Coffee With Scott Adams — Knowledge Archive May 24, 2026
Scott Adams Philosophy Archive
Search ideas
Topics Decision Making

Mindset

Decision Making

Frameworks for making better decisions under uncertainty

552 episodes 645 segments

Featured segments

MainContent

But when I look at it, I think, yeah, that's we just had to do it while we still could. You don't want the cartels getting bigger and you didn't want Venezuela to be more of a hub of anti-Americanism. So it was time. Anyway, I'm still fascinated by the impact it will have on other countries. I think it makes it more likely that Iran will fall. I don't know that it's most likely. Iran might be able to get through their current problems. But in terms of will it have an impact? Probably. It probably has an impact on their psychology. If you were the Iranian protesters, what would you want to hear? You would want to hear that the US just toppled the country and then you'd think, wait a minute, Trump just said he'd do that for us. So that would theoretically embolden the protesters in Iran. In a similar way, there are reports now that the Ayatollah and maybe 20 of his top people and family are planning maybe as their escape plan to go to Russia if everything falls. Now remember, fog of war, propaganda, CIA. What are the odds that that's a real report? Well, now I wouldn't say we know what his plans are. Maybe we do. So there's some doubt there. But if again if you're a protester and you hear a report that the leader has picked an escape plan, wouldn't you try a little harder because you say to yourself, "Wait a minute, he's got an escape plan. Maybe we're almost at the breaking point." So I see that as the report about him leaving for Russia. I see that as maybe true, might be true, but it's just as likely that the story is planted because planting that story would be very good for the protesters. Anyway, I guess Greenland is getting nervous and Greenland is nervous because they say that quote, let's see, this is a prime minister of Denmark and said recently the United States has no right to annex one of the three countries in the Commonwealth. So Greenland being one of the three countries. Now do you think it's about rights? Do you think that Trump would not move against Greenland because he doesn't have the right? This goes back to Eric Weinstein's comment that there might not be international law at all. It's really just about power. So I think it's hilarious that they're using rights as any kind of defense. And by the way, as far as I know the US would be happy just having some arrangement that gives us some kind of control but not necessarily annexing it. But Greenland, they're worried. So I guess Trump recently posted a chart that showed that 72% of US Somali households are on welfare. So that's the kind of report that makes it easier to deport a lot of people. So I don't know if that data is true or not, but if you hear that data, you're like, "Oh, you know, even I'm against immigration now," even if you were in favor of it before. So I would imagine that even Democrats would have a problem with three-quarters of the Somali households being on welfare they're paying for and welfare that might go broke. Sip. As I often tell you, I like it when people who know more than I do are sort of on the same opinion as me. And here's a case in point. So General Flynn just posted that Trump in his interrogation of Maduro should hone in on stolen elections. Now do you remember Sidney Powell and the Kraken and her wild claims? It seemed like wild claims at the time that Venezuela was somehow involved in rigging the machines and rigging the election. And that became so unbelievable to the public that she was sort of disgraced temporarily. Temporarily. But now at least in my bubble I'm hearing reports that all the Kraken was true. Now the Kraken was the idea that Venezuela was involved in developing election machines that we used and other countries used. First they developed it for their own elections to rig them. This is the claim. And then the US used them to rig our elections in 2020. And that all of that is known because of a particular whistleblower. So now there's a whistleblower that keeps popping up and the whistleblower is this Leamsy Salazar and I guess he had at some point been in the Venezuelan operation or at least he knew about the operation and that it was in fact a big op with machines that rigged elections. Now that's what's happening in your bubble too, right? Most of you are in the same bubble I am. But there's some pushback and the pushback is that there's exactly one whistleblower and apparently there is reason not to believe him. Now I'm not the expert on this but as Stephen McIntyre pointed out — who's no expert on this domain but he's an expert on other domains — but he points out that there's reason to not believe the whistleblower and there's no physical evidence. And so I will caution you again that although it seems very believable to me and I've listened to Patrick Byrne's full explanation, you should listen to him if you want more on that. So in my bubble it feels almost proven that the Venezuelan connection to the machines was important, but it really isn't fully proven. So I warn you not to get too excited. But then when I see General Flynn, who obviously knows more about this world than I do, say that they should hone in on the stolen elections angle, I say to myself, well, okay, now I'm taking it seriously, but be careful. We are below the level of confirmed reporting. We're not up to confirmed. We're up to "whoa, that looks like it could be real," which is bad enough. Well, I believe this has now been confirmed that Governor Tim Walz is going to drop his reelection bid. Probably because of all the Somali probe reports. Now when I see that, I say to myself, my God, that must be the white supremacy that got him. You know, he's always complaining about the white supremacy. So I think that's what's happening here. The white supremacists, who we don't know anything about, have conspired to make it impossible for him to run for reelection. But independent reporter, I think that's the right tag, Nick Sortor, is already outside of, or at least he was filming outside of Tim Walz's residence, and he wrote this on his post on X. This is the funniest thing that you could hear today. So Nick Sortor says, "Leaking. We are live outside Tim Walz's residence, anxiously awaiting the smoke to rise from the governor's mansion's chimney, signaling a new has been elected." Signaling a new has

Episode 3063 CWSA 01/05/26

MainContent

My brain will last forever. You know, the weirdest thing about being in the hospital is that I went cold turkey on marijuana, obviously. So that for a week or so I completely am off marijuana and I haven't really noticed, you know, because you're usually drugged up on painkillers anyway at the moment. I have some baseline morphine but I've reduced my painkillers substantially, which might mean the radiation worked at least to decrease pain. Don't know yet. It's too early. China made some breakthrough in EV batteries. Okay, there are a lot of stories about battery breakthroughs, but until I see it in a Tesla, I don't believe it. According to Tech Explorer, there's a new analog computing method that slashes AI training energy use. All right, so how many of you remember that when Nvidia first burst on the scene as an AI monster that I invested in Nvidia. Hold on a second. Hello. Hey. Hi. Oh, my breakfast is here. Is it okay if I set it down behind you? Do you have room? Yes, there's room. Okay, so it's time for breakfast, people. I won't eat breakfast in front of you because it might be a messy affair. So I'm going to sign off now. Thank you everybody and we'll keep you updated. I might stream again because I have nothing else to do today. Today I

Episode 3047 ChatWSA 12/19/25

MainContent

d. So if you can get one, you know, if it's within your financial and or other abilities, you should definitely get one because you're going to be competing against people who don't have one. And maybe you're lucky and you get an employer who genuinely doesn't care. There are more of them every day. But the odds of running into somebody who does care, maybe because they have one themselves or they went to the same school or whatever, it's pretty high. So I would say from a maybe a logical perspective, it's not as necessary as it used to be. But if you're looking at it from a strategic employee perspective, yeah, you should get one if you can do it without burdening yourself financially for the rest of your life. Now, you don't want to do it at all costs. You want to do it at a reasonable cost for your resources. But yeah, I would definitely play the advantage if you have the option. You know what Polymarket is? It's one of those betting sites. It's the big betting site. Well, apparently the betting sites are more accurate than opinion polls. So once people put their money on it, they're way better at predicting than if you just say, "Hey, what do you think?" So I guess one of the founders or the CEO was talking about that. And so keep an eye on Polymarket because it's going to tell you more than opinion. However, it makes me ask this question. Don't you think that if you had some way to know who had been really good at predicting in the past that you'd like to see just those people predicting the next thing? Wouldn't that be a lot better? Why would I take the average of people who are terrible at predicting? Meaning that they didn't win anything, you know, because you could see if they ever won anything on Polymarket. Why would I want to see the average of the people who never were right mixed in with the average of the people who were right most of the time? What the hell good is that? Wouldn't it make a lot more sense if you could go to Polymarket and say, "Show me the people who have been right more than 60% of the time on whatever topic it is." Of course that would be better. How about if it's something that maybe is a new category or something, wouldn't you like to see the people who were the most well-informed? Why would I take the average of people who were poorly informed on the topic? Let's say the topic is crypto. Do I really need to see my idiot, well I won't say that, but do I want to see my plumber's opinion on crypto mixed in with David Sachs' opinion? No. No, I just want to see David Sachs' opinion. I don't want to see my plumber's opinion on crypto. So I

Episode 3033 CWSA 12/01/25

MainContent

robably gain more before his legacy looks good and he can argue that it made sense to have the war in the first place because even though he doesn't need to make his population love him, you know, the way American politicians might, he still needs some kind of popular support. So I would say that Ukraine does not look like it could take out Russia's energy infrastructure before Russia could take out Ukraine's infrastructure. And I don't see anything changing that would make Putin want to make peace because all indications are he's slowly gaining and slowly winding down Ukraine and Ukraine is losing support. You know, it's not going to be supported financially forever. So the part that I think I calculated wrong is that I just assumed without thinking about it well enough I guess I just assumed that everybody wants to end war but why would Putin apparently he's not too worried about the number of Russians being killed in the war. So if he doesn't mind that and it's sort of moving in his direction, I can't see any reason he would end the war. And the only thing that I can imagine changing it is something that changed things economically that somehow Russia would allow to happen to them without responding in kind. Don't you think that the United States is holding back quite a bit? Because if we go too far with allowing Ukraine to have all the best weapons and stuff, if we go too far, some of that's going to come back on the homeland. You know, Russia is going to not want to put up with that without responding in kind. So I don't see any way that as long as Putin's in charge, and it looks like he'll remain in charge. So I'm going to re-up my older prediction that there's no way we get a peace within a year because there's just not enough happening that would change the balance of where we are right now. Two out of a thousand ghost tankers. I don't know. That doesn't seem like enough. All right, what else we got going? Well, that ladies and gentlemen is my full show and I appear to be back to full power. I'm a little bit quiet today, but feel my full energy. I was telling people before everybody streamed in here that I'm going to do a separate video maybe today of dad gift ideas for Christmas. I've got some really good dad gift ideas and it's based entirely on things that I have and you know I'm especially happy about them. Scott is wrong. Zelensky is going to get arrested. Well, that's not part of my prediction. I don't have a prediction about Zelensky not getting arrested, but I also don't have one about him getting arrested. I don't think it matters what Ukraine wants or what Zelensky wants. I don't think they're, I think it's between the United States and Russia. And I don't think it matters at all what Zelensky wants. So that's just not part of my prediction at all. Either way, whether he gets arrested or not shouldn't have any effect on whether Putin wants to keep going. Well, you know, I wasn't going to mention the coffee warmer, but maybe I'll add that to the list. Tankers are mostly owned by Greek companies. I don't think that's true that the ghost tankers are mostly owned by Greek. I do believe that there are a lot of Greek register

Episode 3032 CWSA 11/30/25

MainContent

ltaneous sip, and it's going to happen right now. Go. All right. Yeah, everything's a little bit harder today. Why is my iPad not working, doing what I want? Well, there it is. Happy Halloween everybody. You all going to trick or treat tonight? I'll probably get a few hundred people today. So yesterday I had my radiation treatment for one of my cancer spots. It's not a cure. It was just trying to fix the place in my back. Do you want to hear the most alarming story you've ever heard? So the radiation treatment, the one they give has zero pain involved. In other words, you don't feel the radiation. So you don't feel it when it's happening and you don't feel it when it's done really. Yeah, there might be minor side effects or something, but basically you don't feel it unless the position that you have to be in to get it happens to lie on your back in the exact place that it hurts the most. That was my situation. So I didn't know if I could get through the pain. So I wanted to make sure I knew how long it would last so that I was mentally prepared. And I knew it was going to be not just regular pain, but we're talking about feeling like somebody's putting a spear through your chest the entire time. I mean, real pain like you've never felt before in your life. And I knew it would last a while. So I asked them and they said, "Well, it could be 15 minutes to an hour." The doctor said, "15 minutes to an hour of lying completely still while somebody's putting a spear through your chest. And if you don't make it, then you don't have a chance to get rid of the pain that is destroying your ability to walk." So that was my trade-off: take a pain that would be the greatest pain of my life for 15 minutes to an hour, or never deal with the problem to my death. So I decided I could do anything for 15 minutes, and the doctor confirmed that in my particular case it would be 15 minutes. So he said the whole procedure is 15 minutes. So now I understand it's 15 minutes. Right now, how do you understand that? You understand that the procedure is 15 minutes. Very easy. Very, very clear communication, wouldn't you say? So I get under the machine and it immediately, you know, the pain kicks in. And as the techs are walking into the adjacent room where they'll be monitoring me, allegedly, one of them says, "We start by taking X-rays." I think they meant a CAT scan, but they said X-rays to make sure that your body's in the same position that it was when we did the test to see if you'd be, you know, we were testing to see where the tumors were, but you have to be laying in exactly the same position or else the radiation won't get the right place. So they say first we'll take the X-rays. Now what's my first question? Is that on top of the 15 minutes or is that included in the 15 minutes? And I couldn't ask because they were already into the test. So I'm laying there and 15 minutes pass, or what I thought was 15 minutes. So I felt like 15 minutes of the worst pain I've ever endured in my life. And I knew I couldn't go longer, but the 15 minutes were over. And you know what they said next? "Well, we got the X-rays." They hadn't started. They hadn't started the treatment. You know, the 15-minute treatment that I didn't think I could possibly survive. I'd already gone 15 minutes and they hadn't started. And I bailed out. I bailed out. I screamed and I said, "I'm done. No way. I'm not going to go 15 minutes." So they come in and of course they're a little bit distraught because, you know, I've wasted their time. I've wasted the appointment. I didn't get fixed. Didn't get any treatment. No treatment at all. And I just went through the most traumatic experience of my whole life. And it got worse. Do you know what they said then? You ready for this? Then they told me for the first time, for the first time I heard this, the treatment is one minute. The 15 minutes is all that setup that we told you we were doing. The entire process is 15 minutes. You were 60 seconds away from being completely done, but they had miscommunicated so that I thought it was 15 minutes for the process that had not yet started. So I bailed out. So then I said, "Now that's the end of my appointment, right? So now I'm into somebody else's appointment, which means I need to get kicked out and rescheduled." Do you think I let them kick me out and reschedule? No, no. So they rescheduled whoever was after me to some other room, I guess, and I said, "You're going to have to give me the strongest painkillers in the world. There's just no way I can do 15 minutes more of this. So give me whatever you have." So we talked about what was the strongest painkiller that they could give me. And I was already on several. Now, I'm not going to get into the specifics of the painkillers because then you'll go crazy and you'll have your opinions and I don't care. But they gave me something really strong on top of I already had painkillers in me because I was anticipating it. So now I have several, one, two, at least three different painkillers, four maybe, in me at the same time. How much did the painkillers make a difference? Not even a little bit. Not even the slightest bit. The strongest painkillers as you can imagine. It was like there was no painkiller at all. I was just sitting right on an open nerve. But they said because of the first test, they could get it down to six minutes inclusive of the actual radiation. And I thought I could make it six minutes with these new painkillers. I didn't realize at the time that they wouldn't make any difference, but I was like, I can do six minutes. I can do that. So the six minutes starts and when the six minutes is about done, the door opens and I'm like, "Thank you. Thank God they're coming in because I'm done." And then the tech said, "Hold on. We have to adjust your body because you're not in the right place," which means that the whole first six minutes was a nothing, which meant that it was going to be six plus six. So it was really going to be back to 12 minutes. And they had to start again. But the good news was that my original position didn't hurt very much. And I thought, I could definitely get through this because it didn't hurt that much. As soon as they moved me into the same position as the one where I'd been tested, the one that they needed to get me in, absolute terror pain, because it was the position that makes the pain. It wasn't natural pain. It was the position. Now I've got six minutes after the first six minutes after the 15 mi

Episode 3005 CWSA 10/31/25

MainContent

make you think it was really close. And then you don't need to know the details. So totally successful persuasion even though it's at least half. Well the CDC has updated their recommendation for vaccines so to speak. And they want kids to get the chickenpox vaccine separate from the big bunch of vaccines that they usually get that usually includes chickenpox. So apparently there's some new information that says that if you get them separately, that I think you wait a little bit for one but I can't remember which one. If you wait for one you avoid some very well known specific health problems. So is that an upgrade? Do you call this a RFK Junior win? Is that a win for MAHA? I'm going to say yes. Because there's nothing we want more from RFK Jr. than to say can you show us the science? All right now that you showed us the science can you make sure that your policies conform to the science? And what did RFK Jr. do? He showed you the science and then he modified the policy to match the science. That ladies and gentlemen is what we asked for. That is why you like a President Trump that he can have the balls to pick an RFK Jr. This is everything. This is everything. Now you know is there any chance that later they'll modify it and there'll be a new study? Sure. But this is still what we want them to be doing. This is right on point for what we hoped they would do. So this is all good news. And then on top of that they've updated the COVID booster recommendation to they don't recommend it for all adults now. So the COVID booster is only recommended for people who are I guess over 65 or have some specific health issue that they and their doctors decide makes sense. So it's not even about the CDC now for the COVID. It's very much about you and your doctor. You know you can still do what you want but it's between you and your doctor. I like that. Trump is teasing according to Just the News. Misty Severi is writing about this. Trump says he's considering invoking the quote insurrection act in Portland. Now as you know Trump wanted to send in the National Guard to Portland because he thinks there's too much crime happening. Por

Episode 2981 CWSA 10/07/25

Episodes (552)

Showing 1–24 of 552 episodes