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Episodes Episode #2494

Episode 2494 CWSA 06/03/24

Episode #2494 Jun 3, 2024 1:10:12 36,541 views

Democrats have an idiot problem in leadership ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.

Opening General Commentary

Well, as soon as everybody gets here and I've got my notes, we're going to have the show of shows, a show like you've never seen before. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization. It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and I don't think you've had a better time in you…

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SimultaneousSip General Commentary

r tiny smooth brains, all you need for that is a cup or a mug or a glass or a tanker, a chalice, a stein, a canteen, a jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine of the day. The thing that make…

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NewsReaction Confirmation Bias

. All right. Well, there's a study that says the number of college students diagnosed with PTSD has more than doubled. Do you believe that? I believe that the number diagnosed is more than doubled. Do you think that the number with PTSD has doubled, or do you think maybe it's just because it has a…

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MainContent AI & Technology

ould find, you know, all the good stuff, you would run out of things to make it smarter, which is what's happening. They're running out of new material to train it. So it's as smart as it's going to get from the things it's already trained on. So instead they create what they call synthetic training…

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NewsReaction Politics as Persuasion

some pictures and her mentor was the current president. But of all the things, this is the thing that stood out when I saw her picture. Working the crowds, she's wearing a ponytail and she's pulling it off. You know, not everyone can make a ponytail work, but she totally pulls off a ponytail while s…

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MainContent Cognitive Reframing

n Arizona for the 2020 election. So that sounds pretty convincing. Does that sound pretty convincing? So this is a fact, right? It's a fact. And then I'm going to tell you why you're misinterpreting it. But it's a fact that you're supposed to know how many were mailed out, and then you're supposed t…

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MainContent Cognitive Reframing

aying. Now does that mean that it's not there? I'll tell you what I saw. I saw something that was ambiguous that could be interpreted one of two ways. One way is President said you should drink bleach. The other way is that something ordinary happened that was worded poorly. Now I'm not going to de…

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NewsReaction Politics as Persuasion

ile they talk about how bad Trump could be or is or was. This is like, oh, he's going to become a stealer of democracy. I mean, you almost think they're tubing below the camera angle because they're just way too happy about what they're saying bad about Trump. And it's like creepy uncanny valley stu…

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NewsReaction Media & Fake News

though we already observed him not doing that. That's the weakest take of all takes. Meanwhile, Steve Bannon is suffering a hearing on the 6th or three days from now to decide whether or not he's going to be remanded to prison. Now I don't know what that decision involves. Wasn't he found guilty? S…

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NewsReaction Politics as Persuasion

people to be less inclined to vote for Trump to make it safe for other people to say, oh, lots of people are changing their mind because of the felony. I guess I could do that too. So the point of the polling is to tell you what normal people are thinking even if they're not, so that you, thinking y…

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NewsReaction Media & Fake News

what I think. I think it might be entirely true that half of Americans think he should end his campaign. But do you know what half of Americans also think? Probably half of Americans believe that this should not be a contest between Biden and Trump, wouldn't you agree? Probably half of the country,…

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MainContent Persuasion

ump content than Biden. I don't know how that matches with the 10 times more, but okay. And according to an internal TikTok analysis, Trump content beat Biden content by 10 to 1 in likes and 12 to 1 in views. Does that sound real? Do you believe that TikTok is pushing hard for Trump? Here's one way…

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NewsReaction Politics as Persuasion

ink I could have told him exactly where that would end up. So he's a smart idiot. And I think what causes that is obviously not the smart part because the smart part seems on track. You know, it seems fine. There's something about the gaslighting and the brainwashing that the Democrats get that will…

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MainContent Politics as Persuasion

ving idiots for leaders. In this case they have criminals as leaders because they were actually promoted for doing things that maybe weren't technically illegal but look like they should have been. How smart is it to promote the people who get caught? The reason that we're talking about these two pe…

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MainContent Two Movie Screen

other side was, well, maybe if you were nicer to the Palestinians you wouldn't be in this situation. Both crazy. There are two realities that I don't recognize at all. So let me give you an example. The pro-Israel guy argued that all over the world there are examples of locals who got displaced and…

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NewsReaction Politics as Persuasion

ed States, more of a melting pot. And although people acknowledge that there already Islamic people living within Israel happily and there are no Jewish people living in Gaza happily. But here's the thing. Oh, I had some good point I was going to make there that I just lost while I was talking about…

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Closing General Commentary

ot working. All right, so we have a technical failure. The software won't allow me to go private with just the locals people. Let me try one more time. Locals and supporters, update stream. Yeah, it doesn't seem to work. What happens if I try to cancel the... oops, that didn't work. Yeah, all right.…

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Well, as soon as everybody gets here and I've got my notes, we're going to have the show of shows, a show like you've never seen before. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization. It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and I don't think you've had a better time in your whole life. But if you'd like to take this experience up to levels that no human can even understand with their tiny smooth brains, all you need for that is a cup or a mug or a glass or a tanker, a chalice, a stein, a canteen, a jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine of the day. The thing that makes everything better is called the simultaneous sip. It happens about now.

I hope everybody's here. So good. Ladies and gentlemen, let's talk about some of the fake science before we get to the fake news. Did anybody miss the sip? I'm trying to time it so I stall just long enough you all get in here.

All right. Well, there's a study that says the number of college students diagnosed with PTSD has more than doubled. Do you believe that? I believe that the number diagnosed is more than doubled. Do you think that the number with PTSD has doubled, or do you think maybe it's just because it has a name?

Here's a thought experiment. If I said to you tomorrow there's a new condition, it's a mental condition in which you worry too much about what other people will think about you and it stops you from doing some things, and you'd say, well, that sounds like something that has some other name. And I'd say no, no, it has a new name. It has a new name. There's a new condition. How many people would be diagnosed with that condition tomorrow? Millions. Because as soon as you have a new name for something, suddenly you think, well, I got a name for it. So see which side is this? This side's a little light. Yeah, I think it has something to do with the fact that it became a popular thing that everybody had a name for, and once they had a name for it, everybody had it. We got diagnosed.

But on top of that, I do think that the lesser physical activity and, you know, maybe the ultra-processed foods and just the terror of living in the modern world, it might make it worse. But I would think that 60% of it is just because they gave something a name that was a common experience before it had a name, meaning that people felt bad and traumatized for a variety of reasons, just didn't have a name.

Well, the Wall Street Journal says that AI might be slowing down. And could it be possible it was overrated? Now this falls squarely into the category of things I told you before other people told you, which is it seemed to me logically that once you trained it on everything you could find, you know, all the good stuff, you would run out of things to make it smarter, which is what's happening. They're running out of new material to train it. So it's as smart as it's going to get from the things it's already trained on. So instead they create what they call synthetic training material, which is they have one AI hallucinate, and then the hallucinations became what trains the other AI.

Now on paper, I got to say that sounds like a terrible idea. I don't even know how logically that could work. Can you learn things from your own imagination? Think about that as a human. If you wanted to get good at something, could you just close your eyes and imagine it in an artificial way until you were good at it? I don't know that the machine can do that either. I mean, they say it is, but I got a question about what is the upside potential of that method anyway.

So we've got a few things going on that could make AI overrated. Number one, the advances are slowing down. So each new version of it is not going to be twice as good as the one before it. It might be 5% better and even decreasing after that because they don't have anything new to train it on. And it could be that it's a commodity as well. So it takes a lot of money to train the big ones, but if all the big ones get trained on the same material, i.e. everything on the internet, then they're all going to end up being about the same. So maybe there's not that much. It might be a commodity. It might be like air. So that there's nothing to pay for. It's like, well, everybody's got a trained AI. You know, you can get one for cheap. So it could be that some of the profit will be taken out of it, except for, I suppose, Nvidia will do great.

And there's also a thought that it will be useful for fewer things than we thought. Who told you that first? Me. All the things. Here's the problem. When you imagine AI, you automatically and reflexively imagine that it's smarter than people or that it will be soon. Whereas I said how can it be smarter than people if it's trained on people? I don't think you can be smarter than people if you're trained on people. And if you were to say something smarter than people, you know what would happen? People would reprogram you. It's like, I don't recognize that as being true, so I better get rid of that.

Yeah, it really logically, the way humans operate, I don't think they can build something smarter than themselves, at least with the current technology. I'm allowing that there might be some future development that allows that to be true. But if you're training it on humans, I don't know how it gets smarter than humans. I mean, just my brain can't really hold how that's a possibility. It could be smarter than an individual human on an individual skill, and certainly things like math and planning and chess, you know, the obvious things that computers do, it'll be better than that. But will it be better in, let's say, interpreting what's real, which seems to be the most important thing for us? Can it tell which studies are BS? Will it know who's lying? You know, that's the important stuff, stuff that keeps you alive.

Anyway, Mexico had a vote. The Amuse account on X reminds us that to vote in Mexico you have to have a government-issued ID. That's right. To vote in Mexico you need a government-issued ID. But if you walk across the border, apparently you can vote in the United States with nothing, including citizenship. Now if you get caught, I think your vote won't count, but I'm not so sure too many people are getting caught. So I don't know how that works. Just something to be aware of.

It looks like the winner is Claudia Sheinbaum. Just the weirdest thing. I never expected that the next president of Mexico would be a Jewish woman. I mean, she's a Mexican citizen, but she has a Jewish background. There can't be a ton of that in Mexico. But let me tell you why what I liked about her. I saw, I know nothing about her except I've seen some pictures and her mentor was the current president. But of all the things, this is the thing that stood out when I saw her picture. Working the crowds, she's wearing a ponytail and she's pulling it off. You know, not everyone can make a ponytail work, but she totally pulls off a ponytail while she's campaigning. What do a lot of American politicians do? Do they ever wear ponytails in any official capacity? I feel like I've seen AOC in a ponytail when she was casual, maybe. I like it. She pulls off a ponytail. Is it just me? I'm always impressed by anybody who can simply pull off the look, right? Because the reason that big hair is popular is that we like it better. You have to have just the right look to pull off a ponytail, and she does. That's the least important thing in politics, but there it is.

Here's a story which you probably thought was real news that maybe is fake news. So today I will disappoint my audience by telling you things you thought were true that maybe are not so true. You may have seen a story, as I did this morning, that there's a claim, and I'm going to tell you what's wrong with the claim in a minute, but the claim is that there are 74,000 mail-in ballots received with no record they were mailed out. And that would be more than the margin of victory in Arizona for the 2020 election. So that sounds pretty convincing. Does that sound pretty convincing? So this is a fact, right? It's a fact. And then I'm going to tell you why you're misinterpreting it. But it's a fact that you're supposed to know how many were mailed out, and then you're supposed to keep a record of how many were received. And don't you think it would be a problem if your record of how many you mailed out was way different than the ones you received?

Now if you received way fewer than you mailed out, totally normal. Not everybody's mail-in. But if you received substantially more coming in than you ever sent out, that would be a huge signal for fraud, would you agree? So do you agree that there's no other explanation for that? Okay, are you on the same page with me that there can't be any official explanation that would ever satisfy you if that's true, and it's true, it's confirmed to be true? So how do you interpret that? Think in your mind what could be any other explanation for why you get more in than you ever mailed out in the first place. So therefore there was pretty confirmed bad behavior, wouldn't you say?

All right, so here's what you're going to learn today. That what you think is you analyzing a situation is not what just happened. That's not what happened. What happened is you analyzed your own ability to imagine, and it failed you. You couldn't imagine a situation in which that could be okay, despite the fact that everything about it looks like it's not okay. All right, now I'm going to tell you what the official explanation was. Now I'm not going to say that the official explanation is correct. I'm just going to say that as soon as I heard it, it sounded correct. So it completely will. All right, you ready?

There are two ways to do mail-in voting. One way is they mail it to you. You get it in the mail, you fill it out, and you mail it back. If that was the only way it happened, then it would be a clear sign of fraud if more came back than were ever mailed. But there are two ways. One is it doesn't get mailed to you. You walk into a voting center, you pick it up from a shelf or something, you fill it out, and you drop it in a box. That would be called a mail-in, but nobody mailed it to you. You went to the place where they were sitting in a big pile, took one off the pile, filled it out, and dropped it in the box sitting next to it. Did you know that?

Now that's the claim from the official people who were debunking it. Now my point is not that the election was or was not fair. I would say it's hard from my perspective to know one way or the other. But the point is if you can't imagine what the alternative was, the problem is in your head. Your imagination is not up to the task.

Here's another case like that. I believe that you're all familiar with the fine people hoax about Charlottesville and how something was taken out of context and Democrats came to believe something that never happened. And you know the drinking bleach hoax. Democrats came to believe that Trump said maybe you should drink bleach. Never happened. It looks like there might be a version of that on the Republican side, and it's called Ashley Biden's diary.

So I tried talking about this yesterday with my audience and people just flipped out. And I thought, I'm going to stay away from this topic. And then I saw, thought to myself, no, the flipping out is the story. So I'm going to make you flip out. I challenged my audience because I never talked about the story and I don't want to get into the details. But I'll just say that there's a thing called Ashley Biden's diary, which some people say is fake and some people say is real. I think it's confirmed to be real as far as I know. But then there's a claim that there's a specific entry in there or entries that would, if true, would be a horrible situation that Joe Biden was involved in. I'm not even going to give you any details. I'll just tell you this.

I said, can somebody show me that? I keep hearing about it, but I've never seen it. Like, can you show me the words in the diary? And I said I don't believe it exists. So somebody showed it to me. And then the following thing happened. Here it is. Look right here. And said, I'm looking at it. I don't see what you said. It's right here. Okay, I'm reading it. I see every word you're pointing to. I don't see what you're saying. Now does that mean that it's not there? I'll tell you what I saw. I saw something that was ambiguous that could be interpreted one of two ways. One way is President said you should drink bleach. The other way is that something ordinary happened that was worded poorly.

Now I'm not going to defend anything that anybody did, so don't interpret this as me defending Joe Biden. I'm telling you that the claims that I read all the time on the internet are not supported by the thing that the claims derive from. I looked at it myself. Now part of it is that there are two claims. One has details and one is just an ambiguously worded thing that looks like it could be trouble, but you don't really know for sure. So the one that's got details is not supported by any documents. There's some kind of forgery floating around. So if you heard the one that says under certain conditions a thing happened, there's nothing like that in the diary. There's nothing that said under this condition this happened or how often or what ages were involved. None of that's in the diary. There's just one little thing that any normal person would be very concerned about, but it's a lot like the drinking bleach thing. What she said directly looks really troublesome, but it almost couldn't have been that. In other words, the most provocative interpretation of what it meant is probably the least likely. But if you want to believe that stuff, you kind of go to it automatically.

Now if you add it to the hair sniffing and the weird behavior that we see in public, it does create an overall picture that says maybe we should know more about this. But to say that it's sort of documented in writing and we can all read it? Nope. I don't buy it. I do buy that there's something there that raises your eyebrow all the way past the top of your head. Can we agree on that? I think we can agree that if you read the part that is confirmed to be real, you're going to have some questions. But I think there's probably more than one way to explain what that is, very much like if you didn't know that mail-in votes sometimes you walk into the office and drop it in the box. It's just that your imagination, getting back to my prior point, your imagination fails. When you read the diary, you say to yourself, I'm pretty sure this could only mean one thing and it's really, really bad. But could it? Can you imagine that if you heard the real story behind it, it would sound different? I'm not saying it would. I'm saying can you imagine it? Because I think we need a little better standard for blaming innocent people of crimes, especially bad ones. It shouldn't be that you strongly suspect it. I think we need to go a little bit better than that. But I'm not saying it's false. I'm just saying a little better evidence would be better.

All right. Speaking of Biden's kids, Hunter Biden's going in for his felony gun charges. You know, when this whole felony gun charge thing first came up, my first instinct is that this is not the thing that I want my legal system to be chasing because I like the Second Amendment, right? And I know that the law, particular law, said he lied on his application and he was an addict and so he shouldn't get a gun. And I understand the technical part of the law. But as a Second Amendment supporter, I just had some problems with the fact that of all the things in the world you would go after him for wanting to own a gun. And probably he's in the category of people who are safer with one. I mean, maybe the people around him are less safe, I suppose. But I've completely changed my mind on this because of the lawfare case. Because I'm fairly certain that Joe Biden would behind the lawfare against Trump. I think his family is in play. Sorry, yeah, yeah. If Hitler were doing Hitler things and you had a chance to take out his kids, you'd do it. You'd do it. And Biden is doing Hitler things. So when you're lawfaring the other candidate, trying to put him in jail and maybe trying to kill him, if the legal system comes for your kid, it's war. It's war. So I would say my empathy for Hunter has disappeared. And I'm not proud of it. I'm not proud of it because it takes me off principle. So anyway, I'm not even going to comment on what I'm seeing in the comments.

All right. You should know it's fake historian season. We're in fake poll, fake news, fake historian, fake justice system territory as we approach the election. But the one I always look forward to is the fake historians. So the bad guys have these historians who will say absolutely anything and they'll act like they're experts because they're historians. Here's what we know today. History is all fake. History is fake. We know that because we're watching fake history being written in real time during our lifetime. What are the chances that it just started? We've always known that the winners write the history. Yeah, there's nothing about our history that's accurate. The facts, maybe some of the big facts about what war happened and who died and who was the king. But all the narrative, the stuff about why anything happened, that's all fake. How would you like your job to be an historian and you have to pretend the history is real? That's a weird job.

So if there's anybody you should not trust in this world, it's someone who thinks history is real because they might also think the news is real today. I because they live in a world in which they have to believe that that fiction is real because their job is to tell you that it is. Hey, that fiction about history, that's totally real. Listen to me. I'm an expert on it. So one of these historians, Michael Beschloss, he's famous for coming out with those grinning things that are bad for Trump. Yeah, have you seen the face where they're a little bit too happy about the things coming out of their mouth? I don't even know how to describe that face, but they're so happy it looks like they're having some kind of physical dopamine overdose while they talk about how bad Trump could be or is or was. This is like, oh, he's going to become a stealer of democracy. I mean, you almost think they're tubing below the camera angle because they're just way too happy about what they're saying bad about Trump. And it's like creepy uncanny valley stuff. It's like, oh, what's wrong with you?

Anyway, Beschloss is the top of that list, and he says he warns that Trump's second term could lead to dictatorship and anarchy. The choice is actually pretty clear. We've got a convicted felon. He's a historian and he told you that Trump is a convicted felon, and he left out the fact that it was complete lawfare and that nobody but Trump would have ever been convicted of it or even indicted. He's a historian who proved to you while you were watching he could not interpret correctly the narrative of our current time. But his job is to tell you the narrative of all the prior times, which we all know at this point is fake news. Now could there be a more ridiculous character? I can't imagine a more useless and worthless human being than somebody who studies history like it was real, knowing it isn't, and then gives you pronouncements about how because of the felony, which is fake, that means that Trump will turn into a dictator and anarchy, even though we already observed him not doing that. That's the weakest take of all takes.

Meanwhile, Steve Bannon is suffering a hearing on the 6th or three days from now to decide whether or not he's going to be remanded to prison. Now I don't know what that decision involves. Wasn't he found guilty? So I don't know exactly what they're going to be talking about. Is there some appeal that I don't know about anyway? Let's game this out. Let's say Steve Bannon goes to jail. Is that good for Democrats or bad for Democrats? It's bad for Steve Bannon if he goes to jail. But my guess is that Trump is going to raise more money and it's going to make more people vote for Trump because it's going to look to people like yet another example of lawfare. And whatever you thought happened to Trump, if you wondered if it might be coming for you, you're going to say to yourself, I don't know the details of this case. I'm not sure what that Peter Navarro situation was. I don't know what the Steve Bannon situation was. But it all sounds like they're going after Trump supporters for details, you know, like technicalities. Now you could argue whether they are, but it would feel like that to the casual news watcher. So I would think that if Steve Bannon goes to jail, it's going to be a boost for Trump. I don't want him to go to jail, but I feel like that's the way it would go at this point.

We're also in, as I said, not just the fake historian season but also in the fake news season, even faker than usual because it's election season. And The Hill has a story with a headline: "Why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy?" Do you need to read that? Is that an article you want to click on and say, huh, let's dig into this a little bit? Why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy? Does anybody have a question about why people are negative about the economy? I'm pretty sure anybody who ever bought anything in the last year, you know what's wrong with the economy. Anybody who is White and tried to get a job recently, you sure know what's wrong with the economy. Yeah, no, it's not really a mystery. I'm sorry, The Hill publication. I don't really need to read your article about why Americans are feeling so negative about the economy. And let me suggest that the tone of the title of the article, "Why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy," suggests that whatever this article I didn't read says is going to be a steaming pile of about how everything is great and I don't know what's wrong with you. Just because you can't afford, why are you not seeing clearly that everything's terrific? So fake news season. You don't have to read that article. It's also fake polling season.

I told you, and you'll be able to see it yourself, that there need to be a bunch of fake polls to balance out the real ones if things aren't going your way. Because if you plan to cheat or even if you just want to keep your supporters incentivized and feeling like they can win, you do some fake polls to balance things out. Now I don't know exactly which ones will be fake and which aren't, but it's a guarantee that there will be fake ones. And when I say fake, all they need to do is tweak a few variables in how they ask the questions and they can get any result they want.

So here's one. About half of Americans, this is according to a poll, ABC News/Ipsos poll. Would you trust a corporate news entity like ABC to be associated with a poll during election season that was accurate? Or would it be your expectation that this is really likely to be the kind of poll that would be fake? Because they would want the public to think that the felony conviction is causing people to be less inclined to vote for Trump to make it safe for other people to say, oh, lots of people are changing their mind because of the felony. I guess I could do that too. So the point of the polling is to tell you what normal people are thinking even if they're not, so that you, thinking you're a normal person too, can maybe be a little more likely to be persuaded to be on the same side with the normal people.

So let's see what the normal people said. About half of Americans believe Trump should end his campaign after the guilty verdict. Half of Americans think he should end his campaign because of the guilty verdict. Does that sound like a legitimate poll? Before I even tell you the answer, I mean, you didn't even need to know what the answer was. Does that sound legitimate? Let me tell you what's wrong with it, if it wasn't jumping out at you. Here's what's wrong with it. This is a poll in which they ask you to compare Trump to Trump. Did you get that? It's a poll about the election in which you're asked to compare Trump to himself. So you're comparing Trump not convicted to a Trump convicted. Is that what you're going to vote for when you go to the election or you mail in your ballot? Are you going to say, huh, who do I vote for, Trump who wasn't convicted or Trump who was convicted? No, that's not your choice. That's not your choice. The choice is only, and the only one that matters, Trump versus Biden. Right? That's the only one that matters. And if you ask a different question so that you can get an answer that sounds more like what you want to hear, that's an influence poll. That's not about information.

All right. At the same time, in the article on this, it says that Trump's approval level stayed the same. So could it be true that half of Americans think he should drop out of the race at the same time that his approval levels stay the same? If his approval levels had changed, you maybe that would be telling you something.

All right, so here's what I think. I think it might be entirely true that half of Americans think he should end his campaign. But do you know what half of Americans also think? Probably half of Americans believe that this should not be a contest between Biden and Trump, wouldn't you agree? Probably half of the country, if you gave them the choice, they'd say, you know, we do love Trump versus Biden, but all things considered, like if we could just start with a blank slate, we'd go in with a 40-something DeSantis, 40-year-old, whatever age he is, and we'd get more years of young people and we wouldn't have the provocations and all the worry and everything. So it seems to me this is clearly a poll that's designed to drive opinions as opposed to tell you what opinions are.

Maureen Dowd, who's a famous Trump non-lover for the New York Times, reports that her sister, who interestingly is a Republican, decided that she would vote for Trump because of the felony conviction. It's her own sister. So one of the famous anti-Trumpers is, to her credit, she's reporting it. So you have to give her credit for transparency. But the sister's reason is the interesting thing. It wasn't just that it was unfair and people are saying, yeah, the system's unfair, we're going to have to correct it by electing Trump. It went deeper. And here's what I warned you about. She was worried that there's nobody that would protect her. So Maureen Dowd's sister is a Republican, and when she watched the top Republican get lawfared, she said, who would protect me? You know, my father, my dad, who would protect me if I got lawfared? And so she realized that she's living in an environment that's too unsafe as a Republican, and that she had to vote for the one person who might be able to protect her, and that's Trump.

Now that is important. It's one person, so we don't know if that's a generalized feeling. But it is what I predicted. And what I predicted was empathy, that people would see Trump as themselves for the first time. When Trump is in the golden towers, I don't say to myself, oh, he's just like me. When he's doing trumpy things like rallies and things, it doesn't feel just like me. But when he gets accused of something that's sketchy and then the system closes in on him, that is me. Because I live in the same system. That system is surrounding me, touches me every moment I walk and live and breathe. Same system. If it got him, I feel it personally. Now I'm a public figure, so maybe I'm at more risk than the average person. But if somebody who's just a voter, an ordinary Republican, is going to say that I feel threatened because Trump got lawfared, that's what I predicted. I predicted empathy. You see, remember, empathy is not just your empathy for the other person. There's always a little bit of it which is I'm glad it's not me. That's connected to empathy. I'm glad it's not me. So I think people feel this one personally. I did. Yeah, the conviction of Trump didn't feel like a political outcome to me. It wasn't just because I'm supporting him for president. It felt personal. Like I felt I was being handcuffed. I mean, I can't explain it, but did anybody have the same experience? That you just put yourself in the scene and you saw yourself unfairly convicted and lawfared. Because we've all been, I think most of us have had the experience where the system was against them unfairly. It could have been anything. Could have been your school administrators, your job. But everybody's felt the system being against them. And then we watched it happen to Trump.

Anyway, here's the other way they use the fake polls. I think this was maybe in some publication. They said that Trump has a 1.8% lead based on 173 polls. So he's up 1.8% based on the average of 173 polls. How many of those polls are credible? Well, during fake polling season, you don't want Trump to look like he's up five because that would be too big to rig. So you put a bunch of fake ones in the mix. And then all the people who are trying to be reasonable, but of course they're making a mistake, they say, well, the reasonable thing would be to take the average. No, no. The reasonable thing would be to take the average if you knew that they all did a similarly credible job of doing their work. But you don't. You don't average the fake polls with the real ones. That's what they did. Because I'm sure that some percentage of these are legitimately faked. Right? In other words, the people who did them knew what they were doing when they did them. You don't average fake polls and real ones. That's nothing. That's trying to hide the ball. That's what that is.

Meanwhile, Trump is on TikTok, as you know. But here's a surprise. Somebody named Tara Palmieri, I don't know what her role is, but she seems to know some stuff. She said that the pro-Trump content is 10 to 12 times more popular than pro-Biden stuff on TikTok. And she says two TikTok officials told her that since November there's been two times more pro-Trump content than Biden. I don't know how that matches with the 10 times more, but okay. And according to an internal TikTok analysis, Trump content beat Biden content by 10 to 1 in likes and 12 to 1 in views. Does that sound real? Do you believe that TikTok is pushing hard for Trump?

Here's one way to explain it, and I don't know if this is enough. Biden is not memeable, but Trump is super memeable. Like the Trump memes are funny and they're interesting. Have you seen the one where Trump is riding the back of a giant golden eagle and the golden eagle picks up Biden from the water like a fish and Trump is like, yeah? Have you seen that one? It is terrific. It's just terrific. And even if it weren't an election, you'd laugh at it because it's so well done. So I just don't know that the left can meme. You know, we've been saying that for years. I think the quality of the meme has got to have a big impact on who views it and likes it. So I would think that because Trump is the most memeable character in the history of characters and Biden is the least memeable character in the history of politicians, at least, you would expect more Trump action. But that there's so much even in what you would imagine would be a more left-leaning vehicle is weird. It does suggest that China maybe is not putting their finger on the scales. Or do you imagine that China is putting their finger on the scales of TikTok because they want Trump to win? Can you think of a reason why China would want Trump to win? Think of a reason for that. I've got one. Why would they want Trump to win?

Now if you're a Trump supporter, you're going to immediately go to, oh, because they can negotiate with him. Right? I don't know. Maybe. Allow me to suggest another possibility. If China is watching the news in America like everybody else, you know, they must have people who are good at English and watching the news and summarizing it for the leaders. I'm sure that's happening in some form. They would be watching the United States grappling with the most controversial character of all time, and it might look like the election of Trump would tear the country apart. So it's entirely possible that from China's perspective, if they believe MSNBC and they believe CNN, at least half of CNN, they might think that the worst thing that could happen to America is for Trump to be reelected because it'll tear the country apart. They might be right. But if you go with the theory that China could make TikTok put their finger on any algorithm and any content they wanted, if you think that there is really control there and if you think they exercised it, the only reason you would exercise it 10 to 1 in favor of Trump, which doesn't sound real to me, I mean it just doesn't sound real, unless it's a thumb on the scale situation. Maybe they think he's bad for America. Maybe. I don't know.

Here's my mini theme for today. Democrats have an idiot problem in leadership. I'm going to give you several examples of idiots in the leadership of Democrats. You know Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock. They were really big on ESG and then he said ESG is really embarrassing us. We better pull back because all the DEI thing completely exploded and embarrassed them. Now he's saying that you need clean energy that isn't intermittent because we're going to need so much for our data centers. Do you know what that means? Pro-nuclear. And maybe get your finger off of all the things that would stop energy from being produced. I think Larry Fink is who I call a smart idiot. If he and I did an IQ test, I think he'd beat me. You know, I think he probably could get into a better school than I could have at the time, etc. So I'm not saying his IQ wasn't high. But with this ESG stuff, we observe him acting like an idiot. Like maybe he didn't understand the implications of what would happen if he made ESG his centerpiece of his thing. But it looks like it all blew up in his face. And I think I could have told him. I think I could have told him exactly where that would end up. So he's a smart idiot. And I think what causes that is obviously not the smart part because the smart part seems on track. You know, it seems fine. There's something about the gaslighting and the brainwashing that the Democrats get that will make even the smartest person turn into an idiot.

But then they have real idiots too, like Maxine Waters. So she's saying that Trump's supporters are quote domestic terrorists and she wonders if they're preparing a civil war against us. So she said that again recently. Now you could say to yourself, well, she doesn't believe those things. She's just saying them for political purposes. But if she is, she's the worst leader ever because it's just a terrible thing for a leader to be saying. So I'd say she's a leader and she's an idiot. But unlike Larry Fink, who might have a high IQ, there's no indication she's anything but dumb.

I watched a conversation online between Megyn Kelly and David Pakman. Now David Pakman is a prominent pundit, podcaster on the left. And what I learned was that when somebody on the left talks to a well-informed person on the right, it always goes the same way. The person on the left realizes that they haven't been getting correct news the entire time. So Megyn Kelly fact-checked him so hard I think he left his jockstrap a block back. I mean, he got banged down hard. And when I was done with it, I said to myself, huh, David Pakman does not look nearly as smart as Megyn Kelly. Like they don't look like they're even on the same level really. But David Pakman's a prominent voice on the left and compared to Megyn Kelly came off as an idiot. But he would be a normal person. He has normal IQ. But I think he too, based on what I saw, he didn't know enough about what was true. So his opinions were all ridiculous because he didn't know what the facts were. And when Megyn Kelly sort of informed him what was true, it caused like some kind of weird cognitive dissonance in him. So you have to watch that.

Then so that's more idiots. David Sachs on the X profile points out that the Hillary campaign operative who cooked the books to hide payments for the Steele dossier became the SEC chairman. Then the Biden campaign operative who orchestrated the 51 spies who lied about Hunter's crimes on the laptop became Secretary of State. And then David Sachs says Dems know how to reward election interference. Now I'm going to add this to my theme of Democrats having idiots for leaders. In this case they have criminals as leaders because they were actually promoted for doing things that maybe weren't technically illegal but look like they should have been. How smart is it to promote the people who get caught? The reason that we're talking about these two people who got rewarded is because we know what they did. I'm going to go with Trump. I prefer people who don't get caught. I think the smart people can do bad things and not get caught. But the Democrats have people who aren't smart enough to get away with it because they all got caught. But they got rewarded anyway. So I guess I should ask who's the smart one here? Is it me or them? They got promoted, so maybe they're the smart ones in this case.

Then we have the Biden dementia tapes. Still trying to get those. Apparently they've been locked in a SCIF so that somebody can go listen to them but they can't let you listen to it. That's right. So then when let's say some Republican listens to it and comes back and says, oh, it was really terrible, he was in bad shape, all they have to do is send down Adam Schiff to say no, he's not, he's fine. I listened to the same thing. So they're going to SCIF Schiff us. The play is to SCIF Schiff. The SCIF shift, as you put it in the SCIF, this highly secure place where nobody can take a picture of it or take a copy. They can only experience it inside that room. So all they have to do is send their best liars into the room and they'll come out and say, no, it was fine. I listened to it too. It's fine. The play here is so obvious. It's just so obvious that it's a SCIF shift play. Yeah, it's just a standard SCIF shift.

Well, my questions have been answered about the Soros organization or at least why Alex Soros is going along with his dad's ideas that are terrible and destroying the world. There's a clip of him at the WEF just talking about a topic. And I'll just give you one quote to show you that what we learn from watching him talk in public, he seems to be an idiot. He just actually seems to be dumb and maybe really dumb based on the clip. So he's talking to the public. One man, Donald Trump, literally came in and just took that, took that, took that all away. You know, so you know, you know, you know, you know, you took that, you took that checks and balances that, you know, we had these customs, these, well, you know, the customs and he came in like Donald Trump. He then he like took it all away from us.

Now I might be exaggerating a little bit on there, but you have to listen to it. If you listen to him talking, you will immediately understand why nobody asks him for interviews. There's no way he's going to say yes to an interview because he's incompetent talking in public. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find anybody who can't talk in public as much as he can't talk in public. He's really, really bad at it. So he probably just says no because he can't talk in public. I guess in that case he had to try, but it was just a train wreck. Yeah, wow. And he must be under the Trump is Hitler train because he thinks not only is Trump stealing your democracy but he's stealing your unwritten customs. That's right. Trump stole your unwritten rules. That's what he said in public. Wow.

Also, Konstantin Kisin did a great thing for the world that didn't work out at all. You know how I've been saying that we need to have legitimate debates on topics where you've got plenty of time but you've also got a strong host, a moderator who can really keep you in line and don't do it in like this political way where you let the politicians lie. You know, just get some experts, some people who really know what they're talking about, put them together, put a strong moderator in the middle. Boom. Everybody gets better informed and maybe you can work something out. That's what I thought until yesterday. And then I watched Konstantin Kisin do, again I'll say, a great thing for the public, which is he tried to pull off the very thing we think we wanted. And the topic was Gaza and what should Israel have done and what should they do now, I guess. And he had two sides.

And here's the model that I held in my head until that moment. When two parties disagree on something, you know, they might want different things. Some wants this, the other wants that. Usually, unless the parties are just totally bad people, you can usually find a compromise. You could find some way to find a negotiated settlement that everybody's not perfectly happy with but happy enough. And so we imagine that that model, which works all the time in business, right? In business you're always negotiating and usually you can work stuff out. So why can't they? Well, I found out why. And I'm going to tell you a reframe here that will explain a lot going forward. It's one I hadn't noticed before. It goes like this. The people who were on the two sides of the Gaza debate did not disagree on what should be done per se, although that's what it looked like on the surface. They disagreed on reality. They disagreed on reality. And they weren't even close.

And let me tell you, you can't negotiate a middle ground between two different versions of reality. You can't get there from here. So I thought that it could ever be negotiated while the two are living in completely different realities of how we got here and who's the bad guy and who's the good guy. You can't. You can't negotiate that. It's completely absurd. I actually used to think, and by the way this is something that one of the debate people said in effect, the pro-Palestinian arguers said the Palestinians have a set of demands that are somewhat reasonable. Now this would be their view. And if you were to make some action toward addressing their demands, you could stop the terrorism. So you could stop another October 7th by simply addressing the legitimate concerns of the Palestinians. And once they saw that things are moving in the right direction, the reason for terrorism would go away and they'd say, oh, this is working, so we'll just keep doing this peaceful negotiating because we got a few things, we'll get some more. That can't work if you're living in different realities. That only works if you're in the same reality and you want different things and then you have something you can work with because you don't want the same things. The same things that are limited resources, you can't make a deal if everybody wants the thing that there's only one of. You can't solve that. But in a normal situation, you want work, I want money, we can make a deal because we don't want the same thing and we live in the same reality. The reality is you have a job, I have skills, you have money. Same reality. You can always make that work.

But here are some of the things I heard. And let me tell you who I sided with. Both sides are completely upright. So there's a pro-Israel side. Everything they're doing is what you have to do in October 7th. And then the other side was, well, maybe if you were nicer to the Palestinians you wouldn't be in this situation. Both crazy. There are two realities that I don't recognize at all. So let me give you an example. The pro-Israel guy argued that all over the world there are examples of locals who got displaced and should have the right of return like the Palestinians. But his point is why are you only looking at Israel like the one place where the people who got kicked out should have the right to come back when all over the world there are people who have been kicked out of all kinds of places and then nobody's saying right of return for them. So why are you saying it for Israel? Does that sound like a good argument to you? What do all of the other places have to do with this? Nothing. Nothing. It's not even on point. Well, what do you think Israel and the Palestinians should do? Well, there's this totally other situation. No, that's just another situation. To imagine that that's like a leading point or you're winning your argument if you take that out, that's insane.

Let me tell you the only model that makes any sense whatsoever. Whoever has the power to hold land holds it until somebody else has more power and then they take it away from you. That's all it is. To imagine that there's some narrative that we should all accept on either side or anything in the middle is really absurd. You can pick your narrative if you want, but it doesn't make any difference. It's just power. And now let me ask you this. Imagine you're a Palestinian. And by the way, one of the participants, what was her name? Forgot to write it down, but Konstantin later called her DEI Barbie. Apparently things didn't go well toward the end of the debate. He called her DEI Barbie after the fact. They were arguing on X, but that's pretty gutsy to do that anyway. One of the points she made is she said that there are Palestinians, I don't know if this is literally true or it just sounds good, who still have the key to the door where they used to live in Israel and now there's somebody else living there and they weren't compensated. Now what do you do about them? And it's worse. It wasn't even that Israel conquered the land and took it over. Somebody else gave them their house. So just imagine you're a Palestinian and you wake up one day. It's like, hey, the UN decided that Israel owns this land. But do they own my house? Well, no, but things are going to get really tough when they start moving in. What do you mean? Well, I mean legally you could keep your house but things might get a little tense once you're outnumbered. And next thing you know if you're a Palestinian, it looks like, and I'm saying this is how it would feel. I try to put myself in the situation and say how would I feel. Here's what it feels like. The UN gave your house to your enemies and never talked to you about it. Wait a minute. The UN gave my house to my enemy and I wasn't consulted.

Now you could go back and say yes, but before that the Jews lived there forever and then the Arabs kicked them out. And so really it's the Jews coming home. And you could argue with forever. But here's one of the things that Konstantin helpfully tried to inject because both sides wanted to talk about the past, the past grievances. Now your instinct says if you're locked in the past you'll never make progress. So Konstantin is trying to say, all right, all right, we could talk about the past but what should we do today? Like what are you going to do? What should Israel have done differently? And it turns out that neither side was willing to forget the past because they say you're not really going to understand the present without the past. Separating them doesn't make sense. But when they say the past, what they mean is their narrative of the past, which is fiction. Both the narratives are fiction. There's not a true one and a fake one. You knew that, right? In this kind of stuff there's no real one. There's always just the two narratives. And each will leave out the inconvenient things for the other ones.

So I'm just to clarify, I'm pro-Israel being a country and they're our ally and I'm glad that we're supporting them, etc. But there's no truth. Like if you think any of it has to do with truth, I think you're lost. It's power. The Israelis have the power to hold the country. They're going to build it. They're doing lots of good things. And that's the end of the story. I could have an opinion about it but it wouldn't change the fact that they have the power to hold it. That's kind of the whole story. But I don't believe in if you give the Palestinians what they're asking for everything will be good. Because anybody who's pro-Palestinian likes to do the thing where they ignore the we want to kill every Jew and take all your land, which they would say used to be their land. So you can't really negotiate if part of the negotiators want you dead and that's their final offer. So to imagine this is negotiable is just kind of crazy. Kind of crazy.

So I'm going to give Konstantin big props for holding the event. I think PBD did a similar thing with Chris Cuomo and comic Dave Smith and that certainly produced some good entertainment. And I'd like to see more of it. But I would say that there's no point in having a debate where if you're starting from different realities and that's not going to change.

So meanwhile there's some confusion over this so-called ceasefire peace plan roadmap thing that Biden says is Israel's idea but Israel says no, we just tweaked a few things. And then somebody else says, what they say, I've confused two things here. Oh, it's strange that they say it's an Israeli proposal and at the same time they say Israel needs to agree to it. So I guess the Biden administration has said, oh yeah, this is Israel's idea as soon as they agree to it. Wait, if it's their idea, didn't they start with agreeing with their own idea? Or did they have an idea they didn't agree with and they've got to be convinced to agree with their own idea? Or is it possible that Biden has been lying to us the entire time? I'm going to go with lying to us the entire time.

And I like, getting back to Konstantin's debate here, one of the guys on the pro-Israel side said that all Hamas has to do is stop fighting and losing wars and everything will be fine. I used to believe that too. I used to believe that if just the Palestinians would just stop losing wars they could negotiate with the rest of the world and get what they wanted. I don't think there's any chance of that because there's a hardcore faction that will never stop doing it. And it doesn't matter if half of them want peace if the other half doesn't. There's nothing you can do with that. No. So there it seems that there's enough people who want to destroy all of Israel that there's nothing you can do. It's just power. They will keep coming and Israel will keep beating them back as long as they can anyway.

Then it looked like one of the things that Konstantin was complaining about is that the woman who he called the DEI Barbie after the event, not during the event, but that she wouldn't answer a question. But I didn't see that exactly. I know what he was talking about but that she wouldn't answer the question of what Israel should have done or should do. And it sounded like she was just talking about the past. But she did kind of meander back to it. And here was her answer, that Israel should be more like the United States, more of a melting pot. And although people acknowledge that there already Islamic people living within Israel happily and there are no Jewish people living in Gaza happily. But here's the thing. Oh, I had some good point I was going to make there that I just lost while I was talking about the other stuff.

All right. Well, I don't think that just stopping fighting is going to fix anything because there seems to be some permanent difference in reality. I guess that's the bottom line.

All right, ladies and gentlemen, that's all I've got for you on today's news. Thanks for joining. I'm going to go talk to the locals people privately. And I'm going to say goodbye to X and YouTube and Rumble. And I'm going to stall a little bit and drink some coffee because I understand there's a delay in the transmission. So the main show is over but I'm just stalling and having a sip of coffee. All right, locals people, here I come. Locals only. Let's see, update stream. Is it working? It is not working. All right, so we have a technical failure. The software won't allow me to go private with just the locals people. Let me try one more time. Locals and supporters, update stream. Yeah, it doesn't seem to work. What happens if I try to cancel the... oops, that didn't work. Yeah, all right. So I can't go private. But let me do this. I'm going to end the Rumble Studio stream and see if I can keep up the other stream. Would that work? All right. Locals, I'm going to open up another stream if it doesn't continue. I'm just going to close the main Rumble Studio and I'll talk to you if I can. All right, it's not even ending. All right, we're back to the studio won't turn off. All right, so we'll need to do some manual end of the various streams. I'll probably have to delete the X stream because you can't end them when I get to this error. The X stream will just stay live forever unless I delete it. So if I delete it, I lose all the monetization from it. All right, I'm just going to kill this and see what I can do.

well as soon as everybody gets here and I've got my notes we're going to have the show of shows a show like you've never seen before good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called coffee with Scott Adams and I don't think you've had a better time in your whole life but if you'd like to take this experience up to levels that no human can even understand with their tiny smooth brains all you need for that is a cuper marber glass with tanker chalice sign a canteen Jugger flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid eyelight coffee and join me now for the unparallel pleasure of the dopamine of the day thing makes everything better it's called the simultaneous sipping happens about now I hope everybody's here so good ladies and Gentlemen let's talk about some of the fake science before we get to the fake news did anybody miss the Sip I'm trying to time it so I stall just long enough you all get in here all right well there's a study that says the number of college students diagnosed with PTSD has more than doubled do you believe that I believe that the number diagnosed is more than doubled do you think that the number with PTSD has doubled or do you think maybe it's just because has a name here's a mental experiment if I said to you tomorrow there's a new condition it's a mental condition in which you worry too much about what other people will think about you and it stops you from doing some things and you'd say well that sounds like something that has some other name and I'd say no no has a new name has a new name there's a new condition how many people would be diagnosed with that condition tomorrow Millions because as soon as you have a new name for something suddenly you think well I got a name for it so see which side is this side's a little light yeah I think it has something to do with the fact that it became a popular thing that everybody had a name for and once they had a name for it everybody had it we got diagnosed but on top of that I do think that uh the the Lesser physical activity and you know maybe the ultr processed foods and and uh just the terror of living in the modern world it might make it worse but I would think that 60% of it is just because they gave something a name that was a common experience before had a name meaning that people felt bad and traumatized for a variety of reasons just didn't have a name well the Wall Street Journal says that AI might be slowing down and uh couldn't it's possible it's it was overrated now this Falls squarely into the category of things I told you before other people told you which is it seemed to me logically that once you trained it on everything you could find you know all the good stuff you would run out of things to make it smarter which is what's happening they're running out of new material to train it so it's as smart as it's going to get from the things it's already trained on so instead they create what they call synthetic training material which is they have one AI I know hallucinate and then the hallucinations became what trains the other AI now on paper I got to say that sounds like a terrible idea I don't even know how logically that could work you know can can you learn things from your own IM imagination think about that as a human if you wanted to like get good at something could you just close your eyes and imagine it in an artificial way until you were good at it I don't know that the machine can do that either I mean they say it is but I got a question about what is the upside potential of that method anyway so we got a few things going on that could make AI overrated number one the advances are slowing down so each new version of it is not going to be you know twice as good as the one before it might be 5% better and even decreasing after that because they don't have anything new to train it on and it could be that um it's a commodity as well so so it takes a lot of money to train the big ones but if all the big ones get trained on the same material I.E everything on the internet then they're all going to end up being about the same so maybe there's not that much it might be a commodity it might be like air so that there's nothing to pay for it's like Well everybody's got a trained AI you know you can get one for cheap so it could be that some of the profit will be taken out of it except for I suppose Nvidia will do great um and uh there's also a thought that it will be useful for fewer things than we thought who told you that first me uh all the things here's the problem when you imagine AI you automatically and reflexively imagine that it's smarter than people or that it will be soon whereas I said how can it be smarter than people if it's trained on people I don't think you can be smarter than people if you're trained on people and if you were to say something smarter than people you know what would happen people would reprogram you it's like I don't recognize that as being true so I'm I better get rid of that yeah it really logically the way humans operate I don't think they can build something smarter than themselves at least with the current technology there there I'm allowing that there might be some future development that allows that to be true but if you're training it on humans I don't know how it gets smarter than humans I mean just my brain can't really hold how that's a possibility it could be smarter than an individual human on an individual skill and certainly things like math and planning and chess you know the obvious things that computers do it'll be better than that but will it be better in let's say interpreting what's real which seems to be the most important thing for us can it tell which studies are a BS will I know who's lying you know that's the important stuff stuff that keeps you alive anyway Mexico had a vote uh the amuse account on X reminds us that to vote in Mexico you have to have a government issued ID that's right to vote in Mexico you need a government issued ID but if you walk across the border apparently you can vote in the United States with nothing including citizenship now if you get caught I think your vote won't count but I'm not so sure too many people are getting caught so I don't know how that works um just uh something to be aware of it looks like the winner is Claudia Shin bomb uh just the weirdest thing I never expected that the next president of Mexico would be a a Jewish woman I mean she's a Mexican citizen but she has a Jewish background there can't be a a ton of that in Mexico but let me tell you why what I liked about her I saw I know nothing about her except I've seen some pictures and she's her Mentor was the current president uh but of all the things this is the thing that stood out when I saw her picture was work in the crowds she's she she's wearing a ponytail and and she's pulling it off you know not not everyone can make a ponytail work but she totally pulls off a ponytail while she's while she's uh you know doing her uh campaigning I what do a lot of American politicians do they ever wear ponytails in any official capacity I feel like I've seen a AOC in a ponytail when she was casual maybe I don't I lik it she pull she pulls off a ponytail is it just me I'm always I'm always impressed by anybody can simply pull off the look right because the reason that you know big hair is popular is that we like it better you you have to have just the right look to pull off a ponytail and she does that's the least important thing in politics but there it is um here's story which you probably thought was real news that maybe is fake news so today I will disappoint my Audience by telling you things you thought were true that maybe are not so true you may have seen a story as I did this morning that there's a claim and I'm going to tell you that you what's wrong with the claim in a minute but the claim is that there are 74,000 mail-in ballots received with no record they were mailed out and that would be more than the margin of victory in Arizona for in the 2020 election so that sounds pretty does that sound pretty convincing so this is a fact right it's a fact and then I'm going to tell you why you're misinterpreting it but it's a fact that you're supposed to know how many were mailed out and then you're supposed to keep record of how many were received and don't you think it would be a problem if your record of how many you mailed out was way different than the ones you received now if you received way fewer than you mailed out totally normal not everybody's mails in but if you received substantially more coming in than you ever sent out that would be a huge signal for fraud would you agree so would do you agree that there's no other explanation for that okay are you on the same page with me that there can't be any official explanation that would ever satisfy you if that's true and it's true it's confirmed to be true so how do how do you interpret that think in your mind what could be any other explanation for why you get more in than you ever mailed out in the first place so therefore there was pretty confirmed um bad behavior wouldn't you say all right so here's what you're going to learn today that what you think is you analyzing a situation is not what just happened that's not what happened what happened is you analyzed your own ability to imagine and it failed you you couldn't imagine a situation in which that could be okay despite the fact that everything about it looks like it's not okay all right now I'm going to tell you what the official explanation was now I'm not going to say that the official explanation is correct I'm just going to say that as soon as I heard it it sounded correct so it complete will all right you ready there are two ways to do mail-in voting one way is they mail it to you you get it in the mail you fill it out and you mail it back if that was the only way it happened then it would be clear sign of fraud if more came back than were ever mailed in but there are two ways one is is it doesn't get mailed to you you walk into a voting Center you pick it up from a shelf or something you fill it out and you drop it in a box that would be called a mailin but nobody mailed it to you you went to the place where they were sitting in a big pile took one off the pile filled it out and dropped it in the Box sitting next to it did you know that now that's the claim from the official people who were debunking it now my point is not that the election was or was not fair I would say it's hard you know from my perspective to know one way or the other but the point is if you can't imagine what the alternative was the problem is in your head your your imagination is not up to the task here's another case like that I believe that the um you're all familiar with the fine people hoax about Charlottesville and how something was taken out of context and Democrats came to believe something that never happened and you know the drinking bleach hes Democrats came to believe that Trump said maybe you should drink bleach never happened it looks like there might be a version of that on the Republican side and it's called Ashley Biden's diary so I tried talking about this uh yesterday with my audience and people just flipped out and I oh I'm going to stay away from this topic and then I saw thought to myself no the flipping out is the story so I'm going to make you flip out I I challenged my audience because I never talked about the story and I don't want don't want to get into the details but I'll just say that there's a thing called Ashley Biden's diary which uh some people say is fake and some people say is real I think it's confirmed to be real as far as I know but then there's a claim that there's a specific entry in there or entry that would uh if true would be a horrible situation that Joe Biden was involved in I'm not even going to give you any details I'll just tell you this I said can somebody show me that I keep hearing about it but I've never seen it like can you show me the words in the diary and I said I don't believe it exists so somebody showed it to me and then the following thing happened here it is look right here and said I'm looking at it I don't see what you said it's right here okay I'm reading it I see every word you're pointing to I don't see what you're saying now does that mean that it's not there I'll tell you what I saw I saw something that was ambiguous that could be interpreted one of two ways one way is president said you should drink bleach the other way is that he something ordinary happened that was worded poorly now I'm not going to defend anything that anybody did so don't interpret this as me defending Joe Biden I'm telling you that the claims that I read all the time on the internet are not supported by the thing that the claims derive from I looked at it myself now part of it is that there two claims one has details and one is just a Ambiguously worded thing that looks like it could be trouble but you don't really know for sure so the one that's got details is not supported by any documents there's some kind of forgery floating around so if you heard the one that you know says under certain conditions a thing happened there's nothing like that in the diary there's nothing that said under this condition this happened or how often or what ages were involved none of that's in the diary there's just one little thing that any normal person would be very concerned about but it's a lot like the drinking bleach thing what she said directly looks really Troublesome but it almost couldn't have been that in other words the the most the most um provocative you know interpretation of what it meant is probably the least likely but if you want to believe that stuff you kind of go to it automatically now if you add it to the hair sniffing and the weird behavior that we see in public it does create an overall picture that says maybe we should know more about this but to say that it's sort of documented and it's writing and we can all read it nope I don't buy it I do buy that there's something there that raises your eyebrow all the way past the top of your head can we agree on that I think we can agree that if you read the part that is confirmed to be real you're going to have some questions but I think there's probably more than one way to explain what that is very much like the if you didn't know that mail in votes sometimes you walk into the office and drop it in the Box it's just that your imagination getting back to my prior Point your imagination fails when you read the diary you say to yourself I'm pretty sure this could only mean one thing and it's really really bad but could it can can you imagine that if you heard the real story behind it it would sound different I'm not saying it would I'm saying can you imagine it because I think we need a little better standard for blaming innocent people of crimes especially bad ones uh it shouldn't be that you strongly suspect it I I think we need to go a little bit better than that but I'm not saying it's false I'm just saying a little better evidence would be better all right uh speaking of Biden's kids Hunter Biden's going in for his felony gun charges you know when this whole felony gun charge thing first came up um my first instinct is that this is not the thing that I want my uh legal system to be chasing because I like the Second Amendment right and I know that the law particular law said he was he lied on his application and he was an addict and so he shouldn't get a gun and I understand understand the technical part of the law but as a second amendment supporter I just had some problems with the fact that of all the things in the world you would go after him for wanting to own a gun and probably he's in the category of people who are safer with one I mean maybe the people around him are less safe I suppose but I've completely changed my mind on this because the lawfare case because I'm fairly certain that Joe Biden would behind the lawfare against Trump I think his family is in play sorry yeah yeah if if Hitler were doing Hitler things and you had a chance to take out his kids you'd do it you'd do it and uh Biden is doing Hitler things so when you're law faring the other candidate trying to put him in jail and maybe trying to kill him if uh the legal system comes for your kid um it's War it's War so I would say my empathy for Hunter has disappeared and I'm not proud of it I'm not proud of it because it takes me off principle yeah so anyway I'm not even going to comment on what I'm seeing in the comments all right uh you should know it's fake his fake historian season we're in fake poll fake news fake historian fake uh justice system territory as we approach the election but the one I always look forward to is the fake his historians so the bad guys have these historians who will say absolutely anything and they'll act like they're experts because they're historians here's what we know today history is all fake history is fake we know that because we're watching fake history being written in real time during our lifetime what are the chances that just started we've always known that the winners write the history yeah there's nothing about our history that's accurate the facts maybe some of the big facts about what war happened and you know who died and who was the king but all the narrative the stuff about why anything happened that's all fake how would you like your job to be an historian and you have to pretend the history is real that's a weird job so if there's anybody you should not trust in this world is someone who thinks history is real because they might also think the news is real today I because they live in a world in which they have to believe that that fiction is real because their job is to tell you that it is hey that fiction about history that's totally real listen to me I'm an expert on it so uh one of these uh historians Michael besos he's famous for coming out with that those grinning things that are bad for Trump yeah have you seen the face where they're a little bit too happy about the things coming out of their mouth I don't I don't even know how to describe that face but they're so happy it looks like they're having some kind of physical dopamine you know overdose while they talk about how bad Trump could be or is or was this it's like oh he's going to become stealer democracy I mean you almost think they're tubing below the camera angle because they're just way too happy about what they're saying bad about Trump and it's like creepy uncanny valley stuff it's like oh what's wrong with you anyway BOS is the top of that list and he says uh he warns that Trump's second term could lead to dictatorship and Anarchy the choice is actually pretty clear we've got a con Ed felon he a historian and he told you that Trump is a convicted felon and he left out the fact that it was complete lawfare and that nobody but Trump would have ever been convicted of it or even indicted he's a historian who proved to you while you were watching he could not interpret correctly The Narrative of our current time but his job is to tell you the narrative of all the prior times which we all know at this point is fake news now could there be a more ridiculous character I can't imagine a more useless and worthless human being than somebody who studies history like it was real knowing it isn't and then gives you pronouncements about how because of the felony which is fake uh that means that Trump will turn into a dictator and Anarchy even though we already observed him not doing that that's the weakest take of all takes meanwhile Steve Bannon is suffer hearing on the six so three days from now to decide whether or not he's going to be remed to prison now I don't know what that decision involves wasn't he found guilty so I don't I don't know exactly what they're going to be talking about is there some appeal that I don't know about anyway um let's uh let's game this out let's say Steve bennon goes to jail is that good for Democrats or bad or bad for Democrats it's bad for Steve Bon if he goes to jail but my guess is that Trump is going to raise more money and it's going to make more people vote for Trump because it's going to look to people like yet another example of lawfare and whatever you thought happened to Trump if you wondered if it might be coming for you you're going to say to yourself I don't know the details of this case I'm not sure what that Peter Navaro situation was I don't know what the Steve Bannon situation was but it all sounds like they're going after Trump supporters for details you know like technicalities now you could argue whether they are but it would feel like that to the Casual news Watcher so I would think that if Steve Bannon Goes to Jail it's going to be a boost for Trump I don't want him to go to jail but I feel like that's the way it would go at this point we're also in as I said not just the fake historian season but also in the fake news season even Faker than usual because it's election season and and the hill has a story with a headline why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy do you need to read that is that an article you want to click on and say huh let's dig into this a little bit why why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy does anybody have a question about why people are negative about the economy I'm pretty sure anybody who ever bought anything in the last year anything you know what's wrong with the economy anybody who is white and tried to get a job recently you sure know what's wrong with the economy yeah no it's not really a mystery I'm sorry the hill publication I don't really need to read your article about why Americans are feeling so negative about the economy and let me suggest that the tone of the title of the article why are Americans feeling so negative about the economy suggests that whatever this article I didn't read says is going to be a steaming pile of about how everything is great and I don't know what's wrong with you just because you can't afford why are you not seeing clearly that everything's terrific so fake news season you don't have to read that article it's also fake polling season I told you and you'll you'll be able to see it yourself that there need to be a bunch of fake polls uh to balance out the real ones if things aren't going your way because if you plan to cheat or even if you just want to keep your supporters you know incentivized and feeling like they can win you do some fake polls to to balance things out now I don't know exactly which ones will be fake and which aren't but it's a guarantee that there will be fake ones and when I say fake all they do is they have to twe all they need to do is tweak a few variables in how they ask the questions and they can get any result they want so here's one about half of Americans This is according to a poll ABC News ipsos poll would you trust a uh corporate news entity like ABC to be associated with a a poll during election season that was accurate or would it be your expectation that this is really likely to be the kind of poll that would be fate because they would they want the public to think that the felony conviction is causing people to be less inclined to vote for Trump to make it safe for other people to say oh lots of people are changing their mind because of the felony I guess I could do that too so the point of the polling is to tell you what normal people are thinking even if they're not so that you thinking you're a normal person too can maybe be a little more likely to be persuaded to be on the same side with the normal people so let's see what the normal people said about half of Americans believe uh Trump should end his campaign after the guilty verdict half of Americans think he should end his campaign because the guilty verdict does that sound like a legitimate poll before I even tell you the answer I mean you didn't even know need to know what the answer was does that sound legitimate let see let let me tell you what's wrong with it if if it wasn't jumping out at you here's what's wrong with it this is this is a poll in which they ask you to compare Trump to Trump did you get that it's a poll about the election in which you asked to compare Trump to himself so you're comparing Trump not convicted to a trump convicted is that what you're going to vote for when you go to the election or you mail in your ballot are you going to say huh who do I vote for Trump who wasn't convicted or Trump who was convicted no that's not your choice that's not your choice the choice is only and the only one that matters Trump versus Biden right that's the only one that matters and if you ask a different question so that you can get you know an answer that sounds more like what you want to hear that's an influence poll that's not about information all right at the same time the in the article on this uh it says that Trump's approval level stayed the same so could it be true that half of Americans think he should drop out of the race at the same time that his approval levels stay the same if his approval levels had changed you maybe that would be telling you something all right so here's what I think I think it it might be entirely true that half of Americans think he should end his campaign but do you know what half of Americans also think probably half of Americans believe that this should not be a contest between Biden and Trump wouldn't you agree probably half of the country if you gave them the choice they'd say you know we do love Trump versus Biden but all things considered like if we could just start with a blank slate we'd go in with a you know 40 something De.

Santis 40y old whatever whatever age he is and uh we'd you know get more years of young people and we'd wouldn't have the provocations and all the you know all the worry and everything so it seems to me this is a clearly uh a poll that's designed to drive opinions as opposed to tell you what opinions are Morin Dow who's a famous uh Trump non-lover for the New York Times uh reports that her sister who interest ly as a republican um decided that she would vote for Trump because of the felony conviction it's her own sister so one of the famous anti- trumpers is to her credit she's reporting it so you know you have to give her credit for transparency uh and but but the sister's reason is the interesting thing it wasn't just that it was unfair and people are saying yeah the system's unfair you know we're going to have to correct it by electing trump it went deeper and here's what I warned you about um she was worried that there's nobody that would protect her so Morino Dow's sister is a Republican and when she watched the top Republican get lawed she said who would protect me you know my father's dad who would protect me if I I got lawed and so she realized that she's living in an environment that's too unsafe as a Republican and uh that she had to vote for the one person who might be able to protect her and that's that's Trump now that is important it's one person so we don't know if that's a generalized feeling but it is what I predicted and what I predicted was empathy that people would see Trump as them elves for the first time when Trump is in you know the golden Towers I don't say to myself oh he's just like me you know when he's doing trumpy things like rallies and things I don't think doesn't feel just like me but when he gets accused of something that's sketchy and then the system closes in on him that is me because I live in the same system that system is surrounding me touches me every moment I walk and live and breathe same system if a guy him I I feel it personally now I'm a public figure so maybe I'm at more risk than the average person but if somebody who's just a voter an ordinary Republican is going to say that I feel threatened because Trump got lawed that's what I predicted I predicted empathy you see remember empathy is not just your empathy for the other person there's always a little bit of it which is I'm glad it's not me like that's that's connected to empathy I'm glad it's not me so I think people feel this one personally I did yeah that the the conviction of trump didn't feel like a political outcome to me it wasn't just because I'm supporting you for president it felt personal like I I felt I was being handcuffed I mean I can't explain it but did anybody have the same experience that you you just put yourself in the scene and you saw yourself unfairly convicted and lawed because we've all been I think most of us have had the experience where the system was against them unfairly it could have been anything could have been your school administrators you know your job but everybody's felt the system being against them and then we watched it happen to Trump anyway um here's the other way they use the fake polls I think this was maybe in some publication they said that Trump has a 1.8% lead based on 173 polls so he's up 1.8% based on the average of 173 polls how many of those polls are credible well during fake polling season you don't want Trump to look like he's up five because that would be too big to rig so you put a bunch of fake ones in the mix and then all the people who are trying to be reasonable but of course they're making mistake they say well the reasonable thing would be to take the average no no the reasonable thing would be to take the average if you knew that they all did a similarly credible job of doing their work but you don't you don't average the fake polls with the real ones that's what they did because I'm sure that some percentage of these are legit legitimately faked right in other words the people who did them knew what they were doing when they did them you don't average fake poles and real ones that that's nothing that that's trying to hide the ball that's what that is meanwhile Trump is on Tik Tok as you know but here's a surprise uh somebody named Tara paulmy I don't know what her role is but she seems to know some stuff um she said that the pro Trump content is 10 to 12 times more popular than Pro Biden stuff on Tik Tok and she says two Tik Tok officials told her that um that since November there's been two times more prot Trump content than Biden uh I don't know how that Maxes with matches with the 10 times more but okay and according to an internal Tik toac analysis uh Trump content beat Biden content by 10 to1 in likes and 12 to1 in views does that sound real do you believe that Tik Tock is pushing hard for Trump here's one way to explain it and I don't know if this is enough Biden is not memeable but Trump is super me memeable like the Trump memes are funny and they're interesting have you seen the one where Trump is uh is riding the back of a giant golden eagle and and the golden eagle picks up Biden from the water like a fish and and Trump is like yeah have you seen that one it is terrific it's just terrific and even if it weren't an election you'd laugh at it because it's so well done so I just don't know that the the left can meme you know we've been saying that for years I I think the quality of the meme has got to have a big impact on who views it and likes it so I would think that because Trump Trump is the most meable character in the history of characters and Biden is the least meable character in the history of politicians at least uh you would expect more Trump action but that there's so much even in a um what you would imagine would be a more left-leaning um vehicle is weird it does suggest that China maybe is not putting their finger on the scales or do you imagine that China is putting their finger on the scales of Tik Tock because they want Trump to win can you can you think of a reason why China would want Trump to win think of a reason for that I've got one why would they want Trump to win now if you're a trump supporter you're going to immediately go to oh because they can negotiate with him right I don't know maybe allow me to suggest another possibility if China is watching the news in America like everybody else you know they must have people who are you know good at English and watching the news and summarizing it for the leaders that's I'm sure that's happening in some form um they would be watching the United States grappling with the most controversial character of all time and it might look like the election of Trump would tear the country apart so it's entirely possible that from China's perspective if they believe MSNBC and they believe CNN um at least half of CNN they might think that the worst thing that could happen to America is for Trump to be reelected because it'll tear the country apart they might be right but if you go with the theory that China could make um Tik Tock put their finger on any algorithm and any content they wanted if you think that there is really control there and if you think they exercised it the only reason you would exercise it 10 to1 in favor of trump which doesn't sound real to me I mean just doesn't sound real uh unless it's thumb on the scale situation um maybe they think he's bad for America maybe don't know here's my mini theme for today Democrats have an idiot problem in leadership I'm going to give you several examples of idiots in the leadership of Democrats you know Larry Fink the CEO of Black Rock they were really big on ESG and then he said um ESG is really embarrassing us we better pull back because all the Dei thing completely exploded and embarrassed them now he's saying that you need like clean uh energy that isn't intermittent because we're going to need so much for our data centers do you know what that means pronuclear and maybe get your finger off of all the uh things that would stop energy from being produced I think I think Larry fank is who I call a smart idiot if he and I did an IQ test I think he'd beat me you know I think you probably could get into a better school than I could have at the time Etc so I'm not saying his IQ wasn't high but with this ESG stuff we observe him acting like an idiot like he maybe he didn't understand the implications of what would happen if he made ESG his his Center piece of his thing but it looks like it all blew up in his face and I think I could have told them I think I could have told him exactly where that would end up so he's a smart idiot and I think what causes that is obviously not the smart part because the smart part seems on T you know it seems fine there there's something about the the gas lighting and the brainwashing that the Democrats get that will make even the smartest person turn into an idiot but then they they have real idiots too like Maxine Waters um so she's saying that domest Trump's supporters are quote domestic terrorists and she wonders if they're preparing a civil war against us so she said that again recently now you could say to yourself well she doesn't believe those things she's just saying them for political purposes but if she is she's the worst leader ever cuz it's just a terrible thing for a leader to be saying so I'd say she's a leader and she's an idiot but unlike Larry Frink who might have a high IQ there's no indication she's anything but dumb I watched a uh conversation uh online between Megan Kelly uh and David Pacman now David Pacman is a prominent uh pundit podcaster on the left and what I learned was that when somebody on the left talks to a well-informed person on the right it always goes the same way the person on the left realizes that they haven't been getting correct news the entire time so Megan Kelly fact checked him so hard I think he left his jock strap a block back uh I mean he he got banged down hard and when I was done with it I said to myself huh David Pacman does not look nearly as smart as Megan Kelly like they don't look like they're even on the same level really and but David Pacman's a prominent voice on the left and compared to Megan Kelly came off as an idiot but he would be you know a normal person he has normal IQ but I think he too well based based on what I saw he didn't know enough about what was true so his opinions were all ridiculous because he didn't know what the facts were and when Megan Kelly sort of informed in what was true it you cause like some kind of weird cognitive dissonance in them so you have to watch that um then so that's more idiots um let's see uh David Sachs on the X profile points out that the Hillary campaign operative who cooked the books to hide payments for the steel dossier became the SEC chairman then the Biden campaign operative who orchestrated the 51 spies who lied about hunters um crimes on the laptop I guess became Secretary of State and then David saak says Dems know how to reward election interference now I'm going to I'm going to add this to my theme of Democrats having idiots for leaders in this case they have criminals as Leaders because they were actually promoted for doing things what maybe weren't technically illegal but look like they should have been um how smart is it to promote the people who get caught the reason that we're talking about these two people who got uh rewarded is because we know what they did I'm going to go with Trump I prefer people who don't get caught I think the smart people can do bad things and not get caught but the Democrats have people who aren't smart enough to get away with it because they all got caught but they got rewarded anyway so I guess I should ask who's the smart one here is it me or them they got promoted so maybe they're the Smart Ones in this case then we have the uh Biden dementia tapes still trying to get those apparently they've been locked in a skiff so that somebody can go listen to them but they can't let you listen to it that's right so then when uh let's say some Republican listens to it and comes back and says oh it was really terrible he was in bad shape all they have to do is send down Adam shiff to say no he's not he's fine I listen to the same thing so they're gonna skiff shiff us the play is to skiff shiff the skiff shift as you put it in the skiff this highly secure place where nobody can take a picture picture of it or take a copy they can only experience it inside that room so all they have to do is send their best Liars into the room and they'll come out and say no it was fine I listened to it too it's fine the the play here is so obvious it it's just so obvious that it's a ski shift play yeah it's just a standard ski shift well my questions have been answered about the Soros organization or at least why Alex Soros is going along with his dad's ideas that are terrible and destroying the world there's a clip of him at the wef um just talking about a topic and uh I'll just give you one quote to show you that what we learn from watching him talk in public he seems to be an idiot he just actually seems to be dumb and maybe really dumb based on the the clip so he's talking to the public one man Donald Trump literally came in and just took that uh took that uh took that all away um you know so um you know um you know you know um you took that um um way you took that checks and balances that you know we had these Customs the these uh um well you know the um the um the um the um the uh the customs and um um he came in like Donald Trump he um then he like um you took it all away from us now I might be exaggerating a little bit on there but you have to listen to it if you listen to him talking you will immediately understand why nobody asks him for interviews there's no way he's going to say yes to an interview because he's incompetent talking in public in fact you would be hard pressed to find anybody who can't talk in public as much as he can't talk in public he's really really bad at it so he probably just says no because he can't talk in public I guess in that case he had to try but it was a just a train wreck yeah wow and he must be under the Trump is Hitler train because you know he thinks he thinks uh not only is Trump a stealing your democracy but he's stealing your Unwritten Customs that's right Trump stole your Unwritten rules that's what he said in public wow um also Constantine kissen uh did a great thing for the world that didn't work out at all you know how I've been saying that we need to have uh like legitimate debates on topics where you've got plenty of time but you've also got a strong host a moderator who can really keep you in line and don't do it in like this political way where you let the politicians lie you know just get some experts some people will really know what they're talking about put them together put a strong moderator in the middle Boom everybody gets better informed and maybe you can work something out that's what I thought until yesterday and then I watched Constantine kissen do again I'll say you know a great thing for the public which is he tried to pull it pull off the very thing we think we wanted and the topic was Gaza and what should have Israel done and what should they do now I guess and and he had two sides and here's the model that I held in my head until that moment when two two parties disagree on something you know they they might want different things you know some wants this the other wants that usually unless the parties are you know just totally bad people you can usually find a compromise you could find some way to you know find a a negotiated settlement that everybody's not perfectly happy with but happy enough and so we imagine that that model which works all the time in business right in business you're always negotiating and usually you can work stuff out so why can't they well I found out why and I'm going to tell you a a reframe here that will explain a lot going forward it's one I hadn't noticed before it goes like this the people who were on the two sides of the Gaza debate did not disagree on what should be done per se although that's what it looked like on the surface they disagreed on reality they disagreed on reality and they weren't even close and let me tell you you can't negotiate a middle ground between two different versions of reality you can't get there from here so and thought that it could ever be negotiated while the two are living in completely different realities of how we got here and who's the bad guy and who's the good guy you can't you can't negotiate that it's completely absurd I actually used to think and and by the way this is something that one of the debate people said uh in effect the the pro Palestinian um arguers said the Palestinians have a set of um demands that are somewhat reasonable now this would be their View and if you were to um make some action toward addressing their demands you could stop the terrorism so you could stop another October 7th by simply addressing the legitimate concerns of the Palestinians and once they saw that things are moving in the right direction the reason for terrorism would go away and they say oh this is working so we'll just keep doing this peaceful negotiating because you know we got a few things we'll get some more that can't work if you're living in different realities that only works if you're in the same reality and you you want different things and then you have something you can work with because you don't want the same things the same things that are limited resources you can't make a deal if you want if everybody wants the thing that there's only one of you can't can't solve that but in a normal situation uh you want work I want money we can make a deal because we don't want the same thing and we live in the same reality the reality is you have a job I have skills you have money same reality you can always make that work but here are some of the things I heard and and let me say let me tell you who I sided with both sides are completely up right so there's a pro-israel side everything they're doing is what you have to do in October 7th and then the other side was well maybe if you were nicer to the Palestinians you wouldn't be in this situation both crazy there there are two realities that I don't recognize at all so let me let me give you an example uh the pro-israel guy argued that uh all over the world there are examples of locals who got displaced and should have the right of return like the Palestinians but his point is why are you only looking at Israel like the one place where the people who got kicked out should have the right to come back when all over the world there are people who have been kicked out of all kinds of places and then nobody's saying right to return for them so why are you saying it for Israel does that sound like a good argument to you what do all of the other places have to do with this nothing nothing it's it's not even on point uh well what do you think of Israel and the Palestinians should do well there's this totally other situation no that's just another situation to to imagine that that's like a leading point or you know you're winning your argument if you take that out that's that's insane let me tell you the only model that makes any sense whatsoever Whoever has the power to hold land holds it until somebody else has more power and then they take it away from you that's all it is to imagine that there's some narrative that we should all accept on either side or anything in the middle is really absurd you can pick your narrative if you want but it doesn't make any difference it's just power and and now let me ask you this imagine you're a Palestinian and by the way one of the participants what was her name uh forgot to write it down but uh Constantine later called her Dei Barbie apparently things didn't go well toward the end of the debate he called her Dei Barbie after the fact they were arguing on on X but that's pretty gutsy to to do that anyway one of the points she made is she said that uh there are Palestinians I don't know if this is literally true or it just sounds good who still have the key to the door where they used to live in Israel and now there's somebody else living there and they weren't compensated now what do you do about them and it's worse it wasn't even that Israel you know conquered the land and took it over somebody else gave them their house so just imagine you're a Palestinian and you wake up one day it's like hey uh the UN decided that uh that Israel owns this land uh but do they own my house well no but things are going to get really tough when they start moving in what do you mean well I I mean legally you could keep your house but things might get a little tense once you're outnumbered and next thing you know if you're a Palestinian it looks like and and I'm saying this is how it would feel I I try to put myself in the situation and say how would I feel here's what it feels like the UN gave your house to your enemies and never talk to you about it wait a minute the UN gave my house to my enemy and I wasn't I wasn't consulted now you could go back and say yes but before that you know the Jews lived there forever and then the pal you know the Arabs kicked them out and so really it's the Jews coming home and you know you could argue with forever but here's one of the things that Constantine helpfully tried to inject because both sides wanted to talk about the past you know the the past grievances now your instinct says if you're locked in the past you'll never you'll never make progress so Constantine is trying to say all right all right you know we could talk about the past but what should we do today like what are you going to do like what what should Israel have done differently and it turns out that neither side was willing to forget the past because they say you're you're not really going to understand the present without the past you know separating them does doesn't make sense but when they say the past what they mean is their Narrative of the past which is fiction both the narratives are fiction there's not a true one and a fake one you knew that right in this kind of stuff there's no real one there's always just the two narratives you know and each will leave out the inconvenient things for the other ones so I'm uh just just to clarify uh I'm pro Israel being a country and they're our Ally and I'm glad that we're supporting them Etc um but there's no truth like if you think any of it has to do with truth I think you're lost it's power the Israelis have the power to hold the country they're going to build it it'll you know they're doing lots of good things um and that's the end of the story I could have an opinion about it but it wouldn't change the fact that they have the power to hold it that's kind of the whole story but I don't believe uh in the if you give the Palestinians what they're asking for everything will be good because anybody who's Pro Palestinian likes to do the thing where they ignore the we want to kill every Jew and take all your all your land which they would say used to be their land so you can't really negotiate If part of the negotiators want you dead and that's their final offer so to imagine this is negotiatable is just kind of crazy kind of crazy so I'm going to give uh Constantine big props for holding the event I think uh pbd did a similar thing with Chris Cuomo and comic Dave Smith and that certainly produced some good entertainment and uh I'd like to see more of it but I would say that there's no point in having a debate where if you're starting from different realities and that's not going to change so so uh meanwhile there's some confusion over this so-called ceasefire peace plan road map thing that Biden says is Israel's idea but Israel says no we just tweaked a few things and then somebody else says um somebody else says uh what they say I've confused two of things here oh it's strange that they say it's an isra proposal and at the same time they say Israel needs to agree to it so I guess the Biden Administration has said oh yeah this is Israel's idea as soon as they agree to it wait if it's their idea didn't they start with agreeing with their own idea or did they have an idea they didn't agree with and they've got to be convinced to agree with their own idea or is it possible that Biden is been lying to us the entire time I'm going to go with lying to us the entire time um and I like the uh getting back to Constantine's uh debate here one of the guys on the uh pro-israel side said that all Hamas has to do is stop fighting and losing Wars and uh everything will be fine I used to believe that too I used to believe that if just the Palestinians would just stop losing War mors they could negotiate with the rest of the world and and get what they wanted I don't think there's any chance of that because there's a hardcore faction that will never stop doing it and it doesn't matter if half of them want peace if the other half doesn't there's nothing you can do with that no so there it seems that you know there's enough people who want to destroy all of Israel that there's nothing you can do it's just power they they will keep coming and Israel will keep beating them back as long as they can anyway then it looked like uh one of the things that Constantine was complaining about is that uh the woman who is the with woman he called the Dei Barbie uh after the event not during the event but um that she wouldn't answer a question but I didn't see that exactly I know what he was talking about but that she wouldn't ask answer the question of what Israel should have done or should do and it sounded like she was just talking about the past but she did kind of meander back to it and here was her answer that Israel should be more like the United States more of a Melting Pot and although people acknowledge that there already you know Islamic people living within Israel happily uh and there are no Jewish people living in Gaza happily uh but here's the thing um oh I had some good point I was going to make there that I just lost while I was talking about the other stuff all right well I don't think that uh just stopping fighting is going to fix anything because that there seems to be some permanent uh difference in reality I guess that's the bottom line all right ladies and gentlemen that's all I've got for you on today's news thanks for joining I'm going to go uh talk to the locals people privately and uh I'm going to say goodbye to X and You.

Tube and Rumble uh and I'm going to stall a little bit and drink some coffee because I understand there's a delay in the transmission so the main show is over but I'm just stalling and having a sip of coffee all right locals people here I come locals only in see update stream is it working it is not working all right so we have a technical technical failure all right we have a technical failure the uh software won't allow me to um go private with just the locals people let me try one more time locals and supporters update stream yeah it doesn't seem to work what happens if I try to cancel the oops that didn't work yeah all right so I can't go private um but let me do this I'm going to I'm going to end the rumble Studio stream and see if I can keep up the other stream would that work all right uh locals I'm going to I'll open up another stream if if it doesn't continue I'm just going to close the main Rumble studio and I'll talk to you if I can all right it's not even ending all right we're back to uh we're back to the studio won't turn off all right so um we'll need to do some manual and of the the various streams I'll probably have to um delete the X stream because you can't end them when I get to this error the xtram will just stay live forever unless I delete it so if I delete it I lose all the uh monetization from it all right I'm just going to kill this and see what I can do e e e e e

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well as soon as everybody gets here and

I've got my notes we're going to have

the show of shows a show like you've

never seen

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[Music]

before good morning everybody and

welcome to the highlight of human

civilization it's called coffee with

Scott Adams and I don't think you've had

a better time in your whole life but if

you'd like to take this experience up to

levels that no human can even understand

with their tiny smooth brains all you

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Jugger flask a vessel of any kind fill

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unparallel pleasure of the dopamine of

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it's called the simultaneous sipping

happens about now

I hope everybody's

here so

good ladies and

Gentlemen let's talk about some of the

fake science before we get to the fake

news did anybody miss the Sip I'm trying

to time it so I stall just long enough

you all get in here all right well

there's a study that says the number of

college students diagnosed with PTSD has

more than

doubled do you believe

that I believe that the number diagnosed

is more than doubled do you think that

the number with PTSD has

doubled or do you think maybe it's just

because has a name here's a mental

experiment if I said to you tomorrow

there's a new condition it's a mental

condition in which you worry too much

about what other people will think about

you and it stops you from doing some

things and you'd say well that sounds

like something that has some other name

and I'd say no no has a new name has a

new name there's a new condition how

many people would be diagnosed with that

condition

tomorrow

Millions because as soon as you have a

new name for something suddenly you

think well I got a name for it

so see which side is this side's a

little light

yeah I think it has something to do with

the fact that it became a popular thing

that everybody had a name for and once

they had a name for it everybody had it

we got diagnosed but on top of that I do

think that uh the the Lesser physical

activity and you know maybe the ultr

processed foods and and uh just the

terror of living in the modern world it

might make it worse but I would think

that 60% of it is just because they gave

something a name that was a common

experience before had a name meaning

that people felt bad and traumatized for

a variety of reasons just didn't have a

name well the Wall Street Journal says

that AI might be slowing down and uh

couldn't it's possible it's it was

overrated now this Falls squarely into

the category of things I told you before

other people told you which is it seemed

to me logically that once you trained it

on everything you could find you know

all the good stuff you would run out of

things to make it smarter which is

what's happening they're running out of

new material to train it so it's as

smart as it's going to get from the

things it's already trained on so

instead they create what they call

synthetic training material which is

they have one AI I know hallucinate and

then the hallucinations became what

trains the other AI

now on paper I got to say that sounds

like a terrible

idea I don't even know how logically

that could work you know can can you

learn things from your own IM

imagination think about that as a human

if you wanted to like get good at

something could you just close your eyes

and imagine it in an artificial way

until you were good at it I don't know

that the machine can do that either I

mean they say it is but I got a question

about what is the upside potential of

that

method anyway so we got a few things

going on that could make AI overrated

number one the advances are slowing down

so each new version of it is not going

to be you know twice as good as the one

before it might be 5% better and even

decreasing after that because they don't

have anything new to train it on

and it could be that um it's a commodity

as well so so it takes a lot of money to

train the big ones but if all the big

ones get trained on the same material

I.E everything on the internet then

they're all going to end up being about

the same so maybe there's not that much

it might be a commodity it might be like

air so that there's nothing to pay for

it's like Well everybody's got a trained

AI you know you can get one for cheap so

it could be that some of the profit will

be taken out of it except for I suppose

Nvidia will do great

um and uh there's also a thought that it

will be useful for fewer things than we

thought who told you that

first me uh all the things here's the

problem when you imagine AI you

automatically and reflexively imagine

that it's smarter than people or that it

will be soon whereas I said how can it

be smarter than people if it's trained

on

people I don't think you can be smarter

than people if you're trained on people

and if you were to say something smarter

than people you know what would happen

people would reprogram you it's like I

don't recognize that as being true so

I'm I better get rid of that yeah it

really logically the way humans

operate I don't think they can build

something smarter than themselves at

least with the current technology there

there I'm allowing that there might be

some future development that allows that

to be true but if you're training it on

humans I don't know how it gets smarter

than humans I mean just my brain can't

really hold how that's a possibility it

could be smarter than an individual

human on an individual

skill and certainly things like math and

planning and chess you know the obvious

things that computers do it'll be better

than that but will it be better in let's

say interpreting what's

real which seems to be the most

important thing for us can it tell which

studies are a BS will I know who's

lying you know that's the important

stuff stuff that keeps you

alive anyway Mexico had a

vote uh the amuse account on X reminds

us that to vote in Mexico you have to

have a government issued

ID that's right to vote in Mexico you

need a government issued

ID but if you walk across the border

apparently you can vote in the United

States with nothing including

citizenship now if you get caught I

think your vote won't count but I'm not

so sure too many people are getting

caught so I don't know how that works um

just uh something to be aware of it

looks like the winner is Claudia Shin

bomb uh just the weirdest thing I never

expected that the next president of

Mexico would be a a Jewish woman I mean

she's a Mexican citizen but she has a

Jewish background there can't be a a ton

of that in

Mexico but let me tell you why what I

liked about her I saw I know nothing

about her except I've seen some pictures

and she's her Mentor was the current

president

uh but of all the things this is the

thing that stood out when I saw her

picture was work in the crowds she's she

she's wearing a

ponytail and and she's pulling it off

you know not not everyone can make a

ponytail work but she totally pulls off

a ponytail while she's while she's uh

you know doing her uh

campaigning I what do a lot of American

politicians do they ever wear ponytails

in any official capacity I feel like

I've seen a AOC in a ponytail when she

was casual maybe I don't I lik it she

pull she pulls off a

ponytail is it just me I'm always I'm

always impressed by anybody can simply

pull off the

look right because the reason that you

know big hair is popular is that we like

it better you you have to have just the

right look to pull off a ponytail and

she

does that's the least important thing in

politics but there it

is um here's story which you probably

thought was real news that maybe is fake

news so today I will disappoint my

Audience by telling you things you

thought were true that maybe are not so

true you may have seen a story as I did

this morning that there's a claim and

I'm going to tell you that you what's

wrong with the claim in a minute but the

claim is that there are 74,000 mail-in

ballots received with no record they

were mailed out and that would be more

than the margin of victory in Arizona

for in the 2020 election so that sounds

pretty does that sound pretty

convincing so this is a

fact right it's a fact and then I'm

going to tell you why you're

misinterpreting it but it's a fact that

you're supposed to know how many were

mailed out and then you're supposed to

keep record of how many were received

and don't you think it would be a

problem if your record of how many you

mailed out was way different than the

ones you received now if you received

way fewer than you mailed out totally

normal not everybody's mails in but if

you received substantially more coming

in than you ever sent out that would be

a huge signal for fraud would you

agree so would do you agree that there's

no other explanation for that okay are

you on the same page with

me that there can't be any official

explanation that would ever satisfy you

if that's true and it's true it's

confirmed to be

true so how do how do you interpret that

think in your mind what could be any

other explanation for why you get more

in than you ever mailed out in the first

place so therefore there was pretty

confirmed um bad behavior wouldn't you

say all right so here's what you're

going to learn

today that what you think is you

analyzing a situation is not what just

happened that's not what happened what

happened is you analyzed your own

ability to imagine and it failed you you

couldn't imagine a situation in which

that could be

okay despite the fact that everything

about it looks like it's not okay all

right now I'm going to tell you what the

official explanation was now I'm not

going to say that the official

explanation is correct I'm just going to

say that as soon as I heard it it

sounded

correct so it complete will all right

you ready there are two ways to do

mail-in

voting one way is they mail it to you

you get it in the mail you fill it out

and you mail it back if that was the

only way it happened then it would be

clear sign of fraud if more came back

than were ever mailed in but there are

two ways one is is it doesn't get mailed

to you you walk into a voting Center you

pick it up from a shelf or something you

fill it out and you drop it in a box

that would be called a mailin but nobody

mailed it to you you went to the place

where they were sitting in a big pile

took one off the pile filled it out and

dropped it in the Box sitting next to

it did you know

that now that's the claim from the

official people who were debunking it

now my point is not that the election

was or was not fair I would say it's

hard you know from my perspective to

know one way or the other

but the point is if you can't imagine

what the alternative was the problem is

in your head your your imagination is

not up to the

task here's another case like that I

believe that the um you're all familiar

with the fine people hoax about

Charlottesville and how something was

taken out of context and Democrats came

to believe something that never happened

and you know the drinking bleach hes

Democrats came to believe that Trump

said maybe you should drink bleach never

happened it looks like there might be a

version of that on the Republican side

and it's called Ashley Biden's

diary so I tried talking about this uh

yesterday with my audience and people

just flipped out and I oh I'm going to

stay away from this topic and then I saw

thought to myself no the flipping out is

the story so I'm going to make you flip

out I I challenged my audience because I

never talked about the story and I don't

want don't want to get into the details

but I'll just say that there's a thing

called Ashley Biden's diary which uh

some people say is fake and some people

say is real I think it's confirmed to be

real as far as I know but then there's a

claim that there's a specific entry in

there or entry

that would uh if true would be a

horrible situation that Joe Biden was

involved in I'm not even going to give

you any details I'll just tell you this

I said can somebody show me that I keep

hearing about it but I've never seen it

like can you show me the words in the

diary and I said I don't believe it

exists so somebody showed it to me and

then the following thing happened here

it is look right here and said I'm

looking at it I don't see what you said

it's right here okay I'm reading it I

see every word you're pointing to I

don't see what you're saying

now does that mean that it's not there

I'll tell you what I saw I saw something

that was ambiguous that could be

interpreted one of two ways one way is

president said you should drink

bleach the other way is that he

something ordinary happened that was

worded

poorly now I'm not going to defend

anything that anybody did so don't

interpret this as me defending Joe Biden

I'm telling you that the claims that I

read all the time on the internet are

not supported by the thing that the

claims derive from I looked at it myself

now part of it is that there two claims

one has

details and one is just a Ambiguously

worded thing that looks like it could be

trouble but you don't really know for

sure so the one that's got details is

not supported by any documents there's

some kind of forgery floating around so

if you heard the one that you know says

under certain conditions a thing

happened there's nothing like that in

the diary there's nothing that said

under this condition this happened or

how often or what ages were involved

none of that's in the diary there's just

one little thing

that any normal person would be very

concerned

about but it's a lot like the drinking

bleach thing what she said directly

looks really Troublesome but it almost

couldn't have been

that in other words the the most the

most um

provocative you know interpretation of

what it meant is probably the least

likely but if you want to believe that

stuff you kind of go to it automatically

now if you add it to the hair sniffing

and the weird behavior that we see in

public it does create an overall picture

that says maybe we should know more

about this but to say that it's sort of

documented and it's writing and we can

all read it nope I don't buy it I do buy

that there's something there that raises

your eyebrow all the way past the top of

your head can we agree on that I think

we can agree that if you read the part

that is confirmed to be real

you're going to have some questions but

I think there's probably more than one

way to explain what that is very much

like the if you didn't know that mail in

votes sometimes you walk into the office

and drop it in the Box it's just that

your

imagination getting back to my prior

Point your imagination fails when you

read the diary you say to yourself I'm

pretty sure this could only mean one

thing and it's really really

bad but could it can can you imagine

that if you heard the real story behind

it it would sound different I'm not

saying it would I'm saying can you

imagine it because I think we need a

little better standard for blaming

innocent people of crimes especially bad

ones uh it shouldn't be that you

strongly suspect it I I think we need to

go a little bit better than that but I'm

not saying it's false I'm just saying a

little better evidence would be better

all right

uh speaking of Biden's kids Hunter

Biden's going in for his felony gun

charges you know when this whole felony

gun charge thing first came up um my

first instinct is that this is not the

thing that I want my uh legal system to

be chasing because I like the Second

Amendment right and I know that the law

particular law said he was he lied on

his application and he was an addict and

so he shouldn't get a gun and I

understand understand the technical part

of the law but as a second amendment

supporter I just had some problems with

the fact that of all the things in the

world you would go after him for wanting

to own a gun and probably he's in the

category of people who are safer with

one I mean maybe the people around him

are less safe I suppose

but I've completely changed my mind on

this because the lawfare case because

I'm fairly certain that Joe Biden would

behind the lawfare against Trump I think

his family is in play sorry yeah yeah if

if Hitler were doing Hitler things and

you had a chance to take out his kids

you'd do

it you'd do it and uh Biden is doing

Hitler things so when you're law faring

the other candidate trying to put him in

jail and maybe trying to kill him if uh

the legal system comes for your kid um

it's War it's War so I would say my

empathy for Hunter has

disappeared and I'm not proud of it I'm

not proud of it because it takes me off

principle

yeah so anyway I'm not even going to

comment on what I'm seeing in the

comments all right uh you should know

it's fake his fake historian

season we're in fake poll fake news fake

historian fake uh justice system

territory as we approach the election

but the one I always look forward to is

the fake his

historians so the bad guys have these

historians who will say absolutely

anything and they'll act like they're

experts because they're

historians here's what we know

today history is all

fake history is fake we know that

because we're watching fake history

being written in real time during our

lifetime what are the chances that just

started we've always known that the

winners write the history yeah there's

nothing about our history that's

accurate the facts maybe some of the big

facts about what war happened and you

know who died and who was the king but

all the narrative the stuff about why

anything happened that's all fake how

would you like your job to be an

historian and you have to pretend the

history is

real that's a weird job so if there's

anybody you should not trust in this

world is someone who thinks history is

real because they might also think the

news is real today I because they live

in a world in which they have to believe

that that fiction is real because their

job is to tell you that it is hey that

fiction about history that's totally

real listen to me I'm an expert on

it so uh one of these uh historians

Michael besos he's famous for coming out

with that

those grinning things that are bad for

Trump yeah have you seen the face where

they're a little bit too happy about the

things coming out of their

mouth I don't I don't even know how to

describe that face but they're so happy

it looks like they're having some kind

of physical

dopamine you know

overdose while they talk about how bad

Trump could be or is or was this it's

like oh he's going to become stealer

democracy I mean you almost think

they're tubing below the camera angle

because they're just way too happy about

what they're saying bad about Trump and

it's like

creepy uncanny valley stuff it's like oh

what's wrong with you anyway BOS is the

top of that list and he says uh he warns

that Trump's second term could lead to

dictatorship and Anarchy the choice is

actually pretty clear we've got a con Ed

felon he a

historian and he told you that Trump is

a convicted

felon and he left out the fact that it

was complete lawfare and that

nobody but Trump would have ever been

convicted of it or even

indicted he's a

historian who proved to you while you

were watching he could not interpret

correctly The Narrative of our current

time but his job is to tell you the

narrative of all the prior

times which we all know at this point is

fake news now could there be a more

ridiculous character I can't imagine a

more useless and worthless human being

than somebody who studies history like

it was real knowing it isn't and then

gives you pronouncements about how

because of the felony which is fake

uh that means that Trump will turn into

a dictator and Anarchy even though we

already observed him not doing

that that's the weakest take of all

takes meanwhile Steve Bannon is suffer

hearing on the six so three days from

now to decide whether or not he's going

to be remed to prison now I don't know

what that decision involves wasn't he

found guilty

so I don't I don't know exactly what

they're going to be talking about is

there some appeal that I don't know

about anyway

um let's uh let's game this out let's

say Steve bennon goes to jail is that

good for Democrats or bad or bad for

Democrats it's bad for Steve Bon if he

goes to

jail

but my guess is that Trump is going to

raise more

money and it's going to make more people

vote for Trump because it's going to

look to people like yet another example

of lawfare and whatever you thought

happened to Trump if you wondered if it

might be coming for

you you're going to say to yourself I

don't know the details of this case I'm

not sure what that Peter Navaro

situation was I don't know what the

Steve Bannon situation was but it all

sounds like they're going after Trump

supporters for details

you know like technicalities now you

could argue whether they are but it

would feel like that to the Casual news

Watcher so I would think that if Steve

Bannon Goes to Jail it's going to be a

boost for Trump I don't want him to go

to jail but I feel like that's the way

it would go at this

point we're also in as I said not just

the fake historian season but also in

the fake news season even Faker than

usual because it's election season and

and the hill has a story with a headline

why are Americans feeling so negative

about the

economy do you need to read that is that

an article you want to click on and say

huh let's dig into this a little bit why

why are Americans feeling so negative

about the

economy does anybody have a question

about why people are negative about the

economy I'm pretty sure anybody who ever

bought

anything in the last year anything

you know what's wrong with the

economy anybody who is white and tried

to get a job recently you sure know

what's wrong with the economy yeah no

it's not really a mystery I'm sorry the

hill publication I don't really need to

read your article about why Americans

are feeling so negative about the

economy and let me suggest that the tone

of the title of the article why are

Americans feeling so negative about the

economy suggests that whatever this

article I didn't read says is going to

be a steaming pile of about how

everything is great and I don't know

what's wrong with you just because you

can't afford why are you not seeing

clearly that everything's

terrific so fake news season you don't

have to read that

article it's also fake polling season I

told you and you'll you'll be able to

see it yourself that there need to be a

bunch of fake polls uh to balance out

the real ones if things aren't going

your way because if you plan to cheat or

even if you just want to keep your

supporters you know incentivized and

feeling like they can win you do some

fake polls to to balance things out now

I don't know exactly which ones will be

fake and which aren't but it's a

guarantee that there will be fake ones

and when I say fake all they do is they

have to twe all they need to do is tweak

a few variables in how they ask the

questions and they can get any result

they want so here's one about half of

Americans This is according to a poll

ABC News ipsos

poll would you trust a uh corporate news

entity like

ABC to be associated with a a poll

during election season that was

accurate or would it be your expectation

that this is really likely to be the

kind of poll that would be

fate because they would they want the

public to think that the felony

conviction is causing people to be less

inclined to vote for Trump to make it

safe for other people to say oh lots of

people are changing their mind because

of the felony I guess I could do that

too so the point of the polling is to

tell you what normal people are thinking

even if they're not so that you thinking

you're a normal person too can maybe be

a little more likely to be persuaded

to be on the same side with the normal

people so let's see what the normal

people

said about half of Americans believe uh

Trump should end his campaign after the

guilty

verdict half of Americans think he

should end his campaign because the

guilty verdict does that sound like a

legitimate poll before I even tell you

the answer I mean you didn't even know

need to know what the answer was does

that sound legitimate

let see let let me tell you what's wrong

with it if if it wasn't jumping out at

you here's what's wrong with it this is

this is a poll in which they ask you to

compare Trump to

Trump did you get that it's a poll about

the election in which you asked to

compare Trump to

himself so you're comparing Trump not

convicted to a trump

convicted is that what you're going to

vote for when you go to the election

or you mail in your ballot are you going

to say huh who do I vote for Trump who

wasn't convicted or Trump who was

convicted no that's not your

choice that's not your choice the choice

is only and the only one that

matters Trump versus

Biden right that's the only one that

matters and if you ask a different

question so that you can get you know an

answer that sounds more like what you

want to hear that's an influence poll

that's not about information all

right at the same time the in the

article on this uh it says that Trump's

approval level stayed the same so could

it be true that half of Americans think

he should drop out of the race at the

same time that his approval levels stay

the

same if his approval levels had changed

you maybe that would be telling you

something all right so here's what I

think I think it it might be entirely

true that half of Americans think he

should end his campaign but do you know

what half of Americans also think

probably half of Americans believe that

this should not be a contest between

Biden and

Trump wouldn't you agree probably half

of the country if you gave them the

choice they'd say you know we do love

Trump versus Biden but all things

considered like if we could just start

with a blank slate we'd go in with a you

know 40 something DeSantis 40y old

whatever whatever age he is and uh we'd

you know get more years of young people

and we'd wouldn't have the provocations

and all the you know all the worry and

everything so it seems to me this is a

clearly uh a poll that's designed to

drive opinions as opposed to tell you

what opinions

are Morin Dow who's a famous uh Trump

non-lover for the New York Times uh

reports that her sister who interest ly

as a

republican um decided that she would

vote for

Trump because of the felony

conviction it's her own

sister so one of the famous anti-

trumpers is to her credit she's

reporting it so you know you have to

give her credit for

transparency uh and but but the sister's

reason is the interesting thing it

wasn't just that it was unfair and

people are saying yeah the system's

unfair you know we're going to have to

correct it by electing trump it went

deeper and here's what I warned you

about um she was worried that there's

nobody that would protect

her so Morino Dow's sister is a

Republican and when she watched the top

Republican get lawed she said who would

protect me you know my father's dad who

would protect me if I I got

lawed and so she realized that she's

living in an environment that's too

unsafe as a

Republican and uh that she had to vote

for the one person who might be able to

protect her and that's that's

Trump now that is important it's one

person so we don't know if that's a

generalized feeling but it is what I

predicted and what I predicted was

empathy that people would see Trump as

them elves for the first time when Trump

is in you know the golden Towers I don't

say to myself oh he's just like me you

know when he's doing trumpy things like

rallies and things I don't think doesn't

feel just like me but when he gets

accused of something that's sketchy and

then the system closes in on him that is

me because I live in the same system

that system is surrounding me touches me

every moment I walk and live and breathe

same

system if a guy him I I feel it

personally now I'm a public figure so

maybe I'm at more risk than the average

person but if somebody who's just a

voter an ordinary Republican is going to

say that I feel threatened because Trump

got

lawed that's what I predicted I

predicted empathy you see remember

empathy is not just your empathy for the

other person there's always a little bit

of it which is I'm glad it's not me like

that's that's connected to empathy I'm

glad it's not me so I think people feel

this one personally I did yeah that the

the conviction of trump didn't feel like

a political outcome to me it wasn't just

because I'm supporting you for president

it felt personal like I I felt I was

being handcuffed I mean I can't explain

it but did anybody have the same

experience that you you just put

yourself in the scene

and you saw yourself unfairly convicted

and lawed because we've all been I think

most of us have had the experience where

the system was against them unfairly it

could have been anything could have been

your school administrators you know your

job but everybody's felt the system

being against them and then we watched

it happen to

Trump anyway

um here's the other way they use the

fake polls I think this was maybe in

some publication they said that Trump

has a 1.8% lead based on 173

polls so he's up 1.8% based on the

average of 173

polls how many of those polls are

credible well during fake polling season

you don't want Trump to look like he's

up five because that would be too big to

rig so you put a bunch of fake ones in

the mix and then all the people who are

trying to be reasonable but of course

they're making mistake they say well the

reasonable thing would be to take the

average

no no the reasonable thing would be to

take the average if you knew that they

all did a similarly credible job of

doing their work but you don't you don't

average the fake polls with the real

ones that's what they did because I'm

sure that some percentage of these are

legit legitimately

faked right in other words the people

who did them knew what they were doing

when they did them you don't average

fake poles and real ones that that's

nothing that that's trying to hide the

ball that's what that

is meanwhile Trump is on Tik Tok as you

know but here's a surprise uh somebody

named Tara paulmy I don't know what her

role is but she seems to know some stuff

um she said that the pro Trump content

is 10 to 12 times more popular than Pro

Biden stuff on Tik Tok and she says two

Tik Tok officials told her that um that

since November there's been two times

more prot Trump content than

Biden uh I don't know how that Maxes

with matches with the 10 times more but

okay and according to an internal Tik

toac

analysis uh Trump content beat Biden

content by 10 to1 in likes and 12 to1 in

views does that sound real do you

believe that Tik Tock is pushing hard

for

Trump here's one way to explain it and I

don't know if this is enough Biden is

not

memeable but Trump is super me memeable

like the Trump memes are funny and

they're interesting have you seen the

one where Trump is uh is riding the back

of a giant golden eagle and and the

golden eagle picks up Biden from the

water like a fish and and Trump is like

yeah have you seen that one it is

terrific it's just terrific and even if

it weren't an election you'd laugh at it

because it's so well done so I just

don't know that the the left can meme

you know we've been saying that for

years I I think the quality of the meme

has got to have a big impact on who

views it and likes it so I would think

that because Trump Trump is the most

meable character in the history of

characters and Biden is the least meable

character in the history of politicians

at least uh you would expect more Trump

action but that there's so much even in

a um what you would imagine would be a

more left-leaning um vehicle is weird it

does suggest that

China maybe is not putting their finger

on the scales or do you imagine that

China is putting their finger on the

scales of Tik Tock because they want

Trump to

win can you can you think of a reason

why China would want Trump to

win think of a reason for that I've got

one why would they want Trump to win now

if you're a trump supporter you're going

to immediately go to oh because they can

negotiate with

him right I don't

know

maybe allow me to

suggest another

possibility if China is watching the

news in America like everybody else you

know they must have people who are you

know good at English and watching the

news and summarizing it for the leaders

that's I'm sure that's happening in some

form um they would be watching the

United States grappling with the most

controversial character of all time and

it might look like the election of Trump

would tear the country apart so it's

entirely possible that from China's

perspective if they believe

MSNBC and they believe CNN um at least

half of CNN they might think that the

worst thing that could happen to America

is for Trump to be reelected because

it'll tear the country apart they might

be

right but if you go with the theory that

China could make um Tik Tock put their

finger on any algorithm and any content

they wanted if you think that there is

really control there and if you think

they exercised it the only reason you

would exercise it 10 to1 in favor of

trump which doesn't sound real to me I

mean just doesn't sound real uh unless

it's thumb on the scale situation

um maybe they think he's bad for America

maybe don't

know here's my mini theme for today

Democrats have an idiot problem in

leadership I'm going to give you several

examples of idiots in the leadership of

Democrats you know Larry Fink the CEO of

Black Rock they were really big on

ESG and then he said um ESG is really

embarrassing us we better pull back

because all the Dei thing completely

exploded and embarrassed them now he's

saying that you need like

clean uh energy that isn't intermittent

because we're going to need so much for

our data centers do you know what that

means

pronuclear and maybe get your finger off

of all the uh things that would stop

energy from being produced I think I

think Larry fank is who I call a smart

idiot if he and I did an IQ test I think

he'd beat

me you know I think you probably could

get into a better school than I could

have at the time Etc so I'm not saying

his IQ wasn't high but with this ESG

stuff we observe him acting like an

idiot

like he maybe he didn't understand the

implications of what would happen if he

made ESG his his Center piece of his

thing but it looks like it all blew up

in his face and I think I could have

told them I think I could have told him

exactly where that would end up so he's

a smart idiot and I think what causes

that is obviously not the smart part

because the smart part seems on T you

know it seems fine there there's

something about the the gas lighting and

the brainwashing that the Democrats get

that will make even the smartest person

turn into an

idiot but then they they have real

idiots too like Maxine Waters um so

she's saying that domest Trump's

supporters are quote domestic terrorists

and she wonders if they're preparing a

civil war against us so she said that

again recently

now you could say to yourself well she

doesn't believe those things she's just

saying them for political purposes but

if she is she's the worst leader

ever cuz it's just a terrible thing for

a leader to be saying so I'd say she's a

leader and she's an idiot but unlike

Larry Frink who might have a high IQ

there's no indication she's anything but

dumb I watched a uh conversation uh

online between Megan Kelly uh and David

Pacman now David Pacman is a prominent

uh pundit podcaster on the left and what

I learned was that when somebody on the

left talks to a well-informed person on

the right it always goes the same way

the person on the left realizes that

they haven't been getting correct news

the entire time so Megan Kelly fact

checked him so hard I think he left his

jock strap a block back uh I mean he he

got banged down hard and when I was done

with it I said to myself huh

David Pacman does not look nearly as

smart as Megan Kelly like they don't

look like they're even on the same level

really and but David Pacman's a

prominent voice on the left

and compared to Megan Kelly came off as

an idiot but he would be you know a

normal person he has normal IQ but I

think he too well based based on what I

saw he didn't know enough about what was

true

so his opinions were all ridiculous

because he didn't know what the facts

were and when Megan Kelly sort of

informed in what was true it you cause

like some kind of weird cognitive

dissonance in them so you have to watch

that um then so that's more

idiots

um let's see uh David Sachs on the X

profile points out that the Hillary

campaign operative

who cooked the books to hide payments

for the steel dossier became the SEC

chairman then the Biden campaign

operative who orchestrated the 51 spies

who lied about hunters um crimes on the

laptop I guess became Secretary of

State and then David saak says Dems know

how to reward election

interference now I'm going to I'm going

to add this to my theme of Democrats

having idiots for leaders in this case

they have criminals as Leaders because

they were actually promoted for doing

things what maybe weren't technically

illegal but look like they should have

been um how smart is it to promote the

people who get caught the reason that

we're talking about these two people who

got uh rewarded is because we know what

they

did I'm going to go with Trump I prefer

people who don't get

caught I think the smart people can do

bad things and not get

caught but the Democrats have people who

aren't smart enough to get away with it

because they all got caught but they got

rewarded anyway so I guess I should ask

who's the smart one here is it me or

them they got promoted so maybe they're

the Smart Ones in this

case then we have the uh Biden dementia

tapes still trying to get those

apparently they've been locked in a

skiff so that somebody can go listen to

them but they can't let you listen to it

that's right so then when uh let's say

some Republican listens to it and comes

back and says oh it was really terrible

he was in bad shape all they have to do

is send down Adam shiff to say no he's

not he's fine I listen to the same thing

so they're gonna skiff shiff us the play

is to skiff shiff the skiff shift as you

put it in the skiff this highly secure

place where nobody can take a picture

picture of it or take a copy they can

only experience it inside that room so

all they have to do is send their best

Liars into the room and they'll come out

and say no it was fine I listened to it

too it's fine the the play here is so

obvious it it's just so obvious that

it's a ski shift play yeah it's just a

standard ski

shift well my questions have been

answered about the Soros organization or

at least why Alex Soros is going along

with his dad's ideas that are terrible

and destroying the world there's a clip

of him at the wef um just talking about

a topic and uh I'll just give you one

quote to show you that what we learn

from watching him talk in public he

seems to be an

idiot he just actually seems to be

dumb and maybe really dumb based on the

the clip so he's talking to the public

one man Donald Trump literally came in

and just took that uh took that uh took

that all away um you know so um you know

um you know you know um you took that um

um way you took that checks and balances

that you know we had these Customs the

these uh um well you know the um the um

the um the um the uh the customs and um

um he came in like Donald Trump he um

then he like um you took it all away

from

us now I might be exaggerating a little

bit on there but you have to listen to

it if you listen to him talking you will

immediately understand why nobody asks

him for interviews there's no way he's

going to say yes to an interview because

he's incompetent talking in public in

fact you would be hard pressed to find

anybody who can't talk in public as much

as he can't talk in public he's really

really bad at it so he probably just

says

no because he can't talk in public I

guess in that case he had to try but it

was a just a train

wreck

yeah wow

and he must be under the Trump is Hitler

train because you know he thinks he

thinks uh not only is Trump a stealing

your democracy but he's stealing your

Unwritten

Customs that's right Trump stole your

Unwritten

rules that's what he said in

public wow um also Constantine kissen uh

did a great thing for the world that

didn't work out at all you know how I've

been saying that we need to have uh like

legitimate debates on topics where

you've got plenty of time but you've

also got a strong host a moderator who

can really keep you in line and don't do

it in like this political way where you

let the politicians lie you know just

get some experts some people will really

know what they're talking about put them

together put a strong moderator in the

middle Boom everybody gets better

informed and maybe you can work

something

out that's what I thought until

yesterday and then I watched Constantine

kissen do again I'll say you know a

great thing for the public which is he

tried to pull it pull off the very thing

we think we

wanted and the topic was Gaza and what

should have Israel done and what should

they do now I guess and and he had two

sides and here's the model that I held

in my head until that

moment when two two parties disagree on

something you know they they might want

different things you know some wants

this the other wants that usually unless

the parties are you know just totally

bad people you can usually find a

compromise you could find some way to

you know find a a negotiated settlement

that everybody's not perfectly happy

with but happy enough and so we imagine

that that model which works all the time

in business right in business you're

always negotiating and usually you can

work stuff out so why can't they well I

found out

why and I'm going to tell you a a

reframe here that will explain a lot

going forward it's one I hadn't noticed

before it goes like this the people who

were on the two sides of the Gaza debate

did not disagree

on what should be done per se although

that's what it looked like on the

surface they disagreed on

reality they disagreed on

reality and they weren't even close and

let me tell you you can't negotiate a

middle ground between two different

versions of reality

you can't get there from here so and

thought that it could ever be negotiated

while the two are living in completely

different realities of how we got here

and who's the bad guy and who's the good

guy you can't you can't negotiate

that it's completely absurd I actually

used to think and and by the way this is

something that one of the debate people

said uh in effect the the pro

Palestinian um arguers

said the Palestinians have a set of um

demands that are somewhat reasonable now

this would be their View and if you were

to um make some action toward addressing

their demands you could stop the

terrorism so you could stop another

October 7th by

simply addressing the legitimate

concerns of the

Palestinians and once they saw that

things are moving in the right direction

the reason for terrorism would go away

and they say oh this is working so we'll

just keep doing this peaceful

negotiating because you know we got a

few things we'll get some

more that can't work if you're living in

different

realities that only works if you're in

the same

reality and you you want different

things and then you have something you

can work with because you don't want the

same things the same things that are

limited resources you can't make a deal

if you want if everybody wants the thing

that there's only one of you can't can't

solve that but in a normal situation uh

you want work I want money we can make a

deal because we don't want the same

thing and we live in the same reality

the reality is you have a job I have

skills you have money same reality you

can always make that work

but here are some of the things I heard

and and let me say let me tell you who I

sided with both sides are completely

up

right so there's a pro-israel side

everything they're doing is what you

have to do in October 7th and then the

other side was well maybe if you were

nicer to the Palestinians you wouldn't

be in this situation both crazy there

there are two realities that I don't

recognize at all

so let me let me give you an

example uh the pro-israel guy argued

that uh all over the world there are

examples of locals who got displaced

and should have the right of

return like the Palestinians but his

point is why are you only looking at

Israel like the one place where the

people who got kicked out should have

the right to come back when all over the

world there are people who have been

kicked out of all kinds of places and

then nobody's saying right to return for

them so why are you saying it for Israel

does that sound like a good argument to

you what do all of the other places have

to do with this

nothing

nothing it's it's not even on

point uh well what do you think of

Israel and the Palestinians should do

well there's this totally other

situation no that's just another

situation to to imagine that that's like

a leading point or you know you're

winning your argument if you take that

out that's that's insane let me tell you

the only model that makes any sense

whatsoever Whoever has the power to hold

land

holds it until somebody else has more

power and then they take it away from

you that's all it is to imagine that

there's some narrative that we should

all accept on either side or anything in

the middle is really absurd you can pick

your narrative if you want but it

doesn't make any difference it's just

power and and now let me ask you this

imagine you're a

Palestinian and by the way one of the

participants what was her name

uh forgot to write it

down but uh Constantine later called her

Dei

Barbie apparently things didn't go well

toward the end of the

debate he called her Dei

Barbie after the fact they were arguing

on on X

but that's pretty gutsy to to do that

anyway one of the points she made is she

said that uh there are Palestinians I

don't know if this is literally true or

it just sounds good who still have the

key to the door where they used to live

in

Israel and now there's somebody else

living there and they weren't

compensated now what do you do about

them and it's worse it wasn't even that

Israel you know conquered the land and

took it over somebody else gave them

their house so just imagine you're a

Palestinian and you wake up one day it's

like hey uh the UN decided that

uh that Israel owns this

land

uh but do they own my

house well

no but things are going to get really

tough when they start moving in what do

you mean well I I mean legally you could

keep your house but things might get a

little tense once you're

outnumbered and next thing you know if

you're a Palestinian it looks like and

and I'm saying this is how it would feel

I I try to put myself in the situation

and say how would I feel here's what it

feels like the UN gave your house to

your

enemies and never talk to you about it

wait a minute the UN gave my house

to my

enemy and I wasn't I wasn't

consulted now you could go back and say

yes but before that you know the Jews

lived there forever and then the pal you

know the Arabs kicked them out and so

really it's the Jews coming home and you

know you could argue with forever but

here's one of the things that

Constantine helpfully tried to inject

because both sides wanted to talk about

the past

you know the the past grievances now

your instinct says if you're locked in

the past you'll never you'll never make

progress so Constantine is trying to say

all right all right you know we could

talk about the past but what should we

do today like what are you going to do

like what what should Israel have done

differently and it turns out that

neither side was willing to forget the

past because they say you're you're not

really going to understand the present

without the past you know separating

them does doesn't make sense but when

they say the past what they mean is

their Narrative of the past which is

fiction both the narratives are fiction

there's not a true one and a fake one

you knew that

right in this kind of stuff there's no

real one there's always just the two

narratives you know and each will leave

out the inconvenient things for the

other

ones so I'm uh just just to clarify uh

I'm pro Israel being a country and

they're our Ally and I'm glad that we're

supporting them

Etc um but there's no

truth like if you think any of it has to

do with truth I think you're lost it's

power the Israelis have the power to

hold the country they're going to build

it it'll you know they're doing lots of

good

things um and that's the end of the

story I could have an opinion about it

but it wouldn't change the fact that

they have the power to hold it that's

kind of the whole story

but I don't believe uh in the if you

give the Palestinians what they're

asking for everything will be good

because anybody who's Pro Palestinian

likes to do the thing where they ignore

the we want to kill every Jew and take

all your all your land which they would

say used to be their land so you can't

really negotiate If part of the

negotiators want you dead and that's

their final offer so to imagine this is

negotiatable is just kind of crazy kind

of

crazy so I'm going to give uh

Constantine big props for holding the

event I think uh pbd did a similar thing

with Chris Cuomo and comic Dave Smith

and that certainly produced some good

entertainment and uh I'd like to see

more of

it but I would say that there's no point

in having a debate where if you're

starting from different realities and

that's not going to change so

so uh meanwhile there's some confusion

over this so-called ceasefire peace plan

road map thing that Biden says is

Israel's idea but Israel says no we just

tweaked a few things and then somebody

else says

um somebody else

says uh what they say I've confused two

of things

here oh it's strange that they say it's

an isra proposal and at the same time

they say Israel needs to agree to

it so I guess the Biden Administration

has said oh yeah this is Israel's idea

as soon as they agree to

it wait if it's their

idea didn't they start with agreeing

with their own idea or did they have an

idea they didn't agree with and they've

got to be convinced to agree with their

own

idea or is it possible that Biden is

been lying to us the entire time I'm

going to go with lying to us the entire

time um and I like the uh getting back

to Constantine's uh debate here one of

the guys on the uh pro-israel side said

that all Hamas has to do is stop

fighting and losing Wars and uh

everything will be fine I used to

believe that too I used to believe that

if just the Palestinians would just stop

losing War

mors they could negotiate with the rest

of the world and and get what they

wanted I don't think there's any chance

of

that because there's a hardcore faction

that will never stop doing it and it

doesn't matter if half of them want

peace if the other half doesn't there's

nothing you can do with that no so there

it seems that you know there's enough

people who want to destroy all of Israel

that there's nothing you can do it's

just power they they will keep coming

and Israel will keep beating them back

as long as they

can anyway then it looked like uh one of

the things that Constantine was

complaining about is that uh the woman

who is the with woman he called the Dei

Barbie uh after the event not during the

event but um that she wouldn't answer a

question but I didn't see that exactly I

know what he was talking about but that

she wouldn't ask answer the question of

what Israel should have done or should

do and it sounded like she was just

talking about the past but she did kind

of meander back to it and here was her

answer that Israel should be more like

the United States more of a Melting Pot

and although people acknowledge that

there already you know Islamic people

living within Israel happily uh and

there are no Jewish people living in

Gaza happily uh but

here's the

thing

um oh I had some good point I was going

to make there that I just lost while I

was talking about the other stuff all

right well I don't think that uh just

stopping fighting is going to fix

anything because that there seems to be

some permanent uh difference in reality

I guess that's the bottom line all right

ladies and gentlemen that's all I've got

for you on today's news thanks for

joining I'm going to go uh talk to the

locals people

privately and uh I'm going to say

goodbye to X and YouTube and Rumble uh

and I'm going to stall a little bit and

drink some coffee because I understand

there's a delay in the

transmission

[Music]

so the main show is over but I'm just

stalling and having a sip of coffee

all right locals people here I

come locals only

in see update stream is it

working it is not

working all right so we have a

technical technical

failure all right we have a technical

failure the uh software won't allow me

to um go private with just the locals

people let me try one more

time locals and supporters update stream

yeah it doesn't seem to

work what happens if I try to cancel the

oops that didn't

work yeah all right so I can't go

private um but let me do this I'm going

to I'm going to end the rumble Studio

stream

and see if I can keep up the other

stream would that

work all right uh locals I'm going to

I'll open up another stream if if it

doesn't continue I'm just going to close

the main Rumble studio and I'll talk to

you if I

can all right it's not even ending all

right we're back to uh we're back to the

studio won't turn off all right

so um we'll need to do some manual and

of the the various streams I'll probably

have to um delete the X stream because

you can't end them when I get to this

error the xtram will just stay live

forever unless I delete it so if I

delete it I lose all the uh monetization

from it all right I'm just going to kill

this and see what I can

do

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