's endorsement

now do you think that Oprah uh makes a

difference when she makes an endorsement

how much do endorsements normally matter

sometimes they matter a little

but I feel like their Oprah endorsement

is like might be the only one that

matters from a celebrity

remember Oprah can sell books

do you know who else can sell books by

recommending them almost nobody

almost nobody if anybody else could sell

books like she does they'd all be doing

it because that would give you some

power or you could get some you know

benefits from the books that are sold

Etc but Oprah has an unusual ability to

move her own audience

and her own audience is who

who is the audience for Oprah

weapons women

and probably younger ones

I don't know if it's younger ones but

might be

all right

um

see I think Oprah actually mattered

um I literally don't care who won

I know you don't want to hear that I

don't care at all and I told you that in

advance you know why right I'm a one

issue voter

and nobody had a fentanyl plan that was

good you know some of them were you know

tighten up the Border but that's just

basic stuff that's something you need to

do

it doesn't get anywhere close to

stopping Fentanyl

so if the Republicans don't have a

anti-fental plan and the Democrats don't

I don't give a which one of them

won

don't care at all honestly don't

um

but I'd like to give a shout out to

Twitter user Dodger Dave

Dodger Dave I know he follows me on

Twitter but I don't know if you're

watching this but Dodger Dave reported

on Twitter today that he's been off of

fentanyl for one year

one year today

so if anybody uh would like to

congratulate him on Twitter

please do he's going to need all the

help he get that he can get

um but

this is a real accomplishment by the way

yeah when you're somebody like you know

he overcame odds to run for Senate and

you won the Senate you're like hey

that's a that's a strong person there

you know Kerry Lake there's a strong

person she's overcoming odds to you know

maybe when we don't know yet but none of

that comes close to Dodger Dave

Dodger Dave got off Fentanyl

this is the strongest guy you know

right like I wouldn't want to be in a

fight with Dodger Dave

I wouldn't want to be in a contest with

Dodger Dave where whoever could take the

most pain was going to win the contest

Dodger Dave's got the goods all right so

he made it a year so keep going

um Trump made a joke in a third of the

country either pretended they didn't get

it or wanted to act like they don't or

don't know what a joke is so prior to

the election

Trump was asked if he would take you

know credit for his candidates he

endorsed winning yes they did and he

said quote with a smile so you have to

understand he said this with a clear

smile that says I'm joking

and he said well I think if they win

meaning his candidates if they win I

should get all the credit

if they lose I should not be blamed at

all

and then later he you know he

confirmed the point that everybody acts

that way you know everybody acts that

they take credit when they win and they

take no responsibility when they lose

and he made the point that that's what

everybody does

right but what he first answered it

about himself

what did the Democrats say

oh my God

the ego on that man

the narcissism of them in that if he

wins he takes credit but if he doesn't

win he doesn't take credit my God the

ego The Narcissist everything we thought

about him was right

to which I say

he was mocking his own ego

that was the joke the joke was he was

making fun of himself that he would take

credit for something that clearly you

know might be a random occurrence

that was obviously making fun of his own

narcissism

and they couldn't tell the difference

or they pretend they couldn't but I saw

a lot of comments where it really looked

like they couldn't tell the difference

they actually thought that was

narcissism I've argued with you before

that

he's he might be closer to the opposite

because he puts his ego out there where

it's just trashed every day by his

critics most people couldn't handle that

but he kept so apparently he's got some

kind of control over his ego where he

can mock himself

and he can still make the joke after the

fact you know if his people had won he

would have taken full credit

and he would have done it with a smile

and and those who knew him would have

known oh he doesn't mean it or or maybe

he does a little bit but but he knows

he's having fun with it right you would

know he was having fun with it

somebody says but your record not good

well your records not good you talking

about me

anybody who tells me my prediction

record is not good means that they only

know about some of my predictions

generally that's all it means

um I don't even know if my record is

good but I know that the people who say

it's bad are never aware of my actual

record

um Mike cernovich

said this on Twitter today after the

results are mostly in he said Trump has

zero shot at 2024 General after tonight

this is enough for debate uh I was

around in 2015 when he had quote no

chance and accurately said he'd win true

statement

and he threw the biggest inauguration

event in 2017 but he says times change

or or he changed or whatever but it's

you know time to move on

um

[Applause]

what do you think let me let me pull you

before I give you my opinion uh does

Trump now have zero chance of winning

because his he met he's going to get

blamed for the midterms because he he

promoted some candidates that lost and

maybe it was their loyalty to him that

was his main consideration

and that's how it's going to be

interpreted

a lot of people saying zero

okay now everybody who's at zero hold on

for a second hold your answers for a

second so everybody who says zero

who would you vote for if he's running

against a Democrat

who would you vote for

would you not vote for him because you'd

vote for the Democrat

how many of you will now vote for the

Democrat no matter who it is if Trump is

the other one

nobody nobody yeah everybody who says

Trump has zero chance

totally wrong you're totally wrong

yeah

now

I don't normally disagree with Mike

cernovich

you've probably noticed that right I'm

going to agree with him most of the time

but one thing one thing you need to know

about him is he's one of the strongest

persuaders

in the country

right his persuasion game his actual

technical knowledge of how to do it is

one of the best in the country

so in the in the political context

he's persuading as well as giving you

his opinion and sometimes it's more

persuasion and sometimes it's more

opinion

it's a little hard to know

with people who are good at it it's a

little hard to know exactly when they're

doing what

but

um I think this is more persuasion than

prediction

would you agree

because two years is a long time

do you know it's a long time

a week

everything you know about everything

could be done could be wrong in a week

am I right everything we knew about the

midterms was wrong today

in 24 hours everything you knew about

politics changed am I right

everything you knew about politics just

changed in one day

so if you say that Trump can't win based

on what's happening today

I think that ignores the the function of

time

and what we've observed for quite a

while now which is things can change

radically and quickly and you know you

don't you don't predict it so so yes he

could win

all right now here's the second question

can win doesn't mean will win right can

mean does not mean will

if if DeSantis primaried him

which I'm not going to predict I don't

predict it I don't rule it out but I

don't predict it so remember I said that

I don't rule it out but I don't predict

it that's that's a hard one because you

could imagine DeSantis getting enough

pressure

that even if he had decided not to maybe

he could change his mind you know good

of the country it's the right time sort

of thing

but do you think he could primary uh

Trump successfully go

who would win in the primary dissentis

or Trump

DeSantis or Trump in the primaries

most of you are saying Trump

it looks like about two-thirds or more

saying Trump now it's evening out

I'm just it's hard to tell just by the

answers all right so it's mixed it's

mixed uh here's the answer

they both could win

yeah I think that was not as obvious as

anybody thinks they both could win

the way that uh DeSantis could win

is to say I'm Trump without the uh the

bad parts

and then it's just over

that it's just over

now I'm not saying that's a true

statement or that you should believe it

because Trump does have them some things

which are unmatchable right Trump is a

little unmatchable in some categories of

of things but if that if that was the

pitch

if DeSantis says look I'll give you all

the good of trump but without the

downside

I think he just walks to the nomination

I think if he played it that way

he just walks into the nomination

honestly I don't even think it would be

close

but I don't think he would play it that

way

I think you'd play it more traditionally

and then it's anybody's guess

he already is

yeah and the fact that our their

elections are always close

this was really that probably this was

the greatest

um affirmation of democracy that I've

ever seen

would you agree

I I feel like yeah that our our system

just totally showed itself as strong

and once again

you know big uh big uh Applause for the

founders who hundreds of years ago built

a system to last the test of time

and it did

so far so good

I I think that our our Republic is the

strongest it's been

in a long time like right today

this is actually a really really

positive thing because not only did the

Republicans uh find some humility

but I think everybody did

that the the one thing that everybody

needed both the Republicans and

Democrats and Scott needs this too

and all of the public all the pundits

right so I'm in this category I'm going

to criticize you know what we all needed

there's one thing we all needed

a big old dose of humility

that's what we all needed right we all

needed to be a little bit wrong and just

have it slapped in our faces right so

everybody got to be a little bit wrong

on this one here's how the Democrats are

wrong

the strongest governors

one one easily

right the governors who who handle

things like Republicans and had real

plans and you know real

like solid policy things

DeSantis being one Abbott being another

I guess

what's his name in Georgia

Georgia Governor is a camp yeah so those

three governors are being held out as

um good models

so if you're if you're a Democrat you

look at those three governors and you

say oh

and young young kids another example

yeah four Governors let's say you would

look at those governors and say oh every

time somebody acts like a good

Republican they win big

how about that

the people who actually act like real

Republicans

not crazy Republicans you're not extreme

Republicans not not Marjorie Taylor

green I'm not criticizing her I'm just

saying that she's she's in that way

right

so if you're a Democrat you need to have

some humility that when a republican

acts like a Republican

without the crazy

they win hard

right

being a just a normal capable Republican

governor and you don't just win you you

win with

like a punch

it's like a win plus it's not even close

but then you throw the crazy in and

what happens

not so easy right you throw in Dr Oz

and he's not exactly a traditional

Republican is he you're not quite sure

what you're getting there because it's a

little mix of stuff

um a mix you know his background has

some sketchy stuff according to people

what's crazy about Oz is some of his uh

let's say uh things he's promoted in his

entertainment career now I don't

necessarily think that should haunt him

because that's a different kind of job

but it is I think it does I think it I

think it leads to the not serious

feeling you look at DeSantis and you do

you say he's serious or not serious

DeSantis is as serious as a heart attack

you look at Abbott is AVID a serious

politician or not so he's serious

that's a serious guy right

uh right those are serious people but

you look at Oz and as serious as he may

be about politics at the moment you

don't get the same feeling about him

right it feels a little more

opportunistic would you say a little

opportunistic which is nothing wrong

with that by the way if you're not

opportunistic why aren't you you should

all be opportunistic you know that's our

system play it play it the way it was

designed be opportunistic but it might

not look good

might not look good as a look

yeah uh is masters

done or does he still have a chance with

what's uncounted is Blake Masters done

that race hasn't been called to you

right because there's still some small

chance that the remaining votes go his

way

small chance not looking good

all right

um

do you think that uh

do you think that Trump made the quality

of candidates not matter

I think a little bit he did

and what I mean by that is uh the

what Trump did

was maybe solidify the team play aspect

more than anybody else did

you could imagine or you know 20 years

ago you could imagine a Republican or a

Democrat just voting for the other team

because they like that candidate it's

easy to imagine a Democrat voting for

Reagan right

that's pretty easy to imagine and it

worked

but Trump came in and he basically you

know made it a blood War

so so being on the side of the the blood

enemy that doesn't work the same

right Reagan liked everybody and so it

was okay to be on his team even if he

didn't like 100 of what he was doing

Trump is so polarizing that I think

people just voted for their team

so I think that the the team play nature

of things just eliminated the quality of

the candidate except

remember you know good pitching beats

good hitting and vice versa

except where the candidate was so strong

like the Republican Governors we

mentioned where the candidate was so

strong that nothing else mattered and

people said oh okay I can get beyond

that

all right

um

uh Rasmussen

um said that uh 25 of the people they

polled say that the the late results

that make them more confident that the

election is fair

25 yeah so 25 say that when you don't

immediately have a result like every

country in the world can do that that

that's probably an indicator that things

are more

secure than you thought

25 percent

sometimes that's called like one quarter

oh

and why does that number keep popping up

anyway

here's the uh most uh unexpected but not

really

story of the day that has nothing to do

with this but we'll get back to it

uh remember Alan dershowitz was accused

by one of the Epstein

victim young women

and the the victim young woman who has

been accusing dershowitz of sexual

impropriety four years

today recanted her accusation

she she fully recanted her accusation

what yeah exactly exactly yeah I'm

watching the comments over locals and

the people are like what

what

the

now

does recanting your accusation mean that

it wasn't true

it doesn't right it doesn't

doesn't mean it wasn't true

but I'm going to Pat myself on the back

for something if you don't mind

all right when many of you were

basically saying you know dershowitz is

dead to you because of those accusations

um I said

I said

he has an unusually strong defense and

you better wait

you better wait on this one

because he's not hedging he wouldn't

write at it he went at it like a maniac

do you know how he defended himself

he defended himself like an innocent

person

now remember he's smart enough to know

how to play it psychologically and leave

the right impression but he defended

himself like an innocent person

and and the claims that he made in his

defense

sounded so

so weak that they they actually sounded

real

you know what I mean like if you made up

a defense it might sound a little

stronger but he had that yeah she did

give me a massage but I left my

Underpants off

and you're saying that's not like the

strongest defense

but that's actually why it sounded real

to me it sounded real to me because who

would say that

that's like the better defense would be

we didn't have a massage

right if you're just gonna lie

you know maybe you'd lie differently now

none of that says he was innocent

so let me be clear

I don't know I have no idea who did

anything but I'll tell you dershowitz is

the person who fights for your ability

to be innocent until proven guilty

that's who he is he fights for your

ability to be innocent until proven

guilty so I I returned the favor

I returned the favor

again has nothing to do with any

knowledge I would have about who did or

did not do anything how would I know

but in our system

in our system I'm going to favor the

system over the individual results

because you got to keep the system

strong and this was one of those

innocent until proven guilty things that

I was kind of a Maniac about honestly

like I didn't know which way it would go

but I'm a total Maniac about the guy who

helps keep your ability to be innocent

until proven guilty that's who he is and

he's very consistent about that always

has been so I respect that and I return

the favor which has nothing to do with

any other thing he may or may not do

done it's just about the system

so

um I hope I hope I hope this is the

right outcome

I hope

but it's another reminder that

everything you think is true

no matter how sure you are that is true

you don't really know

don't really know

um I gave a warning last night that I

thought was going to be important but

maybe it isn't which is the same morning

I gave at 2020 which is everything you

hear about maybe there's some

impropriety in the election

that 95 percent of it at least at least

95 percent of it would be total

I'm still at that number

yeah because we you've heard some things

like oh what about this what about that

I think it's all so far

which is not to say

there's no cheating I would never say

that there's just no way to know but

what you hear the things that go

surfaced are 95 so if if you

hear something that sounds really really

credible about some election shenanigans

it might be true but that shouldn't be

your assumption you should start with

the Assumption very unlikely

but be open to the possibility be open

to the possibility just don't believe in

any Krakens like I did don't be a don't

be a kraken believer

be a kraken denier until until it's

proven

all right but it looks like there isn't

so far I'm not seeing a lot of claims of

fraud am am I looking in the wrong

places

is there anybody on television who's

claiming fraud has Trump has Trump

weighed in and said the election was

rigged

because Trump would have already said

something would they because they're

going to ask him Trump's going to be

asked so somebody Carrie lake is saying

something is suspicious uh I don't know

what she's saying but here's what I'll

bet without even knowing what she's

saying I'll bet

what she's saying is you know we need to

be careful and take a look at this

I'll bet she's not saying it's

definitely rigged

because she would be way too smart to

say that right

confirm that she's way too smart to say

the election is rigged

she is definitely smart enough to say we

need to take a look at why things didn't

go as planned and that's important you

know the election was kind of you know

botched

right yeah so if she says the election

was botched

that's right

if she says she got cheated on the

victory

that would be too far

with what the information we have

um

all right

um

so

here are all the different things you're

going to hear from the pundits who got

everything wrong up to this point

they're going to say the good candidates

won they're going to say spending was

the difference the somebody say cheating

I suppose some might say the rule

changes some might say

um

the GOP had no Solutions

did you notice that the GOP didn't have

Solutions

well it turns out they did they had this

whole commitment to America thing today

let me tell you what I remember from

reading the commitment to America

and now I'm done

those are all the things I remember from

my reading of the commitment to America

do you know when I learned that there's

a commitment to America document

I learned that after the election

all I do is watch the news

that's all I do is watch the

news all day I didn't know

I didn't know the Republicans had a

written plan did you

yeah first year hearing of it

now I feel like like I have this vague

memory

that Rick Scott had something but it was

different from what the Republicans had

as sort of a platformy thing but I just

thought it was something generic

platformy thing I didn't think it was

anything serious

Fox talks about it all the time

do they

I haven't heard any details what were

the details

uh refund police I don't know so

my uh well here's one of my blind spots

I had until right before the election I

I sort of tuned into this on Election

Day but not soon enough

uh that the Republicans were not giving

a positive story

they were sort of assuming that you knew

that they did a better job

and because you could see that things

were bad under the Democrats but I guess

people were not making the leap from

things are bad to Republicans have a

better idea

I think they do have a better idea but

they didn't make the argument

yeah and Rick Scott made them afraid

that Social Security was on the on the

line right now whether it was or not it

was enough to get them afraid of it so

what is the biggest persuasion fear

Who had who had the better fear of

persuasion the Democrats said

um

was it uh really about Trump

how much of the election was really

about getting rid of all Trump

supporters it makes sure there's you

know less chance that Trump would get

elected

probably some of it

I I think I think people's minds are

framed by Trump so that you can't not

consider him it's impossible not to

consider it

uh how about uh the mega mega extremist

claim made by Biden did it work

the mega mega they're all extremists and

and Marjorie Taylor green and you know

those are the ones you have to watch out

for

I thought it wouldn't

because it wasn't working on me

like when I hear blah blah extremists I

go blah blah blah I don't even care but

remember the Democrats the demographic

that is more Democrat is younger women

and as we discussed in case you missed

it science says very clearly that women

are easier to scare they're easier to

frighten

so

do you think that women were afraid of

losing democracy and

um the mega mega extremists and they'd

lose their bodily autonomy and stuff

probably yes

and the Low T males again this is not a

judgment statement I'm not saying

there's something wrong with you because

you have lower testosterone it's just

different

and but those differences do translate

into you know mental States and actions

uh how about uh apparently the Democrats

are getting credit for their uh crazy

sounding strategy of boosting the worst

candidates on the Republican side

so that the primaries were won by the

work the worst you know extremists and

then they lost their elections

apparently that worked

is that what happened

is it did that happen with Oz

was I was backed by the secret dark

Democrat money

yeah Marjorie Taylor Greene won as did

probably a lot of the people who AOC and

the squad all won by big numbers too the

the people were in safe districts all

one

that has just more to do with the

district

um

how about uh do you think the GOP stayed

home because they thought they were

going to win

what do you think of the theory that

Republicans didn't turn out because they

were confident of winning

I don't feel that

I don't feel it

yeah it's possible I could be persuaded

but

that wasn't the energy I was picking up

I was picking up

Republicans vote for fun

and for a principal

Republicans don't vote or not vote

because it's convenient

am I right

in fact you could Define Republicans as

people who are going to vote no matter

how hard you make it they're gonna

vote because it's important it's

a principle

right

um

I don't know if it's the same on both

sides it might be but I don't see

Republicans staying home because it

rained

yeah maybe

all right

um the best predictors in my opinion

were follow the money

and persuasion of fear

the persuasion of losing something

abortion rights bodily autonomy you know

losing your democracy those those were a

good good

approaches by the Democrats it turns out

um and it was it was a little bit

invisible to me

because that persuasion wasn't intended

for me

and it didn't work on me so I was a

little bit

um I was blinded by the fact it was

designed for a certain demographic and

it worked it worked on that demographic

I think

and then what about The High Ground

maneuver that's that's the fourth thing

that I talk about all the time which you

you can never lose

if you take The High Ground

you win every conversation I'll give you

an example we should do a no we should

do B and then somebody else in the

meeting says can we test both of those

things cheaply

and both the people go yes

and then the smart person says well why

don't we just test both of them and

we'll do the one that works better

That's The High Ground once you hear it

you just stop arguing because you would

sound like an idiot after you heard of

The High Ground right was there any High

Ground

did anybody have The High Ground in this

election

well maybe a little bit

maybe a little bit because I think The

High Ground was protect the democracy

it was

but it does sound like the bigger

principle doesn't it

if I gave you a choice to get exactly

the right candidates you want

but you might lose democracy itself

that's not a good deal for me right so

preserving the system actually is a

pretty good high ground

and the Democrats have it they actually

had The High Ground

weirdly the low ground was I might get

mugged on the street

right I might get mugged on the street

is real that's like freaking real that's

a real immediate personal local fear

but it's also not The High Ground

it isn't The High Ground is the whole

country that's just bigger than your

little problem on the street

so the Democrats have that they have The

High Ground and uh January 6 was

probably the key to to holding that now

again I was a little bit blind to that

because it didn't work on me

right so that's the persuasion you miss

when it doesn't work on you personally

it was easier to see Trump coming

because his persuasion was working on me

you know what I mean if you can feel it

it's easy to call it out but I miss this

completely

um Maricopa County what went wrong so

the information we're getting is sketchy

as hell which is that some of the

machines were crashing some of the time

because they couldn't handle the type of

ink that was used on the ballots

how many questions does that raise

question number one

you don't test the actual ballots with

the actual machines before the election

or do you just test a few

and testing a few wouldn't have picked

up these errors

did they test the actual ballots

or was there you know some production

problem that they have to use you know

cheaping for the for some of them

I don't know so those are big questions

we'll find out

but

could you game the system

by giving some people ballots that had

intentionally weak ink and giving the

people that you knew would vote your way

Bellas they had the proper rink

could somebody game the system that way

could you take legal ballots and replace

them with weak Inc ballots could you if

you were the printer if you were the

printer of these ballots could you make

two batches of ballots one that you sent

to predominantly Democrat areas and one

two predominantly Republican areas

I don't know you could

but

here's the sketchiest part I heard about

it

the technicians visited all the machines

it's now on Election Day you've got

people inside the election machines

okay there are people inside the

election machines on Election Day that

makes you feel comfortable doesn't it

now I'm hoping that they have systems

and processes to protect that very thing

because you would expect on Election Day

would be the day you would have the most

technicians and the most machines for

just ordinary reasons right so they must

have some way to protect against the

obvious danger of having anybody in the

machine I don't know what it is but I'm

hoping they have a process so probably

that wasn't a problem

probably not

but

does it raise any suspicion

that they could tweak individual

machines to a higher state of

sensitivity and then they would work

wait a minute

if so if all of the machines were made

the same

but only some of them needed to be

tweaked

doesn't that mean that they were not the

same machines

that they were they had different

settings

because if the hardware is the same and

the software is not the same and the

only thing they changed was a setting

that means they weren't using the same

machines

and that means

I'm very curious if the ones that didn't

have the right setting

were in one kind of District versus

another

or one Precinct versus another

somebody says it's not the tabulators it

was the printers

not the tabulators but the printers so

is the system that when you vote it

prints out your vote and then they take

that printed vote and put it in a

tabulator

is that what's happening

somebody says yes

however

was it the printer they adjusted or the

tabulators

what got it what got adjusted the

tabulators or the printers

the printers

so somebody tabulous somebody changed

the printer so they printed properly

but it's the printer on the voting

machine

right

if that if the vote gets printed out by

the voting machine it's the voting

machine itself that's rating the or

that's the problem right

okay I guess we have a whole bunch of

questions

so I I don't have enough detail to go

much further but let me make the general

point

so whether it was the printers

or the printer on the voting machine

or the election machine counter no

matter what it was

no matter what it was the intention was

they were all the same right

the intention was everybody had the same

equipment

how can some of that equipment act

differently

how is that possible

well one way would be if somebody put

Bad Ink or not enough ink in some of the

printers

that would actually be a pretty you know

normal reasonable thing some of them

just add Bad Ink or bad printers but it

could be the same printer just some of

them weren't good

uh listen to the printer expert uh who's

the printer expert

you have no standing to find out what

happened yeah yeah maybe maybe there'll

be no standing from a legal sense so

there's no way to find out

all right all all I'm saying is

they have not eliminated the possibility

of shenanigans would you agree with that

that what we know so far

has not eliminated Shenanigans from the

possibilities set but there's but would

you agree with the second part

if the problem is the printers were not

printing

um

let's say the same

doesn't that sound like a normal problem

like you know the whole thing is

explained

if all it is is that printers don't

print the same everywhere that's

everything we already know every one of

you has a printer problem

yeah but then the question would be this

why do we never have this problem before

why do we never have this problem before

first time

Evan we always use printers and printers

suddenly went from functional to

non-functional and why did they only

become non-functional in the most

important County

all the other printers everywhere were

fine

just this one very important County

had some bad printers in it a lot of

them a lot of them got a lot of bad

printers in there

so here's here's what I believe

I believe we're still in the fog of War

so the the one thing we can all say

about Maricopa is we don't know what

happened would you agree with that

we don't have enough information

so the first thing we know is we don't

have enough information the second thing

we know is there is a perfectly normal

explanation for what we're seeing

doesn't mean it's true

but it's perfectly normal

yeah there was a problem with some

printers in one area

I mean that feels like something they

could explain with normal stuff again we

have questions why just this one area

why didn't we ever have this problem

before good questions but I wouldn't be

surprised if they could be answered

it could be as easy as

let me just give you an example it could

be easy as there's a procedure to put in

a new ink cartridge before you start the

election

and in one place they didn't do it

they they did some testing and they

forgot to change the ink cartridges and

then when it got toward the end the ink

was light and then the reader didn't

pick it up but everyone else just

followed the procedure

so they just didn't have that problem

maybe now I'm not saying that's the

answer I'm saying that it would be real

easy to imagine a very normal human

error situation

right

well but here's the thing

um

you could also determine whether it was

a mistake that would favor one side

but if the problem was simply that some

machines didn't work could you know that

would favor one side

good could you be confident that your

plan would work

I don't know these are questions we must

we must get to the bottom of

um

but I don't think the country is up in

arms I feel like Maricopa no matter what

happens there maybe we learned something

maybe we get smarter but it's not like

the end of the Democracy no matter what

happens

um

and let's see

that ladies and gentlemen

is I believe the most useful and best

live stream you're going to see today

about the election

now if you would like to track my

influence on the world

watch how the election results are

covered today now I have the advantage

of being able to go early in the day

so sometimes you know if I just say the

obvious thing

other people will also say the obvious

thing but it's not because of me

people are everybody's going to say the

obvious stuff so they're not copying me

if they say obvious stuff but

if you hear people talking about uh the

demographic difference

the fear persuasion you're taking

something away persuasion

or those things then maybe maybe that

was my influence

all right

um all of the pundits and news people

today are going to be struggling to say

something new

I just achieved that

see if anybody else does

so there's your challenge for the day so

this this is this is my pitch to you for

why you should watch my live stream it

is my contention that I I gave you a

take which you won't hear anywhere else

unless they were influenced by me

and I think that's what I had I add the

take you haven't heard somewhere else

which is not crazy by the way how did

you like my take

I guess I'll just ask you how you liked

it what do you think of my take that I

was blinded to the persuasion

for all the obvious reasons I'm not the

target of it

and and because I'm not the target

that's not a good excuse

because I do know enough about

persuasion I should have seen it

I should have picked that up

honestly but I think maybe I was picking

it up subconsciously because remember I

was very unique in not having a

prediction about a red wave

is there anybody else who is notable in

the prediction world

who also did not predict a red wave

sticks sticks and Hammer

is that true

nay silver but his was based on data

Michael Moore

yep

interesting all right let me ask you

this did Michael Moore do it again

I don't know if he was right on his

reason because I think he thought uh

I think he thought abortion was going to

be the like a driving thing but he might

have been right about that he might have

been right that that two or three

percent was all it took

uh are you admitting you are lacking in

Persuasion analysis in this case I

missed the signals yes but

but I don't think I missed them enough

that I made the wrong prediction

I I knew to not predict because there

was just something about this situation

that wasn't

I I couldn't put my finger on it just

wasn't something working but now after

the fact

it's it's a little clearer after the

fact you know you're you're analysis

could be a little bit better

um

but I would ask you this every time

somebody is this wrong

can you you know adjust to you believe

in the future

right if I had told you there was a red

wave

I would be pretty embarrassed today

and I would I would probably have to

tell you honestly that you should

discount what I predict in the future

but the fact that I was one of the few

people who did not predict a red wave I

feel like you should take that into

consideration too

oh you're right I wouldn't be

embarrassed yeah yeah I I guess that was

hyperbole yeah I don't really get

embarrassed by anything

but you get the point I would have been

wrong

um

yeah

all right even Jim cravers once right

once in a while somebody says

um

now let me let me ask you this

what happens if Carrie Lake loses

so that's still possible Right

or actually probable I think given her

current uh situation if she loses what

are the odds she wouldn't be the vice

president pick

for Trump

now he'd still have to get through the

primaries before that matters but what

are the odds

that that wouldn't happen

now

let me tell you a play that Trump could

do that he won't

but if Trump wanted to change his

reputation

from you know half of the country

thinking he's the worst thing that ever

happened to Earth

here's how we could do it

run for election with uh Carey Lake as

his vice president

win the election

and resign

win the election and resign

and then Trump

would give you

the first female president

and

and he would be George Washington

he would be George Washington

he would walk away from Power

after putting a woman in power

just think about it imagine him being

the person who put a woman in the

presidency his own decision nobody

else's his own personal nobody else in

the world decided he personally could

make her present

and then he does it

it'll never happen I agree it'll never

happen but

it's there

it's there

is free money

he could retire

as George Washington

people would people would go nuts the

heads would explode

now I agree with you the people who like

Trump like him because he's not like

that he's just always Trump

he's Trump today he's Trump tomorrow

will be Trump next week and that's part

of his appeal honestly so I don't think

he can do that

all right here's another way Trump could

easily win the election

but it also requires him to do something

Trump isn't going to do all right but

here's how easy it would be

you know I have to be honest I may have

pushed those vaccinations too hard

and I apologize for that

now

you can still say it's up to you I got

him I you know I did what I thought was

the best thing to do but I have to admit

that this didn't work out as well as I

thought

he he could actually just claim that

that didn't work out

the second thing he could do

is admit that he's getting people all

worked up about racism and and he wishes

he had

all he'd have to do to talk about border

and the immigration is just stop saying

they're sending their worst people

will you just stop saying that

like the first time you said it I feel

like it was good provocation

like it really you know brought all the

energy to him and they'd fight over

whether that was true or Hyperbole and

blah blah blah blah maybe it kind of

worked for him but at this point it just

looks racist

I don't think that's why he says it

but he has to know by now how it sounds

to the other team

all he'd have to do is say you know what

the people coming across the border are

are like a gift to this country

we should have more but we should do it

the right way

it's just so easy

I mean he could win everything just by

being

uncharacteristically humble

which isn't going to happen right but is

it I find it fascinating to know how

easily he could win everything

the the all he'd have to do

is just act normal for a while and even

if it's acting he knows how to act

so he could do it

yeah and and all the people who say I'll

never vote for him because of the thing

he did or the thing he didn't do it all

depends who he's running against

if he runs against a Democrat you're

going to be like ah damn it it's not my

first choice but I don't want that

Democrat over there so

if he gets in the race he could

definitely win the race I think getting

in the nomination would be the hard part

winning the race might be the easy part

in the end

but uh yes I would say this if Trump

acts exactly like he's always acted

he probably would lose to any Democrat

what do you say if Trump acts the way

he's always acted

he would lose to any Democrat because he

lost to Biden by acting that way

if you lose to Biden

whatever you did was the wrong thing to

do

but again what makes Trump trump is he

doesn't change and there there is value

in that there's value in knowing exactly

what you're going to get and I kind of

like that actually

but it doesn't work in this situation

right change is the only thing that

would get him

um elected only change and I don't think

that's on his menu

so there you go

but did he lose fairly I don't know

I'm going to say yes

because in my opinion uh cheating is

part of our election system and if the

Democrats haven't cheated the

Republicans and that made the difference

they won

they won because anybody who says that

the Republicans aren't trying to cheat

well you're just you're not a serious

person

somewhere there's a republican trying to

cheat somewhere

I don't know if there are more of them

or fewer of them than Democrats but

let's let's be adults it's a big country

with a lot of people in it somebody's

tried to cheat somewhere on both sides

uh uniparty Theory I don't discuss uni

party Theory because I don't take it

seriously

I I get the idea

that they end up being similar they all

want war

they all want to raise your taxes I get

that but I think it gets there

through a variety of ways you know

calling it The Unit party doesn't add

much to the analysis

will anybody primary Trump I think so

no you

I think Trump's going to have to get

through uh I hope so actually I hope so

I don't think I don't let me say this I

don't think Trump should be the nominate

and nominee without a primary

what would you say

because I think the Republicans need to

sort that out

don't they yeah normally you don't I

mean if he were a sitting president I'd

say no primary but given that he lost

and he lost to Biden

if you lose to Biden you have you have

to primary and if you're people you

recommended for the midterms

didn't work out you have to primary

now here's what's different today than

yesterday

if DeSantis and Sonny was going to

primary him you'd say well that's being

kind of a dick and maybe you're not

helping your party right

what would you say today

today it doesn't look like a dick move

today it looks like saving the party

right if DeSantis said he was going to

primary Trump he could say this is the

last thing I wanted to do

it's the last thing I wanted to do but

it's the only way to save the party

that's a really strong argument given

that the person he's primary just lost

to the worst candidate in the history of

candidates whose name wasn't fetterman

right

if I primary Trump I would just say this

he lost to Biden

and then they say but what policies are

you bringing and then I'd lean in and

say

he lost

to Biden

and then they say yes yes yes but what

are you going to do with taxes and

Ukraine and then I'd lean in and say

he lost the Biden and I I'm not even

going to give any more argument

honestly

he lost to Biden

right no whatever you want to say about

the you know propriety of the election

and the the pandemic changed the

election procedures and that made a

difference yes yes it made a difference

but he lost the Biden

I don't know how you get past that

right

how do you compare Trump to DeSantis in

a primary

they don't even compare do they

because you know you know Democrats are

going to be sort of or Republicans are

going to be sort of automatic for a

competent Republican all you need is

somebody who isn't going to embarrass

you and you get all the Republicans

and unfortunately Trump embarrasses some

Republicans

so you just can't get those

who who does DeSantis embarrass

nobody

there's there's no embarrassment to

factor so he just has to be solid and he

gets 100 of Republicans

but Trump can't do that

Trump can't just do a solid job and get

100 of Republicans because people are

kind of pissed

he'd lose to cheating again

I don't know I I'm optimistic that

um

that our elections are more watched than

they've ever been

uh and we don't have much of a complaint

this morning

except for the one one County that

everybody's watching carefully

so we'll see we we may be in good shape

we may be in good shape

Scott also believes the stripper loves

him very optimistic fellow

no I don't believe anybody loves me

so that's sort of my general uh my

Baseline I don't I don't mean you know

in the political in the public world

no I you know I know that uh many of you

have a positive feeling but I mean my

personal life

like in my personal life I just assume

nobody really loves me

I just

I'm not saying you should

I don't think he has to do with any of

my specific situations I just don't

assume it I I just assume it's all

transactional

I I saw some people on social media who

are saying that you know the way that

men love women and the way that women

love men is different

and I have to say it it matched my own

views I don't know if it's right

but the idea is that um women love what

men can provide it's a transactional

conditional relationship and that's all

it is

whereas men fall in love with

women

they're just the love of the woman

and so the woman can do

kind of anything good or bad

and it wasn't transactional in the first

place so the good or the bad won't

change your opinion about anything

you're still still want to stay married

whereas if the man doesn't provide the

things

then

you know could I uh inform some of you

idiots about what incel means

can I can I show you in cell means

involuntary

involuntary

do any of you idiots think that

a rich healthy man in America can't get

laid

I'd like to see your opinion do you

believe that a rich

completely fit good BMI

ordinary person in America do you think

I can't get laid

in 2022

say so

all right so somebody says no

all right here's how this works

everybody who's healthy and has money

can get laid

if they're male I mean I don't I can't

speak for women maybe it's the same

right

um

but do you but do you buy that frame

that men have to provide by the way

Chris Rock was saying the same thing I

think Chris Rock said the only people

who are loved unconditionally

are women dogs and children

they're the only ones who get

unconditional love and but men you you

got to deliver so for men it's just what

you're providing

now when I said I don't assume that

anybody loves me in my personal life

that's what I meant

that's what I meant I meant the moment I

stopped providing the love would go away

of course

of course it would but I've never

assumed differently

have you

is there any man here who thinks that

they would still be loved if they

withdrew all of their benefit from the

person they think loves them

now maybe if you had like an accident

you know if if you had a tragic accident

you couldn't do what you wanted to do

then yes

you know you probably would still be

loved but she'd still have an affair

because she would love the other guy

better

if maybe he could provide more so yes

and and I find this really helpful

I find this helpful

uh I find it helpful to assume that men

aren't loved because then you don't get

disappointed

right so one of the things that I get a

lot of heat for is having two divorces

to to which I say

I wanted to get married

it was good for a number of years

and then when I didn't want to be

married I changed the situation and you

know so did the other person it's not

it's not all about one person

so

I don't I didn't get married because I

thought they would last forever

I never said that do you know why I

didn't think I would I would be married

forever

could be the reason why do you think I

didn't ever believe I would be married

forever

because

of the age difference

because what I could provide

was you know money and and comfort but

also you know a physical part you know

the physical intimacy as I aged it was a

hundred percent likely I could not

provide the physical intimacy

and that by the time that happened

whoever I was with would be rich by them

just by the relationship

so one so the the thing that I knew had

to happen

is that the things I was providing would

be taken for granted because they would

eventually be transferred in enough

quantity that they could divorce me and

be rich at the same time

so my benefit of keeping them you know

alive went to zero because they could do

it themselves and they were already rich

and any benefit I could bring from you

know my awesome physical intimacy would

eventually shrink to zero

am I right

what else am I providing

my great personality

there are plenty of guys with good

personalities

was that I'm so fun to be with that

somebody just has to be with me in the

room nope turns out there are plenty of

people who are fun to be with in a room

I didn't have anything

so I said to myself on day one I'm

bringing this amazing physical intimacy

that uh that I provide

a financial bubble that anybody would

want

a lifestyle of somebody who's a

celebrity

don't you think that some people sort of

you know would like a little bit that

their partner is a celebrity especially

if it's a male

yeah I mean they're all these little

benefits things I could provide that

other people couldn't provide

but it was a hundred percent guaranteed

from day one

that what I could provide would shrink

to zero

so therefore since I believe in a

transactional world at least we're

involves men and women I knew that

marriage was a rental and not a by Tone

now if you thought marriage was a buy to

own but you were in a similar situation

to me well you missed the signs you

missed the signals the signals were all

there you weren't going to get younger

but she was definitely going to get

richer right it was all there you should

have been able to predict it easily

all right

Judy says love is not transactional

well as soon as uh your guy stops giving

you stuff

check in with me see how that worked out

are you going to continue renting yeah I

think renting is all that makes sense in

from my age

I'm at the age where every woman wants

to marry me if she can stand me for five

minutes

do you know why

why does every woman want to marry me if

they can even stand me for five minutes

right because I'm near death and I'm

rich

I'm near death and I'm rich that's like

a really good deal

transactionally that's something that

most people would say you know this

might suck for 10 to 15 years

but if I could if I can if I could gut

it out for 10 to 15

. I'm rich

I'm rich

yeah so I'm very very popular so to the

whoever it is who who said I'm an incel

it's definitely not involuntary

uh I could get laid three times a day

it wouldn't take any effort whatsoever

none

all right

um

get another dog

uh why would you leave your to your

shitty new wife yeah who else is going

to get it

you might like your wife

um

someone as old as you yeah that's

possibility too

but two of those times will be with

David what

uh

did anyone in particular help you change

your mind to how you view women in

relationships

that's a good question uh now

I can't think uh I don't believe there's

any Guru or anything and by the way I

don't have this is nothing new

my my views on this are at least 25

years old but I definitely had different

views when I was young as I explained

early on early on I thought if I did

what women said they want wanted of men

that that would make them happy

have any any of you ever fell for that

if any of you men fell for that

the women will tell you exactly what

they want

and then you say ah I just have to give

them that and then they'll be happy you

fall in for that trick

yeah it took me decades to realize you

know like my pattern recognition wasn't

kicking in all the pattern was so so

clear it takes you a while to realize

that the operating system of women

is to be perpetually unhappy because men

think if I just solve this problem today

I'll be good tomorrow

they don't know they never catch on that

tomorrow is a new problem so the the

operating system then is to drain

resources operating system of women

is to drain resources for men by being

dissatisfied that's what works within a

relationship so dissatisfaction is a

requirement of the system it's not

today's problem that you're going to

solve

and once you realize that's unsolvable

you realize that women are essentially

toxic unless you have a combined

objective to have children

too strong the women are toxic to men

unless you have a shared mission

too strong

if you do have a shared Mission it could

work out great a shared Mission would be

um you want to have kids

you have the same lifestyle preferences

you like your friends you like doing the

same things lots of good reasons to be

married now anything I say bad about

relationships does not apply to all

people

I mean that's the thing we always get

wrong the problem with marriage is we

apply it which we think it applies to

all people at best it works for 20

percent

like really well it'll work you know

well enough for more than 20 but 20 are

killing it

and the rest kind of struggling or wish

they hadn't done it yeah

now women are toxic to men

unless they have a shared Mission and

then the man doesn't mind the resources

being deployed because that's where the

man wants them to be deployed

I I think I just red built the living

hell out of Erica the excellent

I'm just looking at your comments

all right uh that ladies and gentlemen

is all the red pilling and persuasion

you need for today go watch the rest of

the news and find out how much it sucks

compared to the awesomeness that was

this

and goodbye to YouTube talk to you

tomorrow