Episode 860 Scott Adams - Relaxing You Before Bed
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Hey everybody, how are you? It's time for a bonus edition of Coffee with Scott Adams without the coffee, because it's not coffee time, it's bedtime. And while you need to drift off to sleep, there's a little bit more of me. Apparently I mean ostensibly, but here you are, here we are.
View segment →I just wanted to remind you that the finest minds in the universe are working on solving your coronavirus problem. And I think we've turned the corner. Not in terms of people who get it or people who sadly pass. There's going to be a little more of that. But here's my prediction: when we get on the…
View segment →And by the way, I hope that you enjoy the fact that I didn't do my second afternoon Periscope to conflict with Tucker. I think Tucker has gone from talk show host or whatever he calls himself to national treasure. And he's one of the most productive people in the business. Not just productive in ter…
View segment →Somebody says, is my brother Mike here? Mike, are you here? Your brother's looking for you. Well, LA is locked down. Yes. How many of you, I almost hate to ask this, but how many of you are enjoying the lockdown? Be honest. Because it's a weird kind of emergency. Nobody enjoyed World War II. Everybo…
View segment →You know, I actually thought it would be a lot worse than it is. But largely because I decided that part of my objective for the lockdown is that I would work on my fitness. And that's been really good. I feel healthier than I think I've felt in years. And it's because I've made my fitness my job. I…
View segment →So anyway, somebody says I missed the stores and restaurants and bars. You know, there's never been anything quite like what we're experiencing. Just nothing like it. Certainly if you lived through 9/11 you saw the country come together as one. But the weird part about that is that by the time we ca…
View segment →I'll tell you one thing that I'm feeling at this point. In the optimistic case, our government and our public can keep our small businesses hanging on. And it's really a case of hanging on. Because I'm pretty committed, and I'm sure there are other people who didn't lose their income during this tim…
View segment →Now here's a thought experiment. I understand it's actually complicated for the government to give people money, right? It's sort of complicated because I guess there are lots of agencies involved and there's a big machinery of government at everything. And so since we're in an emergency, I thought,…
View segment →How many of you know somebody or know somebody who knows somebody who actually has the coronavirus? Because let me warn you about what's coming in case you're not ready for this. So aside from the obvious fact that there will be more infections, the next few weeks are gonna get ugly. There's just no…
View segment →What is your thoughts on the Trump UBI? You know, I haven't looked at the details. I'll look at them in the morning before I Periscope. But my understanding is he's getting praise from, it's almost impossible even like barely comes out of my mouth, but Ilhan Omar I think and Pressley praised him too…
View segment →Yeah. Are you ready for that? Are you ready for, you know, I don't want to be over-optimistic and get people's hopes up. But I feel like the person who is the most optimistic is also going to be the most right, given what we've just learned in the last 48 hours about the depths of human, or the heig…
View segment →All right, uh, turns out I didn't take any calls and I'm gonna have to go in a moment. But I'll let you know. What about the stock market? So I don't make stock or financial advice except diversification. But I'll make this comment. What kind of investments are people likely to make once they feel t…
View segment →Gotta go. My door is here. Helping the local community. Talk to you later.
View segment →Hey everybody, how are you? It's time for a bonus edition of Coffee with Scott Adams without the coffee, because it's not coffee time, it's bedtime. And while you need to drift off to sleep, there's a little bit more of me. Apparently I mean ostensibly, but here you are, here we are.
I just wanted to remind you that the finest minds in the universe are working on solving your coronavirus problem. And I think we've turned the corner. Not in terms of people who get it or people who sadly pass. There's going to be a little more of that. But here's my prediction: when we get on the other end of this, we are going to be amazed at how well we did.
The things that people are going to learn, and they're going to learn them pretty quickly, is that saying something should have been done differently in the fog of war is not sure it's the thing. What does matter is whether you quickly correct. And we've seen our government and our citizens try, try, try, and quickly correct. And the corrections have been stunning.
I think the first try, the first attitude, the first guess, the first hunch, the first instinct, it's sort of luck, sort of guessing. In any situation, you always have a variety of opinions. Somebody's gonna be right because you have a variety. If you have people who say yes and people who say no, well, it's gonna go one way or the other. So I think we should be generous with how things start. But probably in the end we're going to be very proud about how things end.
And by the way, I hope that you enjoy the fact that I didn't do my second afternoon Periscope to conflict with Tucker. I think Tucker has gone from talk show host or whatever he calls himself to national treasure. And he's one of the most productive people in the business. Not just productive in terms of producing content, he does a lot of that too, but productive in terms of his content makes a difference in a way that it seems like other hosts wish they could be doing. So he was quite impactful and has been quite a patriot, if I may say, especially with this coronavirus coverage.
Somebody says, is my brother Mike here? Mike, are you here? Your brother's looking for you. Well, LA is locked down. Yes. How many of you, I almost hate to ask this, but how many of you are enjoying the lockdown? Be honest. Because it's a weird kind of emergency. Nobody enjoyed World War II. Everybody was affected in such a bad way that nobody ever had a good day for a long time. But the weird thing about this is being forced to stay home and work less and eat the food they hoarded. It's not the worst thing in the world.
You know, I actually thought it would be a lot worse than it is. But largely because I decided that part of my objective for the lockdown is that I would work on my fitness. And that's been really good. I feel healthier than I think I've felt in years. And it's because I've made my fitness my job. It's one thing to say, well, you know, I've got my priorities and I'm gonna try to work in a little eating right and exercising and stuff. That's most people's normal attitude. But as soon as this coronavirus looked like the real thing, I said to myself, well, I'm not gonna go easy. If the coronavirus is coming for me, I'm not gonna make it easy. I'm gonna be so immunity hardened by my own actions. First of all, I'm gonna feel a sense of doing something. And we humans need to do something. If you're in a bad situation, the best thing you can do is find something productive you can do. It's the doing that makes you feel better.
So anyway, somebody says I missed the stores and restaurants and bars. You know, there's never been anything quite like what we're experiencing. Just nothing like it. Certainly if you lived through 9/11 you saw the country come together as one. But the weird part about that is that by the time we came together, the damage was done. There was still a war that we can debate forever, two wars that we can debate forever. But it wasn't quite this. We've never seen the problem coming toward us. Well, now it's a close quarters fight at this point. But we've never all focused on solving this problem, the entire world simultaneously at once. And no matter how many times I say that, I feel like I need to keep pointing that out because this is one of the most remarkable experiences in humanity.
I mean, there's a nonzero chance that on the other end of this we can turn the next pandemic into two weeks of home vacation. Because think about how much we are learning from this pandemic. Let me really think about it. All the things we've learned. Because a lot of these meds have such high chances of working that even if one of the ones that they're talking about isn't the one, you still got several of them that look pretty promising. And several vaccinations. And we've got detection kits. A year from now our ability to instantly ramp up ventilators and detection kits and set up roadblocks and shut down the public and say, what, two week vacation everybody, send out some checks. We're gonna have a little framework built after this so that the next pandemic, and apparently the experts say you're always gonna get one, the next one could turn out to be a lot closer to the common cold if we're as smart as we can be about detecting and nipping it in the bud. So that's good news.
I'll tell you one thing that I'm feeling at this point. In the optimistic case, our government and our public can keep our small businesses hanging on. And it's really a case of hanging on. Because I'm pretty committed, and I'm sure there are other people who didn't lose their income during this time. There are a number of people who won't lose their income. And for them they have a lot of pent up spending. Not just because they want to get back in there, but because they'll actually literally have more money. One of the weird things about this is that I'm not spending as much money as I would. I think most people would be the same. So a lot of people are gonna have a little extra cash. And there will be a call, probably from the government, probably from President Trump, probably from friends and neighbors, to hit the local stores hard.
So whenever we get the green light, consumers are going to come back with both kindness and gratitude in a big way. Because remember, the small businesses didn't ask to close. They're willing to do it for the good of the republic because it's required. But I think the people who did well, in other words the people who didn't lose their income in this and actually maybe saved some money, I think they're gonna come back hard just the moment it's safe. And maybe it's not as simple as that. Maybe phase one will be the small businesses can open but they've got to stagger customers and seat people ten feet apart and stuff. So there might be some other phases. But there's a whole lot of spending coming your way, small businesses. I'm just gonna be peppering my little town with as much business as I can. And I think most people will do the same.
Now here's a thought experiment. I understand it's actually complicated for the government to give people money, right? It's sort of complicated because I guess there are lots of agencies involved and there's a big machinery of government at everything. And so since we're in an emergency, I thought, well, how could you shortcut that? What would be one way you could shortcut figuring out who to pay and how to pay and all that? Well, it seems like one way would be just to give everybody money.
Now you say to yourself, well Scott, that's not going to work because you'd be giving rich people money and driving up the debt and they don't need it. Why don't you be a little smarter and figure out who deserves it and doesn't deserve it? But here's the thought experiment part of it. In normal times, in a non-emergency time, you would expect a lot of bad behavior. So if somebody who didn't need the money and knew they didn't need the money got a check for a thousand dollars, would they keep it? In normal times they'd say, yeah, I paid a lot of taxes, I'm just gonna keep it. Yay, I got a thousand dollars.
But suppose the government says we don't have time to mess around, everybody's gonna get a check for a thousand dollars. This is just a thought experiment, nothing like this is gonna happen and I'm not really suggesting it, but it's a thought experiment to help you feel the situation, to read the room if you will. How many rich people would keep the money in normal times? Probably quite a few. They'd say, hey, I paid my taxes, I'll take your thousand dollars, thank you very much.
But suppose the government said we don't have time to sort this out. If you get a check and you don't need it, here's where to give it back. Here's where to give it to some agency or deposit it somewhere. How many rich people would automatically, without blinking, and even people not rich and even people who are not even doing that well, just say, you know, somebody else needs my thousand dollars. I didn't earn it. I'd rather get this small business going so I'll go give this to my local restaurant or something. How many people just wouldn't keep it? I don't know. It's an open question. Because whatever is happening now in the world, and certainly you can feel it, there's just something in the air that's connecting us all in a way that's never happened. I think it would be like a 98 percent automatic compliance. People would just look at themselves and say no, I think somebody needs it more than I do. Boom. I think it's just a guess. You can't really take a chance on that working. But maybe you could sort of say if you're doing well, pay it back or pay it forward or something of that nature.
How many of you know somebody or know somebody who knows somebody who actually has the coronavirus? Because let me warn you about what's coming in case you're not ready for this. So aside from the obvious fact that there will be more infections, the next few weeks are gonna get ugly. There's just no way around it. But then maybe in two weeks or so you're gonna see some fairly dramatic flattening of the curve. And then we'll be on top of it and wrestle it to the ground. I think it may take a while, but I think two weeks is sort of where you should look for a guaranteed it's getting worse. But after that I think there's a reason to believe we might be able to be on top of it. That's just my personal opinion. There's nobody official said anything nearly that optimistic.
Now below me, let me suggest this. If you could imagine two hypothetical people who were trying to predict how things would go from the very beginning, and one of them was an optimist about human ability and one was a pessimist who just said this virus is gonna get us all, which one of them would have been more right? Now the pessimist would have been more right at the start. It caught us off guard and oh man it's bad. So I won't say alarmist because they'd be right. You're not an alarmist if you're right. So the people who had a dark opinion of what was coming turned out to be dead right.
But from the point that humanity organized, it happened very quickly. The smartest people are the ones who predict that we beat the expectations. Because any sense, your common sense of how long things take is completely influenced by the normal world. And we're not in it anymore. We're just not in a world of friction. We're not in a world where if you say I need this to battle the coronavirus, whoever you're talking to says no. In the real world you usually get no almost every time. If you're trying to sell and you get more nos than yeses. So we went from a world of mostly no to almost overnight a world of mostly yes. And how can I help? And now that I've helped, can I help you more? And is there anything else I can do? Can I volunteer? Can I put some muscle into this? Can I put some money into it? You've never seen anything like this. It's remarkable.
I love to believe that some of this is permanent. Maybe a little bit. Maybe the memory of it. Or at least for a generation it could shape us. And I'm looking into the comments here. So here's what I wanted to warn you about. You can get a little sense of it in the comments. You know the Kevin Bacon game where everybody is six degrees of separation from everybody else? Well the Kevin Bacon effect is gonna start hitting you hard. So already I can tell you in my life I know somebody who knows somebody who got it. And I know somebody who got it, probably got it. So already the Kevin Bacon effect has hit me once directly and once a couple of levels removed but close to home.
You're all going to be Kevin Baconed to death. But keep in mind that this is a mathematical sort of illusion. The whole reason the Kevin Bacon game is so fascinating is that your common sense doesn't tell you that you could be just a few jumps away from so many famous people. And that illusion is gonna be smacking us around for a couple weeks because you're gonna hear about people all the time that you have one or two or three jumps away from. And it's going to start to feel scary because that feels close. But just keep in mind it's real easy to be a few levels away from somebody. So it's sort of an objects in the mirror appear closer than they are situation.
So this is my warning. It will feel a lot worse than it is for the next couple weeks. But it will also be worse than it is. So it's gonna be worse in terms of the number of people who have a problem with the virus. There's also going to look worse than that. So just adjust it in your mind to how much it actually is versus how much it feels like it is because you've heard of six Kevin Bacon people you know that they got it this week. Just that's just something's coming.
What is your thoughts on the Trump UBI? You know, I haven't looked at the details. I'll look at them in the morning before I Periscope. But my understanding is he's getting praise from, it's almost impossible even like barely comes out of my mouth, but Ilhan Omar I think and Pressley praised him too for leadership. And I think that has a whole lot to do with the fact that I think he went big.
So here's something, I don't want to be too political but I think it's always good if you can learn something. So with the learning in mind let me talk about some things. Normally I just want to put the politics aside but if you can learn something that's worth it. I don't think you can lose your reelection by going too hard at everything on the coronavirus. So if the best, kindest, most empathetic and smart people said I think we should give each person X amount, the smartest thing for the president to do, given remember nobody knows the right amount, right? There's nobody smart enough who knows that it's 1,000 or 2,000 or 1,500. Nobody knows the right amount. So there's a lot of judgment and guessing in that.
All right, so within that, I'm gonna have to go in a moment. So within that judgment, yeah damn it I forgot what I was going to say. I was gonna say that you don't really know what you're, if your president's doing a great job or not. But here's some things that you can count on. If the president exceeds what even the good people imagined was the right amount, and I think that would have been a smart thing to do since nobody knows the right amount. Once the people on the left have said darn it we've got to get $1,000 into everybody's hands, and I don't know if this is what happened, I'll check on this tomorrow, but if the president said $1,000, try 3,000, I have no idea if those numbers are close. But the point is if the president went bigger than even the Democrats were asking, that was exactly the right play. Because nobody knows where to go. Nobody knows the right amount. But if he goes smaller everybody's gonna blame you. If you go bigger, what's the worst that could happen? If it doesn't work he's gonna say well I still went bigger than everybody said so it still looks like the smart move even if it doesn't work. And if you went small and it doesn't work, well then you really look like you did everything wrong. So the president has one smart play which just has the advantage of also being within the zone of what we imagine would be good for the country, which is just go big. Just go hard on everything. Drop every regulation you can. He's a maniac at dropping regulations. That's working. That's working well. Removing friction.
I think he's adopted the right war general tone of this. I think his optimism about how quickly we'll get back, it's gonna be closer than anybody else's guess.
Yeah. Are you ready for that? Are you ready for, you know, I don't want to be over-optimistic and get people's hopes up. But I feel like the person who is the most optimistic is also going to be the most right, given what we've just learned in the last 48 hours about the depths of human, or the heights I guess, of human ingenuity. What you have seen in the last just 48 hours is absolutely astounding in terms of what we learned, what we figured out, what we tried, what we know, what we can do, what we can build. And now it's a contest between the manufacturing might of the world and a virus who's duplicating itself virally. Who do you bet on? I wouldn't bet against people. We're pretty good at this.
All right, uh, turns out I didn't take any calls and I'm gonna have to go in a moment. But I'll let you know. What about the stock market? So I don't make stock or financial advice except diversification. But I'll make this comment. What kind of investments are people likely to make once they feel they can put money back into the market? What kind of investments will they do? Risky investments? Well some people will because they're risky. But what do you think? What do you think will be the bias or the trend? My guess is that the trend will be towards safety. And at least within safety within the stocks world, which means diversification, which means funds like a Fortune 500 fund. So my prediction, and this is not advice, this is just a prediction of what other people are gonna do, my prediction is that the funds will do great.
Gotta go. My door is here. Helping the local community. Talk to you later.
hey everybody how are you it's time for a bonus edition of coffee who's got abs without the coffee because it's not coffee time it's bedtime and why you need to drift off to sleep there's a little bit more of me apparently I mean sound cently but here you are here we are and I just wanted to remind you that the finest minds in the universe are working on solving your coronavirus problem and I think we've turned the corner not in terms of people who get it or people who sadly pass it's going to be a little more of that but here's my prediction when we get on the other end of this we are going to be amazed now how well we did the things that people are going to learn and they're going to learn them pretty quickly is that saying something should have been done differently in the fog of war not sure it's the thing what does matter is whether you you quickly correct and we've seen our government and our citizens try try try and quickly correct and the corrections have been stunning I think the first try is the first attitude the first guests the first hunch the first the first instinct it's sort of luck sort of guessing you know in any situation somebody's you always have a variety of opinions somebody's gonna be right because you have a variety if you have people to say yes and people to say no well it's gonna go one way or the other so I think we should be generous with how things start but probably in the end we're going to be very proud about how things end and by the way I hope that you enjoy the fact that I didn't do my second afternoon periscope to conflict with Tucker I think Tucker has has gone from you know talk show host or whatever he calls himself to national treasure and he's one of the most productive people in the business not just productive in terms of producing content he does a lot of that too but productive in terms of his content makes a difference in a way that it seems like other hosts you know wish they could be doing so he was quite impactful and has been quite a I think quite a quite a patreon if I may say especially with this coronavirus coverage etc somebody says is my brother Mike here Mike are you here your brother's looking for you well la is locked down yes how many of you I almost hate to ask this but how many of you are enjoying the lockdown be honest because it's a weird kind of emergency you know nobody enjoyed you know World War two you probably everybody was affected in such a bad way that nobody ever had a good day for a long time but the weird thing about this is being forced to stay home and work less and and eat the food they hoarded it's not the worst thing in the world you know I actually thought it would be a lot worse than it is but largely because I I decided that part of my objective for the lockdown is that I would work on my fitness and and that's been really real really good I feel healthier than I think I've felt in years and it's because I've made my fitness my job you know it's one thing to say well you know I got my priorities and I'm trying I'm gonna try to work in a little you know eating right and exercising and stuff that's most people's normal attitude but as soon as this coronavirus look like the real thing I said to myself well I'm not gonna go easy if the coronavirus is coming for me I'm not gonna make it easy yeah I'm gonna be so you know immunity hardened by my own actions I'm first of all I'm gonna feel a sense of you know doing something and and we humans need to do something you know if if you're if you're in a bad situation the most the best thing you can do is find something that's productive they can do it's the doing that that makes you feel better so anyway somebody says I missed the stores and restaurants and bars you know there's never been anything quite like well we're experiencing just nothing like it certainly if you lived through 9/11 you know you saw the country you know come together as one but the weird part about that is that by the time we came together the damage was done you know there was still a war that we can debate forever two wars that we can debate forever but it wasn't quite this we've never seen the problem coming toward us from you know well now it's a it's a close quarters fight at this point but we've never all focused on solving this problem the entire world simultaneous a once and no matter how many times I say that I feel like I he'd need to keep pointing that out because this is one of the most remarkable experiences in humanity I mean there's there's a nonzero chance that's on the other end of this we can turn the next pandemic into a you know two weeks of home vacation because to think about much we were learning from this pandemic let me really think about it all the things we've learned because a lot of these these meds have such you know high chances of working that even if you know one of the ones that they're talking about isn't the one you still got several of them they look pretty promising and several vaccinations and we've got detection kits you know a year from now our ability to to instantly ramp up ventilators and detection kits and set up roadblocks and you know shut down the public and say what two-week vacation everybody send out some checks you know we're gonna have a little a little framework built after this so that the next pandemic and apparently the experts say you're always gonna get one the next one could turn out to be a lot closer to the common cold if we're as smart as we can be about you know detecting and nipping it in the bud so that's good news I'll tell you one thing that I'm feeling at this point you know in the optimistic case our government and our public can keep our small businesses hanging on in it's really a case of hanging on because you know I'm pretty committed and I'm sure there are other people who didn't lose their income during this time you know their number of people won't lose their income and for them they have a lot of pent up spending and you know not just because they they want to get back in there but because they'll actually literally have more money you know one of the weird things about this is that you know I'm not spending as much money as they would I think most people that would be the same so a lot of people are gonna have a little extra cash and there will be a call probably from the government probably from President Trump probably from friends and neighbors to to hit the local stores hard so whenever we get the you know the green light consumers are going to come back with both kindness and gratitude in a big way because remember the small businesses didn't ask to close you know I'm there willing to do it for the for the good of the Republican because it's you know required but I think the people who who did well you know in other words the people who didn't lose their income and in this and actually maybe save some money I think they're gonna come back hard just just the moment it's safe and maybe it's not as simple as that maybe maybe phase one will be the small businesses can open but they've got a stagger customers and see people ten feet apart and stuff so there might be some other phase but there's a there's a whole lot of spending coming your way small businesses I'm just gonna be peppering my little town with as much business as I can and I think most people will do the same now here's a thought experiment I understand it's actually complicated for the government to give people money right it's sort of complicated because I guess there are lots of agencies involved and you know there's a big machinery of government at everything and so since we're in emergency I thought well how could you shortcut that what would be one way you could shortcut figuring out who to pay and how to pay and all that well it seems like one way would be just to give everybody money now you say to yourself well Scott that's not going to work because you know you you'd be giving rich people money and driving up the debt and they don't need it you know why don't you be a little smarter and figure out who deserves ed doesn't deserve it but here's the thought experiment part of it in normal times in a non-emergency time you would expect a lot of bad behavior so if somebody who didn't need the money and knew they didn't need the money got a check for a thousand dollars would they keep it well normal times they say yeah I paid a lot of taxes I'm just gonna keep it yay I got a thousand dollars but suppose the government says we don't have time to mess around everybody's gonna get a check for thousand dollars this is just the thought experiment nothing like this is gonna happen and I'm not I'm not really suggesting it but it's a thought experiment to help you feel the situation you know to read the room if you will how many rich people would keep the money in normal times probably quite a few they'd say hey I paid my taxes I'll take your thousand dollars thank you very much but suppose the government said we don't have time to sort this out if you get a check and you don't need it here's where to give it back you know here's your to give it to some agency or deposited somewhere sauna summer how many rich people would automatically without blinking and even people not rich and even people who are not even doing now well just say you know somebody else needs my thousand dollars I didn't earn it I'd rather I'd rather get this small business going so I'll go give this to my local restaurant or something how many people just wouldn't keep it I don't know it's an open question because whatever is happening now in the world and certainly you can feel it there's just something in the air that's connecting us all in a way that's that's never happened I think I think it would be like a 98 percent automatic compliance people would just look at themselves and say no I think somebody needs it more than I do boom I think it's just just a guess I don't think you know you can't really take a chance on that working but so maybe you couldn't um sort of it says if you're doing well pay it back or pay a forward or or something of that nature yeah how many of you know somebody or know somebody who knows somebody who actually has the coronavirus because let me warn you about what's coming in case you're not ready for this so aside from the obvious fact that there will be more infections the next few weeks are gonna get ugly there's no there's just no way around it but then maybe in two weeks or so you're gonna see some fairly dramatic flattening of the curve and then we'll be on top of it and wrestle it to ground I think it may take a while but I think two weeks is sort of where you should look at for a guaranteed it's getting worse you know but after that I think there's a reason to believe we might be able to be on top of it that's just my personal opinion there's nobody official said anything nearly that optimistic now below me let me suggest this if if you could imagine two hypothetical people who were trying to predict how things would go from the very beginning and one of them was an optimist about human ability and one was a pessimist who just said a this virus is gonna get us all which one of them would have been more right now the the pessimist would have been more right that had caught us off guard and oh man it's bad so that so the I won't say alarmist because they'd be right you're not an alarmist if you're right so the people who had a you know a dark opinion of what was coming turned out to be dead right all right but from the point that humanity organized it happened very quickly the smartest people are the ones who predict that we beat the expectations because any sense you know your common sense of how long things take is completely influenced by the normal world and we're not in it anymore we're just not in a world of friction we're not in a world where if you say I need this to battle the coronavirus whoever you're talking to says no in the real world you usually get no almost you know every time you if you're trying to sell and you get more noise than yeses so we went from a world of mostly no to almost overnight a world of mostly yes and how can I help and now that I've helped can I help you more and there's is there anything else I can do can I volunteer and I put some muscle into this can I put some money into it you've never seen anything like this it's remarkable I love to believe the some of this is permanent maybe some maybe a little bit maybe the memory of it and or at least for a generation it could shape us and I I'm something looking into the comments here so here's what I wanted to warn you about you can get a little sense of it in the comments you know the Kevin Bacon game where everybody is six degrees of separation from everybody else well the Kevin Bacon effect is gonna start hitting you hard so already I can tell you in my life you know I know somebody who knows somebody who got it and I know somebody who got it probably got it so already the Kevin Bacon affect us at me one once directly and one a couple of levels removed but you know close to close to home you're all going to be Kevin Bacon to death but but keep in mind that that this is a mathematical sort of illusion the whole reason the Kevin Bacon game is so fascinating is that your common sense doesn't tell you that you could be just a few jumps away from so many famous people etc and and that illusion is gonna be smacking us around for a couple weeks because you're gonna hear about people all the time that you have one or two or three jumps away from and it's good to start scary because that feels close but just keep in mind it's real easy to be a few levels away from somebody so it's sort of a objects appear you know objects in the mirror appear closer than they are situation so this is my warning it will feel a lot worse than it is for the next couple weeks but it will also be worse than it is so it's gonna be worse in terms of the number of people who have a problem with the virus there's also going to look worse than that so just adjust it in your mind to how much it actually is versus the how much it feels like it because you've heard of six Kevin Bacon people you know that they got it this week just that's just something's coming what is your thoughts on the Trump ubi you know I haven't looked at the details I'll look at them in the morning before I periscope but my understanding is he's getting praise from it's almost impossible even like barely comes out of my mouth but Ilan Omar I think didn't Presley praise him too for leadership and I think that has a whole lot to do with the fact that I think he went big right so here's something you know I don't want to be too political but I think it's always good if you can learn something right so so with the learning in mind let me talk about some things normally I just want to put the politics aside but if you can learn something that's that's worth it I don't think you can lose your reelection by going too hard at everything and the coronavirus so if if the best you know kindest most empathetic and smart people said I think we should give you know each person X amount the smartest thing for the president to do given remember nobody knows the right amount right there's nobody smart enough who knows that it's 1,000 or 2,000 or 1,500 don't nobody knows the right amount so there's a lot of judgment and guessing in that all right so within that I'm gonna have to go in a moment so within that judgment yeah damn it I forgot what I was going to say I was gonna say that you you don't really know what you're you know if your presidents doing a great job or not but here's some things that you can count on if the president exceeds why even the good people imagined was the right amount and I think that would have been a smart thing to do since nobody knows the right amount once the people the left have said darn it we've got to get $1,000 into everybody's hands and I don't know if this is what happened I'll check on this tomorrow but if the president said $1,000 try 3,000 I have no idea if those numbers are in close but the point is if the president went bigger then even the Democrats were asking that was exactly the right play right because nobody knows where to go nobody knows the right amount but if he goes smaller everybody's gonna blame you if you go bigger what's the worst that could happen if it doesn't work he's gonna say well I still wouldn't bigger than everybody said so it still looks like the smart move even if it doesn't work and if and and if you went small and it doesn't work well then you really look like you did everything wrong so the president has one smart play which just has the advantage of also being within the zone of what we imagine would be good for the country which is just go big just go hard and everything drop every regulation you can he's a he's a maniac and dropping regulations that's working that's working well removing friction I think he's he's adopted the right you know the the war general tone of this I think his optimism about how quickly would get back it's gonna be closer than anybody else's gasps yeah are you ready for that are you ready for you know I don't want to be over-optimistic and get people's hopes up but I feel like the person who is the most optimistic is also going to be the most right given what we've just learned in the last 48 hours about the depths of human or the heights I guess of human ingenuity what you have seen in the last just 48 hours is absolutely astounding in terms of what we what we learned what we figured out what we tried what we know what we can do what we can build and now it's a contest between the manufacturing might of the world and a virus who's duplicating itself viral who do you bet on I wouldn't bet against people we're pretty good at this all right uh turns out I didn't take any calls and I'm gonna have to go in a moment but I'll let you know what about the stock market so I don't make stock or financial advice except diversification but I'll make this comment what kind of investments are people likely to make once they feel they can put money back into the market what kind of investments will they do risky investments well some people will cuz their risky but what do you think well we did what do you think will be the the bias or the trend my guess is that the trend will be towards safety and at least within safety within the stocks world which means diversification which means funds like a like a fortune 500 fund so my prediction and this is not advice this is just a prediction of what other people are gonna do right my prediction is that the funds will do great gotta go my door - is here helping the local community talk to you later
[Music]
hey everybody how are you it's time for
a bonus edition of coffee who's got abs
without the coffee because it's not
coffee time it's bedtime
and why you need to drift off to sleep
there's a little bit more of me
apparently
I mean sound cently but here you are
here we are and I just wanted to remind
you that the finest minds in the
universe are working on solving your
coronavirus problem and I think we've
turned the corner not in terms of people
who get it or people who sadly pass it's
going to be a little more of that but
here's my prediction when we get on the
other end of this we are going to be
amazed now how well we did the things
that people are going to learn and
they're going to learn them pretty
quickly is that saying something should
have been done differently in the fog of
war not sure it's the thing what does
matter is whether you you quickly
correct and we've seen our government
and our citizens try try try and quickly
correct and the corrections have been
stunning I think the first try is the
first attitude the first guests the
first hunch the first the first instinct
it's sort of luck sort of guessing you
know in any situation somebody's you
always have a variety of opinions
somebody's gonna be right because you
have a variety if you have people to say
yes and people to say no well it's gonna
go one way or the other so I think we
should be generous with how things start
but
probably in the end we're going to be
very proud about how things end and by
the way I hope that you enjoy the fact
that I didn't do my second afternoon
periscope to conflict with Tucker
I think Tucker has has gone from you
know talk show host or whatever he calls
himself to national treasure and he's
one of the most productive people in the
business not just productive in terms of
producing content he does a lot of that
too but productive in terms of his
content makes a difference in a way that
it seems like other hosts you know wish
they could be doing so he was quite
impactful and has been quite a I think
quite a quite a patreon if I may say
especially with this coronavirus
coverage etc somebody says is my brother
Mike here Mike
are you here your brother's looking for
you well la is locked down yes how many
of you I almost hate to ask this but how
many of you are enjoying the lockdown be
honest because it's a weird kind of
emergency you know nobody enjoyed you
know World War two you probably
everybody was affected in such a bad way
that nobody ever had a good day for a
long time but the weird thing about this
is being forced to stay home and work
less and and eat the food they hoarded
it's not the worst thing in the world
you know I actually thought it would be
a lot worse than it is but largely
because I I decided that part of my
objective for the lockdown is that I
would work on my fitness and and that's
been really real
really good I feel healthier than I
think I've felt in years and it's
because I've made my fitness my job you
know it's one thing to say well you know
I got my priorities and I'm trying I'm
gonna try to work in a little you know
eating right and exercising and stuff
that's most people's normal attitude but
as soon as this coronavirus look like
the real thing I said to myself well I'm
not gonna go easy
if the coronavirus is coming for me I'm
not gonna make it easy yeah I'm gonna be
so you know immunity hardened by my own
actions I'm first of all I'm gonna feel
a sense of you know doing something and
and we humans need to do something you
know if if you're if you're in a bad
situation the most the best thing you
can do is find something that's
productive they can do it's the doing
that that makes you feel better
so anyway somebody says I missed the
stores and restaurants and bars you know
there's never been anything quite like
well we're experiencing just nothing
like it certainly if you lived through
9/11 you know you saw the country you
know come together as one but the weird
part about that is that by the time we
came together the damage was done you
know there was still a war that we can
debate forever two wars that we can
debate forever but it wasn't quite this
we've never seen the problem coming
toward us from you know well now it's a
it's a close quarters fight at this
point but we've never all focused on
solving this problem the entire world
simultaneous a once and no matter how
many times I say that I feel like I he'd
need to keep pointing that out because
this is one of the most remarkable
experiences in humanity I mean there's
there's a nonzero chance that's on the
other end of this we can turn the next
pandemic into a you know two weeks of
home vacation because to think about
much we were learning from this pandemic
let me really think about it all the
things we've learned because a lot of
these these meds have such you know high
chances of working that even if you know
one of the ones that they're talking
about isn't the one you still got
several of them they look pretty
promising and several vaccinations and
we've got detection kits you know a year
from now our ability to to instantly
ramp up ventilators and detection kits
and set up roadblocks and you know shut
down the public and say what two-week
vacation everybody send out some checks
you know we're gonna have a little a
little framework built after this so
that the next pandemic and apparently
the experts say you're always gonna get
one the next one could turn out to be a
lot closer to the common cold if we're
as smart as we can be about you know
detecting and nipping it in the bud so
that's good news I'll tell you one thing
that I'm feeling at this point you know
in the optimistic case our government
and our public can keep our small
businesses hanging on in it's really a
case of hanging on because you know I'm
pretty committed and I'm sure there are
other people who didn't lose their
income during this time you know their
number of people won't lose their income
and for them they have a lot of pent up
spending and you know not just because
they they want to get back in there but
because they'll actually literally have
more money you know one of the weird
things about this is that you know I'm
not spending as much money as they would
I think most people that would be the
same so a lot of people are gonna have a
little extra cash and there will be a
call probably from the government
probably from President Trump probably
from friends and neighbors to to hit the
local stores hard so whenever we get the
you know the green light consumers are
going to come back
with both kindness and gratitude in a
big way because remember the small
businesses didn't ask to close you know
I'm there willing to do it for the for
the good of the Republican because it's
you know required but I think the people
who who did well you know in other words
the people who didn't lose their income
and in this and actually maybe save some
money I think they're gonna come back
hard just just the moment it's safe and
maybe it's not as simple as that maybe
maybe phase one will be the small
businesses can open but they've got a
stagger customers and see people ten
feet apart and stuff so there might be
some other phase but there's a there's a
whole lot of spending coming your way
small businesses I'm just gonna be
peppering my little town with as much
business as I can and I think most
people will do the same now here's a
thought experiment
I understand it's actually complicated
for the government to give people money
right it's sort of complicated because I
guess there are lots of agencies
involved and you know there's a big
machinery of government at everything
and so since we're in emergency I
thought well how could you shortcut that
what would be one way you could shortcut
figuring out who to pay and how to pay
and all that well it seems like one way
would be just to give everybody money
now you say to yourself well Scott
that's not going to work because you
know you you'd be giving rich people
money and driving up the debt and they
don't need it you know why don't you be
a little smarter and figure out who
deserves ed doesn't deserve it but
here's the thought experiment part of it
in normal times in a non-emergency time
you would expect a lot of bad behavior
so if somebody who didn't need the money
and knew they didn't need the money
got a check for a thousand dollars would
they keep it well normal times they say
yeah I paid a lot of taxes I'm just
gonna keep it yay
I got a thousand dollars but suppose the
government says we don't have time to
mess around everybody's gonna get a
check for
thousand dollars this is just the
thought experiment nothing like this is
gonna happen and I'm not I'm not really
suggesting it but it's a thought
experiment to help you feel the
situation you know to read the room if
you will
how many rich people would keep the
money in normal times probably quite a
few they'd say hey I paid my taxes I'll
take your thousand dollars thank you
very much but suppose the government
said we don't have time to sort this out
if you get a check and you don't need it
here's where to give it back you know
here's your to give it to some agency or
deposited somewhere sauna summer how
many rich people would automatically
without blinking and even people not
rich and even people who are not even
doing now well just say you know
somebody else needs my thousand dollars
I didn't earn it I'd rather I'd rather
get this small business going so I'll go
give this to my local restaurant or
something how many people just wouldn't
keep it I don't know it's an open
question because whatever is happening
now in the world and certainly you can
feel it there's just something in the
air that's connecting us all in a way
that's that's never happened I think I
think it would be like a 98 percent
automatic compliance people would just
look at themselves and say no I think
somebody needs it more than I do
boom I think it's just just a guess I
don't think you know you can't really
take a chance on that working but so
maybe you couldn't um sort of it says if
you're doing well
pay it back or pay a forward or or
something of that nature yeah
how many of you know somebody or know
somebody who knows somebody who actually
has the coronavirus because let me warn
you about what's coming in case you're
not ready for this
so aside from the obvious fact that
there will be more infections the next
few weeks are gonna get ugly there's no
there's just no way around it
but then maybe in two weeks or so you're
gonna see some fairly dramatic
flattening of the curve and then we'll
be on top of it and wrestle it to ground
I think it may take a while
but I think two weeks is sort of where
you should look at for a guaranteed it's
getting worse you know but after that I
think there's a reason to believe we
might be able to be on top of it that's
just my personal opinion there's nobody
official said anything nearly that
optimistic now below me let me suggest
this if if you could imagine two
hypothetical people who were trying to
predict how things would go from the
very beginning and one of them was an
optimist about human ability and one was
a pessimist who just said a this virus
is gonna get us all which one of them
would have been more right now the the
pessimist would have been more right
that had caught us off guard and oh man
it's bad so that so the I won't say
alarmist because they'd be right you're
not an alarmist if you're right so the
people who had a you know a dark opinion
of what was coming
turned out to be dead right all right
but from the point that humanity
organized it happened very quickly the
smartest people are the ones who predict
that we beat the expectations because
any sense you know your common sense of
how long things take is completely
influenced by the normal world and we're
not in it anymore we're just not in a
world of friction we're not in a world
where if you say I need this to battle
the coronavirus whoever you're talking
to says no in the real world you usually
get no almost you know every time you if
you're trying to sell and you get more
noise than yeses so we went from a world
of mostly no to almost overnight a world
of mostly yes and how can I help and now
that I've helped can I help you more and
there's is there anything else I can do
can I volunteer and I put some muscle
into this can I put some money into it
you've never seen anything like this
it's remarkable I love to believe the
some of this is permanent maybe some
maybe a little bit maybe the memory of
it and or at least for a generation it
could shape us and I I'm something
looking into the comments here so here's
what I wanted to warn you about you can
get a little sense of it in the comments
you know the Kevin Bacon game where
everybody is six degrees of separation
from everybody else
well the Kevin Bacon effect is gonna
start hitting you hard so already I can
tell you in my life you know I know
somebody who knows somebody who got it
and I know somebody who got it
probably got it so already the Kevin
Bacon affect us at me one once directly
and one a couple of levels removed but
you know close to close to home you're
all going to be Kevin Bacon to death but
but keep in mind that that this is a
mathematical sort of illusion the whole
reason the Kevin Bacon game is so
fascinating is that your common sense
doesn't tell you that you could be just
a few jumps away from so many famous
people etc and and that illusion is
gonna be smacking us around for a couple
weeks because you're gonna hear about
people all the time that you have one or
two or three jumps away from and it's
good to start scary because that feels
close but just keep in mind it's real
easy to be a few levels away from
somebody so it's sort of a objects
appear you know objects in the mirror
appear closer than they are situation so
this is my warning
it will feel a lot worse than it is for
the next couple weeks but it will also
be worse than it is so it's gonna be
worse in terms of the number of people
who have a problem with the virus
there's also going to look worse than
that so just adjust it in your mind to
how much it actually is versus the how
much it feels like it because you've
heard of six Kevin Bacon people you know
that they got it this week
just that's just something's coming what
is your thoughts on the Trump ubi you
know I haven't looked at the details
I'll look at them in the morning before
I periscope but my understanding is he's
getting praise from it's almost
impossible even like barely comes out of
my mouth but Ilan Omar I think didn't
Presley praise him too for leadership
and I think that has a whole lot to do
with the fact that I think he went big
right so here's something you know I
don't want to be too political but I
think it's always good if you can learn
something right so so with the learning
in mind let me talk about some things
normally I just want to put the politics
aside but if you can learn something
that's that's worth it I don't think you
can lose your reelection by going too
hard at everything and the coronavirus
so if if the best you know kindest most
empathetic and smart people said I think
we should give you know each person X
amount the smartest thing for the
president to do given remember nobody
knows the right amount right there's
nobody smart enough who knows that it's
1,000 or 2,000 or 1,500 don't nobody
knows the right amount so there's a lot
of judgment and guessing in that all
right so within that I'm gonna have to
go in a moment so within that judgment
yeah damn it I forgot what I was going
to say I was gonna say that you you
don't really know what you're you know
if your presidents doing a great job or
not but here's some things that you can
count on if the president exceeds why
even the good people imagined was the
right amount and I think that would have
been a smart thing to do
since nobody knows the right amount once
the people
the left have said darn it we've got to
get $1,000 into everybody's hands and I
don't know if this is what happened I'll
check on this tomorrow but if the
president said $1,000 try 3,000 I have
no idea if those numbers are in close
but the point is if the president went
bigger then even the Democrats were
asking that was exactly the right play
right because nobody knows where to go
nobody knows the right amount but if he
goes smaller everybody's gonna blame you
if you go bigger what's the worst that
could happen if it doesn't work he's
gonna say well I still wouldn't bigger
than everybody said so it still looks
like the smart move even if it doesn't
work and if and and if you went small
and it doesn't work well then you really
look like you did everything wrong so
the president has one smart play which
just has the advantage of also being
within the zone of what we imagine would
be good for the country which is just go
big just go hard and everything drop
every regulation you can he's a he's a
maniac and dropping regulations that's
working that's working well removing
friction I think he's he's adopted the
right you know the the war general tone
of this I think his optimism about how
quickly would get back it's gonna be
closer than anybody else's gasps yeah
are you ready for that are you ready for
you know I don't want to be
over-optimistic and get people's hopes
up but I feel like the person who is the
most optimistic is also going to be the
most right given what we've just learned
in the last 48 hours about the depths of
human or the heights I guess of human
ingenuity what you have seen in the last
just 48 hours is absolutely astounding
in terms of what we what we learned what
we figured out what we tried what we
know what we can do what we can build
and now it's a contest between the
manufacturing might of the world and a
virus who's duplicating itself viral
who do you bet on I wouldn't bet against
people we're pretty good at this all
right uh turns out I didn't take any
calls and I'm gonna have to go in a
moment
but I'll let you know what about the
stock market so I don't make stock or
financial advice except diversification
but I'll make this comment what kind of
investments are people likely to make
once they feel they can put money back
into the market what kind of investments
will they do risky investments well some
people will cuz their risky but what do
you think well we did what do you think
will be the the bias or the trend my
guess is that the trend will be towards
safety and at least within safety within
the stocks world which means
diversification which means funds like a
like a fortune 500 fund so my prediction
and this is not advice this is just a
prediction of what other people are
gonna do right my prediction is that the
funds will do great gotta go my door -
is here helping the local community talk
to you later
