Episode 854 Scott Adams - Special Crisis Periscope Because What Else Have I Got To Do?

hey everybody I know a lot of you are probably watching the Bernie Sanders livestream of music right now which I got to say Bernie thank you excellent job so Bernie I guess instead of his rally got some bands and got Neil Young to sing live on periscope and he was promoting Bernie and I think he's somewhere remotely but the rest of us we just get to listen to really good music I don't know if you tuned into that but it was it was great so congratulations Bernie great job during the virus creative and good for the public I appreciate it if somebody says no Tucker's on sorry yeah you've got Tucker recorded or you can watch me record it it works both ways so keep me company while I set up my desk that's why I'm here I am literally here to keep you company we are going to have a paucity of entertainment unless people step up and according to the Bernie Sanders live stream that looks like people are I'll try to do the same I tweeted earlier that I predict there will be a bunch of outdoor drive-in theaters popping up because it's real easy to do yeah you can buy a buy a little projector for yourself put it on the wall all you need is a screen of some sort some kind of flat surface and a place to park so how hard would it be for somebody to just turn a parking lot into a drive-in movie couldn't you do it now I think what you need to do is you'd have to get the sound into the car but that seems doable must be an app that can stream how hard would that be stream the movie into your car and then play it you know optionally you could play it through your speakers then everybody during the coronavirus crisis can just drive up in the car watch the movie if you do it in your neighborhood you might have to use the bathroom at home I guess bathroom would be a problem but you're going to see a lot of creativity anyway here's what I've been thinking about because I find my role during the crisis is to make people feel more relaxed because once you've done everything you can do everything the government tells you to do well your job after that is to relax that's actually your job because you need to stay healthy you need to keep your immune system up hey you don't need a stress so do what you need to do but then it's your job to relax for health reasons from the benefit of the country so let me tell you some things to help you relax that's what we're going to do here today the first thing you need to know is that while there there have been some publicized you know our missteps in the beginning of this thing the country is really stepping up really really stepping up very impressive and let me give you one concrete example of that when when I had the suggestion of allowing doctors to practice across state lines that idea ended up in the the hands of the president's chief of staff I think in an hour I think it took one hour for just an ordinary good idea that doctors should temporarily at least be able to practice across state lines it took an hour one hour that idea was literally in the hands of Mark Meadows or in his brain he you said it sounded you know like something you wanted to look into and then I got a confirmation back in one hour now that's not the only time that's happened it's just it's kind of a clean example but for whatever accident of history I ended up being sort of a filter and curator of some ideas that people are sending up and they don't know who to talk to in some cases they don't know who to connect to and I just happened to be able to do that so the the stuff you're not seeing is working really well the the people who are restocking the shelves etc they're working hard there's a lot of good stuff happening and more coming so I want to talk about some of the you know thinking thinking past the sale here a little bit sooner or later we're gonna get a handle on this thing we're gonna get control of it like we always do if you bet against humanity well you're on the wrong side it's a bad bet we're good at this stuff and this is nowhere near something that's going to take us down nowhere near this is an annoyance that has some weird unintended benefits now I'm not losing sight of the hard times they had but it doesn't hurt to just take your mind off of that for a while and here's it you're a few things that I could identify this seemed to me likely to be better in the future because of the virus now you could you know quibble with some of them but we'll let me run through the first thing that's going to be better is science maybe not every branch of science but because of this crisis suddenly a whole bunch of people who would not have met each other met that's a big deal when you take all these geniuses in the world they're really that the smartest people in this field and you say now you don't have a choice you're working together you're gonna you're gonna cross pollinate you're gonna share ideas and you're still going to know each other when it's done this is huge I mean it's enormous but also kind of invisible because the benefits are down the line and you'll never really know what one came out of it but when you put this many of the brightest people in the world together on the same problem they don't stay you know they don't lose touch that becomes a permanent like part of a you know society's brain if you will that just you know just got organized by this problem so in a sense this virus is like you know any blow to the body let's say your muscles if you overwork them well they break down and then they build back stronger and you see I think you'll see that with science you're also seeing participate in government I didn't know what to call it but the example that I used before where average citizens are just saying I could build a factory you know I can get that done I mean maybe not with my hands and my own hands but I could make that happen people saying I can solve this problem I can help this person you know I could I could find somebody you need something so we've created this the internet helps you know tremendously to this we've created a participant kind of a government where that distinction between what's the government and what the what is the people as somewhat you know got a little murky right because it is foul key the government or izya scientists are all the scientists the government or they private what about all the people are working with the government so it's like the government and the public just just became this you know the single creature and maybe some of the good parts will keep specifically the part about bubbling up good ideas I think this process is going to identify new leaders now it's a presidential season but I'm not talking about that I'm simply talking about the fact that let me use this example if you were in a crowded cafe and there was an explosion outside and you thought it was bad whatever it is most of the people in the cafe are gonna get up and run because they should but in that cafe there will be three people who stand up and walk directly toward the danger because there's something about humans that we breed heroes not all of us obviously and if those three people ended up needing more help people who were not heroes would just become heroes almost spontaneously you know we're sort of like chameleons like that we run when running away makes sense but then when it doesn't ordinary people just become heroes you're seeing it every day it's happening it's happening all over the world so we're gonna identify new leaders I don't know what that means I don't know if any of them will become permanent leaders but you'll know who they were you will know who they were our pandemic defense is getting a real good test you know tests except unfortunately it's a real thing will it be better after this is done absolutely was this the biggest problem we'll ever have with a pandemic probably not so having the one that doesn't kill you and tells you oh for sure there might be one later that does that allows us to strengthen our defense when this is over we will be the strongest we've ever been as a civilization because we'll have this and right now it's one of our biggest vulnerabilities as a species if you will home delivery of course we'll just go through the roof I heard Amazon is looking to hire a hundred thousand more people Safeway apparently is hiring like crazy that's my local local grocery store and I had no problem at all door dashing now I don't know if that'll change but I'm ordering food from local restaurants because that may be the change that's coming the change is coming might be that restaurants become more like kitchens and maybe the costs go down with volume and stuff and and and at least for the while we'll keep them alive with ordering from them and that also takes the burden off of your emergency supplies because the restaurants are well stocked you know they have more than they can sell right now so buy from your local restaurant save the beans and rice just in case I don't think you're gonna need them I'll talk about that in a minute I think our hygiene as a people permanently approved I think we are permanently more hygienic species after this because we're building habits it's in their heads is that our training go die gene how many of you have any lives will lessen if well it will save more I can confidently predict this that we will save more lives with all the hygiene you know reflexes that people are developing then we will lose with the Kuroda virus we will come out ahead it just won't be right away send us a lot of people are taking the advice to use this excuse to get healthy nobody's gonna argue with you especially if you're you know an older less over 50 but they're not gonna argue with anybody when you say I have to take a walk I just I have to go for a run I've got to lift some way it's yeah home you know I wouldn't go to the gym but you're gonna learn to do it at home try walking so I did a little experiment you know stress is kind of high with everybody so yesterday I did not take a long walk it's the first time in a long time and I gotta tell you my mental state was far more let's say rebel than it was on all the days that I walked so then the next day I walked and I just said alright now do a little internal survey and by the way I recommend this you should always do a little audit of your mental state after you've done a physical thing especially exercise and especially eating any particular type of food just see how you feel me for a few hours after and I can tell you that after a long walk wasn't you know wasn't exhausting it was just a nice good long walk I came back in my mental state was excellent slept like a baby it was great so if you don't do anything else you should take a walk every day really all right our prepping skills gonna be much better if there's any other future time that something comes up Wow are we gonna be better at this alright I'm not saying that you know that's a good thing that we have a you know another tragedy of course but we'll be ready for it so that's good what about the online school I think it will move faster to online I think the ubi situation in my opinion the ubi idea of at least temporarily during the crisis giving people who need it I don't know maybe everybody but people who needed at least $1,000 a month maybe more who knows but something like that I would almost guarantee that's going to happen that that's as close to definitely happening as just about anything I could think of and the reason that I'm going to say it's close to definitely going to happen is that it looks like it might be necessary and here's why you know it's going to happen rich people wanted to write and that's the problem basically rich people are going to say yes ubi let's crank it out and you know I don't think you'll get disagreement this is not a democrat thing this is not a republican thing and if all the rich people agree which they never had agreed on the ubi before I mean had been polarizing kind of a topic that was growing in popularity but at the moment to save the people who literally can't buy food you're not going to find a rich person who says no to that and if you do steal their food you have my permission now really now really when somebody says what navall says one is stupid the ubi I don't think he is talking about the ubi for an emergency situation so I don't know that we'll ever move to yubi hyperbole you know some kind of $1,000 a month the situation no matter what you do but we will test it wouldn't that be good to have a test I think our healthcare system will be forever better because all the things we learned I think there are lots of regulations that will never come back because once they were gone people didn't miss them I think the risk to our supply chain which at the moment I think it's actually kind of low yeah if I had to you know put money on it but I guess I have I guess I have put money on because I still have my money in market the supply chain is something we do well and food will come back first you're never going to have a problem with energy I don't see any chance of that you'll love you'll have water you'll have all the basics the garbage will get picked up I imagine and we'll go on so I think everybody everything is heading in the direction of under control somebody says where does the money come from well it would drive up the debt but the reason I said that it's important that rich people agreed to it they just realized I had my headphones on I'm probably talking too loud somebody says you making me feel terrible why what have I said that makes you feel terrible so the debt will go up no matter what that's just a given but I thought we can figure our way out of this all right yeah Trump tweeted that this virus is the Chinese virus so that just happened I hear I got a mixed opinion on that and it goes like this in ordinary times I wouldn't have any problem with the president doing his usual provocative stuff and you know he knows how to do it you know senator provoked and then people would say ah you racist stop calling it a Chinese virus and then he would say but that's where it started has nothing to do with racism and then he would get all the attention and you know it looks like a play that he's played lots of times before but it doesn't feel right in a crisis does it it feels small so I wish he hadn't done it I think it was a mistake yeah I've never I've never said he'd made he's made more communication mistakes than this week but I also think that you know the experts are doing a great job and the country's doing a great job and I think the President did what he needed to do just the communication just he's just not I hadn't a communication this week it's like his little tone deaf or something and but I but here's the softening of that the president might be preparing us for decoupling now let me say it a different way the president is preparing us for decoupling and if calling it a Chinese virus makes you feel worse about China it makes it a little easier to decouple and bring our supply chain back well ok you know I'm going to give them a pass so I can have two opinions on this and I think that they can they can live together one opinion is didn't like it wasn't the right time under normal circumstances sure have some fun with it but right now I'm not the right time however we are in crisis mode and nitpicking the president's words is sort of beneath all of us but you asked the question I'm just trying to I'm just trying to be conversational here I think you got to let that stuff go for now yeah whether it's the president whether somebody else whether it's you know your your most heated pundit on TV just kind of gotta let the little stuff go just for a while yeah you can get back to chewing each other to death and whenever whenever we're back to normal but the president is preparing this for decoupling if that's what he had in mind when he was framing that way I'd say hmm yeah okay I can see that it's just you know maybe not the perfect time all right it is a Chinese virus say what it is name your enemy to effectively fight well I don't think there's any chance that it's an intentional you know any kind of bio weapon so I think we need to to leave that behind do we all agree for a long time I was I was open to the question of gosh where did this come from I'm still open to the question it could have come in you know some kind of a laboratory but I reject the idea that it was designed and deliberately and deliberately released so I don't think it's designed and I don't think it was deliberately released but I might a command of some lab that had a lot of samples of one thing or another that's entirely possible the super you're right what about stocks what about gold I will give you no recommendation about gold gold is something I've never understood beyond the fact that it's a psychological phenomenon so I don't give advice on things which I don't consider an investment and gold can't act as a hedge there's no doubt about it in some circumstances but not necessarily reliably and I wouldn't call it an investment so I won't give you advice on it but stocks I also don't give advice on stocks except generic so I'm not going to tell you buy this stock buy this buy that it does seem to be that there's some kind of realignment happening in the world I have a broad index I would expect you know a third of my stocks to really suck for a long time but did I mentioned Amazon is hiring a thousand people right so that there there are other companies that will grow like crazy and it will at least partially offset you know some of the ones that are gonna shrink so this is just a general statement not advice diversified polio portfolios have never lost never if you get a bet on something bet on something that's never lost what's the record you know how long is this unbroken record of a diversified portfolio never losing no when I say never I mean over any ten-year period in any given year you could have a year like this but if you just hold on you would be you would be in an asset class this since the beginning of the asset class I am NOT a historian enough to know when was the first stock issued but never never not nobody's ever lost money in the stock market if they were willing to hold it you know ten years or whatever now I think this is going to be far less than a ten year problem because your your 10 year slumps in the economy have more of a reason you know there's something about the world that's not quite working whereas that's not the case the moment this virus is under control all of our assets all of our people boom we just slide them back in and start cranking it so I've said this before but whenever the recovery starts and that's the part you know I'm not gonna make a prediction about that but whatever happens the recovery is going to be frickin awesome it will be a recovery like nobody's ever seen so there will be records set on the upside at least percentage-wise not you know I don't know how long it'll take to get to get back to where we were but there will be records sent it'll happen pretty quickly it'll probably happen about the time you start seeing good news about the virus rate going down that's probably premature and I say that only because we expect the the flu has a good chance of having a you know a double hump gets bad might be better in the summer might not but and that might get worse in the winter might not a lot of unknowns will this event inspire better cinema scripts well let me put it this way so I've been telling you that we're on the cusp of the Golden Age and then this happens and so you say to yourself well Scott I guess you got this one wrong you're you're way wrong this doesn't seem so golden to me but it feels like a movie and we just hit the third act if you watch any drama movie actually any movie the third act is that thing that's sort of you know closer to the end than the beginning in which the hero of the story is in an impossible situation and the audience can't even imagine how it could be solved it's like unimaginable there's any solution that's the third act that's where we are and just because you can't imagine it doesn't mean it won't get solved because we're not the ones who know how this stuff works luckily the experts do imagine it and they have a better idea of you know where is it where it's going but it does feel weirdly like a movie script and we're right in the middle of the third act and how does the third act go always the same way always the same way the the arrow wins that's how it works so if you think this is a simulation that we're in and that it's following movie script form which it seems to do by coincidence or designed I don't know probably coincidence but you'll see it often yeah somebody says hopefully not the fourth act inflection point shows fake or real weakness or strength yeah I didn't understand that yeah the video conferencing companies are going crazy somebody says will you admit you're wrong what do we do don't see many deaths like China and Italy why would I is there something you don't understand about my opinion that that that question made sense because I'm not one who said we're all doomed the the danger is if you don't act but we're acting and the panic of my god millions could die is what causes people to act there's no conflict between anything I've said and either a good result or a bad result because I don't have a prediction on the outcome except that you know well it will be better than you're probably thinking it will be and faster somebody in the comments says have you heard of this correct rotavirus thing somebody says I'm in Hawaii should I worry less well you probably can't worry less just because you're in Hawaii I'd go to the beach if I were you you know the the beauty of Hawaii is that it's not very crowded anywhere and or at least would be easy to avoid anything that's crowded so you're better than most people certainly somebody says I am sensing more recovery talk in the last day you know if I have to guess I think things will get better in terms of store shelves and that the store shelf thing is such a big psychological you know my endeavor that if you go into a store and you can't buy something that's really that really plays with your head and I think we're well on the way to that being not even a problem in a few days that won't be a thing we talk about anymore I'm pretty sure because the the supply chains are really mature really efficient and it's really just a matter of you know standing in front of the production machines a little bit longer and shipping a little faster so I'm seeing a lot of people saying what somebody is saying in the comments I just just was having this conversation a lot of people think they have it it's pretty common but but a lot of people are wrong so we don't know I guess we'll learn it you have freelancers laid off by best clients you know everybody who has the ability to keep people employed they they have a responsibility to do it at this point and certainly that's what I'm doing so somebody says Trump took the bait on will there be a recession question should he have avoided it I didn't see how he handled that but I think it would be crazy to assume there won't be one because isn't it already happening and it's sort of like it's raining outside and somebody asks you hey is it gonna rain today and you're looking at the window and you're saying yeah I'm looking out the window so I'm not sure what the technical definition of a recession is but yeah we're going to have several months of suboptimal economic stuff no way to avoid it somebody says teens can make a ton of money delivering yeah you know and that's one of the best ideas I did I did an order from door - last night they have I think I mentioned us they have an option for Tucker for contact for no contact delivery you could just specify him there anything and people will just leave it at your door and they text you and say hey it's at your door Trump should stop commenting on the stock market yeah well I think the president has to talk about the financial markets so I think he has to I'm not sure he's he's an alien's they at least on that topic you know I don't know how many quarters of negative growth because there's going to be a whole lot of pent up demand but there will be you know there may be some businesses that take longer to come back online and restaurants might be among them so yeah I can see why it could last two quarters but certainly by the second quarter it's gonna be humming long all right I need to go and I will talk to you later

hey everybody I know a lot of you are

probably watching the Bernie Sanders

livestream of music right now which I

got to say Bernie thank you

excellent job so Bernie I guess instead

of his rally got some bands and got Neil

Young to sing live on periscope and he

was promoting Bernie and I think he's

somewhere remotely but the rest of us we

just get to listen to really good music

I don't know if you tuned into that but

it was it was great

so congratulations Bernie great job

during the virus creative and good for

the public I appreciate it

if somebody says no Tucker's on sorry

yeah you've got Tucker recorded or you

can watch me record it it works both

ways so keep me company while I set up

my desk that's why I'm here I am

literally here to keep you company we

are going to have a paucity of

entertainment unless people step up and

according to the Bernie Sanders live

stream that looks like people are I'll

try to do the same I tweeted earlier

that I predict there will be a bunch of

outdoor drive-in theaters popping up

because it's real easy to do yeah you

can buy a buy a little projector for

yourself put it on the wall all you need

is a screen of some sort some kind of

flat surface and a place to park so how

hard would it be for somebody to just

turn a parking lot into a drive-in movie

couldn't you do it now I think what you

need to do is you'd have to get the

sound into the car but that seems doable

must be an app that can stream how hard

would that be stream the movie into your

car and then play it you know optionally

you could play it through your speakers

then everybody during the coronavirus

crisis can just drive up in the car

watch the movie if you do it in your

neighborhood you might have to use the

bathroom at home I guess bathroom would

be a problem but you're going to see a

lot of creativity anyway here's what

I've been thinking about because I find

my role during the crisis is to make

people feel more relaxed because once

you've done everything you can do

everything the government tells you to

do well your job after that is to relax

that's actually your job because you

need to stay healthy you need to keep

your immune system up hey you don't need

a stress so do what you need to do but

then it's your job to relax for health

reasons from the benefit of the country

so let me tell you some things to help

you relax that's what we're going to do

here today the first thing you need to

know is that while there there have been

some publicized

you know our missteps in the beginning

of this thing the country is really

stepping up really really stepping up

very impressive and let me give you one

concrete example of that when when I had

the suggestion of allowing doctors to

practice across state lines that idea

ended up in the the hands of the

president's chief of staff I think in an

hour I think it took one hour for just

an ordinary good idea that doctors

should temporarily at least be able to

practice across state lines it took an

hour one hour that idea was literally in

the hands of Mark Meadows or in his

brain he you said it sounded you know

like something you wanted to look into

and then I got a confirmation back in

one hour now that's not the only time

that's happened it's just it's kind of a

clean example but for whatever accident

of history I ended up being sort of a

filter and curator of some ideas that

people are sending up

and they don't know who to talk to in

some cases they don't know who to

connect to and I just happened to be

able to do that so the the stuff you're

not seeing is working really well the

the people who are restocking the

shelves etc they're working hard there's

a lot of good stuff happening and more

coming so I want to talk about some of

the you know thinking thinking past the

sale here a little bit sooner or later

we're gonna get a handle on this thing

we're gonna get control of it like we

always do

if you bet against humanity well you're

on the wrong side it's a bad bet we're

good at this stuff

and this is nowhere near something

that's going to take us down nowhere

near this is an annoyance that has some

weird unintended benefits now I'm not

losing sight of the hard times they had

but it doesn't hurt to just take your

mind off of that for a while

and here's it you're a few things that I

could identify this seemed to me likely

to be better in the future because of

the virus now you could you know quibble

with some of them but we'll let me run

through the first thing that's going to

be better is science maybe not every

branch of science but because of this

crisis suddenly a whole bunch of people

who would not have met each other met

that's a big deal when you take all

these geniuses in the world they're

really that the smartest people in this

field and you say now you don't have a

choice you're working together you're

gonna you're gonna cross pollinate

you're gonna share ideas and you're

still going to know each other when it's

done this is huge

I mean it's enormous but also kind of

invisible because the benefits are down

the line and you'll never really know

what one came out of it but when you put

this many of the brightest people in the

world together on the same problem they

don't stay you know they don't lose

touch that becomes a permanent like part

of a you know society's brain if you

will that just you know just got

organized by this problem so in a sense

this virus is like you know any blow to

the body

let's say your muscles if you overwork

them well they break down and then they

build back stronger and you see I think

you'll see that with science you're also

seeing participate in government I

didn't know what to call it but the

example that I used before where average

citizens are just saying I could build a

factory you know I can get that done I

mean maybe not with my hands and my own

hands but I could make that happen

people saying I can solve this problem I

can help this person you know I could I

could find somebody you need something

so we've created this the internet helps

you know tremendously to this we've

created a participant kind of a

government where that distinction

between what's the government and what

the what is the people as somewhat you

know got a little murky right because it

is foul key the government or izya

scientists are all the scientists the

government or they private what about

all the people are working with the

government so it's like the government

and the public just just became this you

know the single creature and maybe some

of the good parts will keep specifically

the part about bubbling up good ideas I

think this process is going to identify

new leaders now it's a presidential

season but I'm not talking about that

I'm simply talking about the fact that

let me use this example if you were in a

crowded cafe and there was an explosion

outside and you thought it was bad

whatever it is most of the people in the

cafe are gonna get up and run because

they should but in that cafe there will

be three people who stand up and walk

directly toward the danger because

there's something about humans that we

breed heroes not all of us obviously and

if those three people ended up needing

more help people who were not heroes

would just become heroes almost

spontaneously you know we're sort of

like chameleons like that we run when

running away makes sense but then when

it doesn't

ordinary people just become heroes

you're seeing it every day it's

happening it's happening all over the

world so we're gonna identify new

leaders I don't know what that means I

don't know if any of them will become

permanent leaders but you'll know who

they were you will know who they were

our pandemic defense is getting a real

good test you know tests except

unfortunately it's a real thing

will it be better after this is done

absolutely

was this the biggest problem we'll ever

have with a pandemic probably not so

having the one that doesn't kill you and

tells you oh for sure

there might be one later that does that

allows us to strengthen our defense when

this is over we will be the strongest

we've ever been as a civilization

because we'll have this and right now

it's one of our biggest vulnerabilities

as a species if you will home delivery

of course we'll just go through the roof

I heard Amazon is looking to hire a

hundred thousand more people Safeway

apparently is hiring like crazy that's

my local local grocery store and I had

no problem at all door dashing now I

don't know if that'll change but I'm

ordering food from local restaurants

because that may be the change that's

coming the change is coming might be

that restaurants become more like

kitchens and maybe the costs go down

with volume and stuff and and and at

least for the while we'll keep them

alive with ordering from them and that

also takes the burden off of your

emergency supplies because the

restaurants are well stocked you know

they have more than they can sell right

now so buy from your local restaurant

save the beans and rice just in case I

don't think you're gonna need them I'll

talk about that in a minute I think our

hygiene as a people permanently approved

I think we are permanently more hygienic

species after this because we're

building habits it's in their heads is

that our training go die gene how many

of you have any lives will lessen if

well it will save more I can confidently

predict this that we will save more

lives with all the hygiene

you know reflexes that people are

developing then we will lose with the

Kuroda virus we will come out ahead

it just won't be right away send us a

lot of people are taking the advice to

use this excuse to get healthy

nobody's gonna argue with you especially

if you're you know an older less over 50

but they're not gonna argue with anybody

when you say I have to take a walk I

just I have to go for a run I've got to

lift some way it's yeah home you know I

wouldn't go to the gym but you're gonna

learn to do it at home

try walking so I did a little experiment

you know stress is kind of high with

everybody so yesterday I did not take a

long walk it's the first time in a long

time and I gotta tell you my mental

state was far more let's say rebel than

it was on all the days that I walked so

then the next day I walked and I just

said alright now do a little internal

survey and by the way I recommend this

you should always do a little audit of

your mental state after you've done a

physical thing especially exercise and

especially eating any particular type of

food just see how you feel me for a few

hours after and I can tell you that

after a long walk wasn't you know wasn't

exhausting it was just a nice good long

walk I came back in my mental state was

excellent slept like a baby it was great

so if you don't do anything else you

should take a walk every day really all

right

our prepping skills gonna be much better

if there's any other future time that

something comes up Wow are we gonna be

better at this alright I'm not saying

that you know that's a good thing that

we have a you know another tragedy of

course but we'll be ready for it so

that's good

what about the online school I think it

will move faster to online I think the

ubi situation in my opinion the ubi idea

of at least temporarily during the

crisis giving people who need it I don't

know maybe everybody but people who

needed at least $1,000 a month maybe

more who knows but something like that

I would almost guarantee that's going to

happen that that's as close to

definitely happening as just about

anything I could think of and the reason

that I'm going to say it's close to

definitely going to happen is that it

looks like it might be necessary and

here's why you know it's going to happen

rich people wanted to write and that's

the problem basically rich people are

going to say yes ubi let's crank it out

and you know I don't think you'll get

disagreement this is not a democrat

thing this is not a republican thing and

if all the rich people agree which they

never had agreed on the ubi before I

mean had been polarizing kind of a topic

that was growing in popularity but at

the moment to save the people who

literally can't buy food you're not

going to find a rich person who says no

to that and if you do steal their food

you have my permission now really now

really when somebody says what navall

says one is stupid the ubi I don't think

he is talking about the ubi for an

emergency situation so I don't know that

we'll ever move to yubi hyperbole you

know some kind of $1,000 a month the

situation no matter what you do but we

will test it wouldn't that be good to

have a test

I think our healthcare system will be

forever better because all the things we

learned I think there are lots of

regulations that will never come back

because once they were gone people

didn't miss them I think the risk to our

supply chain which at the moment I think

it's actually kind of low yeah if I had

to you know put money on it but I guess

I have I guess I have put money on

because I still have my money in

market the supply chain is something we

do well and food will come back first

you're never going to have a problem

with energy I don't see any chance of

that you'll love you'll have water

you'll have all the basics the garbage

will get picked up I imagine and we'll

go on so I think everybody everything is

heading in the direction of under

control

somebody says where does the money come

from well it would drive up the debt but

the reason I said that it's important

that rich people agreed to it they just

realized I had my headphones on I'm

probably talking too loud somebody says

you making me feel terrible

why what have I said that makes you feel

terrible so the debt will go up no

matter what that's just a given but I

thought we can figure our way out of

this all right

yeah Trump tweeted that this virus is

the Chinese virus so that just happened

I hear I got a mixed opinion on that and

it goes like this in ordinary times I

wouldn't have any problem with the

president doing his usual provocative

stuff and you know he knows how to do it

you know senator provoked and then

people would say ah you racist stop

calling it a Chinese virus and then he

would say but that's where it started

has nothing to do with racism and then

he would get all the attention and you

know it looks like a play that he's

played lots of times before but it

doesn't feel right in a crisis does it

it feels small so I wish he hadn't done

it I think it was a mistake yeah I've

never I've never said he'd made he's

made more communication mistakes than

this week but I also think that you know

the experts are doing a great job and

the country's doing a great job and I

think the President did what he needed

to do just the communication just he's

just not I hadn't a communication this

week it's like his little tone deaf

or something and but I but here's the

softening of that the president might be

preparing us for decoupling now let me

say it a different way the president is

preparing us for decoupling and if

calling it a Chinese virus makes you

feel worse about China it makes it a

little easier to decouple and bring our

supply chain back well ok you know I'm

going to give them a pass so I can have

two opinions on this and I think that

they can they can live together one

opinion is didn't like it wasn't the

right time under normal circumstances

sure have some fun with it but right now

I'm not the right time

however we are in crisis mode and

nitpicking the president's words is sort

of beneath all of us but you asked the

question I'm just trying to I'm just

trying to be conversational here I think

you got to let that stuff go for now

yeah whether it's the president whether

somebody else whether it's you know your

your most heated pundit on TV just kind

of gotta let the little stuff go just

for a while yeah you can get back to

chewing each other to death and whenever

whenever we're back to normal but the

president is preparing this for

decoupling if that's what he had in mind

when he was framing that way I'd say hmm

yeah okay I can see that it's just you

know maybe not the perfect time all

right

it is a Chinese virus say what it is

name your enemy to effectively fight

well I don't think there's any chance

that it's an intentional you know any

kind of bio weapon so I think we need to

to leave that behind do we all agree for

a long time I was I was open to the

question of gosh where did this come

from I'm still open to the question it

could have come in

you know some kind of a laboratory but I

reject the idea that it was designed and

deliberately and deliberately released

so I don't think it's designed and I

don't think it was deliberately released

but I might a command of some lab that

had a lot of samples of one thing or

another that's entirely possible

the super you're right what about stocks

what about gold I will give you no

recommendation about gold gold is

something I've never understood beyond

the fact that it's a psychological

phenomenon so I don't give advice on

things which I don't consider an

investment and gold can't act as a hedge

there's no doubt about it in some

circumstances but not necessarily

reliably and I wouldn't call it an

investment so I won't give you advice on

it but stocks I also don't give advice

on stocks except generic so I'm not

going to tell you buy this stock buy

this buy that it does seem to be that

there's some kind of realignment

happening in the world I have a broad

index I would expect you know a third of

my stocks to really suck for a long time

but did I mentioned Amazon is hiring a

thousand people right so that there

there are other companies that will grow

like crazy and it will at least

partially offset you know some of the

ones that are gonna shrink so this is

just a general statement not advice

diversified polio portfolios have never

lost never if you get a bet on something

bet on something that's never lost

what's the record you know how long is

this unbroken record of a diversified

portfolio never losing no when I say

never I mean over any ten-year period in

any given year you could have a year

like this but if you just hold on you

would be you would be in an asset class

this since the beginning of the asset

class I am NOT a historian enough to

know when was the first stock issued but

never never

not nobody's ever lost money in the

stock market if they were willing to

hold it you know ten years or whatever

now I think this is going to be far less

than a ten year problem because your

your 10 year slumps in the economy have

more of a reason you know there's

something about the world that's not

quite working whereas that's not the

case the moment this virus is under

control all of our assets all of our

people boom we just slide them back in

and start cranking it so I've said this

before but whenever the recovery starts

and that's the part you know I'm not

gonna make a prediction about that but

whatever happens the recovery is going

to be frickin awesome

it will be a recovery like nobody's ever

seen so there will be records set on the

upside at least percentage-wise not you

know I don't know how long it'll take to

get to get back to where we were but

there will be records sent it'll happen

pretty quickly it'll probably happen

about the time you start seeing good

news about the virus rate going down

that's probably premature and I say that

only because we expect the the flu has a

good chance of having a you know a

double hump gets bad might be better in

the summer might not but and that might

get worse in the winter might not a lot

of unknowns will this event inspire

better cinema scripts well let me put it

this way so I've been telling you that

we're on the cusp of the Golden Age and

then this happens and so you say to

yourself well Scott I guess you got this

one wrong you're you're way wrong this

doesn't seem so golden to me but it

feels like a movie and we just hit the

third act if you watch any drama movie

actually any movie the third act is that

thing that's sort of you know closer to

the end than the beginning in which the

hero of the story is in an impossible

situation and the audience can't even

imagine how it could be solved

it's like unimaginable there's any

solution that's the third act

that's where we are and just because you

can't imagine it doesn't mean it won't

get solved because we're not the ones

who know how this stuff works

luckily the experts do imagine it and

they have a better idea of you know

where is it where it's going but it does

feel weirdly like a movie script and

we're right in the middle of the third

act and how does the third act go always

the same way always the same way the the

arrow wins that's how it works so if you

think this is a simulation that we're in

and that it's following movie script

form which it seems to do by coincidence

or designed I don't know probably

coincidence

but you'll see it often yeah somebody

says hopefully not the fourth act

inflection point shows fake or real

weakness or strength yeah I didn't

understand that yeah the video

conferencing companies are going crazy

somebody says will you admit you're

wrong what do we do don't see many

deaths like China and Italy why would I

is there something you don't understand

about my opinion that that that question

made sense because I'm not one who said

we're all doomed the the danger is if

you don't act but we're acting and the

panic of my god millions could die is

what causes people to act there's no

conflict between anything I've said and

either a good result or a bad result

because I don't have a prediction on the

outcome except that you know well it

will be better than you're probably

thinking it will be and faster somebody

in the comments says have you heard of

this correct rotavirus thing

somebody says I'm in Hawaii should I

worry less well you probably can't worry

less just because you're in Hawaii I'd

go to the beach if I were you you know

the the beauty of Hawaii is that it's

not very crowded anywhere and or at

least would be easy to avoid anything

that's crowded so you're better than

most people certainly somebody says I am

sensing more recovery talk in the last

day you know if I have to guess I think

things will get better in terms of store

shelves and that the store shelf thing

is such a big psychological you know my

endeavor that if you go into a store and

you can't buy something that's really

that really plays with your head and I

think we're well on the way to that

being not even a problem in a few days

that won't be a thing we talk about

anymore I'm pretty sure because the the

supply chains are really mature really

efficient and it's really just a matter

of you know standing in front of the

production machines a little bit longer

and shipping a little faster so I'm

seeing a lot of people saying what

somebody is saying in the comments I

just just was having this conversation a

lot of people think they have it it's

pretty common but but a lot of people

are wrong so we don't know I guess we'll

learn it you have freelancers laid off

by best clients you know everybody who

has the ability to keep people employed

they they have a responsibility to do it

at this point and certainly that's what

I'm doing so somebody says Trump took

the bait on will there be a recession

question should he have avoided it I

didn't see how he handled that but I

think it would be crazy to assume there

won't be one because isn't it already

happening and it's sort of like it's

raining outside and somebody asks you

hey is it gonna rain today and you're

looking at the window and you're saying

yeah I'm looking out the window so I'm

not sure what the technical definition

of a recession is but yeah we're going

to have several months of suboptimal

economic stuff no way to avoid it

somebody says teens can make a ton of

money delivering yeah you know and

that's one of the best ideas I did I did

an order from door - last night they

have I think I mentioned us they have an

option for Tucker for contact for no

contact delivery you could just specify

him there anything and people will just

leave it at your door and they text you

and say hey it's at your door Trump

should stop commenting on the stock

market yeah well I think the president

has to talk about the financial markets

so I think he has to I'm not sure he's

he's an alien's they at least on that

topic you know I don't know how many

quarters of negative growth because

there's going to be a whole lot of pent

up demand but there will be you know

there may be some businesses that take

longer to come back online and

restaurants might be among them so yeah

I can see why it could last two quarters

but certainly by the second quarter it's

gonna be humming long all right I need

to go and I will talk to you later