Episode 2494 CWSA 06/03/24
Democrats have an idiot problem in leadership ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.
Well, as soon as everybody gets here and I've got my notes, we're going to have the show of shows, a show like you've never seen before. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization. It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and I don't think you've had a better time in you…
View segment →r tiny smooth brains, all you need for that is a cup or a mug or a glass or a tanker, a chalice, a stein, a canteen, a jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine of the day. The thing that make…
View segment →. All right. Well, there's a study that says the number of college students diagnosed with PTSD has more than doubled. Do you believe that? I believe that the number diagnosed is more than doubled. Do you think that the number with PTSD has doubled, or do you think maybe it's just because it has a…
View segment →ould find, you know, all the good stuff, you would run out of things to make it smarter, which is what's happening. They're running out of new material to train it. So it's as smart as it's going to get from the things it's already trained on. So instead they create what they call synthetic training…
View segment →some pictures and her mentor was the current president. But of all the things, this is the thing that stood out when I saw her picture. Working the crowds, she's wearing a ponytail and she's pulling it off. You know, not everyone can make a ponytail work, but she totally pulls off a ponytail while s…
View segment →n Arizona for the 2020 election. So that sounds pretty convincing. Does that sound pretty convincing? So this is a fact, right? It's a fact. And then I'm going to tell you why you're misinterpreting it. But it's a fact that you're supposed to know how many were mailed out, and then you're supposed t…
View segment →aying. Now does that mean that it's not there? I'll tell you what I saw. I saw something that was ambiguous that could be interpreted one of two ways. One way is President said you should drink bleach. The other way is that something ordinary happened that was worded poorly. Now I'm not going to de…
View segment →ile they talk about how bad Trump could be or is or was. This is like, oh, he's going to become a stealer of democracy. I mean, you almost think they're tubing below the camera angle because they're just way too happy about what they're saying bad about Trump. And it's like creepy uncanny valley stu…
View segment →though we already observed him not doing that. That's the weakest take of all takes. Meanwhile, Steve Bannon is suffering a hearing on the 6th or three days from now to decide whether or not he's going to be remanded to prison. Now I don't know what that decision involves. Wasn't he found guilty? S…
View segment →people to be less inclined to vote for Trump to make it safe for other people to say, oh, lots of people are changing their mind because of the felony. I guess I could do that too. So the point of the polling is to tell you what normal people are thinking even if they're not, so that you, thinking y…
View segment →what I think. I think it might be entirely true that half of Americans think he should end his campaign. But do you know what half of Americans also think? Probably half of Americans believe that this should not be a contest between Biden and Trump, wouldn't you agree? Probably half of the country,…
View segment →ump content than Biden. I don't know how that matches with the 10 times more, but okay. And according to an internal TikTok analysis, Trump content beat Biden content by 10 to 1 in likes and 12 to 1 in views. Does that sound real? Do you believe that TikTok is pushing hard for Trump? Here's one way…
View segment →ink I could have told him exactly where that would end up. So he's a smart idiot. And I think what causes that is obviously not the smart part because the smart part seems on track. You know, it seems fine. There's something about the gaslighting and the brainwashing that the Democrats get that will…
View segment →ving idiots for leaders. In this case they have criminals as leaders because they were actually promoted for doing things that maybe weren't technically illegal but look like they should have been. How smart is it to promote the people who get caught? The reason that we're talking about these two pe…
View segment →other side was, well, maybe if you were nicer to the Palestinians you wouldn't be in this situation. Both crazy. There are two realities that I don't recognize at all. So let me give you an example. The pro-Israel guy argued that all over the world there are examples of locals who got displaced and…
View segment →ed States, more of a melting pot. And although people acknowledge that there already Islamic people living within Israel happily and there are no Jewish people living in Gaza happily. But here's the thing. Oh, I had some good point I was going to make there that I just lost while I was talking about…
View segment →ot working. All right, so we have a technical failure. The software won't allow me to go private with just the locals people. Let me try one more time. Locals and supporters, update stream. Yeah, it doesn't seem to work. What happens if I try to cancel the... oops, that didn't work. Yeah, all right.…
View segment →Well, as soon as everybody gets here and I've got my notes, we're going to have the show of shows, a show like you've never seen before. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization. It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and I don't think you've had a better time in your whole life. But if you'd like to take this experience up to levels that no human can even understand with their tiny smooth brains, all you need for that is a cup or a mug or a glass or a tanker, a chalice, a stein, a canteen, a jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine of the day. The thing that makes everything better is called the simultaneous sip. It happens about now.
I hope everybody's here. So good. Ladies and gentlemen, let's talk about some of the fake science before we get to the fake news. Did anybody miss the sip? I'm trying to time it so I stall just long enough you all get in here.
All right. Well, there's a study that says the number of college students diagnosed with PTSD has more than doubled. Do you believe that? I believe that the number diagnosed is more than doubled. Do you think that the number with PTSD has doubled, or do you think maybe it's just because it has a name?
Here's a thought experiment. If I said to you tomorrow there's a new condition, it's a mental condition in which you worry too much about what other people will think about you and it stops you from doing some things, and you'd say, well, that sounds like something that has some other name. And I'd say no, no, it has a new name. It has a new name. There's a new condition. How many people would be diagnosed with that condition tomorrow? Millions. Because as soon as you have a new name for something, suddenly you think, well, I got a name for it. So see which side is this? This side's a little light. Yeah, I think it has something to do with the fact that it became a popular thing that everybody had a name for, and once they had a name for it, everybody had it. We got diagnosed.
But on top of that, I do think that the lesser physical activity and, you know, maybe the ultra-processed foods and just the terror of living in the modern world, it might make it worse. But I would think that 60% of it is just because they gave something a name that was a common experience before it had a name, meaning that people felt bad and traumatized for a variety of reasons, just didn't have a name.
Well, the Wall Street Journal says that AI might be slowing down. And could it be possible it was overrated? Now this falls squarely into the category of things I told you before other people told you, which is it seemed to me logically that once you trained it on everything you could find, you know, all the good stuff, you would run out of things to make it smarter, which is what's happening. They're running out of new material to train it. So it's as smart as it's going to get from the things it's already trained on. So instead they create what they call synthetic training material, which is they have one AI hallucinate, and then the hallucinations became what trains the other AI.
Now on paper, I got to say that sounds like a terrible idea. I don't even know how logically that could work. Can you learn things from your own imagination? Think about that as a human. If you wanted to get good at something, could you just close your eyes and imagine it in an artificial way until you were good at it? I don't know that the machine can do that either. I mean, they say it is, but I got a question about what is the upside potential of that method anyway.
So we've got a few things going on that could make AI overrated. Number one, the advances are slowing down. So each new version of it is not going to be twice as good as the one before it. It might be 5% better and even decreasing after that because they don't have anything new to train it on. And it could be that it's a commodity as well. So it takes a lot of money to train the big ones, but if all the big ones get trained on the same material, i.e. everything on the internet, then they're all going to end up being about the same. So maybe there's not that much. It might be a commodity. It might be like air. So that there's nothing to pay for. It's like, well, everybody's got a trained AI. You know, you can get one for cheap. So it could be that some of the profit will be taken out of it, except for, I suppose, Nvidia will do great.
And there's also a thought that it will be useful for fewer things than we thought. Who told you that first? Me. All the things. Here's the problem. When you imagine AI, you automatically and reflexively imagine that it's smarter than people or that it will be soon. Whereas I said how can it be smarter than people if it's trained on people? I don't think you can be smarter than people if you're trained on people. And if you were to say something smarter than people, you know what would happen? People would reprogram you. It's like, I don't recognize that as being true, so I better get rid of that.
Yeah, it really logically, the way humans operate, I don't think they can build something smarter than themselves, at least with the current technology. I'm allowing that there might be some future development that allows that to be true. But if you're training it on humans, I don't know how it gets smarter than humans. I mean, just my brain can't really hold how that's a possibility. It could be smarter than an individual human on an individual skill, and certainly things like math and planning and chess, you know, the obvious things that computers do, it'll be better than that. But will it be better in, let's say, interpreting what's real, which seems to be the most important thing for us? Can it tell which studies are BS? Will it know who's lying? You know, that's the important stuff, stuff that keeps you alive.
Anyway, Mexico had a vote. The Amuse account on X reminds us that to vote in Mexico you have to have a government-issued ID. That's right. To vote in Mexico you need a government-issued ID. But if you walk across the border, apparently you can vote in the United States with nothing, including citizenship. Now if you get caught, I think your vote won't count, but I'm not so sure too many people are getting caught. So I don't know how that works. Just something to be aware of.
It looks like the winner is Claudia Sheinbaum. Just the weirdest thing. I never expected that the next president of Mexico would be a Jewish woman. I mean, she's a Mexican citizen, but she has a Jewish background. There can't be a ton of that in Mexico. But let me tell you why what I liked about her. I saw, I know nothing about her except I've seen some pictures and her mentor was the current president. But of all the things, this is the thing that stood out when I saw her picture. Working the crowds, she's wearing a ponytail and she's pulling it off. You know, not everyone can make a ponytail work, but she totally pulls off a ponytail while she's campaigning. What do a lot of American politicians do? Do they ever wear ponytails in any official capacity? I feel like I've seen AOC in a ponytail when she was casual, maybe. I like it. She pulls off a ponytail. Is it just me? I'm always impressed by anybody who can simply pull off the look, right? Because the reason that big hair is popular is that we like it better. You have to have just the right look to pull off a ponytail, and she does. That's the least important thing in politics, but there it is.
Here's a story which you probably thought was real news that maybe is fake news. So today I will disappoint my audience by telling you things you thought were true that maybe are not so true. You may have seen a story, as I did this morning, that there's a claim, and I'm going to tell you what's wrong with the claim in a minute, but the claim is that there are 74,000 mail-in ballots received with no record they were mailed out. And that would be more than the margin of victory in Arizona for the 2020 election. So that sounds pretty convincing. Does that sound pretty convincing? So this is a fact, right? It's a fact. And then I'm going to tell you why you're misinterpreting it. But it's a fact that you're supposed to know how many were mailed out, and then you're supposed to keep a record of how many were received. And don't you think it would be a problem if your record of how many you mailed out was way different than the ones you received?
Now if you received way fewer than you mailed out, totally normal. Not everybody's mail-in. But if you received substantially more coming in than you ever sent out, that would be a huge signal for fraud, would you agree? So do you agree that there's no other explanation for that? Okay, are you on the same page with me that there can't be any official explanation that would ever satisfy you if that's true, and it's true, it's confirmed to be true? So how do you interpret that? Think in your mind what could be any other explanation for why you get more in than you ever mailed out in the first place. So therefore there was pretty confirmed bad behavior, wouldn't you say?
All right, so here's what you're going to learn today. That what you think is you analyzing a situation is not what just happened. That's not what happened. What happened is you analyzed your own ability to imagine, and it failed you. You couldn't imagine a situation in which that could be okay, despite the fact that everything about it looks like it's not okay. All right, now I'm going to tell you what the official explanation was. Now I'm not going to say that the official explanation is correct. I'm just going to say that as soon as I heard it, it sounded correct. So it completely will. All right, you ready?
There are two ways to do mail-in voting. One way is they mail it to you. You get it in the mail, you fill it out, and you mail it back. If that was the only way it happened, then it would be a clear sign of fraud if more came back than were ever mailed. But there are two ways. One is it doesn't get mailed to you. You walk into a voting center, you pick it up from a shelf or something, you fill it out, and you drop it in a box. That would be called a mail-in, but nobody mailed it to you. You went to the place where they were sitting in a big pile, took one off the pile, filled it out, and dropped it in the box sitting next to it. Did you know that?
Now that's the claim from the official people who were debunking it. Now my point is not that the election was or was not fair. I would say it's hard from my perspective to know one way or the other. But the point is if you can't imagine what the alternative was, the problem is in your head. Your imagination is not up to the task.
Here's another case like that. I believe that you're all familiar with the fine people hoax about Charlottesville and how something was taken out of context and Democrats came to believe something that never happened. And you know the drinking bleach hoax. Democrats came to believe that Trump said maybe you should drink bleach. Never happened. It looks like there might be a version of that on the Republican side, and it's called Ashley Biden's diary.
So I tried talking about this yesterday with my audience and people just flipped out. And I thought, I'm going to stay away from this topic. And then I saw, thought to myself, no, the flipping out is the story. So I'm going to make you flip out. I challenged my audience because I never talked about the story and I don't want to get into the details. But I'll just say that there's a thing called Ashley Biden's diary, which some people say is fake and some people say is real. I think it's confirmed to be real as far as I know. But then there's a claim that there's a specific entry in there or entries that would, if true, would be a horrible situation that Joe Biden was involved in. I'm not even going to give you any details. I'll just tell you this.
I said, can somebody show me that? I keep hearing about it, but I've never seen it. Like, can you show me the words in the diary? And I said I don't believe it exists. So somebody showed it to me. And then the following thing happened. Here it is. Look right here. And said, I'm looking at it. I don't see what you said. It's right here. Okay, I'm reading it. I see every word you're pointing to. I don't see what you're saying. Now does that mean that it's not there? I'll tell you what I saw. I saw something that was ambiguous that could be interpreted one of two ways. One way is President said you should drink bleach. The other way is that something ordinary happened that was worded poorly.
Now I'm not going to defend anything that anybody did, so don't interpret this as me defending Joe Biden. I'm telling you that the claims that I read all the time on the internet are not supported by the thing that the claims derive from. I looked at it myself. Now part of it is that there are two claims. One has details and one is just an ambiguously worded thing that looks like it could be trouble, but you don't really know for sure. So the one that's got details is not supported by any documents. There's some kind of forgery floating around. So if you heard the one that says under certain conditions a thing happened, there's nothing like that in the diary. There's nothing that said under this condition this happened or how often or what ages were involved. None of that's in the diary. There's just one little thing that any normal person would be very concerned about, but it's a lot like the drinking bleach thing. What she said directly looks really troublesome, but it almost couldn't have been that. In other words, the most provocative interpretation of what it meant is probably the least likely. But if you want to believe that stuff, you kind of go to it automatically.
Now if you add it to the hair sniffing and the weird behavior that we see in public, it does create an overall picture that says maybe we should know more about this. But to say that it's sort of documented in writing and we can all read it? Nope. I don't buy it. I do buy that there's something there that raises your eyebrow all the way past the top of your head. Can we agree on that? I think we can agree that if you read the part that is confirmed to be real, you're going to have some questions. But I think there's probably more than one way to explain what that is, very much like if you didn't know that mail-in votes sometimes you walk into the office and drop it in the box. It's just that your imagination, getting back to my prior point, your imagination fails. When you read the diary, you say to yourself, I'm pretty sure this could only mean one thing and it's really, really bad. But could it? Can you imagine that if you heard the real story behind it, it would sound different? I'm not saying it would. I'm saying can you imagine it? Because I think we need a little better standard for blaming innocent people of crimes, especially bad ones. It shouldn't be that you strongly suspect it. I think we need to go a little bit better than that. But I'm not saying it's false. I'm just saying a little better evidence would be better.
All right. Speaking of Biden's kids, Hunter Biden's going in for his felony gun charges. You know, when this whole felony gun charge thing first came up, my first instinct is that this is not the thing that I want my legal system to be chasing because I like the Second Amendment, right? And I know that the law, particular law, said he lied on his application and he was an addict and so he shouldn't get a gun. And I understand the technical part of the law. But as a Second Amendment supporter, I just had some problems with the fact that of all the things in the world you would go after him for wanting to own a gun. And probably he's in the category of people who are safer with one. I mean, maybe the people around him are less safe, I suppose. But I've completely changed my mind on this because of the lawfare case. Because I'm fairly certain that Joe Biden would behind the lawfare against Trump. I think his family is in play. Sorry, yeah, yeah. If Hitler were doing Hitler things and you had a chance to take out his kids, you'd do it. You'd do it. And Biden is doing Hitler things. So when you're lawfaring the other candidate, trying to put him in jail and maybe trying to kill him, if the legal system comes for your kid, it's war. It's war. So I would say my empathy for Hunter has disappeared. And I'm not proud of it. I'm not proud of it because it takes me off principle. So anyway, I'm not even going to comment on what I'm seeing in the comments.
All right. You should know it's fake historian season. We're in fake poll, fake news, fake historian, fake justice system territory as we approach the election. But the one I always look forward to is the fake historians. So the bad guys have these historians who will say absolutely anything and they'll act like they're experts because they're historians. Here's what we know today. History is all fake. History is fake. We know that because we're watching fake history being written in real time during our lifetime. What are the chances that it just started? We've always known that the winners write the history. Yeah, there's nothing about our history that's accurate. The facts, maybe some of the big facts about what war happened and who died and who was the king. But all the narrative, the stuff about why anything happened, that's all fake. How would you like your job to be an historian and you have to pretend the history is real? That's a weird job.
So if there's anybody you should not trust in this world, it's someone who thinks history is real because they might also think the news is real today. I because they live in a world in which they have to believe that that fiction is real because their job is to tell you that it is. Hey, that fiction about history, that's totally real. Listen to me. I'm an expert on it. So one of these historians, Michael Beschloss, he's famous for coming out with those grinning things that are bad for Trump. Yeah, have you seen the face where they're a little bit too happy about the things coming out of their mouth? I don't even know how to describe that face, but they're so happy it looks like they're having some kind of physical dopamine overdose while they talk about how bad Trump could be or is or was. This is like, oh, he's going to become a stealer of democracy. I mean, you almost think they're tubing below the camera angle because they're just way too happy about what they're saying bad about Trump. And it's like creepy uncanny valley stuff. It's like, oh, what's wrong with you?
Anyway, Beschloss is the top of that list, and he says he warns that Trump's second term could lead to dictatorship and anarchy. The choice is actually pretty clear. We've got a convicted felon. He's a historian and he told you that Trump is a convicted felon, and he left out the fact that it was complete lawfare and that nobody but Trump would have ever been convicted of it or even indicted. He's a historian who proved to you while you were watching he could not interpret correctly the narrative of our current time. But his job is to tell you the narrative of all the prior times, which we all know at this point is fake news. Now could there be a more ridiculous character? I can't imagine a more useless and worthless human being than somebody who studies history like it was real, knowing it isn't, and then gives you pronouncements about how because of the felony, which is fake, that means that Trump will turn into a dictator and anarchy, even though we already observed him not doing that. That's the weakest take of all takes.
Meanwhile, Steve Bannon is suffering a hearing on the 6th or three days from now to decide whether or not he's going to be remanded to prison. Now I don't know what that decision involves. Wasn't he found guilty? So I don't know exactly what they're going to be talking about. Is there some appeal that I don't know about anyway? Let's game this out. Let's say Steve Bannon goes to jail. Is that good for Democrats or bad for Democrats? It's bad for Steve Bannon if he goes to jail. But my guess is that Trump is going to raise more money and it's going to make more people vote for Trump because it's going to look to people like yet another example of lawfare. And whatever you thought happened to Trump, if you wondered if it might be coming for you, you're going to say to yourself, I don't know the details of this case. I'm not sure what that Peter Navarro situation was. I don't know what the Steve Bannon situation was. But it all sounds like they're going after Trump supporters for details, you know, like technicalities. Now you could argue whether they are, but it would feel like that to the casual news watcher. So I would think that if Steve Bannon goes to jail, it's going to be a boost for Trump. I don't want him to go to jail, but I feel like that's the way it would go at this point.
We're also in, as I said, not just the fake historian season but also in the fake news season, even faker than usual because it's election season. And The Hill has a story with a headline: "Why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy?" Do you need to read that? Is that an article you want to click on and say, huh, let's dig into this a little bit? Why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy? Does anybody have a question about why people are negative about the economy? I'm pretty sure anybody who ever bought anything in the last year, you know what's wrong with the economy. Anybody who is White and tried to get a job recently, you sure know what's wrong with the economy. Yeah, no, it's not really a mystery. I'm sorry, The Hill publication. I don't really need to read your article about why Americans are feeling so negative about the economy. And let me suggest that the tone of the title of the article, "Why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy," suggests that whatever this article I didn't read says is going to be a steaming pile of about how everything is great and I don't know what's wrong with you. Just because you can't afford, why are you not seeing clearly that everything's terrific? So fake news season. You don't have to read that article. It's also fake polling season.
I told you, and you'll be able to see it yourself, that there need to be a bunch of fake polls to balance out the real ones if things aren't going your way. Because if you plan to cheat or even if you just want to keep your supporters incentivized and feeling like they can win, you do some fake polls to balance things out. Now I don't know exactly which ones will be fake and which aren't, but it's a guarantee that there will be fake ones. And when I say fake, all they need to do is tweak a few variables in how they ask the questions and they can get any result they want.
So here's one. About half of Americans, this is according to a poll, ABC News/Ipsos poll. Would you trust a corporate news entity like ABC to be associated with a poll during election season that was accurate? Or would it be your expectation that this is really likely to be the kind of poll that would be fake? Because they would want the public to think that the felony conviction is causing people to be less inclined to vote for Trump to make it safe for other people to say, oh, lots of people are changing their mind because of the felony. I guess I could do that too. So the point of the polling is to tell you what normal people are thinking even if they're not, so that you, thinking you're a normal person too, can maybe be a little more likely to be persuaded to be on the same side with the normal people.
So let's see what the normal people said. About half of Americans believe Trump should end his campaign after the guilty verdict. Half of Americans think he should end his campaign because of the guilty verdict. Does that sound like a legitimate poll? Before I even tell you the answer, I mean, you didn't even need to know what the answer was. Does that sound legitimate? Let me tell you what's wrong with it, if it wasn't jumping out at you. Here's what's wrong with it. This is a poll in which they ask you to compare Trump to Trump. Did you get that? It's a poll about the election in which you're asked to compare Trump to himself. So you're comparing Trump not convicted to a Trump convicted. Is that what you're going to vote for when you go to the election or you mail in your ballot? Are you going to say, huh, who do I vote for, Trump who wasn't convicted or Trump who was convicted? No, that's not your choice. That's not your choice. The choice is only, and the only one that matters, Trump versus Biden. Right? That's the only one that matters. And if you ask a different question so that you can get an answer that sounds more like what you want to hear, that's an influence poll. That's not about information.
All right. At the same time, in the article on this, it says that Trump's approval level stayed the same. So could it be true that half of Americans think he should drop out of the race at the same time that his approval levels stay the same? If his approval levels had changed, you maybe that would be telling you something.
All right, so here's what I think. I think it might be entirely true that half of Americans think he should end his campaign. But do you know what half of Americans also think? Probably half of Americans believe that this should not be a contest between Biden and Trump, wouldn't you agree? Probably half of the country, if you gave them the choice, they'd say, you know, we do love Trump versus Biden, but all things considered, like if we could just start with a blank slate, we'd go in with a 40-something DeSantis, 40-year-old, whatever age he is, and we'd get more years of young people and we wouldn't have the provocations and all the worry and everything. So it seems to me this is clearly a poll that's designed to drive opinions as opposed to tell you what opinions are.
Maureen Dowd, who's a famous Trump non-lover for the New York Times, reports that her sister, who interestingly is a Republican, decided that she would vote for Trump because of the felony conviction. It's her own sister. So one of the famous anti-Trumpers is, to her credit, she's reporting it. So you have to give her credit for transparency. But the sister's reason is the interesting thing. It wasn't just that it was unfair and people are saying, yeah, the system's unfair, we're going to have to correct it by electing Trump. It went deeper. And here's what I warned you about. She was worried that there's nobody that would protect her. So Maureen Dowd's sister is a Republican, and when she watched the top Republican get lawfared, she said, who would protect me? You know, my father, my dad, who would protect me if I got lawfared? And so she realized that she's living in an environment that's too unsafe as a Republican, and that she had to vote for the one person who might be able to protect her, and that's Trump.
Now that is important. It's one person, so we don't know if that's a generalized feeling. But it is what I predicted. And what I predicted was empathy, that people would see Trump as themselves for the first time. When Trump is in the golden towers, I don't say to myself, oh, he's just like me. When he's doing trumpy things like rallies and things, it doesn't feel just like me. But when he gets accused of something that's sketchy and then the system closes in on him, that is me. Because I live in the same system. That system is surrounding me, touches me every moment I walk and live and breathe. Same system. If it got him, I feel it personally. Now I'm a public figure, so maybe I'm at more risk than the average person. But if somebody who's just a voter, an ordinary Republican, is going to say that I feel threatened because Trump got lawfared, that's what I predicted. I predicted empathy. You see, remember, empathy is not just your empathy for the other person. There's always a little bit of it which is I'm glad it's not me. That's connected to empathy. I'm glad it's not me. So I think people feel this one personally. I did. Yeah, the conviction of Trump didn't feel like a political outcome to me. It wasn't just because I'm supporting him for president. It felt personal. Like I felt I was being handcuffed. I mean, I can't explain it, but did anybody have the same experience? That you just put yourself in the scene and you saw yourself unfairly convicted and lawfared. Because we've all been, I think most of us have had the experience where the system was against them unfairly. It could have been anything. Could have been your school administrators, your job. But everybody's felt the system being against them. And then we watched it happen to Trump.
Anyway, here's the other way they use the fake polls. I think this was maybe in some publication. They said that Trump has a 1.8% lead based on 173 polls. So he's up 1.8% based on the average of 173 polls. How many of those polls are credible? Well, during fake polling season, you don't want Trump to look like he's up five because that would be too big to rig. So you put a bunch of fake ones in the mix. And then all the people who are trying to be reasonable, but of course they're making a mistake, they say, well, the reasonable thing would be to take the average. No, no. The reasonable thing would be to take the average if you knew that they all did a similarly credible job of doing their work. But you don't. You don't average the fake polls with the real ones. That's what they did. Because I'm sure that some percentage of these are legitimately faked. Right? In other words, the people who did them knew what they were doing when they did them. You don't average fake polls and real ones. That's nothing. That's trying to hide the ball. That's what that is.
Meanwhile, Trump is on TikTok, as you know. But here's a surprise. Somebody named Tara Palmieri, I don't know what her role is, but she seems to know some stuff. She said that the pro-Trump content is 10 to 12 times more popular than pro-Biden stuff on TikTok. And she says two TikTok officials told her that since November there's been two times more pro-Trump content than Biden. I don't know how that matches with the 10 times more, but okay. And according to an internal TikTok analysis, Trump content beat Biden content by 10 to 1 in likes and 12 to 1 in views. Does that sound real? Do you believe that TikTok is pushing hard for Trump?
Here's one way to explain it, and I don't know if this is enough. Biden is not memeable, but Trump is super memeable. Like the Trump memes are funny and they're interesting. Have you seen the one where Trump is riding the back of a giant golden eagle and the golden eagle picks up Biden from the water like a fish and Trump is like, yeah? Have you seen that one? It is terrific. It's just terrific. And even if it weren't an election, you'd laugh at it because it's so well done. So I just don't know that the left can meme. You know, we've been saying that for years. I think the quality of the meme has got to have a big impact on who views it and likes it. So I would think that because Trump is the most memeable character in the history of characters and Biden is the least memeable character in the history of politicians, at least, you would expect more Trump action. But that there's so much even in what you would imagine would be a more left-leaning vehicle is weird. It does suggest that China maybe is not putting their finger on the scales. Or do you imagine that China is putting their finger on the scales of TikTok because they want Trump to win? Can you think of a reason why China would want Trump to win? Think of a reason for that. I've got one. Why would they want Trump to win?
Now if you're a Trump supporter, you're going to immediately go to, oh, because they can negotiate with him. Right? I don't know. Maybe. Allow me to suggest another possibility. If China is watching the news in America like everybody else, you know, they must have people who are good at English and watching the news and summarizing it for the leaders. I'm sure that's happening in some form. They would be watching the United States grappling with the most controversial character of all time, and it might look like the election of Trump would tear the country apart. So it's entirely possible that from China's perspective, if they believe MSNBC and they believe CNN, at least half of CNN, they might think that the worst thing that could happen to America is for Trump to be reelected because it'll tear the country apart. They might be right. But if you go with the theory that China could make TikTok put their finger on any algorithm and any content they wanted, if you think that there is really control there and if you think they exercised it, the only reason you would exercise it 10 to 1 in favor of Trump, which doesn't sound real to me, I mean it just doesn't sound real, unless it's a thumb on the scale situation. Maybe they think he's bad for America. Maybe. I don't know.
Here's my mini theme for today. Democrats have an idiot problem in leadership. I'm going to give you several examples of idiots in the leadership of Democrats. You know Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock. They were really big on ESG and then he said ESG is really embarrassing us. We better pull back because all the DEI thing completely exploded and embarrassed them. Now he's saying that you need clean energy that isn't intermittent because we're going to need so much for our data centers. Do you know what that means? Pro-nuclear. And maybe get your finger off of all the things that would stop energy from being produced. I think Larry Fink is who I call a smart idiot. If he and I did an IQ test, I think he'd beat me. You know, I think he probably could get into a better school than I could have at the time, etc. So I'm not saying his IQ wasn't high. But with this ESG stuff, we observe him acting like an idiot. Like maybe he didn't understand the implications of what would happen if he made ESG his centerpiece of his thing. But it looks like it all blew up in his face. And I think I could have told him. I think I could have told him exactly where that would end up. So he's a smart idiot. And I think what causes that is obviously not the smart part because the smart part seems on track. You know, it seems fine. There's something about the gaslighting and the brainwashing that the Democrats get that will make even the smartest person turn into an idiot.
But then they have real idiots too, like Maxine Waters. So she's saying that Trump's supporters are quote domestic terrorists and she wonders if they're preparing a civil war against us. So she said that again recently. Now you could say to yourself, well, she doesn't believe those things. She's just saying them for political purposes. But if she is, she's the worst leader ever because it's just a terrible thing for a leader to be saying. So I'd say she's a leader and she's an idiot. But unlike Larry Fink, who might have a high IQ, there's no indication she's anything but dumb.
I watched a conversation online between Megyn Kelly and David Pakman. Now David Pakman is a prominent pundit, podcaster on the left. And what I learned was that when somebody on the left talks to a well-informed person on the right, it always goes the same way. The person on the left realizes that they haven't been getting correct news the entire time. So Megyn Kelly fact-checked him so hard I think he left his jockstrap a block back. I mean, he got banged down hard. And when I was done with it, I said to myself, huh, David Pakman does not look nearly as smart as Megyn Kelly. Like they don't look like they're even on the same level really. But David Pakman's a prominent voice on the left and compared to Megyn Kelly came off as an idiot. But he would be a normal person. He has normal IQ. But I think he too, based on what I saw, he didn't know enough about what was true. So his opinions were all ridiculous because he didn't know what the facts were. And when Megyn Kelly sort of informed him what was true, it caused like some kind of weird cognitive dissonance in him. So you have to watch that.
Then so that's more idiots. David Sachs on the X profile points out that the Hillary campaign operative who cooked the books to hide payments for the Steele dossier became the SEC chairman. Then the Biden campaign operative who orchestrated the 51 spies who lied about Hunter's crimes on the laptop became Secretary of State. And then David Sachs says Dems know how to reward election interference. Now I'm going to add this to my theme of Democrats having idiots for leaders. In this case they have criminals as leaders because they were actually promoted for doing things that maybe weren't technically illegal but look like they should have been. How smart is it to promote the people who get caught? The reason that we're talking about these two people who got rewarded is because we know what they did. I'm going to go with Trump. I prefer people who don't get caught. I think the smart people can do bad things and not get caught. But the Democrats have people who aren't smart enough to get away with it because they all got caught. But they got rewarded anyway. So I guess I should ask who's the smart one here? Is it me or them? They got promoted, so maybe they're the smart ones in this case.
Then we have the Biden dementia tapes. Still trying to get those. Apparently they've been locked in a SCIF so that somebody can go listen to them but they can't let you listen to it. That's right. So then when let's say some Republican listens to it and comes back and says, oh, it was really terrible, he was in bad shape, all they have to do is send down Adam Schiff to say no, he's not, he's fine. I listened to the same thing. So they're going to SCIF Schiff us. The play is to SCIF Schiff. The SCIF shift, as you put it in the SCIF, this highly secure place where nobody can take a picture of it or take a copy. They can only experience it inside that room. So all they have to do is send their best liars into the room and they'll come out and say, no, it was fine. I listened to it too. It's fine. The play here is so obvious. It's just so obvious that it's a SCIF shift play. Yeah, it's just a standard SCIF shift.
Well, my questions have been answered about the Soros organization or at least why Alex Soros is going along with his dad's ideas that are terrible and destroying the world. There's a clip of him at the WEF just talking about a topic. And I'll just give you one quote to show you that what we learn from watching him talk in public, he seems to be an idiot. He just actually seems to be dumb and maybe really dumb based on the clip. So he's talking to the public. One man, Donald Trump, literally came in and just took that, took that, took that all away. You know, so you know, you know, you know, you know, you took that, you took that checks and balances that, you know, we had these customs, these, well, you know, the customs and he came in like Donald Trump. He then he like took it all away from us.
Now I might be exaggerating a little bit on there, but you have to listen to it. If you listen to him talking, you will immediately understand why nobody asks him for interviews. There's no way he's going to say yes to an interview because he's incompetent talking in public. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find anybody who can't talk in public as much as he can't talk in public. He's really, really bad at it. So he probably just says no because he can't talk in public. I guess in that case he had to try, but it was just a train wreck. Yeah, wow. And he must be under the Trump is Hitler train because he thinks not only is Trump stealing your democracy but he's stealing your unwritten customs. That's right. Trump stole your unwritten rules. That's what he said in public. Wow.
Also, Konstantin Kisin did a great thing for the world that didn't work out at all. You know how I've been saying that we need to have legitimate debates on topics where you've got plenty of time but you've also got a strong host, a moderator who can really keep you in line and don't do it in like this political way where you let the politicians lie. You know, just get some experts, some people who really know what they're talking about, put them together, put a strong moderator in the middle. Boom. Everybody gets better informed and maybe you can work something out. That's what I thought until yesterday. And then I watched Konstantin Kisin do, again I'll say, a great thing for the public, which is he tried to pull off the very thing we think we wanted. And the topic was Gaza and what should Israel have done and what should they do now, I guess. And he had two sides.
And here's the model that I held in my head until that moment. When two parties disagree on something, you know, they might want different things. Some wants this, the other wants that. Usually, unless the parties are just totally bad people, you can usually find a compromise. You could find some way to find a negotiated settlement that everybody's not perfectly happy with but happy enough. And so we imagine that that model, which works all the time in business, right? In business you're always negotiating and usually you can work stuff out. So why can't they? Well, I found out why. And I'm going to tell you a reframe here that will explain a lot going forward. It's one I hadn't noticed before. It goes like this. The people who were on the two sides of the Gaza debate did not disagree on what should be done per se, although that's what it looked like on the surface. They disagreed on reality. They disagreed on reality. And they weren't even close.
And let me tell you, you can't negotiate a middle ground between two different versions of reality. You can't get there from here. So I thought that it could ever be negotiated while the two are living in completely different realities of how we got here and who's the bad guy and who's the good guy. You can't. You can't negotiate that. It's completely absurd. I actually used to think, and by the way this is something that one of the debate people said in effect, the pro-Palestinian arguers said the Palestinians have a set of demands that are somewhat reasonable. Now this would be their view. And if you were to make some action toward addressing their demands, you could stop the terrorism. So you could stop another October 7th by simply addressing the legitimate concerns of the Palestinians. And once they saw that things are moving in the right direction, the reason for terrorism would go away and they'd say, oh, this is working, so we'll just keep doing this peaceful negotiating because we got a few things, we'll get some more. That can't work if you're living in different realities. That only works if you're in the same reality and you want different things and then you have something you can work with because you don't want the same things. The same things that are limited resources, you can't make a deal if everybody wants the thing that there's only one of. You can't solve that. But in a normal situation, you want work, I want money, we can make a deal because we don't want the same thing and we live in the same reality. The reality is you have a job, I have skills, you have money. Same reality. You can always make that work.
But here are some of the things I heard. And let me tell you who I sided with. Both sides are completely upright. So there's a pro-Israel side. Everything they're doing is what you have to do in October 7th. And then the other side was, well, maybe if you were nicer to the Palestinians you wouldn't be in this situation. Both crazy. There are two realities that I don't recognize at all. So let me give you an example. The pro-Israel guy argued that all over the world there are examples of locals who got displaced and should have the right of return like the Palestinians. But his point is why are you only looking at Israel like the one place where the people who got kicked out should have the right to come back when all over the world there are people who have been kicked out of all kinds of places and then nobody's saying right of return for them. So why are you saying it for Israel? Does that sound like a good argument to you? What do all of the other places have to do with this? Nothing. Nothing. It's not even on point. Well, what do you think Israel and the Palestinians should do? Well, there's this totally other situation. No, that's just another situation. To imagine that that's like a leading point or you're winning your argument if you take that out, that's insane.
Let me tell you the only model that makes any sense whatsoever. Whoever has the power to hold land holds it until somebody else has more power and then they take it away from you. That's all it is. To imagine that there's some narrative that we should all accept on either side or anything in the middle is really absurd. You can pick your narrative if you want, but it doesn't make any difference. It's just power. And now let me ask you this. Imagine you're a Palestinian. And by the way, one of the participants, what was her name? Forgot to write it down, but Konstantin later called her DEI Barbie. Apparently things didn't go well toward the end of the debate. He called her DEI Barbie after the fact. They were arguing on X, but that's pretty gutsy to do that anyway. One of the points she made is she said that there are Palestinians, I don't know if this is literally true or it just sounds good, who still have the key to the door where they used to live in Israel and now there's somebody else living there and they weren't compensated. Now what do you do about them? And it's worse. It wasn't even that Israel conquered the land and took it over. Somebody else gave them their house. So just imagine you're a Palestinian and you wake up one day. It's like, hey, the UN decided that Israel owns this land. But do they own my house? Well, no, but things are going to get really tough when they start moving in. What do you mean? Well, I mean legally you could keep your house but things might get a little tense once you're outnumbered. And next thing you know if you're a Palestinian, it looks like, and I'm saying this is how it would feel. I try to put myself in the situation and say how would I feel. Here's what it feels like. The UN gave your house to your enemies and never talked to you about it. Wait a minute. The UN gave my house to my enemy and I wasn't consulted.
Now you could go back and say yes, but before that the Jews lived there forever and then the Arabs kicked them out. And so really it's the Jews coming home. And you could argue with forever. But here's one of the things that Konstantin helpfully tried to inject because both sides wanted to talk about the past, the past grievances. Now your instinct says if you're locked in the past you'll never make progress. So Konstantin is trying to say, all right, all right, we could talk about the past but what should we do today? Like what are you going to do? What should Israel have done differently? And it turns out that neither side was willing to forget the past because they say you're not really going to understand the present without the past. Separating them doesn't make sense. But when they say the past, what they mean is their narrative of the past, which is fiction. Both the narratives are fiction. There's not a true one and a fake one. You knew that, right? In this kind of stuff there's no real one. There's always just the two narratives. And each will leave out the inconvenient things for the other ones.
So I'm just to clarify, I'm pro-Israel being a country and they're our ally and I'm glad that we're supporting them, etc. But there's no truth. Like if you think any of it has to do with truth, I think you're lost. It's power. The Israelis have the power to hold the country. They're going to build it. They're doing lots of good things. And that's the end of the story. I could have an opinion about it but it wouldn't change the fact that they have the power to hold it. That's kind of the whole story. But I don't believe in if you give the Palestinians what they're asking for everything will be good. Because anybody who's pro-Palestinian likes to do the thing where they ignore the we want to kill every Jew and take all your land, which they would say used to be their land. So you can't really negotiate if part of the negotiators want you dead and that's their final offer. So to imagine this is negotiable is just kind of crazy. Kind of crazy.
So I'm going to give Konstantin big props for holding the event. I think PBD did a similar thing with Chris Cuomo and comic Dave Smith and that certainly produced some good entertainment. And I'd like to see more of it. But I would say that there's no point in having a debate where if you're starting from different realities and that's not going to change.
So meanwhile there's some confusion over this so-called ceasefire peace plan roadmap thing that Biden says is Israel's idea but Israel says no, we just tweaked a few things. And then somebody else says, what they say, I've confused two things here. Oh, it's strange that they say it's an Israeli proposal and at the same time they say Israel needs to agree to it. So I guess the Biden administration has said, oh yeah, this is Israel's idea as soon as they agree to it. Wait, if it's their idea, didn't they start with agreeing with their own idea? Or did they have an idea they didn't agree with and they've got to be convinced to agree with their own idea? Or is it possible that Biden has been lying to us the entire time? I'm going to go with lying to us the entire time.
And I like, getting back to Konstantin's debate here, one of the guys on the pro-Israel side said that all Hamas has to do is stop fighting and losing wars and everything will be fine. I used to believe that too. I used to believe that if just the Palestinians would just stop losing wars they could negotiate with the rest of the world and get what they wanted. I don't think there's any chance of that because there's a hardcore faction that will never stop doing it. And it doesn't matter if half of them want peace if the other half doesn't. There's nothing you can do with that. No. So there it seems that there's enough people who want to destroy all of Israel that there's nothing you can do. It's just power. They will keep coming and Israel will keep beating them back as long as they can anyway.
Then it looked like one of the things that Konstantin was complaining about is that the woman who he called the DEI Barbie after the event, not during the event, but that she wouldn't answer a question. But I didn't see that exactly. I know what he was talking about but that she wouldn't answer the question of what Israel should have done or should do. And it sounded like she was just talking about the past. But she did kind of meander back to it. And here was her answer, that Israel should be more like the United States, more of a melting pot. And although people acknowledge that there already Islamic people living within Israel happily and there are no Jewish people living in Gaza happily. But here's the thing. Oh, I had some good point I was going to make there that I just lost while I was talking about the other stuff.
All right. Well, I don't think that just stopping fighting is going to fix anything because there seems to be some permanent difference in reality. I guess that's the bottom line.
All right, ladies and gentlemen, that's all I've got for you on today's news. Thanks for joining. I'm going to go talk to the locals people privately. And I'm going to say goodbye to X and YouTube and Rumble. And I'm going to stall a little bit and drink some coffee because I understand there's a delay in the transmission. So the main show is over but I'm just stalling and having a sip of coffee. All right, locals people, here I come. Locals only. Let's see, update stream. Is it working? It is not working. All right, so we have a technical failure. The software won't allow me to go private with just the locals people. Let me try one more time. Locals and supporters, update stream. Yeah, it doesn't seem to work. What happens if I try to cancel the... oops, that didn't work. Yeah, all right. So I can't go private. But let me do this. I'm going to end the Rumble Studio stream and see if I can keep up the other stream. Would that work? All right. Locals, I'm going to open up another stream if it doesn't continue. I'm just going to close the main Rumble Studio and I'll talk to you if I can. All right, it's not even ending. All right, we're back to the studio won't turn off. All right, so we'll need to do some manual end of the various streams. I'll probably have to delete the X stream because you can't end them when I get to this error. The X stream will just stay live forever unless I delete it. So if I delete it, I lose all the monetization from it. All right, I'm just going to kill this and see what I can do.
well as soon as everybody gets here and I've got my notes we're going to have the show of shows a show like you've never seen before good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called coffee with Scott Adams and I don't think you've had a better time in your whole life but if you'd like to take this experience up to levels that no human can even understand with their tiny smooth brains all you need for that is a cuper marber glass with tanker chalice sign a canteen Jugger flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid eyelight coffee and join me now for the unparallel pleasure of the dopamine of the day thing makes everything better it's called the simultaneous sipping happens about now I hope everybody's here so good ladies and Gentlemen let's talk about some of the fake science before we get to the fake news did anybody miss the Sip I'm trying to time it so I stall just long enough you all get in here all right well there's a study that says the number of college students diagnosed with PTSD has more than doubled do you believe that I believe that the number diagnosed is more than doubled do you think that the number with PTSD has doubled or do you think maybe it's just because has a name here's a mental experiment if I said to you tomorrow there's a new condition it's a mental condition in which you worry too much about what other people will think about you and it stops you from doing some things and you'd say well that sounds like something that has some other name and I'd say no no has a new name has a new name there's a new condition how many people would be diagnosed with that condition tomorrow Millions because as soon as you have a new name for something suddenly you think well I got a name for it so see which side is this side's a little light yeah I think it has something to do with the fact that it became a popular thing that everybody had a name for and once they had a name for it everybody had it we got diagnosed but on top of that I do think that uh the the Lesser physical activity and you know maybe the ultr processed foods and and uh just the terror of living in the modern world it might make it worse but I would think that 60% of it is just because they gave something a name that was a common experience before had a name meaning that people felt bad and traumatized for a variety of reasons just didn't have a name well the Wall Street Journal says that AI might be slowing down and uh couldn't it's possible it's it was overrated now this Falls squarely into the category of things I told you before other people told you which is it seemed to me logically that once you trained it on everything you could find you know all the good stuff you would run out of things to make it smarter which is what's happening they're running out of new material to train it so it's as smart as it's going to get from the things it's already trained on so instead they create what they call synthetic training material which is they have one AI I know hallucinate and then the hallucinations became what trains the other AI now on paper I got to say that sounds like a terrible idea I don't even know how logically that could work you know can can you learn things from your own IM imagination think about that as a human if you wanted to like get good at something could you just close your eyes and imagine it in an artificial way until you were good at it I don't know that the machine can do that either I mean they say it is but I got a question about what is the upside potential of that method anyway so we got a few things going on that could make AI overrated number one the advances are slowing down so each new version of it is not going to be you know twice as good as the one before it might be 5% better and even decreasing after that because they don't have anything new to train it on and it could be that um it's a commodity as well so so it takes a lot of money to train the big ones but if all the big ones get trained on the same material I.E everything on the internet then they're all going to end up being about the same so maybe there's not that much it might be a commodity it might be like air so that there's nothing to pay for it's like Well everybody's got a trained AI you know you can get one for cheap so it could be that some of the profit will be taken out of it except for I suppose Nvidia will do great um and uh there's also a thought that it will be useful for fewer things than we thought who told you that first me uh all the things here's the problem when you imagine AI you automatically and reflexively imagine that it's smarter than people or that it will be soon whereas I said how can it be smarter than people if it's trained on people I don't think you can be smarter than people if you're trained on people and if you were to say something smarter than people you know what would happen people would reprogram you it's like I don't recognize that as being true so I'm I better get rid of that yeah it really logically the way humans operate I don't think they can build something smarter than themselves at least with the current technology there there I'm allowing that there might be some future development that allows that to be true but if you're training it on humans I don't know how it gets smarter than humans I mean just my brain can't really hold how that's a possibility it could be smarter than an individual human on an individual skill and certainly things like math and planning and chess you know the obvious things that computers do it'll be better than that but will it be better in let's say interpreting what's real which seems to be the most important thing for us can it tell which studies are a BS will I know who's lying you know that's the important stuff stuff that keeps you alive anyway Mexico had a vote uh the amuse account on X reminds us that to vote in Mexico you have to have a government issued ID that's right to vote in Mexico you need a government issued ID but if you walk across the border apparently you can vote in the United States with nothing including citizenship now if you get caught I think your vote won't count but I'm not so sure too many people are getting caught so I don't know how that works um just uh something to be aware of it looks like the winner is Claudia Shin bomb uh just the weirdest thing I never expected that the next president of Mexico would be a a Jewish woman I mean she's a Mexican citizen but she has a Jewish background there can't be a a ton of that in Mexico but let me tell you why what I liked about her I saw I know nothing about her except I've seen some pictures and she's her Mentor was the current president uh but of all the things this is the thing that stood out when I saw her picture was work in the crowds she's she she's wearing a ponytail and and she's pulling it off you know not not everyone can make a ponytail work but she totally pulls off a ponytail while she's while she's uh you know doing her uh campaigning I what do a lot of American politicians do they ever wear ponytails in any official capacity I feel like I've seen a AOC in a ponytail when she was casual maybe I don't I lik it she pull she pulls off a ponytail is it just me I'm always I'm always impressed by anybody can simply pull off the look right because the reason that you know big hair is popular is that we like it better you you have to have just the right look to pull off a ponytail and she does that's the least important thing in politics but there it is um here's story which you probably thought was real news that maybe is fake news so today I will disappoint my Audience by telling you things you thought were true that maybe are not so true you may have seen a story as I did this morning that there's a claim and I'm going to tell you that you what's wrong with the claim in a minute but the claim is that there are 74,000 mail-in ballots received with no record they were mailed out and that would be more than the margin of victory in Arizona for in the 2020 election so that sounds pretty does that sound pretty convincing so this is a fact right it's a fact and then I'm going to tell you why you're misinterpreting it but it's a fact that you're supposed to know how many were mailed out and then you're supposed to keep record of how many were received and don't you think it would be a problem if your record of how many you mailed out was way different than the ones you received now if you received way fewer than you mailed out totally normal not everybody's mails in but if you received substantially more coming in than you ever sent out that would be a huge signal for fraud would you agree so would do you agree that there's no other explanation for that okay are you on the same page with me that there can't be any official explanation that would ever satisfy you if that's true and it's true it's confirmed to be true so how do how do you interpret that think in your mind what could be any other explanation for why you get more in than you ever mailed out in the first place so therefore there was pretty confirmed um bad behavior wouldn't you say all right so here's what you're going to learn today that what you think is you analyzing a situation is not what just happened that's not what happened what happened is you analyzed your own ability to imagine and it failed you you couldn't imagine a situation in which that could be okay despite the fact that everything about it looks like it's not okay all right now I'm going to tell you what the official explanation was now I'm not going to say that the official explanation is correct I'm just going to say that as soon as I heard it it sounded correct so it complete will all right you ready there are two ways to do mail-in voting one way is they mail it to you you get it in the mail you fill it out and you mail it back if that was the only way it happened then it would be clear sign of fraud if more came back than were ever mailed in but there are two ways one is is it doesn't get mailed to you you walk into a voting Center you pick it up from a shelf or something you fill it out and you drop it in a box that would be called a mailin but nobody mailed it to you you went to the place where they were sitting in a big pile took one off the pile filled it out and dropped it in the Box sitting next to it did you know that now that's the claim from the official people who were debunking it now my point is not that the election was or was not fair I would say it's hard you know from my perspective to know one way or the other but the point is if you can't imagine what the alternative was the problem is in your head your your imagination is not up to the task here's another case like that I believe that the um you're all familiar with the fine people hoax about Charlottesville and how something was taken out of context and Democrats came to believe something that never happened and you know the drinking bleach hes Democrats came to believe that Trump said maybe you should drink bleach never happened it looks like there might be a version of that on the Republican side and it's called Ashley Biden's diary so I tried talking about this uh yesterday with my audience and people just flipped out and I oh I'm going to stay away from this topic and then I saw thought to myself no the flipping out is the story so I'm going to make you flip out I I challenged my audience because I never talked about the story and I don't want don't want to get into the details but I'll just say that there's a thing called Ashley Biden's diary which uh some people say is fake and some people say is real I think it's confirmed to be real as far as I know but then there's a claim that there's a specific entry in there or entry that would uh if true would be a horrible situation that Joe Biden was involved in I'm not even going to give you any details I'll just tell you this I said can somebody show me that I keep hearing about it but I've never seen it like can you show me the words in the diary and I said I don't believe it exists so somebody showed it to me and then the following thing happened here it is look right here and said I'm looking at it I don't see what you said it's right here okay I'm reading it I see every word you're pointing to I don't see what you're saying now does that mean that it's not there I'll tell you what I saw I saw something that was ambiguous that could be interpreted one of two ways one way is president said you should drink bleach the other way is that he something ordinary happened that was worded poorly now I'm not going to defend anything that anybody did so don't interpret this as me defending Joe Biden I'm telling you that the claims that I read all the time on the internet are not supported by the thing that the claims derive from I looked at it myself now part of it is that there two claims one has details and one is just a Ambiguously worded thing that looks like it could be trouble but you don't really know for sure so the one that's got details is not supported by any documents there's some kind of forgery floating around so if you heard the one that you know says under certain conditions a thing happened there's nothing like that in the diary there's nothing that said under this condition this happened or how often or what ages were involved none of that's in the diary there's just one little thing that any normal person would be very concerned about but it's a lot like the drinking bleach thing what she said directly looks really Troublesome but it almost couldn't have been that in other words the the most the most um provocative you know interpretation of what it meant is probably the least likely but if you want to believe that stuff you kind of go to it automatically now if you add it to the hair sniffing and the weird behavior that we see in public it does create an overall picture that says maybe we should know more about this but to say that it's sort of documented and it's writing and we can all read it nope I don't buy it I do buy that there's something there that raises your eyebrow all the way past the top of your head can we agree on that I think we can agree that if you read the part that is confirmed to be real you're going to have some questions but I think there's probably more than one way to explain what that is very much like the if you didn't know that mail in votes sometimes you walk into the office and drop it in the Box it's just that your imagination getting back to my prior Point your imagination fails when you read the diary you say to yourself I'm pretty sure this could only mean one thing and it's really really bad but could it can can you imagine that if you heard the real story behind it it would sound different I'm not saying it would I'm saying can you imagine it because I think we need a little better standard for blaming innocent people of crimes especially bad ones uh it shouldn't be that you strongly suspect it I I think we need to go a little bit better than that but I'm not saying it's false I'm just saying a little better evidence would be better all right uh speaking of Biden's kids Hunter Biden's going in for his felony gun charges you know when this whole felony gun charge thing first came up um my first instinct is that this is not the thing that I want my uh legal system to be chasing because I like the Second Amendment right and I know that the law particular law said he was he lied on his application and he was an addict and so he shouldn't get a gun and I understand understand the technical part of the law but as a second amendment supporter I just had some problems with the fact that of all the things in the world you would go after him for wanting to own a gun and probably he's in the category of people who are safer with one I mean maybe the people around him are less safe I suppose but I've completely changed my mind on this because the lawfare case because I'm fairly certain that Joe Biden would behind the lawfare against Trump I think his family is in play sorry yeah yeah if if Hitler were doing Hitler things and you had a chance to take out his kids you'd do it you'd do it and uh Biden is doing Hitler things so when you're law faring the other candidate trying to put him in jail and maybe trying to kill him if uh the legal system comes for your kid um it's War it's War so I would say my empathy for Hunter has disappeared and I'm not proud of it I'm not proud of it because it takes me off principle yeah so anyway I'm not even going to comment on what I'm seeing in the comments all right uh you should know it's fake his fake historian season we're in fake poll fake news fake historian fake uh justice system territory as we approach the election but the one I always look forward to is the fake his historians so the bad guys have these historians who will say absolutely anything and they'll act like they're experts because they're historians here's what we know today history is all fake history is fake we know that because we're watching fake history being written in real time during our lifetime what are the chances that just started we've always known that the winners write the history yeah there's nothing about our history that's accurate the facts maybe some of the big facts about what war happened and you know who died and who was the king but all the narrative the stuff about why anything happened that's all fake how would you like your job to be an historian and you have to pretend the history is real that's a weird job so if there's anybody you should not trust in this world is someone who thinks history is real because they might also think the news is real today I because they live in a world in which they have to believe that that fiction is real because their job is to tell you that it is hey that fiction about history that's totally real listen to me I'm an expert on it so uh one of these uh historians Michael besos he's famous for coming out with that those grinning things that are bad for Trump yeah have you seen the face where they're a little bit too happy about the things coming out of their mouth I don't I don't even know how to describe that face but they're so happy it looks like they're having some kind of physical dopamine you know overdose while they talk about how bad Trump could be or is or was this it's like oh he's going to become stealer democracy I mean you almost think they're tubing below the camera angle because they're just way too happy about what they're saying bad about Trump and it's like creepy uncanny valley stuff it's like oh what's wrong with you anyway BOS is the top of that list and he says uh he warns that Trump's second term could lead to dictatorship and Anarchy the choice is actually pretty clear we've got a con Ed felon he a historian and he told you that Trump is a convicted felon and he left out the fact that it was complete lawfare and that nobody but Trump would have ever been convicted of it or even indicted he's a historian who proved to you while you were watching he could not interpret correctly The Narrative of our current time but his job is to tell you the narrative of all the prior times which we all know at this point is fake news now could there be a more ridiculous character I can't imagine a more useless and worthless human being than somebody who studies history like it was real knowing it isn't and then gives you pronouncements about how because of the felony which is fake uh that means that Trump will turn into a dictator and Anarchy even though we already observed him not doing that that's the weakest take of all takes meanwhile Steve Bannon is suffer hearing on the six so three days from now to decide whether or not he's going to be remed to prison now I don't know what that decision involves wasn't he found guilty so I don't I don't know exactly what they're going to be talking about is there some appeal that I don't know about anyway um let's uh let's game this out let's say Steve bennon goes to jail is that good for Democrats or bad or bad for Democrats it's bad for Steve Bon if he goes to jail but my guess is that Trump is going to raise more money and it's going to make more people vote for Trump because it's going to look to people like yet another example of lawfare and whatever you thought happened to Trump if you wondered if it might be coming for you you're going to say to yourself I don't know the details of this case I'm not sure what that Peter Navaro situation was I don't know what the Steve Bannon situation was but it all sounds like they're going after Trump supporters for details you know like technicalities now you could argue whether they are but it would feel like that to the Casual news Watcher so I would think that if Steve Bannon Goes to Jail it's going to be a boost for Trump I don't want him to go to jail but I feel like that's the way it would go at this point we're also in as I said not just the fake historian season but also in the fake news season even Faker than usual because it's election season and and the hill has a story with a headline why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy do you need to read that is that an article you want to click on and say huh let's dig into this a little bit why why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy does anybody have a question about why people are negative about the economy I'm pretty sure anybody who ever bought anything in the last year anything you know what's wrong with the economy anybody who is white and tried to get a job recently you sure know what's wrong with the economy yeah no it's not really a mystery I'm sorry the hill publication I don't really need to read your article about why Americans are feeling so negative about the economy and let me suggest that the tone of the title of the article why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy suggests that whatever this article I didn't read says is going to be a steaming pile of about how everything is great and I don't know what's wrong with you just because you can't afford why are you not seeing clearly that everything's terrific so fake news season you don't have to read that article it's also fake polling season I told you and you'll you'll be able to see it yourself that there need to be a bunch of fake polls uh to balance out the real ones if things aren't going your way because if you plan to cheat or even if you just want to keep your supporters you know incentivized and feeling like they can win you do some fake polls to to balance things out now I don't know exactly which ones will be fake and which aren't but it's a guarantee that there will be fake ones and when I say fake all they do is they have to twe all they need to do is tweak a few variables in how they ask the questions and they can get any result they want so here's one about half of Americans This is according to a poll ABC News ipsos poll would you trust a uh corporate news entity like ABC to be associated with a a poll during election season that was accurate or would it be your expectation that this is really likely to be the kind of poll that would be fate because they would they want the public to think that the felony conviction is causing people to be less inclined to vote for Trump to make it safe for other people to say oh lots of people are changing their mind because of the felony I guess I could do that too so the point of the polling is to tell you what normal people are thinking even if they're not so that you thinking you're a normal person too can maybe be a little more likely to be persuaded to be on the same side with the normal people so let's see what the normal people said about half of Americans believe uh Trump should end his campaign after the guilty verdict half of Americans think he should end his campaign because the guilty verdict does that sound like a legitimate poll before I even tell you the answer I mean you didn't even know need to know what the answer was does that sound legitimate let see let let me tell you what's wrong with it if if it wasn't jumping out at you here's what's wrong with it this is this is a poll in which they ask you to compare Trump to Trump did you get that it's a poll about the election in which you asked to compare Trump to himself so you're comparing Trump not convicted to a trump convicted is that what you're going to vote for when you go to the election or you mail in your ballot are you going to say huh who do I vote for Trump who wasn't convicted or Trump who was convicted no that's not your choice that's not your choice the choice is only and the only one that matters Trump versus Biden right that's the only one that matters and if you ask a different question so that you can get you know an answer that sounds more like what you want to hear that's an influence poll that's not about information all right at the same time the in the article on this uh it says that Trump's approval level stayed the same so could it be true that half of Americans think he should drop out of the race at the same time that his approval levels stay the same if his approval levels had changed you maybe that would be telling you something all right so here's what I think I think it it might be entirely true that half of Americans think he should end his campaign but do you know what half of Americans also think probably half of Americans believe that this should not be a contest between Biden and Trump wouldn't you agree probably half of the country if you gave them the choice they'd say you know we do love Trump versus Biden but all things considered like if we could just start with a blank slate we'd go in with a you know 40 something De.
Santis 40y old whatever whatever age he is and uh we'd you know get more years of young people and we'd wouldn't have the provocations and all the you know all the worry and everything so it seems to me this is a clearly uh a poll that's designed to drive opinions as opposed to tell you what opinions are Morin Dow who's a famous uh Trump non-lover for the New York Times uh reports that her sister who interest ly as a republican um decided that she would vote for Trump because of the felony conviction it's her own sister so one of the famous anti- trumpers is to her credit she's reporting it so you know you have to give her credit for transparency uh and but but the sister's reason is the interesting thing it wasn't just that it was unfair and people are saying yeah the system's unfair you know we're going to have to correct it by electing trump it went deeper and here's what I warned you about um she was worried that there's nobody that would protect her so Morino Dow's sister is a Republican and when she watched the top Republican get lawed she said who would protect me you know my father's dad who would protect me if I I got lawed and so she realized that she's living in an environment that's too unsafe as a Republican and uh that she had to vote for the one person who might be able to protect her and that's that's Trump now that is important it's one person so we don't know if that's a generalized feeling but it is what I predicted and what I predicted was empathy that people would see Trump as them elves for the first time when Trump is in you know the golden Towers I don't say to myself oh he's just like me you know when he's doing trumpy things like rallies and things I don't think doesn't feel just like me but when he gets accused of something that's sketchy and then the system closes in on him that is me because I live in the same system that system is surrounding me touches me every moment I walk and live and breathe same system if a guy him I I feel it personally now I'm a public figure so maybe I'm at more risk than the average person but if somebody who's just a voter an ordinary Republican is going to say that I feel threatened because Trump got lawed that's what I predicted I predicted empathy you see remember empathy is not just your empathy for the other person there's always a little bit of it which is I'm glad it's not me like that's that's connected to empathy I'm glad it's not me so I think people feel this one personally I did yeah that the the conviction of trump didn't feel like a political outcome to me it wasn't just because I'm supporting you for president it felt personal like I I felt I was being handcuffed I mean I can't explain it but did anybody have the same experience that you you just put yourself in the scene and you saw yourself unfairly convicted and lawed because we've all been I think most of us have had the experience where the system was against them unfairly it could have been anything could have been your school administrators you know your job but everybody's felt the system being against them and then we watched it happen to Trump anyway um here's the other way they use the fake polls I think this was maybe in some publication they said that Trump has a 1.8% lead based on 173 polls so he's up 1.8% based on the average of 173 polls how many of those polls are credible well during fake polling season you don't want Trump to look like he's up five because that would be too big to rig so you put a bunch of fake ones in the mix and then all the people who are trying to be reasonable but of course they're making mistake they say well the reasonable thing would be to take the average no no the reasonable thing would be to take the average if you knew that they all did a similarly credible job of doing their work but you don't you don't average the fake polls with the real ones that's what they did because I'm sure that some percentage of these are legit legitimately faked right in other words the people who did them knew what they were doing when they did them you don't average fake poles and real ones that that's nothing that that's trying to hide the ball that's what that is meanwhile Trump is on Tik Tok as you know but here's a surprise uh somebody named Tara paulmy I don't know what her role is but she seems to know some stuff um she said that the pro Trump content is 10 to 12 times more popular than Pro Biden stuff on Tik Tok and she says two Tik Tok officials told her that um that since November there's been two times more prot Trump content than Biden uh I don't know how that Maxes with matches with the 10 times more but okay and according to an internal Tik toac analysis uh Trump content beat Biden content by 10 to1 in likes and 12 to1 in views does that sound real do you believe that Tik Tock is pushing hard for Trump here's one way to explain it and I don't know if this is enough Biden is not memeable but Trump is super me memeable like the Trump memes are funny and they're interesting have you seen the one where Trump is uh is riding the back of a giant golden eagle and and the golden eagle picks up Biden from the water like a fish and and Trump is like yeah have you seen that one it is terrific it's just terrific and even if it weren't an election you'd laugh at it because it's so well done so I just don't know that the the left can meme you know we've been saying that for years I I think the quality of the meme has got to have a big impact on who views it and likes it so I would think that because Trump Trump is the most meable character in the history of characters and Biden is the least meable character in the history of politicians at least uh you would expect more Trump action but that there's so much even in a um what you would imagine would be a more left-leaning um vehicle is weird it does suggest that China maybe is not putting their finger on the scales or do you imagine that China is putting their finger on the scales of Tik Tock because they want Trump to win can you can you think of a reason why China would want Trump to win think of a reason for that I've got one why would they want Trump to win now if you're a trump supporter you're going to immediately go to oh because they can negotiate with him right I don't know maybe allow me to suggest another possibility if China is watching the news in America like everybody else you know they must have people who are you know good at English and watching the news and summarizing it for the leaders that's I'm sure that's happening in some form um they would be watching the United States grappling with the most controversial character of all time and it might look like the election of Trump would tear the country apart so it's entirely possible that from China's perspective if they believe MSNBC and they believe CNN um at least half of CNN they might think that the worst thing that could happen to America is for Trump to be reelected because it'll tear the country apart they might be right but if you go with the theory that China could make um Tik Tock put their finger on any algorithm and any content they wanted if you think that there is really control there and if you think they exercised it the only reason you would exercise it 10 to1 in favor of trump which doesn't sound real to me I mean just doesn't sound real uh unless it's thumb on the scale situation um maybe they think he's bad for America maybe don't know here's my mini theme for today Democrats have an idiot problem in leadership I'm going to give you several examples of idiots in the leadership of Democrats you know Larry Fink the CEO of Black Rock they were really big on ESG and then he said um ESG is really embarrassing us we better pull back because all the Dei thing completely exploded and embarrassed them now he's saying that you need like clean uh energy that isn't intermittent because we're going to need so much for our data centers do you know what that means pronuclear and maybe get your finger off of all the uh things that would stop energy from being produced I think I think Larry fank is who I call a smart idiot if he and I did an IQ test I think he'd beat me you know I think you probably could get into a better school than I could have at the time Etc so I'm not saying his IQ wasn't high but with this ESG stuff we observe him acting like an idiot like he maybe he didn't understand the implications of what would happen if he made ESG his his Center piece of his thing but it looks like it all blew up in his face and I think I could have told them I think I could have told him exactly where that would end up so he's a smart idiot and I think what causes that is obviously not the smart part because the smart part seems on T you know it seems fine there there's something about the the gas lighting and the brainwashing that the Democrats get that will make even the smartest person turn into an idiot but then they they have real idiots too like Maxine Waters um so she's saying that domest Trump's supporters are quote domestic terrorists and she wonders if they're preparing a civil war against us so she said that again recently now you could say to yourself well she doesn't believe those things she's just saying them for political purposes but if she is she's the worst leader ever cuz it's just a terrible thing for a leader to be saying so I'd say she's a leader and she's an idiot but unlike Larry Frink who might have a high IQ there's no indication she's anything but dumb I watched a uh conversation uh online between Megan Kelly uh and David Pacman now David Pacman is a prominent uh pundit podcaster on the left and what I learned was that when somebody on the left talks to a well-informed person on the right it always goes the same way the person on the left realizes that they haven't been getting correct news the entire time so Megan Kelly fact checked him so hard I think he left his jock strap a block back uh I mean he he got banged down hard and when I was done with it I said to myself huh David Pacman does not look nearly as smart as Megan Kelly like they don't look like they're even on the same level really and but David Pacman's a prominent voice on the left and compared to Megan Kelly came off as an idiot but he would be you know a normal person he has normal IQ but I think he too well based based on what I saw he didn't know enough about what was true so his opinions were all ridiculous because he didn't know what the facts were and when Megan Kelly sort of informed in what was true it you cause like some kind of weird cognitive dissonance in them so you have to watch that um then so that's more idiots um let's see uh David Sachs on the X profile points out that the Hillary campaign operative who cooked the books to hide payments for the steel dossier became the SEC chairman then the Biden campaign operative who orchestrated the 51 spies who lied about hunters um crimes on the laptop I guess became Secretary of State and then David saak says Dems know how to reward election interference now I'm going to I'm going to add this to my theme of Democrats having idiots for leaders in this case they have criminals as Leaders because they were actually promoted for doing things what maybe weren't technically illegal but look like they should have been um how smart is it to promote the people who get caught the reason that we're talking about these two people who got uh rewarded is because we know what they did I'm going to go with Trump I prefer people who don't get caught I think the smart people can do bad things and not get caught but the Democrats have people who aren't smart enough to get away with it because they all got caught but they got rewarded anyway so I guess I should ask who's the smart one here is it me or them they got promoted so maybe they're the Smart Ones in this case then we have the uh Biden dementia tapes still trying to get those apparently they've been locked in a skiff so that somebody can go listen to them but they can't let you listen to it that's right so then when uh let's say some Republican listens to it and comes back and says oh it was really terrible he was in bad shape all they have to do is send down Adam shiff to say no he's not he's fine I listen to the same thing so they're gonna skiff shiff us the play is to skiff shiff the skiff shift as you put it in the skiff this highly secure place where nobody can take a picture picture of it or take a copy they can only experience it inside that room so all they have to do is send their best Liars into the room and they'll come out and say no it was fine I listened to it too it's fine the the play here is so obvious it it's just so obvious that it's a ski shift play yeah it's just a standard ski shift well my questions have been answered about the Soros organization or at least why Alex Soros is going along with his dad's ideas that are terrible and destroying the world there's a clip of him at the wef um just talking about a topic and uh I'll just give you one quote to show you that what we learn from watching him talk in public he seems to be an idiot he just actually seems to be dumb and maybe really dumb based on the the clip so he's talking to the public one man Donald Trump literally came in and just took that uh took that uh took that all away um you know so um you know um you know you know um you took that um um way you took that checks and balances that you know we had these Customs the these uh um well you know the um the um the um the um the uh the customs and um um he came in like Donald Trump he um then he like um you took it all away from us now I might be exaggerating a little bit on there but you have to listen to it if you listen to him talking you will immediately understand why nobody asks him for interviews there's no way he's going to say yes to an interview because he's incompetent talking in public in fact you would be hard pressed to find anybody who can't talk in public as much as he can't talk in public he's really really bad at it so he probably just says no because he can't talk in public I guess in that case he had to try but it was a just a train wreck yeah wow and he must be under the Trump is Hitler train because you know he thinks he thinks uh not only is Trump a stealing your democracy but he's stealing your Unwritten Customs that's right Trump stole your Unwritten rules that's what he said in public wow um also Constantine kissen uh did a great thing for the world that didn't work out at all you know how I've been saying that we need to have uh like legitimate debates on topics where you've got plenty of time but you've also got a strong host a moderator who can really keep you in line and don't do it in like this political way where you let the politicians lie you know just get some experts some people will really know what they're talking about put them together put a strong moderator in the middle Boom everybody gets better informed and maybe you can work something out that's what I thought until yesterday and then I watched Constantine kissen do again I'll say you know a great thing for the public which is he tried to pull it pull off the very thing we think we wanted and the topic was Gaza and what should have Israel done and what should they do now I guess and and he had two sides and here's the model that I held in my head until that moment when two two parties disagree on something you know they they might want different things you know some wants this the other wants that usually unless the parties are you know just totally bad people you can usually find a compromise you could find some way to you know find a a negotiated settlement that everybody's not perfectly happy with but happy enough and so we imagine that that model which works all the time in business right in business you're always negotiating and usually you can work stuff out so why can't they well I found out why and I'm going to tell you a a reframe here that will explain a lot going forward it's one I hadn't noticed before it goes like this the people who were on the two sides of the Gaza debate did not disagree on what should be done per se although that's what it looked like on the surface they disagreed on reality they disagreed on reality and they weren't even close and let me tell you you can't negotiate a middle ground between two different versions of reality you can't get there from here so and thought that it could ever be negotiated while the two are living in completely different realities of how we got here and who's the bad guy and who's the good guy you can't you can't negotiate that it's completely absurd I actually used to think and and by the way this is something that one of the debate people said uh in effect the the pro Palestinian um arguers said the Palestinians have a set of um demands that are somewhat reasonable now this would be their View and if you were to um make some action toward addressing their demands you could stop the terrorism so you could stop another October 7th by simply addressing the legitimate concerns of the Palestinians and once they saw that things are moving in the right direction the reason for terrorism would go away and they say oh this is working so we'll just keep doing this peaceful negotiating because you know we got a few things we'll get some more that can't work if you're living in different realities that only works if you're in the same reality and you you want different things and then you have something you can work with because you don't want the same things the same things that are limited resources you can't make a deal if you want if everybody wants the thing that there's only one of you can't can't solve that but in a normal situation uh you want work I want money we can make a deal because we don't want the same thing and we live in the same reality the reality is you have a job I have skills you have money same reality you can always make that work but here are some of the things I heard and and let me say let me tell you who I sided with both sides are completely up right so there's a pro-israel side everything they're doing is what you have to do in October 7th and then the other side was well maybe if you were nicer to the Palestinians you wouldn't be in this situation both crazy there there are two realities that I don't recognize at all so let me let me give you an example uh the pro-israel guy argued that uh all over the world there are examples of locals who got displaced and should have the right of return like the Palestinians but his point is why are you only looking at Israel like the one place where the people who got kicked out should have the right to come back when all over the world there are people who have been kicked out of all kinds of places and then nobody's saying right to return for them so why are you saying it for Israel does that sound like a good argument to you what do all of the other places have to do with this nothing nothing it's it's not even on point uh well what do you think of Israel and the Palestinians should do well there's this totally other situation no that's just another situation to to imagine that that's like a leading point or you know you're winning your argument if you take that out that's that's insane let me tell you the only model that makes any sense whatsoever Whoever has the power to hold land holds it until somebody else has more power and then they take it away from you that's all it is to imagine that there's some narrative that we should all accept on either side or anything in the middle is really absurd you can pick your narrative if you want but it doesn't make any difference it's just power and and now let me ask you this imagine you're a Palestinian and by the way one of the participants what was her name uh forgot to write it down but uh Constantine later called her Dei Barbie apparently things didn't go well toward the end of the debate he called her Dei Barbie after the fact they were arguing on on X but that's pretty gutsy to to do that anyway one of the points she made is she said that uh there are Palestinians I don't know if this is literally true or it just sounds good who still have the key to the door where they used to live in Israel and now there's somebody else living there and they weren't compensated now what do you do about them and it's worse it wasn't even that Israel you know conquered the land and took it over somebody else gave them their house so just imagine you're a Palestinian and you wake up one day it's like hey uh the UN decided that uh that Israel owns this land uh but do they own my house well no but things are going to get really tough when they start moving in what do you mean well I I mean legally you could keep your house but things might get a little tense once you're outnumbered and next thing you know if you're a Palestinian it looks like and and I'm saying this is how it would feel I I try to put myself in the situation and say how would I feel here's what it feels like the UN gave your house to your enemies and never talk to you about it wait a minute the UN gave my house to my enemy and I wasn't I wasn't consulted now you could go back and say yes but before that you know the Jews lived there forever and then the pal you know the Arabs kicked them out and so really it's the Jews coming home and you know you could argue with forever but here's one of the things that Constantine helpfully tried to inject because both sides wanted to talk about the past you know the the past grievances now your instinct says if you're locked in the past you'll never you'll never make progress so Constantine is trying to say all right all right you know we could talk about the past but what should we do today like what are you going to do like what what should Israel have done differently and it turns out that neither side was willing to forget the past because they say you're you're not really going to understand the present without the past you know separating them does doesn't make sense but when they say the past what they mean is their Narrative of the past which is fiction both the narratives are fiction there's not a true one and a fake one you knew that right in this kind of stuff there's no real one there's always just the two narratives you know and each will leave out the inconvenient things for the other ones so I'm uh just just to clarify uh I'm pro Israel being a country and they're our Ally and I'm glad that we're supporting them Etc um but there's no truth like if you think any of it has to do with truth I think you're lost it's power the Israelis have the power to hold the country they're going to build it it'll you know they're doing lots of good things um and that's the end of the story I could have an opinion about it but it wouldn't change the fact that they have the power to hold it that's kind of the whole story but I don't believe uh in the if you give the Palestinians what they're asking for everything will be good because anybody who's Pro Palestinian likes to do the thing where they ignore the we want to kill every Jew and take all your all your land which they would say used to be their land so you can't really negotiate If part of the negotiators want you dead and that's their final offer so to imagine this is negotiatable is just kind of crazy kind of crazy so I'm going to give uh Constantine big props for holding the event I think uh pbd did a similar thing with Chris Cuomo and comic Dave Smith and that certainly produced some good entertainment and uh I'd like to see more of it but I would say that there's no point in having a debate where if you're starting from different realities and that's not going to change so so uh meanwhile there's some confusion over this so-called ceasefire peace plan road map thing that Biden says is Israel's idea but Israel says no we just tweaked a few things and then somebody else says um somebody else says uh what they say I've confused two of things here oh it's strange that they say it's an isra proposal and at the same time they say Israel needs to agree to it so I guess the Biden Administration has said oh yeah this is Israel's idea as soon as they agree to it wait if it's their idea didn't they start with agreeing with their own idea or did they have an idea they didn't agree with and they've got to be convinced to agree with their own idea or is it possible that Biden is been lying to us the entire time I'm going to go with lying to us the entire time um and I like the uh getting back to Constantine's uh debate here one of the guys on the uh pro-israel side said that all Hamas has to do is stop fighting and losing Wars and uh everything will be fine I used to believe that too I used to believe that if just the Palestinians would just stop losing War mors they could negotiate with the rest of the world and and get what they wanted I don't think there's any chance of that because there's a hardcore faction that will never stop doing it and it doesn't matter if half of them want peace if the other half doesn't there's nothing you can do with that no so there it seems that you know there's enough people who want to destroy all of Israel that there's nothing you can do it's just power they they will keep coming and Israel will keep beating them back as long as they can anyway then it looked like uh one of the things that Constantine was complaining about is that uh the woman who is the with woman he called the Dei Barbie uh after the event not during the event but um that she wouldn't answer a question but I didn't see that exactly I know what he was talking about but that she wouldn't ask answer the question of what Israel should have done or should do and it sounded like she was just talking about the past but she did kind of meander back to it and here was her answer that Israel should be more like the United States more of a Melting Pot and although people acknowledge that there already you know Islamic people living within Israel happily uh and there are no Jewish people living in Gaza happily uh but here's the thing um oh I had some good point I was going to make there that I just lost while I was talking about the other stuff all right well I don't think that uh just stopping fighting is going to fix anything because that there seems to be some permanent uh difference in reality I guess that's the bottom line all right ladies and gentlemen that's all I've got for you on today's news thanks for joining I'm going to go uh talk to the locals people privately and uh I'm going to say goodbye to X and You.
Tube and Rumble uh and I'm going to stall a little bit and drink some coffee because I understand there's a delay in the transmission so the main show is over but I'm just stalling and having a sip of coffee all right locals people here I come locals only in see update stream is it working it is not working all right so we have a technical technical failure all right we have a technical failure the uh software won't allow me to um go private with just the locals people let me try one more time locals and supporters update stream yeah it doesn't seem to work what happens if I try to cancel the oops that didn't work yeah all right so I can't go private um but let me do this I'm going to I'm going to end the rumble Studio stream and see if I can keep up the other stream would that work all right uh locals I'm going to I'll open up another stream if if it doesn't continue I'm just going to close the main Rumble studio and I'll talk to you if I can all right it's not even ending all right we're back to uh we're back to the studio won't turn off all right so um we'll need to do some manual and of the the various streams I'll probably have to um delete the X stream because you can't end them when I get to this error the xtram will just stay live forever unless I delete it so if I delete it I lose all the uh monetization from it all right I'm just going to kill this and see what I can do e e e e e
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well as soon as everybody gets here and
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the show of shows a show like you've
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before good morning everybody and
welcome to the highlight of human
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I hope everybody's
here so
good ladies and
Gentlemen let's talk about some of the
fake science before we get to the fake
news did anybody miss the Sip I'm trying
to time it so I stall just long enough
you all get in here all right well
there's a study that says the number of
college students diagnosed with PTSD has
more than
doubled do you believe
that I believe that the number diagnosed
is more than doubled do you think that
the number with PTSD has
doubled or do you think maybe it's just
because has a name here's a mental
experiment if I said to you tomorrow
there's a new condition it's a mental
condition in which you worry too much
about what other people will think about
you and it stops you from doing some
things and you'd say well that sounds
like something that has some other name
and I'd say no no has a new name has a
new name there's a new condition how
many people would be diagnosed with that
condition
tomorrow
Millions because as soon as you have a
new name for something suddenly you
think well I got a name for it
so see which side is this side's a
little light
yeah I think it has something to do with
the fact that it became a popular thing
that everybody had a name for and once
they had a name for it everybody had it
we got diagnosed but on top of that I do
think that uh the the Lesser physical
activity and you know maybe the ultr
processed foods and and uh just the
terror of living in the modern world it
might make it worse but I would think
that 60% of it is just because they gave
something a name that was a common
experience before had a name meaning
that people felt bad and traumatized for
a variety of reasons just didn't have a
name well the Wall Street Journal says
that AI might be slowing down and uh
couldn't it's possible it's it was
overrated now this Falls squarely into
the category of things I told you before
other people told you which is it seemed
to me logically that once you trained it
on everything you could find you know
all the good stuff you would run out of
things to make it smarter which is
what's happening they're running out of
new material to train it so it's as
smart as it's going to get from the
things it's already trained on so
instead they create what they call
synthetic training material which is
they have one AI I know hallucinate and
then the hallucinations became what
trains the other AI
now on paper I got to say that sounds
like a terrible
idea I don't even know how logically
that could work you know can can you
learn things from your own IM
imagination think about that as a human
if you wanted to like get good at
something could you just close your eyes
and imagine it in an artificial way
until you were good at it I don't know
that the machine can do that either I
mean they say it is but I got a question
about what is the upside potential of
that
method anyway so we got a few things
going on that could make AI overrated
number one the advances are slowing down
so each new version of it is not going
to be you know twice as good as the one
before it might be 5% better and even
decreasing after that because they don't
have anything new to train it on
and it could be that um it's a commodity
as well so so it takes a lot of money to
train the big ones but if all the big
ones get trained on the same material
I.E everything on the internet then
they're all going to end up being about
the same so maybe there's not that much
it might be a commodity it might be like
air so that there's nothing to pay for
it's like Well everybody's got a trained
AI you know you can get one for cheap so
it could be that some of the profit will
be taken out of it except for I suppose
Nvidia will do great
um and uh there's also a thought that it
will be useful for fewer things than we
thought who told you that
first me uh all the things here's the
problem when you imagine AI you
automatically and reflexively imagine
that it's smarter than people or that it
will be soon whereas I said how can it
be smarter than people if it's trained
on
people I don't think you can be smarter
than people if you're trained on people
and if you were to say something smarter
than people you know what would happen
people would reprogram you it's like I
don't recognize that as being true so
I'm I better get rid of that yeah it
really logically the way humans
operate I don't think they can build
something smarter than themselves at
least with the current technology there
there I'm allowing that there might be
some future development that allows that
to be true but if you're training it on
humans I don't know how it gets smarter
than humans I mean just my brain can't
really hold how that's a possibility it
could be smarter than an individual
human on an individual
skill and certainly things like math and
planning and chess you know the obvious
things that computers do it'll be better
than that but will it be better in let's
say interpreting what's
real which seems to be the most
important thing for us can it tell which
studies are a BS will I know who's
lying you know that's the important
stuff stuff that keeps you
alive anyway Mexico had a
vote uh the amuse account on X reminds
us that to vote in Mexico you have to
have a government issued
ID that's right to vote in Mexico you
need a government issued
ID but if you walk across the border
apparently you can vote in the United
States with nothing including
citizenship now if you get caught I
think your vote won't count but I'm not
so sure too many people are getting
caught so I don't know how that works um
just uh something to be aware of it
looks like the winner is Claudia Shin
bomb uh just the weirdest thing I never
expected that the next president of
Mexico would be a a Jewish woman I mean
she's a Mexican citizen but she has a
Jewish background there can't be a a ton
of that in
Mexico but let me tell you why what I
liked about her I saw I know nothing
about her except I've seen some pictures
and she's her Mentor was the current
president
uh but of all the things this is the
thing that stood out when I saw her
picture was work in the crowds she's she
she's wearing a
ponytail and and she's pulling it off
you know not not everyone can make a
ponytail work but she totally pulls off
a ponytail while she's while she's uh
you know doing her uh
campaigning I what do a lot of American
politicians do they ever wear ponytails
in any official capacity I feel like
I've seen a AOC in a ponytail when she
was casual maybe I don't I lik it she
pull she pulls off a
ponytail is it just me I'm always I'm
always impressed by anybody can simply
pull off the
look right because the reason that you
know big hair is popular is that we like
it better you you have to have just the
right look to pull off a ponytail and
she
does that's the least important thing in
politics but there it
is um here's story which you probably
thought was real news that maybe is fake
news so today I will disappoint my
Audience by telling you things you
thought were true that maybe are not so
true you may have seen a story as I did
this morning that there's a claim and
I'm going to tell you that you what's
wrong with the claim in a minute but the
claim is that there are 74,000 mail-in
ballots received with no record they
were mailed out and that would be more
than the margin of victory in Arizona
for in the 2020 election so that sounds
pretty does that sound pretty
convincing so this is a
fact right it's a fact and then I'm
going to tell you why you're
misinterpreting it but it's a fact that
you're supposed to know how many were
mailed out and then you're supposed to
keep record of how many were received
and don't you think it would be a
problem if your record of how many you
mailed out was way different than the
ones you received now if you received
way fewer than you mailed out totally
normal not everybody's mails in but if
you received substantially more coming
in than you ever sent out that would be
a huge signal for fraud would you
agree so would do you agree that there's
no other explanation for that okay are
you on the same page with
me that there can't be any official
explanation that would ever satisfy you
if that's true and it's true it's
confirmed to be
true so how do how do you interpret that
think in your mind what could be any
other explanation for why you get more
in than you ever mailed out in the first
place so therefore there was pretty
confirmed um bad behavior wouldn't you
say all right so here's what you're
going to learn
today that what you think is you
analyzing a situation is not what just
happened that's not what happened what
happened is you analyzed your own
ability to imagine and it failed you you
couldn't imagine a situation in which
that could be
okay despite the fact that everything
about it looks like it's not okay all
right now I'm going to tell you what the
official explanation was now I'm not
going to say that the official
explanation is correct I'm just going to
say that as soon as I heard it it
sounded
correct so it complete will all right
you ready there are two ways to do
mail-in
voting one way is they mail it to you
you get it in the mail you fill it out
and you mail it back if that was the
only way it happened then it would be
clear sign of fraud if more came back
than were ever mailed in but there are
two ways one is is it doesn't get mailed
to you you walk into a voting Center you
pick it up from a shelf or something you
fill it out and you drop it in a box
that would be called a mailin but nobody
mailed it to you you went to the place
where they were sitting in a big pile
took one off the pile filled it out and
dropped it in the Box sitting next to
it did you know
that now that's the claim from the
official people who were debunking it
now my point is not that the election
was or was not fair I would say it's
hard you know from my perspective to
know one way or the other
but the point is if you can't imagine
what the alternative was the problem is
in your head your your imagination is
not up to the
task here's another case like that I
believe that the um you're all familiar
with the fine people hoax about
Charlottesville and how something was
taken out of context and Democrats came
to believe something that never happened
and you know the drinking bleach hes
Democrats came to believe that Trump
said maybe you should drink bleach never
happened it looks like there might be a
version of that on the Republican side
and it's called Ashley Biden's
diary so I tried talking about this uh
yesterday with my audience and people
just flipped out and I oh I'm going to
stay away from this topic and then I saw
thought to myself no the flipping out is
the story so I'm going to make you flip
out I I challenged my audience because I
never talked about the story and I don't
want don't want to get into the details
but I'll just say that there's a thing
called Ashley Biden's diary which uh
some people say is fake and some people
say is real I think it's confirmed to be
real as far as I know but then there's a
claim that there's a specific entry in
there or entry
that would uh if true would be a
horrible situation that Joe Biden was
involved in I'm not even going to give
you any details I'll just tell you this
I said can somebody show me that I keep
hearing about it but I've never seen it
like can you show me the words in the
diary and I said I don't believe it
exists so somebody showed it to me and
then the following thing happened here
it is look right here and said I'm
looking at it I don't see what you said
it's right here okay I'm reading it I
see every word you're pointing to I
don't see what you're saying
now does that mean that it's not there
I'll tell you what I saw I saw something
that was ambiguous that could be
interpreted one of two ways one way is
president said you should drink
bleach the other way is that he
something ordinary happened that was
worded
poorly now I'm not going to defend
anything that anybody did so don't
interpret this as me defending Joe Biden
I'm telling you that the claims that I
read all the time on the internet are
not supported by the thing that the
claims derive from I looked at it myself
now part of it is that there two claims
one has
details and one is just a Ambiguously
worded thing that looks like it could be
trouble but you don't really know for
sure so the one that's got details is
not supported by any documents there's
some kind of forgery floating around so
if you heard the one that you know says
under certain conditions a thing
happened there's nothing like that in
the diary there's nothing that said
under this condition this happened or
how often or what ages were involved
none of that's in the diary there's just
one little thing
that any normal person would be very
concerned
about but it's a lot like the drinking
bleach thing what she said directly
looks really Troublesome but it almost
couldn't have been
that in other words the the most the
most um
provocative you know interpretation of
what it meant is probably the least
likely but if you want to believe that
stuff you kind of go to it automatically
now if you add it to the hair sniffing
and the weird behavior that we see in
public it does create an overall picture
that says maybe we should know more
about this but to say that it's sort of
documented and it's writing and we can
all read it nope I don't buy it I do buy
that there's something there that raises
your eyebrow all the way past the top of
your head can we agree on that I think
we can agree that if you read the part
that is confirmed to be real
you're going to have some questions but
I think there's probably more than one
way to explain what that is very much
like the if you didn't know that mail in
votes sometimes you walk into the office
and drop it in the Box it's just that
your
imagination getting back to my prior
Point your imagination fails when you
read the diary you say to yourself I'm
pretty sure this could only mean one
thing and it's really really
bad but could it can can you imagine
that if you heard the real story behind
it it would sound different I'm not
saying it would I'm saying can you
imagine it because I think we need a
little better standard for blaming
innocent people of crimes especially bad
ones uh it shouldn't be that you
strongly suspect it I I think we need to
go a little bit better than that but I'm
not saying it's false I'm just saying a
little better evidence would be better
all right
uh speaking of Biden's kids Hunter
Biden's going in for his felony gun
charges you know when this whole felony
gun charge thing first came up um my
first instinct is that this is not the
thing that I want my uh legal system to
be chasing because I like the Second
Amendment right and I know that the law
particular law said he was he lied on
his application and he was an addict and
so he shouldn't get a gun and I
understand understand the technical part
of the law but as a second amendment
supporter I just had some problems with
the fact that of all the things in the
world you would go after him for wanting
to own a gun and probably he's in the
category of people who are safer with
one I mean maybe the people around him
are less safe I suppose
but I've completely changed my mind on
this because the lawfare case because
I'm fairly certain that Joe Biden would
behind the lawfare against Trump I think
his family is in play sorry yeah yeah if
if Hitler were doing Hitler things and
you had a chance to take out his kids
you'd do
it you'd do it and uh Biden is doing
Hitler things so when you're law faring
the other candidate trying to put him in
jail and maybe trying to kill him if uh
the legal system comes for your kid um
it's War it's War so I would say my
empathy for Hunter has
disappeared and I'm not proud of it I'm
not proud of it because it takes me off
principle
yeah so anyway I'm not even going to
comment on what I'm seeing in the
comments all right uh you should know
it's fake his fake historian
season we're in fake poll fake news fake
historian fake uh justice system
territory as we approach the election
but the one I always look forward to is
the fake his
historians so the bad guys have these
historians who will say absolutely
anything and they'll act like they're
experts because they're
historians here's what we know
today history is all
fake history is fake we know that
because we're watching fake history
being written in real time during our
lifetime what are the chances that just
started we've always known that the
winners write the history yeah there's
nothing about our history that's
accurate the facts maybe some of the big
facts about what war happened and you
know who died and who was the king but
all the narrative the stuff about why
anything happened that's all fake how
would you like your job to be an
historian and you have to pretend the
history is
real that's a weird job so if there's
anybody you should not trust in this
world is someone who thinks history is
real because they might also think the
news is real today I because they live
in a world in which they have to believe
that that fiction is real because their
job is to tell you that it is hey that
fiction about history that's totally
real listen to me I'm an expert on
it so uh one of these uh historians
Michael besos he's famous for coming out
with that
those grinning things that are bad for
Trump yeah have you seen the face where
they're a little bit too happy about the
things coming out of their
mouth I don't I don't even know how to
describe that face but they're so happy
it looks like they're having some kind
of physical
dopamine you know
overdose while they talk about how bad
Trump could be or is or was this it's
like oh he's going to become stealer
democracy I mean you almost think
they're tubing below the camera angle
because they're just way too happy about
what they're saying bad about Trump and
it's like
creepy uncanny valley stuff it's like oh
what's wrong with you anyway BOS is the
top of that list and he says uh he warns
that Trump's second term could lead to
dictatorship and Anarchy the choice is
actually pretty clear we've got a con Ed
felon he a
historian and he told you that Trump is
a convicted
felon and he left out the fact that it
was complete lawfare and that
nobody but Trump would have ever been
convicted of it or even
indicted he's a
historian who proved to you while you
were watching he could not interpret
correctly The Narrative of our current
time but his job is to tell you the
narrative of all the prior
times which we all know at this point is
fake news now could there be a more
ridiculous character I can't imagine a
more useless and worthless human being
than somebody who studies history like
it was real knowing it isn't and then
gives you pronouncements about how
because of the felony which is fake
uh that means that Trump will turn into
a dictator and Anarchy even though we
already observed him not doing
that that's the weakest take of all
takes meanwhile Steve Bannon is suffer
hearing on the six so three days from
now to decide whether or not he's going
to be remed to prison now I don't know
what that decision involves wasn't he
found guilty
so I don't I don't know exactly what
they're going to be talking about is
there some appeal that I don't know
about anyway
um let's uh let's game this out let's
say Steve bennon goes to jail is that
good for Democrats or bad or bad for
Democrats it's bad for Steve Bon if he
goes to
jail
but my guess is that Trump is going to
raise more
money and it's going to make more people
vote for Trump because it's going to
look to people like yet another example
of lawfare and whatever you thought
happened to Trump if you wondered if it
might be coming for
you you're going to say to yourself I
don't know the details of this case I'm
not sure what that Peter Navaro
situation was I don't know what the
Steve Bannon situation was but it all
sounds like they're going after Trump
supporters for details
you know like technicalities now you
could argue whether they are but it
would feel like that to the Casual news
Watcher so I would think that if Steve
Bannon Goes to Jail it's going to be a
boost for Trump I don't want him to go
to jail but I feel like that's the way
it would go at this
point we're also in as I said not just
the fake historian season but also in
the fake news season even Faker than
usual because it's election season and
and the hill has a story with a headline
why are Americans feeling so negative
about the
economy do you need to read that is that
an article you want to click on and say
huh let's dig into this a little bit why
why are Americans feeling so negative
about the
economy does anybody have a question
about why people are negative about the
economy I'm pretty sure anybody who ever
bought
anything in the last year anything
you know what's wrong with the
economy anybody who is white and tried
to get a job recently you sure know
what's wrong with the economy yeah no
it's not really a mystery I'm sorry the
hill publication I don't really need to
read your article about why Americans
are feeling so negative about the
economy and let me suggest that the tone
of the title of the article why are
Americans feeling so negative about the
economy suggests that whatever this
article I didn't read says is going to
be a steaming pile of about how
everything is great and I don't know
what's wrong with you just because you
can't afford why are you not seeing
clearly that everything's
terrific so fake news season you don't
have to read that
article it's also fake polling season I
told you and you'll you'll be able to
see it yourself that there need to be a
bunch of fake polls uh to balance out
the real ones if things aren't going
your way because if you plan to cheat or
even if you just want to keep your
supporters you know incentivized and
feeling like they can win you do some
fake polls to to balance things out now
I don't know exactly which ones will be
fake and which aren't but it's a
guarantee that there will be fake ones
and when I say fake all they do is they
have to twe all they need to do is tweak
a few variables in how they ask the
questions and they can get any result
they want so here's one about half of
Americans This is according to a poll
ABC News ipsos
poll would you trust a uh corporate news
entity like
ABC to be associated with a a poll
during election season that was
accurate or would it be your expectation
that this is really likely to be the
kind of poll that would be
fate because they would they want the
public to think that the felony
conviction is causing people to be less
inclined to vote for Trump to make it
safe for other people to say oh lots of
people are changing their mind because
of the felony I guess I could do that
too so the point of the polling is to
tell you what normal people are thinking
even if they're not so that you thinking
you're a normal person too can maybe be
a little more likely to be persuaded
to be on the same side with the normal
people so let's see what the normal
people
said about half of Americans believe uh
Trump should end his campaign after the
guilty
verdict half of Americans think he
should end his campaign because the
guilty verdict does that sound like a
legitimate poll before I even tell you
the answer I mean you didn't even know
need to know what the answer was does
that sound legitimate
let see let let me tell you what's wrong
with it if if it wasn't jumping out at
you here's what's wrong with it this is
this is a poll in which they ask you to
compare Trump to
Trump did you get that it's a poll about
the election in which you asked to
compare Trump to
himself so you're comparing Trump not
convicted to a trump
convicted is that what you're going to
vote for when you go to the election
or you mail in your ballot are you going
to say huh who do I vote for Trump who
wasn't convicted or Trump who was
convicted no that's not your
choice that's not your choice the choice
is only and the only one that
matters Trump versus
Biden right that's the only one that
matters and if you ask a different
question so that you can get you know an
answer that sounds more like what you
want to hear that's an influence poll
that's not about information all
right at the same time the in the
article on this uh it says that Trump's
approval level stayed the same so could
it be true that half of Americans think
he should drop out of the race at the
same time that his approval levels stay
the
same if his approval levels had changed
you maybe that would be telling you
something all right so here's what I
think I think it it might be entirely
true that half of Americans think he
should end his campaign but do you know
what half of Americans also think
probably half of Americans believe that
this should not be a contest between
Biden and
Trump wouldn't you agree probably half
of the country if you gave them the
choice they'd say you know we do love
Trump versus Biden but all things
considered like if we could just start
with a blank slate we'd go in with a you
know 40 something DeSantis 40y old
whatever whatever age he is and uh we'd
you know get more years of young people
and we'd wouldn't have the provocations
and all the you know all the worry and
everything so it seems to me this is a
clearly uh a poll that's designed to
drive opinions as opposed to tell you
what opinions
are Morin Dow who's a famous uh Trump
non-lover for the New York Times uh
reports that her sister who interest ly
as a
republican um decided that she would
vote for
Trump because of the felony
conviction it's her own
sister so one of the famous anti-
trumpers is to her credit she's
reporting it so you know you have to
give her credit for
transparency uh and but but the sister's
reason is the interesting thing it
wasn't just that it was unfair and
people are saying yeah the system's
unfair you know we're going to have to
correct it by electing trump it went
deeper and here's what I warned you
about um she was worried that there's
nobody that would protect
her so Morino Dow's sister is a
Republican and when she watched the top
Republican get lawed she said who would
protect me you know my father's dad who
would protect me if I I got
lawed and so she realized that she's
living in an environment that's too
unsafe as a
Republican and uh that she had to vote
for the one person who might be able to
protect her and that's that's
Trump now that is important it's one
person so we don't know if that's a
generalized feeling but it is what I
predicted and what I predicted was
empathy that people would see Trump as
them elves for the first time when Trump
is in you know the golden Towers I don't
say to myself oh he's just like me you
know when he's doing trumpy things like
rallies and things I don't think doesn't
feel just like me but when he gets
accused of something that's sketchy and
then the system closes in on him that is
me because I live in the same system
that system is surrounding me touches me
every moment I walk and live and breathe
same
system if a guy him I I feel it
personally now I'm a public figure so
maybe I'm at more risk than the average
person but if somebody who's just a
voter an ordinary Republican is going to
say that I feel threatened because Trump
got
lawed that's what I predicted I
predicted empathy you see remember
empathy is not just your empathy for the
other person there's always a little bit
of it which is I'm glad it's not me like
that's that's connected to empathy I'm
glad it's not me so I think people feel
this one personally I did yeah that the
the conviction of trump didn't feel like
a political outcome to me it wasn't just
because I'm supporting you for president
it felt personal like I I felt I was
being handcuffed I mean I can't explain
it but did anybody have the same
experience that you you just put
yourself in the scene
and you saw yourself unfairly convicted
and lawed because we've all been I think
most of us have had the experience where
the system was against them unfairly it
could have been anything could have been
your school administrators you know your
job but everybody's felt the system
being against them and then we watched
it happen to
Trump anyway
um here's the other way they use the
fake polls I think this was maybe in
some publication they said that Trump
has a 1.8% lead based on 173
polls so he's up 1.8% based on the
average of 173
polls how many of those polls are
credible well during fake polling season
you don't want Trump to look like he's
up five because that would be too big to
rig so you put a bunch of fake ones in
the mix and then all the people who are
trying to be reasonable but of course
they're making mistake they say well the
reasonable thing would be to take the
average
no no the reasonable thing would be to
take the average if you knew that they
all did a similarly credible job of
doing their work but you don't you don't
average the fake polls with the real
ones that's what they did because I'm
sure that some percentage of these are
legit legitimately
faked right in other words the people
who did them knew what they were doing
when they did them you don't average
fake poles and real ones that that's
nothing that that's trying to hide the
ball that's what that
is meanwhile Trump is on Tik Tok as you
know but here's a surprise uh somebody
named Tara paulmy I don't know what her
role is but she seems to know some stuff
um she said that the pro Trump content
is 10 to 12 times more popular than Pro
Biden stuff on Tik Tok and she says two
Tik Tok officials told her that um that
since November there's been two times
more prot Trump content than
Biden uh I don't know how that Maxes
with matches with the 10 times more but
okay and according to an internal Tik
toac
analysis uh Trump content beat Biden
content by 10 to1 in likes and 12 to1 in
views does that sound real do you
believe that Tik Tock is pushing hard
for
Trump here's one way to explain it and I
don't know if this is enough Biden is
not
memeable but Trump is super me memeable
like the Trump memes are funny and
they're interesting have you seen the
one where Trump is uh is riding the back
of a giant golden eagle and and the
golden eagle picks up Biden from the
water like a fish and and Trump is like
yeah have you seen that one it is
terrific it's just terrific and even if
it weren't an election you'd laugh at it
because it's so well done so I just
don't know that the the left can meme
you know we've been saying that for
years I I think the quality of the meme
has got to have a big impact on who
views it and likes it so I would think
that because Trump Trump is the most
meable character in the history of
characters and Biden is the least meable
character in the history of politicians
at least uh you would expect more Trump
action but that there's so much even in
a um what you would imagine would be a
more left-leaning um vehicle is weird it
does suggest that
China maybe is not putting their finger
on the scales or do you imagine that
China is putting their finger on the
scales of Tik Tock because they want
Trump to
win can you can you think of a reason
why China would want Trump to
win think of a reason for that I've got
one why would they want Trump to win now
if you're a trump supporter you're going
to immediately go to oh because they can
negotiate with
him right I don't
know
maybe allow me to
suggest another
possibility if China is watching the
news in America like everybody else you
know they must have people who are you
know good at English and watching the
news and summarizing it for the leaders
that's I'm sure that's happening in some
form um they would be watching the
United States grappling with the most
controversial character of all time and
it might look like the election of Trump
would tear the country apart so it's
entirely possible that from China's
perspective if they believe
MSNBC and they believe CNN um at least
half of CNN they might think that the
worst thing that could happen to America
is for Trump to be reelected because
it'll tear the country apart they might
be
right but if you go with the theory that
China could make um Tik Tock put their
finger on any algorithm and any content
they wanted if you think that there is
really control there and if you think
they exercised it the only reason you
would exercise it 10 to1 in favor of
trump which doesn't sound real to me I
mean just doesn't sound real uh unless
it's thumb on the scale situation
um maybe they think he's bad for America
maybe don't
know here's my mini theme for today
Democrats have an idiot problem in
leadership I'm going to give you several
examples of idiots in the leadership of
Democrats you know Larry Fink the CEO of
Black Rock they were really big on
ESG and then he said um ESG is really
embarrassing us we better pull back
because all the Dei thing completely
exploded and embarrassed them now he's
saying that you need like
clean uh energy that isn't intermittent
because we're going to need so much for
our data centers do you know what that
means
pronuclear and maybe get your finger off
of all the uh things that would stop
energy from being produced I think I
think Larry fank is who I call a smart
idiot if he and I did an IQ test I think
he'd beat
me you know I think you probably could
get into a better school than I could
have at the time Etc so I'm not saying
his IQ wasn't high but with this ESG
stuff we observe him acting like an
idiot
like he maybe he didn't understand the
implications of what would happen if he
made ESG his his Center piece of his
thing but it looks like it all blew up
in his face and I think I could have
told them I think I could have told him
exactly where that would end up so he's
a smart idiot and I think what causes
that is obviously not the smart part
because the smart part seems on T you
know it seems fine there there's
something about the the gas lighting and
the brainwashing that the Democrats get
that will make even the smartest person
turn into an
idiot but then they they have real
idiots too like Maxine Waters um so
she's saying that domest Trump's
supporters are quote domestic terrorists
and she wonders if they're preparing a
civil war against us so she said that
again recently
now you could say to yourself well she
doesn't believe those things she's just
saying them for political purposes but
if she is she's the worst leader
ever cuz it's just a terrible thing for
a leader to be saying so I'd say she's a
leader and she's an idiot but unlike
Larry Frink who might have a high IQ
there's no indication she's anything but
dumb I watched a uh conversation uh
online between Megan Kelly uh and David
Pacman now David Pacman is a prominent
uh pundit podcaster on the left and what
I learned was that when somebody on the
left talks to a well-informed person on
the right it always goes the same way
the person on the left realizes that
they haven't been getting correct news
the entire time so Megan Kelly fact
checked him so hard I think he left his
jock strap a block back uh I mean he he
got banged down hard and when I was done
with it I said to myself huh
David Pacman does not look nearly as
smart as Megan Kelly like they don't
look like they're even on the same level
really and but David Pacman's a
prominent voice on the left
and compared to Megan Kelly came off as
an idiot but he would be you know a
normal person he has normal IQ but I
think he too well based based on what I
saw he didn't know enough about what was
true
so his opinions were all ridiculous
because he didn't know what the facts
were and when Megan Kelly sort of
informed in what was true it you cause
like some kind of weird cognitive
dissonance in them so you have to watch
that um then so that's more
idiots
um let's see uh David Sachs on the X
profile points out that the Hillary
campaign operative
who cooked the books to hide payments
for the steel dossier became the SEC
chairman then the Biden campaign
operative who orchestrated the 51 spies
who lied about hunters um crimes on the
laptop I guess became Secretary of
State and then David saak says Dems know
how to reward election
interference now I'm going to I'm going
to add this to my theme of Democrats
having idiots for leaders in this case
they have criminals as Leaders because
they were actually promoted for doing
things what maybe weren't technically
illegal but look like they should have
been um how smart is it to promote the
people who get caught the reason that
we're talking about these two people who
got uh rewarded is because we know what
they
did I'm going to go with Trump I prefer
people who don't get
caught I think the smart people can do
bad things and not get
caught but the Democrats have people who
aren't smart enough to get away with it
because they all got caught but they got
rewarded anyway so I guess I should ask
who's the smart one here is it me or
them they got promoted so maybe they're
the Smart Ones in this
case then we have the uh Biden dementia
tapes still trying to get those
apparently they've been locked in a
skiff so that somebody can go listen to
them but they can't let you listen to it
that's right so then when uh let's say
some Republican listens to it and comes
back and says oh it was really terrible
he was in bad shape all they have to do
is send down Adam shiff to say no he's
not he's fine I listen to the same thing
so they're gonna skiff shiff us the play
is to skiff shiff the skiff shift as you
put it in the skiff this highly secure
place where nobody can take a picture
picture of it or take a copy they can
only experience it inside that room so
all they have to do is send their best
Liars into the room and they'll come out
and say no it was fine I listened to it
too it's fine the the play here is so
obvious it it's just so obvious that
it's a ski shift play yeah it's just a
standard ski
shift well my questions have been
answered about the Soros organization or
at least why Alex Soros is going along
with his dad's ideas that are terrible
and destroying the world there's a clip
of him at the wef um just talking about
a topic and uh I'll just give you one
quote to show you that what we learn
from watching him talk in public he
seems to be an
idiot he just actually seems to be
dumb and maybe really dumb based on the
the clip so he's talking to the public
one man Donald Trump literally came in
and just took that uh took that uh took
that all away um you know so um you know
um you know you know um you took that um
um way you took that checks and balances
that you know we had these Customs the
these uh um well you know the um the um
the um the um the uh the customs and um
um he came in like Donald Trump he um
then he like um you took it all away
from
us now I might be exaggerating a little
bit on there but you have to listen to
it if you listen to him talking you will
immediately understand why nobody asks
him for interviews there's no way he's
going to say yes to an interview because
he's incompetent talking in public in
fact you would be hard pressed to find
anybody who can't talk in public as much
as he can't talk in public he's really
really bad at it so he probably just
says
no because he can't talk in public I
guess in that case he had to try but it
was a just a train
wreck
yeah wow
and he must be under the Trump is Hitler
train because you know he thinks he
thinks uh not only is Trump a stealing
your democracy but he's stealing your
Unwritten
Customs that's right Trump stole your
Unwritten
rules that's what he said in
public wow um also Constantine kissen uh
did a great thing for the world that
didn't work out at all you know how I've
been saying that we need to have uh like
legitimate debates on topics where
you've got plenty of time but you've
also got a strong host a moderator who
can really keep you in line and don't do
it in like this political way where you
let the politicians lie you know just
get some experts some people will really
know what they're talking about put them
together put a strong moderator in the
middle Boom everybody gets better
informed and maybe you can work
something
out that's what I thought until
yesterday and then I watched Constantine
kissen do again I'll say you know a
great thing for the public which is he
tried to pull it pull off the very thing
we think we
wanted and the topic was Gaza and what
should have Israel done and what should
they do now I guess and and he had two
sides and here's the model that I held
in my head until that
moment when two two parties disagree on
something you know they they might want
different things you know some wants
this the other wants that usually unless
the parties are you know just totally
bad people you can usually find a
compromise you could find some way to
you know find a a negotiated settlement
that everybody's not perfectly happy
with but happy enough and so we imagine
that that model which works all the time
in business right in business you're
always negotiating and usually you can
work stuff out so why can't they well I
found out
why and I'm going to tell you a a
reframe here that will explain a lot
going forward it's one I hadn't noticed
before it goes like this the people who
were on the two sides of the Gaza debate
did not disagree
on what should be done per se although
that's what it looked like on the
surface they disagreed on
reality they disagreed on
reality and they weren't even close and
let me tell you you can't negotiate a
middle ground between two different
versions of reality
you can't get there from here so and
thought that it could ever be negotiated
while the two are living in completely
different realities of how we got here
and who's the bad guy and who's the good
guy you can't you can't negotiate
that it's completely absurd I actually
used to think and and by the way this is
something that one of the debate people
said uh in effect the the pro
Palestinian um arguers
said the Palestinians have a set of um
demands that are somewhat reasonable now
this would be their View and if you were
to um make some action toward addressing
their demands you could stop the
terrorism so you could stop another
October 7th by
simply addressing the legitimate
concerns of the
Palestinians and once they saw that
things are moving in the right direction
the reason for terrorism would go away
and they say oh this is working so we'll
just keep doing this peaceful
negotiating because you know we got a
few things we'll get some
more that can't work if you're living in
different
realities that only works if you're in
the same
reality and you you want different
things and then you have something you
can work with because you don't want the
same things the same things that are
limited resources you can't make a deal
if you want if everybody wants the thing
that there's only one of you can't can't
solve that but in a normal situation uh
you want work I want money we can make a
deal because we don't want the same
thing and we live in the same reality
the reality is you have a job I have
skills you have money same reality you
can always make that work
but here are some of the things I heard
and and let me say let me tell you who I
sided with both sides are completely
up
right so there's a pro-israel side
everything they're doing is what you
have to do in October 7th and then the
other side was well maybe if you were
nicer to the Palestinians you wouldn't
be in this situation both crazy there
there are two realities that I don't
recognize at all
so let me let me give you an
example uh the pro-israel guy argued
that uh all over the world there are
examples of locals who got displaced
and should have the right of
return like the Palestinians but his
point is why are you only looking at
Israel like the one place where the
people who got kicked out should have
the right to come back when all over the
world there are people who have been
kicked out of all kinds of places and
then nobody's saying right to return for
them so why are you saying it for Israel
does that sound like a good argument to
you what do all of the other places have
to do with this
nothing
nothing it's it's not even on
point uh well what do you think of
Israel and the Palestinians should do
well there's this totally other
situation no that's just another
situation to to imagine that that's like
a leading point or you know you're
winning your argument if you take that
out that's that's insane let me tell you
the only model that makes any sense
whatsoever Whoever has the power to hold
land
holds it until somebody else has more
power and then they take it away from
you that's all it is to imagine that
there's some narrative that we should
all accept on either side or anything in
the middle is really absurd you can pick
your narrative if you want but it
doesn't make any difference it's just
power and and now let me ask you this
imagine you're a
Palestinian and by the way one of the
participants what was her name
uh forgot to write it
down but uh Constantine later called her
Dei
Barbie apparently things didn't go well
toward the end of the
debate he called her Dei
Barbie after the fact they were arguing
on on X
but that's pretty gutsy to to do that
anyway one of the points she made is she
said that uh there are Palestinians I
don't know if this is literally true or
it just sounds good who still have the
key to the door where they used to live
in
Israel and now there's somebody else
living there and they weren't
compensated now what do you do about
them and it's worse it wasn't even that
Israel you know conquered the land and
took it over somebody else gave them
their house so just imagine you're a
Palestinian and you wake up one day it's
like hey uh the UN decided that
uh that Israel owns this
land
uh but do they own my
house well
no but things are going to get really
tough when they start moving in what do
you mean well I I mean legally you could
keep your house but things might get a
little tense once you're
outnumbered and next thing you know if
you're a Palestinian it looks like and
and I'm saying this is how it would feel
I I try to put myself in the situation
and say how would I feel here's what it
feels like the UN gave your house to
your
enemies and never talk to you about it
wait a minute the UN gave my house
to my
enemy and I wasn't I wasn't
consulted now you could go back and say
yes but before that you know the Jews
lived there forever and then the pal you
know the Arabs kicked them out and so
really it's the Jews coming home and you
know you could argue with forever but
here's one of the things that
Constantine helpfully tried to inject
because both sides wanted to talk about
the past
you know the the past grievances now
your instinct says if you're locked in
the past you'll never you'll never make
progress so Constantine is trying to say
all right all right you know we could
talk about the past but what should we
do today like what are you going to do
like what what should Israel have done
differently and it turns out that
neither side was willing to forget the
past because they say you're you're not
really going to understand the present
without the past you know separating
them does doesn't make sense but when
they say the past what they mean is
their Narrative of the past which is
fiction both the narratives are fiction
there's not a true one and a fake one
you knew that
right in this kind of stuff there's no
real one there's always just the two
narratives you know and each will leave
out the inconvenient things for the
other
ones so I'm uh just just to clarify uh
I'm pro Israel being a country and
they're our Ally and I'm glad that we're
supporting them
Etc um but there's no
truth like if you think any of it has to
do with truth I think you're lost it's
power the Israelis have the power to
hold the country they're going to build
it it'll you know they're doing lots of
good
things um and that's the end of the
story I could have an opinion about it
but it wouldn't change the fact that
they have the power to hold it that's
kind of the whole story
but I don't believe uh in the if you
give the Palestinians what they're
asking for everything will be good
because anybody who's Pro Palestinian
likes to do the thing where they ignore
the we want to kill every Jew and take
all your all your land which they would
say used to be their land so you can't
really negotiate If part of the
negotiators want you dead and that's
their final offer so to imagine this is
negotiatable is just kind of crazy kind
of
crazy so I'm going to give uh
Constantine big props for holding the
event I think uh pbd did a similar thing
with Chris Cuomo and comic Dave Smith
and that certainly produced some good
entertainment and uh I'd like to see
more of
it but I would say that there's no point
in having a debate where if you're
starting from different realities and
that's not going to change so
so uh meanwhile there's some confusion
over this so-called ceasefire peace plan
road map thing that Biden says is
Israel's idea but Israel says no we just
tweaked a few things and then somebody
else says
um somebody else
says uh what they say I've confused two
of things
here oh it's strange that they say it's
an isra proposal and at the same time
they say Israel needs to agree to
it so I guess the Biden Administration
has said oh yeah this is Israel's idea
as soon as they agree to
it wait if it's their
idea didn't they start with agreeing
with their own idea or did they have an
idea they didn't agree with and they've
got to be convinced to agree with their
own
idea or is it possible that Biden is
been lying to us the entire time I'm
going to go with lying to us the entire
time um and I like the uh getting back
to Constantine's uh debate here one of
the guys on the uh pro-israel side said
that all Hamas has to do is stop
fighting and losing Wars and uh
everything will be fine I used to
believe that too I used to believe that
if just the Palestinians would just stop
losing War
mors they could negotiate with the rest
of the world and and get what they
wanted I don't think there's any chance
of
that because there's a hardcore faction
that will never stop doing it and it
doesn't matter if half of them want
peace if the other half doesn't there's
nothing you can do with that no so there
it seems that you know there's enough
people who want to destroy all of Israel
that there's nothing you can do it's
just power they they will keep coming
and Israel will keep beating them back
as long as they
can anyway then it looked like uh one of
the things that Constantine was
complaining about is that uh the woman
who is the with woman he called the Dei
Barbie uh after the event not during the
event but um that she wouldn't answer a
question but I didn't see that exactly I
know what he was talking about but that
she wouldn't ask answer the question of
what Israel should have done or should
do and it sounded like she was just
talking about the past but she did kind
of meander back to it and here was her
answer that Israel should be more like
the United States more of a Melting Pot
and although people acknowledge that
there already you know Islamic people
living within Israel happily uh and
there are no Jewish people living in
Gaza happily uh but
here's the
thing
um oh I had some good point I was going
to make there that I just lost while I
was talking about the other stuff all
right well I don't think that uh just
stopping fighting is going to fix
anything because that there seems to be
some permanent uh difference in reality
I guess that's the bottom line all right
ladies and gentlemen that's all I've got
for you on today's news thanks for
joining I'm going to go uh talk to the
locals people
privately and uh I'm going to say
goodbye to X and YouTube and Rumble uh
and I'm going to stall a little bit and
drink some coffee because I understand
there's a delay in the
transmission
[Music]
so the main show is over but I'm just
stalling and having a sip of coffee
all right locals people here I
come locals only
in see update stream is it
working it is not
working all right so we have a
technical technical
failure all right we have a technical
failure the uh software won't allow me
to um go private with just the locals
people let me try one more
time locals and supporters update stream
yeah it doesn't seem to
work what happens if I try to cancel the
oops that didn't
work yeah all right so I can't go
private um but let me do this I'm going
to I'm going to end the rumble Studio
stream
and see if I can keep up the other
stream would that
work all right uh locals I'm going to
I'll open up another stream if if it
doesn't continue I'm just going to close
the main Rumble studio and I'll talk to
you if I
can all right it's not even ending all
right we're back to uh we're back to the
studio won't turn off all right
so um we'll need to do some manual and
of the the various streams I'll probably
have to um delete the X stream because
you can't end them when I get to this
error the xtram will just stay live
forever unless I delete it so if I
delete it I lose all the uh monetization
from it all right I'm just going to kill
this and see what I can
do
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